Bitcoin proponents have been beaten this year. The sky was the limit for bitcoin at the end of last year into January but that is when the wheels fell off. Bitcoin trends lower ever since.The negativity around cybercurrencies is rampant. The taxi cab driver said he would never touch bitcoin even with a 10-foot pole.
As is typically the case, the height of negativity usually hints that a recovery is on tap. The daily chart reinforces this idea. The green lines show the overbot conditions, falling wedge, and universal positive divergence across all indicators which are bullish signals. Bitcoin tagged the lower standard deviation band for the last six weeks so the middle band at 6852, and falling, is firmly on the table.
Bitcoin is set to begin a recovery bounce. The weekly chart is showing mixed indicators with both positive divergence and weak and bleak behavior. This hints that the charts are agreeable to a nice recovery bounce in the daily time frame but then weakness will likely reenter, say, about 2 to 4 weeks down the road after the near-term bounce occurs. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Note Added Wednesday, 7/4/18: Bitcoin is at 6690 receiving the possie d bounce and tagging the middle band.
The XLF is down for 13 consecutive down days for the first time in history. The descending triangle, a bearish pattern, jumps out at you. Last Thanksgiving, financials gapped higher from 26.60 to 26.80 creating a key support level for the next seven months and counting.
The XLF failed below the base of the triangle at 26.80. The vertical side is 3 bucks so the downside target is 23.80 and this lines up with the support from last September. Price usually back kisses once it fails so a move back up to 26.60-26.80 would be expected where XLF will decide to either bounce, or die.
The oversold RSI, stochastics and money flow are agreeable to at least a dead-cat bounce. Ditto the MACD line and histogram displaying positive divergence. Price has violated the lower standard deviation band so the middle band at 27.37, and falling, is on the table. There is lots of near-term downside momo, however, and the money flow is weak and bleak. The selling volume during the 13-day record-setting slide is robust (purple circle).
XLF will likely chop sideways for a few days with the back kiss of the triangle base line in play. The weekly chart is also showing indicators mixed between possie d and neggie d hinting at sideways chop in the weekly time frame. The yield curve flattens with the 2-10 spread falling to 31 bips today a decade low. KRE, the regional banks, are hit more than the larger money center banks as the yield curve flattens. If Treasury yields move higher (steeper yield curve), XLF will likely recover in this daily time frame. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Note Added Wednesday, 7/4/18: Banks chop around sideways after the stress test results with a downward bias. XLF is at 26.40 spending time the last couple weeks back-kissing the triangle base line and the 50-week MA at 26.94 which is now major resistance. The 2-10 yield spread briefly printed 29 basis points. XLF daily chart is set up with possie d so a bounce for banks is likely in the daily time frame. The weakness in the XLF weekly chart, however, should resurface after a few-day rally for the financials.
Gold prints a death cross with the 50-day MA stabbing down through the 200-day MA forecasting trouble ahead for the shiny metal. Typically, however, price bounces once the death cross forms. The RSI and stoch's are oversold and agreeable to a bounce. The stochastics and histogram are positively diverged wanting price to bounce in this daily time frame.
The MACD line and money flow are weak and bleak. Thus, gold will likely bounce for a day or so, but then roll back over and print lower lows for the couple days or so after that. At that point in time, a bottom will likely occur for gold in this daily time frame and price will stage a relief rally. The gold weekly chart points to more weakness ahead so the bounce will likely be short-lived say a few days or week or two. If the 50 remains under the 200, gold will remain sick going forward. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
The Alphabet (Google) monthly chart is similar to Apple and Facebook topping out with negative divergence. Price came up for a matching high but the indicators go neggie d indicating that price is out of upside fuel. The multi-month and likely multi-year top is in for Alphabet like Apple and Facebook. The upper standard deviation band was violated so the middle band, the 20-month MA, at 975, and rising, is on the table as a downside target as the weeks and months play out.This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Netflix has been on fire at least until yesterday's -6.5% drubbing. Despite the three-day lull, NFLX remains up +9.4% this month. The red lines display negative divergence for the RSI, stochastics and money flow that want a pull back. Ditto the overbot conditions and ominous rising wedge. The MACD and histogram remain long and strong, however, similar to the Amazon monthly chart. NFLX would be expected to retreat but then recover to print a matching high again say a month or two out. At that time the MACD may negatively diverge which would identify the long-term top in NFLX.
NFLX tags the upper standard deviation band so the middle band at 208, and rising, is on the table going forward.
For the FAANG stocks, AAPL and FB are cooked. AMZN will likely top out in July-September. Ditto NFLX. The GOOGL chart is weak like Apple and Facebook. On the multi-month basis, the long-term top is likely in for Apple, Facebook and Alphabet (Google) right now. Amazon will top out next say in July-September and then Netflix will likely top out last in August-October. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Amazon leads the broad market higher with investors buying with both hands. Aunt Nellie is caught up in the joy and places her entire life savings in Amazon stock. Amazon is topping out in the monthly time frame but not yet. Note the long and strong MACD line and the money flow has a bit of short-term momentum.
The red liens show negative divergence with the RSI, histogram, stochastics and money flow. The RSI, stoch's and money flow are overbot agreeable to a pull back. The MACD is in the stratosphere and will need to negatively diverge to identify the multi-month and multi-year top for AMZN.
A jog move would be expected going forward (down-up-down). AMZN will likely retreat in the monthly time frame due to the overbot conditions and neggie d with the RSI and stochastics, however, price will then likely come up once more to satisfy the long and strong MACD line. If you enjoyed big gains in Amazon, you can begin scaling out say in thirds. Sell one-third now, one-third in a month and one-third the month after that.
Price will likely sink in June-July, then recover to print a matching all-time high say in the July-August time frame (the jog move) and then roll over August-September. The multi-month, and likely multi-year, top will be in for AMZN say in the July-September time frame. Amazon shareholders will not be thankful when they sit down at the Thanksgiving table. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Facebook has been a stellar stock for the last few years. CEO Zuckerberg is teflon weathering the storm from each scandal that comes along. Facebook steps on privacy issues and anyone participating in the social internet platform must realize your personal information is now in cyberspace forever and accessible to anyone.
The dark maroon lines show that Facebook topped out in January and it appeared that this was the top for the social internet darling. However, price recovers and prints a new high. This is very surprising behavior and would not be typically expected. Facebook is a special case. It owns Instagram that is gaining greatly in popularity. Investors likely surmise that the sky is the limit for FB with such a valuable Instagram franchise under its wings. However, trading is all about what is priced-into the stock at any given time and the monthly chart says the Instagram joy is likely priced-in.
The red lines show the negative divergence across all indicators and the overbot RSI and stochastics. The doji candlestick hints at a trend change lower. Due to the upside acceleration, there is short-term momentum, so price may chop in this elevated area for a couple weeks but the monthly chart indicates that the multi-month and likely multi-year top is in for Facebook. Zuck will be crying in his eggnog come Christmas. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Keystone has been warning about the topping process with Apple over recent months. The MACD line was long and strong so that had to negatively diverge to join the other chart indicators and signal that the multi-month and multi-year top is in for Apple. The current price for AAPL may not be seen again for many months and perhaps years.
The MACD flattens as price prints a high at 194+ (neggie d) so Apple is out of fuel for further upside. The red lines show the negative divergence in play, ominous rising wedge and overbot RSI and stochastics all bearish factors. In addition, price is elevated above the moving averages for the last few years and desperately needs a mean reversion lower.
The expectation was for price to print in the 185-197 area tagging the top standard deviation line since the MACD line was long and strong. This occurs. The middle band, also the 20-month MA, at 153 is now on the table going forward. Just think, price will need to revert back to below the 200-week MA probably a couple or three years in the future.
If you enjoyed big gains, or any gains, in Apple over the last few weeks, months and years, ring the cash register and stay away from AAPL here on out. The AAPL monthly chart says its over. Collapses from rising wedges can be quite dramatic. Sell your AAPL shares to Warren Buffett, CNBC commentator Jim Cramer and the other Apple cheerleaders. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
The euro prints a death cross so the US dollar index prints a golden cross with the 50-day MA crossing up through the 200-day MA (the euro and dollar move inversely to one another). Typically, price would be expected to drop after the golden cross but the dollar will trend higher for weeks to come if the 50 remains above the 200. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
The euro prints a death cross with the 50-day MA falling below the 200-day MA. As typically occurs, price will likely bounce after the death cross. If the 50 remains under the 200, the euro will continue trending lower for the weeks to come. Euro bulls need to move price higher to swing the 50-day MA upwards.
The euro failed out of the sideways symmetrical triangle in April. The vertical side of the triangle is about 5 handles so the failure at 122.4 targets 117.4 which was achieved in May. The euro chops sideways over the last month. Of course, since the euro prints a death cross the US dollar index prints a golden cross with the 50-day MA crossing up through the 200-day MA (the euro and dollar move inversely to one another). This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
