On 2/25/12, Saturday, G-20 finance ministers and central bank governors meet in Mexico City. The IMF wants more money to help create a strong support system for Europe, a sturdy firewall, or ring fence, where the risks of contagion can be diminished. This is what Geithner is encouraging. But, Germany must continually pony up more and more cash to support the countries that enjoyed years and years of wine and roses. Thus, the soap opera playing out this weekend is LaGarde, the IMF, wrestling with Germany as the main event, and, in general, Europe and world nations meeting to find solutions to the European debt crisis and try to establish a strong firewall to prevent contagion, especially in reference to Italy and Spain.
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On 2/27/12, Monday, the communiqué of the G-20 leaders from Mexico City said a decision by Eurozone leaders is required to boost their own firewall before the IMF can step in with resources. Chancellor George Osborne remarked, “We have to see the color of the Eurozone’s money first—and, quite frankly, that hasn’t happened. Until it does, there’s no question of extra money from Britain or probably anyone else.” Germany is worried that Italy and Spain will lose their desire to place their houses in order without maintaining pressure on these countries, as well as Greece and Portugal. Markets rally as the opening bell is sounded. Dow moves above and below 13K and closes below 13K when the bell rings. Oil pulls back from highs, WTIC peaking at about 110 and Brent about 125.
On 2/28/12, Tuesday, futures are up strongly. Germany approves the Greece bailout without issues as many had expected. S&P lowers Greece to ‘selective default’ but markets have little response to the news, this move was expected. The economic data and housing data sours the markets but the Consumer Confidence boosts the bull’s spirits. AAPL takes off to the upside after the open and keeps the broad markets elevated all day long. Apple is the markets now. Markets move in a tight range of 1368-1372 and close at the high end as traders await the LTRO2 decision overnight. The LTRO1 program has greatly helped Spain and Italy recover over the last two months. The SPX closes above the 2011 intraday closing high at 1370.58 and the Dow Industrials close above 13K. GS is served with a Wells Notice concerning subprime securities.
On 2/29/12, Wednesday, the month ends, EOM, with the odd-ball leap year day today. The LTRO2 news meets expectations offering about 500 billion to 800 banks. The news appears to be priced into the markets. The Italy and Spain yields move sideways to lower, reducing contagion fears, since both are too big to fail and too big to bailout. Spain has now covered about 40% of their 2012 funding requirements which is a positive for Europe. The U.S. GDP prints a 3% handle which encourages the bulls. Chairman Bernanke testifies in front of Congress, and the markets turn sour as Bernanke does not mention QE3. Traders fear that the punch bowl of liquidity that is creating the broad market rally is ending. The dollar spikes higher and gold and silver plunge lower. The markets finish down on the day but the bearishness is contained. This was the best February since 1998. The Nasdaq punched up and over 3000 today before rolling over and falling on it sword. AAPL places new highs again, now in the 540’s, and is clearly propping up the broad markets.
On 3/1/12, Thursday, the China PMI data is over 50 indicating expansion but the HSBC China PMI, which is slightly more credible, is under 50 indicating contraction and weakness over the last five months. Many other countries release PMI data showing an unimpressive overall picture for the global economy. The reaction to commodities markets is muted. ISM Manufacturing Index is weaker than expected but markets remain elevated all day long. U.S. auto sales are surprisingly stronger than expected with sales matching 2008 numbers. In the afternoon, news hits that a major pipeline explosion has occurred in Saudi Arabia. Brent Oil jumps to 128 and WTIC Oil pops above 110. The broad markets start to drift lower but recover the losses before the close as word comes out that the Saudi news is a rumor and not true. European leaders meet in Brussels today and tomorrow to discuss funding for the ESM (European Stability Mechanism). Germany retail sales unexpectedly fall.
On 3/2/12, Friday, E.U. leaders sign a ‘fiscal compact’ that will come into effect 1/1/13 calling it a turning point. Other Euro leaders continue to stress the need for strong firewalls. Italy and Spain 10-year yields are under 5%. Portugal 10’s, however, continues to blow out and move towards 14%. The YELP IPO occurs. Markets drift sideways and end the day slightly down. The RUT (Russell 2000 Small Caps) drops sharply during the trading session making traders standup and notice. The ink is barely dry on the ‘fiscal compact’ document when Spain announces they will not be able to follow it exactly. Spain yields start to climb in the afternoon and the Spain 10-year moves above Italy. After the close, Moody’s downgrades Greece following S&P’s previous move. The rating agencies release these downgrades on Friday evening’s to avoid market drama.
On 3/3/12, Saturday, the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), a national advisory body, begins. The Eurozone unemployment rate hits almost 11% this week, the highest since 1999. Italy unemployment rate is over 9%, the highest in over ten years. At the same time, inflation in the Euro area is at 2.7%, spending 15 months above the ECB-targeted 2% level. France’s joblessness rises to 9.4%.
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On 3/5/12, Monday, the Chinese National People’s Congress (NPC), the national legislature, begins meetings. Japan 30-Year Bond Auction. Factory Orders and ISM Non-Mfg Index.
On 3/6/12, Tuesday, Super Tuesday Election Day.
On 3/7/12, Wednesday, ADP Employment Report. Productivity and Costs. Oil Inventories.
On 3/8/12, Thursday, Full Moon. China CPI. BOE and ECB Rate Decisions. Jobless Claims. Natty Inventories.
On 3/9/12, Friday, Greece debt swap results. Jobs Report. International Trade. Wholesale Trade.
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On 3/12/12, Monday, Euro Finance Ministers meet in Brussels. 3-Year Note Auction. Treasury Budget.
On 3/13/12, Tuesday, IMF meets in Washington and decides its contribution to the Euro woes. Retail Sales. Business Inventories. 10-Year Note Auction. FOMC Meeting.
On 3/14/12, Wednesday, target date for Greece and its creditors to sign the new lending agreement. Import and Export prices. Chairman Bernanke speaks. Oil Inventories. 30-Year Bond Auction.
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