3/26/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 2:18 PM EST at SPX 1412; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 12.2%; Keybot algo is up 3.8%; Keybot actual trading is up 5.5%. Stay on guard for a whipsaw.
3/22/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 10:51 AM EST at SPX 1392; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 10.7%; Keybot algo is up 5.2%; Keybot actual trading is up 6.8%.
3/8/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 12:04 PM at SPX 1364; whipsaw occurs; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 8.4%; Keybot algo is up 3.1%; Keybot actual trading is up 5.8%.
3/6/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 12:18 PM at SPX 1343; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 6.8%; Keybot algo is up 4.7%; Keybot actual trading is up 7.4%.
2/16/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 1:10 PM at SPX 1356; whipsaw occurs; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 7.8%; Keybot algo is up 5.7%; Keybot actual trading is up 8.2%.
2/14/12: Keybot the Quant flipped to the short side at 2:30 PM at SPX 1342; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is up 6.7%; Keybot algo is up 6.7%; Keybot actual trading is up 10.2%.
1/1/12: The new year begins. For 2011, the SPX Benchmark is flat finishing up 0%; Keybot algo finished the year up 33%; Keybot actual trading ended the year up 37%. Keybot begins 2012 remaining long. The new year begins at SPX 1258.
12/20/11: Keybot the Quant flipped to the long side at 2:49 PM at SPX 1240; for the year thus far SPX Benchmark is down 1.4%; Keybot algo is up 31.2%; Keybot actual trading is up 35.5%.
KS, it's frustrating for us shorts to see Keybot whipsaw a few times already this year. I'm beginning to feel like throwing in the towel and that we'll never get anymore downside the rest of the year. Once again, the phrase "Don't fight the Fed!" holds true again. Bernanke just will not allow for a natural market. Why did you buy SSO even though it's negatively diverged? Are you still adding VXX or traded out of it? Central banks win again. The dollar will always remain weak because of easing and more expected easing being priced in. Have you ever seen a market go up like this w/o any significant pullback in the history of the markets? I hope you can make some sense of this market for us KS. Take care.
ReplyDeleteSteve
Hello Steve, even the charts do not have events like this morning priced in. Bernanke knows just what to say at the right time, he is talking after lunch again tomorrow so more excitement is ahead.
ReplyDeleteFor Keybot, yep, the whipsaws are frustrating but they have a purpose, they serve as automatic stops and reflect the exact nature of the markets. it would not be surprising to see things reverse again just as fast. The SPX is in the neighborhood of the 1425 gap fill now. Keybot continues to focus on copper and commodities so bears need to see a stronger dollar, Bernanke beat the dollar with a baseball bat this morning.
Keystone was slapped hard on all his shorts today, sold TYP to simply lighten up, will probably enter QID or PSQ tomorrow, but the SSO was added as a quickie trade, ideally to exit tomorrow. Nothing has changed, markets are showing all indications of topping now, the SPXA150R over 90 is a very attractive place to short the markets from.
There are lots more moving parts than Bernanke. 'Don't fight the Fed' is correct but cycling into the short side more and more each day as this market top rolls over during the last month continues to appear prudent. Europe and China can ruin the party at any time, China PMI will hit Friday night. Confirmation of any trouble will send copper plummeting.
The times that you notice this type of odd market behavior is at significant tops so its always darkest before the light, but, as always in trading, sometimes it is always darkest before the lights go completely out.
NYAD and TRIN should cause at least a small move back. There are four days remaining in the month and quarter. Watch to see if Keybot flips short again and also check the SPXA150R each evening to see if it prints under 90 to show that the market selling is beginning again.
AAPL was flat today and received a 1 PM goose, in fact that 1 PM to 2 PM period, is interesting, the thrust that finally had Keybot go long this afternoon, interesting move in AAPL. Goosing that at 1 PM was all the markets needed to move that extra step higher. So watch Apple, any ten point move in AAPL now will equate to a 1% market move, either way it moves.