Keystone's Key Events and Market Movers Week of 5/21/12

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Keystone presents the following underlying market currents, sometimes subtle, sometimes turbulent, that move global markets in real time.  The key dates and times below typically correspond to market pivot points.

Key Dates and Times for the Week Ahead:

·         Monday, 5/21/12:  Look for any news in the communiqué from the G8 Summit and/or NATO meeting. New moon and eclipse overnight; typically markets sell off about two-thirds of the time in front of the new moon each month, and they did last week, but this period is now past. Markets tend to move the opposite direction on the Monday after OpEx Friday, thus, with the market drop on Friday this tool would expect market buoyancy to start the week. The European debt crisis drama continues. Greece, Spain, Hungary and Italy are the major current worries.  Greece’s elections are scheduled for 6/17/12, a long four weeks away. Watch the European spreads closely such as the Spain-Germany 10-Year Yield Spread; higher spreads mean increased turmoil and trouble. The Senate is in session but not the House. Congress is headed towards a light schedule or not in session over the coming couple weeks so this is market bullish. Watch for further China triple R cuts that would pump markets higher with liquidity. The triple R cut a week ago was a dud; China will need to cut actual rates to create a strong market pop. Earnings continue this week but most of the heavy hitters have already reported.  About 70% of the earnings have beat lowered expectations which is in line but the lackluster guidance, as well as top line revenues that disappoint, are not providing bullish oomph.  Fed’s Lockhart speaks. Chicago Fed National Activity Index 8:30 AM. FB drama should continue. Earnings: CPB, GRZ, HAST, JDAS, LOW, NDSN, TDW, URBN.

·         Tuesday, 5/22/12: Fed’s Lockhart speaks.  Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index and Existing Home Sales 10 AM. 2-Year Note Auction 1 PM.  Earnings: ADI, AZO, BBY, CNET, CPWR, DELL, DSW, DY, GES, MDT, NTAP, RL, TTWO, VTUS, WSM.

·         Wednesday, 5/23/12:  Fed’s Kocherlakota speaks. Mortgage Purchase Applications 7 AM.  FHFA House Price Index and New Home Sales 10 AM. Oil Inventories 10:30 AM. 5-Year Note Auction 1 PM.  Markets are typically bullish for the two days in front of a three-day holiday weekend. Earnings: AEO, BIG, BRS, EV, EVER, GILT, HPQ, HRL, P, SABA, SIGM, STP, SCMR, SNPS, TOL, TSL, VLNC, ZLC.

·         Thursday, 5/24/12: China Flash PMI, France, Germany and Eurozone Flash PMI's. Durable Goods Orders and Jobless Claims 8:30 AM.  Natty Inventories 10:30 AM. Kansas City Manufacturing Index 11 AM. 7-Year Note Auction 1 PM. Fed Balance Sheet and Money Supply 4:30 PM.  Earnings: COST, HNZ, JKS, MNRO, OTIV, RUE, SHIP, TARO, TIF, PAY.

·         Friday, 5/25/12: Consumer Sentiment 9:55 AM. Three-day holiday weekend on tap. Markets are closed on Monday so traders must adjust positions now that remain in place until Tuesday. Earnings: GIGA, ROSG.

·         Monday,5/28/12: U.S. markets are closed in Observance of Memorial Day.

·         Tuesday,5/29/12: U.S. markets reopen for trading. Consumer Confidence 10 AM.

·         Thursday,5/31/12: EOM.  Jobless Claims and GDP 8:30 AM.

·         Friday,6/1/12: Personal Income and Outlays and Jobs Report 8:30 AM. Construction Spending and ISM Manufacturing Index 10 AM. ISM impacts energy markets.

·         Wednesday,6/6/12: Beige Book 2 PM.

·         Thursday,6/7/12: Jobless Claims 8:30 AM.

·         Wednesday,6/13/12: PPI (Producer Price Index) and Retail Sales 8:30 AM. 10-Year Note Auction 1 PM.

·         Thursday,6/14/12: CPI (Consumer Price Index) and Jobless Claims 8:30 AM.

·         Friday, 6/15/12: OpEx. Industrial Production 9:15 AM.  Consumer Sentiment 9:55 AM.

·         Sunday, 6/17/12: Greece elections.