Thursday, May 24, 2012

European Bond Yield Summary 5/24/12

10-Year Yields:
Greece 30.29%
Portugal 12.45%
Hungary 8.62%
Spain 6.20%
Italy 5.64%
Belgium 3.17%
France 2.62%
Austria 2.32%

Netherlands 1.84%
U.K. 1.76%
U.S. 1.72%
Finland 1.69%
Germany 1.37%

The Euro Summit ends with leaders no closer to solutions. Agreement was reached to keep Greece in the union but on the Eurobond concept, Germany continues to state that Eurobonds will not work while the other countries want Germany to capitulate. The euro fell under 1.26 yesterday the lowest print since summer 2010.  The Netherlands and Finland are printing record low 10-year yields at 1.84% and 1.69%, respectively. Finland is now a more attractive location to stash your dough than the U.S. or U.K. Germany continues to print records at a ridiculously low 1.37%.  On the shorter duration German notes, rates are at zero percent so folks are placing money in Germany fully content with receiving no return on that money but knowing that the principal should remain in tact.  As Will Rogers said years ago, "I am not concerned about a return ON my money, I am concerned about a return OF my money!"

The HSBC China Flash PMI overnight is 48.7 showing several months of contraction (under 50) occurring and a string of contractions that are matching the troubled 2008-2009 years. France and Germany PMI's are weak as well.  U.K. GDP drops more than estimated. The weak data hurt the Asian equity markets and are keeping the European markets in a malaise today as the bond yields for the troubled nations rise.

Greece blows out above 30%; a country crumbling into dust. Portugal is at Keystone's 12.5% concern level so this country will need another bailout in short order. Hungary continues to be a country no one talks about as it blows out higher now at 8.62%. Spain remains over 6% but Italy remains under 6%. France remains well under 3% which helps keep heads somewhat calm. The European debt crisis is reaching a climax.  The Greece vote is 6/17/12 which creates a book end for the mess. It appears, for better or worse, that the story will be written for Europe over the next three weeks.

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