The Thursday session is off and stumbling. The 8 MA just stabbed down thru the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart signaling bearish markets for the hours and days ahead. The only way the bulls can fight back would be with a wildly strong price move higher in the minutes ahead. Keybot the Quant is now bearish from SPX 1435. Copper is collapsing, the JJC crumbled over the last couple days, and Dr. Copper typically leads the way. Volatility remains elevated above 17. UTIL is at 459 remaining under the critical bull-bear line at 466. The TRIN is 1.00 exactly at the neutral line not favoring bulls or bears today. Thus, the bears are regaining momo but the broad indexes remain stubborn. The bulls continue to provide the benefit of the doubt for a happy outcome for the fiscal cliff negotiations. The vote by the House on Plan B occurs this evening after the close. AAPL is a couple bucks negative. Nasdaq is moving more negatively than the SPX today (tech is leading the broad markets lower) which is slightly more bear-friendly overall.
Note Added 12/20/12 at 1:08 PM: The VIX is at 17.58. The 200-day MA is 17.44 so watch to see if volatility remains above here at today's close, if so that will be a feather for the bear's cap. The 8 MA remains under the 34 MA on the 30-minute chart but the bulls are trying to curl the 8 MA upwards. TRIN is exactly 1.00 showing no preference for bulls or bears today. Tech leads the broad indexes lower, bearish, however, the RUT (small caps) are leading to the upside, bullish. Leader Reid spoke a short time ago but the air waves do not pay much attention to him anymore since he repeats the same mantra, "....blah... blah... blah...republican's fault....blah....blah... republicans fault... blah..." Speaker Boehner is on deck in a few minutes. The broad indexes are frozen flat today, perhaps Boehner will create movement. The volume is very light today, the NYSE is only running at about 70% of a day's average expected volume. Apparently, many traders are already nipping into the eggnog and starting the holiday celebration early.
Note Added 12/20/12 at 1:29 PM: Speaker Boehner is talking, the SPX dropped three handles but popped back up again. Same old news, so markets continue to expect a solution in the near term. A potential bear flag on the 15-minute and 30-minute charts would target 1423-1424 if price fails at this 1438-1439 level. TRIN drops to 0.92 which is bull friendly and the SPX shows buoyancy. Silver, gold and copper are all out behind the woodshed receiving severe beatings. The euro is flat at 1.3238. WTIC oil is at 90 and Brent oil is at 110, whole numbers that may serve as pivots. The beat goes on for a slow, sluggish, low-volume day.
Note Added 12/20/12 at 1:55 PM: Markets receive a jolt of adrenaline and pop higher; the SPX bounces to 1442. Interestingly, the VIX remains at the highs of the day. Either the SPX, or the VIX, one of them, is wrong. The bullish move is nullifying the bear flag pattern mentioned above and the bulls have curled the 8 MA upwards to send it towards the 34 MA on the 30-minute chart. TRIN is 0.82. Note how the drop in the TRIN from 1.00 to 0.82 over the last half-hour creates the market buoyancy.
Gold down, SLV killed, JJC killed...can this mean DEflation? how could that be with all the printed money?
ReplyDeleteType "Inflation Deflation Indicator" into the search box above to bring up prior articles Keystone has posted. Watch the 10-year yield for clues as it ran up thru 1.80% everyone thinks inflation is finally here, but now, back below 1.80%. If yields move lower that is disinflation and deflation, if yields move higher that is inflation.
ReplyDeleteThe global economy is in slowdown, hence the weakness in commodities and copper. With all nation is now performing QE it is a race to the bottom and it is hard for any one country to gain momo from all the money-printing. When QE1 and QE2 occurred, the Fed was basically the only one printing so they were wildly successful. Keystone continues to forecast disinflation and deflation and the inflation everyone is expecting may not occur for a few more years. The 10-year yield may travel flat across 2% for the next few years.
gold is a scam like buying guns, like buying eagle limited edition plates, useless in the the new world. for every gun you'll need a tank, for every limited edition plate you'll need a house you can afford, for every gold bar you'll need a years's worth of fresh water fuel and internet service.
ReplyDeleteWatch commodities, $CRB and $GTX, GTX will provide real-time numbers, CRB is now an end of day print. CRB is 295, as a general rule, under 300 is disinflationary. Under 290 is big trouble since a deflationary event is approaching. QE1 and QE2 had to occur to stop the deflationary spirals which started to occur with CRB falling under 280, 270 and lower, that funk you do not return from, simply ask Japan about their lost two decades. Thus, use the CRB as a guide, losing a few more bucks under 290 signals larger trouble for markets moving forward.
ReplyDeleteWe almost *have* to have 9 to 18 months of deflation just so Ben's inflate-us-out-of-debt plan can work after that. C'mon Ben, just let the markets drop...
ReplyDeleteFunny how desperate and how punch in the negative info BEARS get when the markets does what it just does. You guys look for anything , anything, to justify a collapse. It's really funny. TA, "fiscal Tiff", etc etc. It's just a lost cause this last year and next, hate to tell ya. Come on grasp and some other straw? KS, why is copper not helping? Apple? anyone? Are you there or out the window...
ReplyDeleteYour boss is using the same TA we are anon lol...when he sends you out on your modem to broadcast to various websites. Will you be checking back in January?
ReplyDeletewha? Zig did you not cover your shorts two days ago? I bet you didn't...wow, suck ay
ReplyDeleteWhat's up with the VIX?
ReplyDeleteIt keeps rising.
Hope you held your RIMM KS, nice call
ReplyDelete"House GOP puts off vote on 'Plan B'"
ReplyDeleteS&P Mar13 -22.40
Fiiiiinally. Market has tought me a valuable lesson this past year. Everything is spectacular until the last hour.
The VIX gave it away. VIX +10% while S&P +7 and above. Everyone was betting on the cliff even though indexes were rising. Quite a sight.
Yep, that was an interesting evening, the S&P's fell from 1442 to 1391, -3.5%, in a couple minutes, then recovered to the 1420's. With both the VIX and SPX running higher yesterday, one was wrong, looks like the SPX was wrong. Watch the 200 EMA on the 30-minute chart at 1417. If you are bullish, you want the SPX to hold 1417, and you can have a jolly holiday, if the SPX loses 1417, the bulls will be drowning their troubles with eggnog while laying on the dirty linoleum floor.
ReplyDelete