If bullish, you have to hold on to these current JJC levels and move higher. If bearish, you want failure here and now since the broad markets will accelerate the selling substantially if you see JJC 48.90 fail. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on aything you read here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Note Added 3/20/12 at 12:27 PM: The 20 and 200-day MA's have failed. Price is now at 49.05 fighting to hold support at the 50-day MA at 49.04. High drama ongoing. A loss of the 50-day MA support and then the 48.90 level, only 14 pennies away, will usher in accelerated broad market selling with the SPX stabbing well down into the 1390's if not the 1380's.
KS, are you adding more VXX? It's reached a new 52-week low. Take care.
ReplyDeleteSteve
JJC price closed at 49.24.
ReplyDeleteFurther to the VXX.... KS, you do such a good job of making things understandable for us. Can you explain what this fellow at Seekingalpha is saying about VXX for Wednesday: The VXX tomorrow will be composed of 100% April futures so it could move big up or down. The March open interest of VIX contracts are going to try their hardest to have a March settlement toward the 17 line in order to save cash for those who sold the 100K+ 17 strike puts. Additionally the 100K+ strike 20 puts also will probably draw March settlement higher at tomorrow's open.
ReplyDeleteHello Steve, all the positions shown for short-term trading (Positions and Picks page) continue to be added to as well as others brought on. VXX is a dangerous ETF and many times does not move inverse to the markets as it should. TVIX tends to move in a more expected fashion but also dangerous. Keystone traded TVIX and took the profits and will look to reenter perhaps tomorrow as well.
ReplyDeleteHellow Anon, yes, 49.27, so watch JJC 48.90 tomorrow, and check in if Keystone is updating since this number is constantly recalculated, so if JJC loses 37 pennies you will notice substantial market weakness, otherwise the bulls are in control.
Hello Weaver, the VIX is designed to be a consistent 30-day benchmark for volatility and to perform this task the VIX is calculated as a weighted average of options expiring on two different dates. One day each month the weighting is dedicated entirely on one side of the ledger since it is exactly 30 days prior to the OpEx day. OpEx in April is 4/20/12 so counting backwards puts us at tomorrow. VIX options settle on these Wednesday's 30 days before the following months OpEx Friday's. So he is just making reference to the expiry of VIX options on the one Wednesday each month (which is tomorrow). So tomorrow is where the weighted average of the SPX option prices expiring in exactly 30 days (4/20/12) account for all the weight in the VIX calculation, so he is simply highlighting this fact and that a wild move may occur.