SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Sideways Symmetrical Triangle; Sideways Channel; Federal Reserve Rate Decision and Start of Important Tech Earnings Tomorrow

The SPX daily chart shows the diamond pattern that has been interesting to watch but did not lead anywhere. Price broke out higher but did not confirm an all-out breakout above 7610-ish. The SPX then leaks lower, chopping sideways, extending the right-hand side of the diamond pattern. More importantly now, the brown sideways symmetrical triangle is in play.

Note how price broke up and out of the sideways triangle but could not poke above the rigid resistance of the upper rail of the sideways orange channel. The SPX then staggers lower, returning inside the triangle and now testing the bottom rail of the triangle.

Sideways triangles typically exhibit an interesting behavior. If they break out higher, like above, but then fail, and return to the inside of the triangle, what follows next is typically a failure out the bottom of the triangle. Conversely, if price would fail out the bottom of the triangle, but then rally again and return to the inside of the triangle, price will typically then pop out the top and rally. Currently, we have the former situation.

However, there are a lot of stock market crosscurrents right now. The green lines show positive divergence for the chart indicators for the last four days of equal price lows. The MACD line wants to see another lower low in price, that favors the outcome explained in the previous paragraph, but the other indicators would like to see price bounce now.

The Federal Reserve rate decision is tomorrow when Wizard Warsh will bring the tablets down from On High and tell traders how to trade. Also, key tech earnings begin after the closing bell and continue on Thursday. This is a crap-shoot. Anything can happen.

The vertical side of the triangle pattern is from 7250 to 7625 so that is 375 points difference. Sometimes, it is also wise to look at the vertical side that is one touch in and that is from 7275 to 7600 a 325 difference. In France, pronounced Fraunce, where men comment on the differences between men and women and proclaim, "viva le differaunce!" Thus, if price breaks down from the triangle from here, call it 7390, the downside target would be 7015 to 7065. Conversely, a breakout up and out of the triangle at 7460 would target 7785 to 7835.

The blue line through the heart of the channel at 7440 carries clout. So does the triangle and channel lines and then the June lows and highs. Also the overhead resistance at the 50-day MA at 7470 and 20-day MA R at 7492.

The drama will likely start to intensify in the afternoon tomorrow. Price begins the day at 7429. Bears win if price stays below 7440 and then fails the triangle at 7390. That will usher in negativity and a test of the lower rail of the channel at 7360, and then the next test is 7270. If that fails, the door is wide open to 7015-7065.

If there is happy talk tomorrow, and the SPX recovers above 7440, the bulls will start to puff their chests out. If price breaks up and out of the triangle at 7460, a rally will be in full swing. Price will next target the upper channel rail at 7570 that was formidable resistance 2 weeks ago. The next test would be 7610 and then onward and upward to 7785-7835.

Price violated the lower standard deviation band so a move back up to the middle band, that is also the 20-day MA at 7492, is on the table. You may see this occur tomorrow morning as traders bide time until Prophet Warsh comes down from On High with the tablets. The triangle keeps squeezing in tight so there will be a winner and loser decided this week. Winners and Losers. Which one will you be today?

King Donnie Chump remains a loser with the Iran War. Trumpski stopped the 2-week bombing campaign as officials were concerned about munition stockpiles. Iran then says it will stop hostilities if the US remains quiet. Of course, Donnie then proclaims that Iran wants to make a deal, folks, they are begging to make a deal, they are saying sir, please stop the bombing, we will do what you want. What a joke. An orange-headed joke. A poll shows that 3 in 5 Americans think Chump is bloviating and lying when he spews about the Iran War. He is not fooling anyone most of all Iran.

Everything is different going forward, folks, we are in the new Global Drone War Era ushered in by Donnie Chump. If stocks collapse, or if yields pop tomorrow on the Fed news, Donnie may panic again and force some type of market action saying the bond market is yippie. A 30-year yield above 5.20% would be problematic. We need Caroline to sing Yip Yip Yow.

This news hits right now in real-time. Iran launches a surprise missile attack against US forces. Yeah, sure, Donnie, Iran is begging for a deal. Sure they are, chump. It sounds like King Donnie is the one begging for a deal. The US cannot bomb Iran into oblivion and send 90 million people into famine. At the same time, Iran has the killer drones, and missiles, to keep firing at US forces and control the Strait of Hormuz. Donnie Chump is in over his orange head and does not know what to do.

The trading week should heat up starting after lunch tomorrow. The Fed news and then tech yearnings the next 2 days will either exalt the stock market opening the door to a party orgy towards SPX 8K, or, open the gates of Hell and usher-in comeuppance time like the dotcom bubble in 1999-2000. Chips are taking the pipe these days. If you bot into the semiconductor stocks on the long side over the last 3 months, you are either flat or have lost money. You chased the shiny object like a chump, and now you are bag-holding sucka. You were the bigger fool. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 8:05 PM EST: Brent crude oil opens for trading popping over +3% due to the Iran attack. Note how Iran staged that attack knowing that the oil markets would open minutes later sending oil prices higher. Iran is playing Donnie Chump like a Stradivarius. You surely recognize Pachelbel's Canon in D.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish

Keystone's trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips back to the long side at SPX 7479 yesterday. Watch utes, volatility, copper and retail stocks.

Keybot the Quant

Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

Keystone's proprietary trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips short today at SPX 7423. Retail stocks and volatility failed creating the initial downside flush but the rest of the day was a battle between utes, chips, retail stocks and volatility. Tomorrow will be interesting to see which side shows up with their game face.

Keybot the Quant

SPXS&P 500 Daily Chart; Diamond Pattern; Sideways Channel; Price Extended

The bulls have tried to use the diamond pattern to break out to new highs but they cannot get above 7600, at least not yet, to confirm the breakout. The diamond pattern may fall to the wayside if the bulls cannot push price any higher.

The purple sideways channel at 7350-7560 encompasses most of the price action over the last 2-1/2 months and after all the drama, price is in the middle at 7458 not knowing which way to go. Note that price closed below both the 20-day MA at 7479 and 50-day MA at 7465. Bulls got nothing unless they can climb back above these levels. The 20-week MA is at 7161. The 100-day MA is 7151. Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, that is why Keystone was not invited to the after party at the final world cup game, if the lower channel rail at 7350 fails, price is likely going down to the 7151-7161 support.

The 150-day MA continues sloping higher so the SPX remains in a cyclical bull market pattern but watch the 150 to see if it flattens and then rolls over lower that spells major trouble ahead. The blue dots show how price is extended above the 20-day MA above the 50-day above the 100 above the 150 above the 200 desperately requiring a mean reversion lower.

The red lines show negative divergence at play wanting to spankdown price and smack, that was a hard slap on Friday, that will turn any buttock cheek red. The Aroon shows the never-ending bullish euphoria continuing for the stock market. No one believes that stocks will ever go down again like the dot-com and Great Recession bubbles. The top in early June was easy to call due to the neggie d, overbot conditions, price extended above the moving average ribbon, and the bullish euphoria in the Aroon.

The set-up is very similar now. The Aroon green line shows that nearly all the bulls think stocks will go up forever. No surprise. The red line, however, shows that all the bears also believe that stocks will go up forever. When everyone is partying on one side of the boat, it capsizes, and people drown.

There are lots of crazy crosscurrents in the stock market these days. A move above 7550, then 7600, will create the path higher for bulls. A move below 7350 will usher in more weakness and a failure at 7230 will open the gates of Hell. Everything inside the sideways channel at 7350-7560 is noise and choppy slop.

King Donnie maintains his first-term legacy as a whining cry-baby sore loser with a speech the other night moaning about his 2020 election loss. Give it a rest, dude. Who even listened to that dribble? If you did, that is a couple hours of your life that you will never get back. King Crybaby. Six years later, and Trumpski still cannot accept his loss against brain-dead Sleepy Joe Biden. The orange head should be focused on stopping the Iran War that is spinning out of control. He can bomb as much as he wants but we are now in the new Global Drone War Era. The supply of cheap drones fitted with explosive warheads are limitless. It is a simple basic technology that is difficult, if not impossible to stop, unless there is regime change. Trumpski opened the door to this mess, a brave new world of drone warfare and terrorism, and still does not understand what is happening.

Iran can use the cheap $20K and $30K drones to attack ships in the Strait of Hormuz, as well as US bases in the Middle East, and neighboring Arab countries, anytime they want in the future. That cannot be stopped unless ground troops invade the country and remove the IRGC (regime change). Drones have the capability to destroy everything on Earth going forward. Resistance is futile. King Donnie knows, or should know, that the only way he can stop the hostilities in the Middle East is if he removes the regime in Iran and replaces it with a government that agrees not to be a hostile neighbor, but he is a political showman worried about the mid-term elections only 15 weeks away. Good luck wit dat as they say in the Bronx. Donnie is in over his orange head in Iran and says he wants to keep his options open like a woman in her 30's, now in her 40's. Options Open by Kathleen Edwards. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Tuesday Afternoon, 7/21/26: It's Tuesday afternoon, and I'm just beginning to see, now I'm on my way. Tuesday Afternoon by the Moody's. The SPX comes up to back kiss the 50-day MA at 7469 and 20-day MA at 7478. Price is at 7509 so the bulls are happy but they must maintain the support at 7469-7478, otherwise, a downside flush will continue. The SPX loves that sideways channel at 7350-7560 so watch that top rail at 7560 to see if the bulls can pop above. If not, price will likely leak lower again to test the lower rail at 7350. The Iran War becomes messier each day. King Donnie has been hiding information on US soldiers hurt in action that likely number over 100. The idiot keeps saying that Iran wants to make a deal. Give that a rest dude. Donnie Chump sounds like a moron every time he spouts the untruths. Don't you understand that you are dealing with religious fanatics, jackass? Iranians care about Allah and becoming a martyr not hotels and girls in bikinis. The orange one says the US is in control of the Strait of Hormuz and yet not one ship passes. That is called not having control over the Strait of Hormuz. WTIC oil at 85-ish means that a lot higher gasoline prices are on the come and the US public will be very unhappy. Oil dipped to 67 on 7/2/26 and pops almost 20 bucks in only a couple weeks after Donnie escalated the war in Iran. Since oil creeps higher each day, gasoline prices will creep higher every day. Americans may have to start paying for gasoline on an installment plan; same with the meat at the grocery store. What a mess. The rumor mill says Khomeini may have fled the country. If true, it may be worse for the situation since the IRGC is in full control and they have no desire to talk (but Chump will tell everyone they are dying to make a deal). Iran is 90 million people with 10 million radical Islamists and 80 million regular Muslim folks. The IRGC are the radical terrorist soldiers but remember, these dudes are married and have families, and lots of kids, and parents and grandparents, so that is a formidable task to change the regime in Iran and have the 10 million people that lean radical, because that is how their daily bread is buttered, to ditch their religious beliefs, and change their ways, and welcome a modernized society into Iran.

Note Added Wednesday Morning, 7/22/26, at 6:10 AM EST: King Donnie finally backpedals from the talk that Iran desperately wants a deal. He is now honest and says it does not appear that Iran wants to talk, but he will likely continue talking out of both sides of his orange mouth. That's Our Donnie. WTIC crude oil pops above 88!! Brent oil is over 95!! Folks, run out today and fill your gas tank for the car and the gas cans for the lawn equipment. Gasoline prices are going nowhere but up from here. People were worried about $4 per gallon gasoline but they should be more worried about $5 gas. The concern is not so much the oil price it is the prices of all the derivative products made from oil now in short supply. This will create more inflation, er, Trumpflation. Commodities indexes continue spiking higher indicating more Trumpflation ahead. Donnie's self-imposed Iran War mess continues. The US expands its military targets in Iran like Pickaxe Mountain where nuclear activity occurs and centrifuge equipment may be hidden there. Donnie is screwed, however, because he ushered in the new Global Drone War Era so nowhere is safe around the world when $20K drones fit with an explosive warhead can attack anything at anytime. Welcome to a Brave New World. This is Donnie's legacy.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 7/23/26, at 4:36 AM EST: WTIC oil catapults to 89.84 a hair away from 90. The GTX (commodities index a reflection of goods inflation) explodes higher to 5547. Trumpflation leads to higher prices across the board and America becomes less affordable for common people. The Iran War is an albatross that King Donnie wears around his orange neck. Trumpski has spent $40 billion on the Iran War and the situation in the Middle East is in worse shape than when he started. The war expands with the radical Islamist Houthi's in Yemen, supported by Iran, shooting at ships in the Red Sea. Secretary of State Rubio begins spewing the stupid mantra that "Iran desperately wants to make a deal." Sure they are. As they expand the war and likely hope it leads to World War III (Iran is 10 million religious fanatics).

Note Added Thursday Evening, 7/23/26, at 8:24 PM EST: WTIC oil catapults to 93.42 now at 92.55. Brent crude oil jumps to 101.71 now at 100.94. The oil price at one hundo creates a negative vibe. GTX explodes higher to 5679 printing above 5.7K today. Trumpflation will create pain for average Americans. The Iran War mess continues with King Donnie Chump mouthing off that he will hit Iran hard with military action. The bloviations are getting old. Of course Trump announces this drama so you have to tune in tomorrow to find out his decision. Each day is a reality television episode to Trumpy and he makes sure there is content available so a camera will remain locked on his orange narcissistic head. He will probably chicken out again or if he moves forward with his so-called bigtime military action, it will likely not change the status of the quagmire war. Anyone that owns, or is employed by, a business that is highly dependent on fuel (diesel, gasoline, etc..), is screwed. Interestingly, the jump in inflation, er Trumpflation, mainly due to skyrocketing oil prices, is supply driven. The Fed may hike rates next week, now at a 35% chance due to the rising inflation, but hikes are more helpful for inflation that is demand-driven instead of supply-driven. Fed Chairman Warsh will bring the tablets down from On High next week to tell traders how to trade.

The Keystone Speculator's Housing Market Indicator; United States Enters Double-Dip Housing Recession on 7/17/26

You were warned a month or so ago, here is the prior article when the housing recovery was hanging on by its fingernails, but alas, it falls off the cliff again. The United States started a housing recovery in February of this year ending the long over 3-year housing recession that no one noticed. The housing recovery, however, only ran for 5 months and it ended yesterday ushering in a double-dip housing recession.

In years gone by, manufacturing, housing and labor recessions, all were occurring over the last couple years or so, would guarantee an overall economic recession for America. Not anymore. Tech and AI runs the show now and the obscene spending and expansion of this fledgling, yet to be proven, technology stops the country from slipping into overall recession. Also, the wealth effect felt by America's privileged elite, that raped the financial system for all its worth over the last few decades, with the help of the Fed's money-printing, is fueling consumer spending that also keeps the overall recession bear at bay.

Thus, mathematicians say thus and therefore a lot, that is why Keystone was not invited to the Amvets party and fireworks show on July 4th, the last couple years were a battle between the manufacturing, housing and labor recessions against consumer spending (by the rich that control the crony capitalism system) and AI revolution. The consumer spending fueled by the wealth effect (the rich see their stocks going to the moon and keep asking why everyone is so glum) and AI hype staves off the overall recession for the US but how long will this occur?

Half the country does not own a single share of stock so the easy money games, and gains, over the years purely enriched the wealthy class effortlessly while the common American was hosed. No wonder why tens of millions of Americans no longer give a sh*t and social unrest increases with each passing week. There is no American Dream since the game is rigged by the wealthy class. Common folks no longer have any skin in the game and no longer expect their lives, or their children's lives, to be better. The wealthy class skinned the poor, and the middle class that no longer exists. The US is a faux free market crony capitalism system with 30 million privileged elite and upper class sycophants, that service the elite, at the top and 300 million peons at the bottom. Once you accept the fact that capitalism does not exist, it will all make sense to you.

So here we are with a new housing recession period beginning. The reason the news is bad is because inflation is on the rise at the same time. Trumpflation, due to King Donnie's tariffs and Iran War, remains elevated and floating higher and can only be stopped with higher rates. However, that would be a disaster to raise rates now with the housing sector slipping back into a double-dip recession. A hike in rates would completely crush the housing market and send the US into an overall recession, finally.

Fed Chairman Warsh, with the perfect hair, will probably leave rates as is on 7/29/26 and punt until the next meeting. Warsh has helmet hair like Bobby Goldsboro. Warsh is actually bald and his hair is a plastic mold. He picks it up off the Styrofoam head on the nightstand each morning and places it on his bald noggin. That is why every hair is in its place; it is a plastic mold. Most of you young folks do not know Bobby Goldsboro. He was a famous singer decades back and had hair that looked like someone cut it with a bowl on his head. His nickname was Helmet Head and Helmet Hair and he took it all in stride as good fun. Honey was his classic song. Lots of folks would cry when he sang Honey since everyone in life loses loved ones. Now that the housing recession is back, and an overall recession may be on the come, everyone will soon be crying.

NYA NYSE Composite Weekly Chart with 40-Week MA Cross

Long-time followers have seen this indicator many times over the years. Long-time reminds you of a song. Foreplay/Long Time by Boston. A key cyclical stock market indicator is the NYA 40-week MA cross. What? There's that Greek again. What is he talking about?

The festivities are starting. The NYA weekly chart above is in full negative divergence across all indicators so the top is locked-in on the weekly basis. The stochastics and money flow are overbot agreeable to a pullback. It is up in nosebleed territory so it has a long way down to come once it gives up the ship.

The NYA 40-wk MA at 22626 and rising is the cyclical bull/bear line in the sand. Price is at 23817 so about 1200 points above. The bulls are sipping Fed wine and smoking fine cigars dabbing the ashes onto the faces of the huddled masses. A drop to the critical line in the sand that would send stocks into a cyclical bear market and pain and misery ahead is only -5% away.

However, the weekly chart is now neggie d. Thus, it will receive a spankdown and drop for several weeks. The 5% could disappear quickly so keep an eye on it. Write 22.7K on a sticky note and put it on your forehead. If price drops to that level, you know that the stock market is likely falling into the abyss.

The bears are up at bat going forward so let's see if they can first attain the 23K level that is the 20-wk MA. Just think, late this year and in 2027, it is likely that price will be all the way down to touch and fall through the 200-week MA. There is lots of congestion at 19K-20K so it may take effort to saw through that level down the road.

If you bring up the NYA monthly chart, you can see all the indicators in negative divergence except the MACD line. This is on a multi-month basis and tells you that THE top is at our doorstep. We are talking a 2000 dot-com bubble, or 2008-2009 Great Recession. The weekly chart above is topped out so over the next couple weeks, as July ends, watch the MACD on the monthly because it will tell you on 7/31/26 if THE long-term multi-month perhaps multi-year top is in place. If the MACD starts sloping down by month-end, it is over folks. The multi-week downside will be child's play compared to the gloom, despair, pain and agony ahead on the monthly basis. In the 1970's and early 1980's, Hee-Haw was a fun show that families would watch together on Saturday night at 7 PM EST and then All in the Family would be on after that. Gloom, Despair, and Agony On Me. 

If the MACD remains upward-sloping at the end of this month, the NYA may need a month or two before THE top is in place to provide time for the MACD to go neggie d. Also in play is the MACD up in nosebleed territory so if it fell without going neggie d, that would not be surprising (THE long-term top is now with the weekly chart rolling over and the monthly to follow).

What does all that mumbo-jumbo mean? I don't understand half the stuff this guy is saying. Very simply, the top is in for the NYA right now on the weekly basis so it will travel lower, in a couple fits and starts, for several weeks. If the MACD line on the monthly chart rolls over, it is over for the stock market on a long-term basis. If the MACD on the monthly still slopes higher on 7/31/26, THE top will only be delayed by a month or two at most (a few weeks) and you would have to stay on guard since it could fall apart at any time. You are watching a significant long-term top form in real-time.

This is a lot different analysis than all the yahoo's on television and the internet calling for SPX 8.3K and higher by year end and SPX 9K in 2027. What are they smoking. Tell them to get out of those vape shops and get back to work. They will probably see a 5-handle on the SPX at year-end instead of an 8-handle. As things slide lower, you know what to watch; 22.7K-ish. Roy Clark was a musician's musician; his abilities were legendary but he always liked to have fun, act goofy, and play down his exceptional talent, to constantly surprise the audience, a hallmark of a great entertainer. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Tuesday Afternoon, 7/21/26: NYA 23890. The 20-wk MA is 23.1K. The 40-wk MA major line in the sand and demarcation into a cyclical bear market is 22.7K. The bulls are not concerned.

SPX S&P 500 60-Minute Chart with 200 EMA Cross: Stock Market Slips into a Short-Term Bear Market Pattern

Whooposies daisies. There is a lot of whoopsie daisying going on these days. One of Keystone's key cyclical, or short-term is a better word, indicators is the SPX 1-hour chart with 200 EMA cross. What'd he say? That sounds like Greek. The short-term bear market fell apart in late June as the Trump happy Iran War talk and the ongoing AI orgy sent stocks higher.

There were a couple tests of the ST bull in July. You can see how price bounced off the 200 EMA support. Do you think it is an important number? Obviously, the 200 EMA on the 60-minute at 7475 carries clout and it failed last week opening the door to a ST bear market. It would be reasonable to expect a back test of the 200 early next week. Give it a day or two to see if the new short-term bear market pattern is cast in concrete, or not. If so, the next step would be watching to see if it develops into a cyclical bear market for many weeks and months ahead.

A really important person passed away in recent days. It is a shame hearing about the death of that individual that was a great international spokesperson for a better world. The news of that person passing is sad and will impact countries and people all over the world. Talk about a great legacy. That person will be missed by an international audience. Yes, by now, you know who we are talking about. Yes, that is right. Bonnie Tyler. Huh? Oh, some of you thought it was that Graham character. No, he was just another corrupt politician. However, it is sad news that Bonnie died. She was a fantastic singer with a raspy voice.

Bonnie sang a bunch of hits but It's a Heartache will always be her signature song. There was something about her raspy voice and heartache that went together. As her singing career was taking off in the late 1970's, she had trouble with her vocal chords. It only got worse. They were permanently damaged and her voice would forever be scratchy and raspy. She was sad thinking that her music career was over as fast as it was starting but they decided to record songs anyways. It's A Heartache was an immediate international hit. In quick order, Bonnie Tyler was famous and an international singing sensation. If you turned on the radio in the late 1970's and early 1980's you would hear this song within 10 minutes. The song also matched the times since the 70's were difficult with high inflation and the Iranian hostage crisis. There was not a lot going right at the time. Her voice was great all the way up until she died. R.I.P. Bonnie. Your voice will live on forever; a great legacy. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Tuesday Afternoon, 7/21/26: The 200 EMA on the SPX 60-minute is 7476 with price at 7509 busting up through to keep the bears at bay. Bulls are high-fiving one another but it would be prudent for a back test of 7476 to occur to make sure the bulls really want it. The SPX 7476 is key and tells you who will win going forward. Bears need 33 points lower in the SPX or they are going to get beaten like a rented mule. Warren from Government Mule performing Soulshine with his Martin hand made in Pennsylvania. Excellent.

SOX Semiconductors Daily Chart; Textbook Head and Shoulders (H&S) So Far; Gap Fills; SOX Crashes -20.3% Off the Top into a Bear Market

Whoopsies daisies. It looks like the CHIPS have skidded out on the highway. Ponch! Ponch! The semiconductors have been the most popular girl at the dance but her fame is fleeting after it is discovered that she has two left feet. The chips move south after creating a textbook H&S pattern, at least so far.

The head is at 14630 and neck at 12200 so that is 2430 difference. Take that away from 12200 and you get 9770 as the downside target if the neckline fails. SOX is making that decision right now. It is bounce, or die, time.

Price comes down and fills that orange gap as it decides what to do. There are numerous other orange gaps that need filled down below so many that it looks like Swiss cheese. Did you know they started to put fake holes in the Swiss cheese? Next time you go to the deli counter, grab some Swiss and you will see the holes are perfect circles cut by a die-cutter blade. It probably takes too long to allow the cheese to form the holes naturally so do it the phony-baloney way. No one notices.

The 12200 support is key since it has held for a couple months and served as resistance in May. Will the chips fail right here and allow the H&S to play out and begin the popping of the AI bubble, or, will price simply bounce from here and say 'never mind' like Emily Latella? Gilda was great; she got screwed in life.

The entire fate of artificial intelligence going forward hinges on the chart above. Will it live, or die? The price drops to 12023, so this is a key number, and now rebounds to 12280 and more as the bulls try to pump the chips and stay out of trouble. Keystone is short the chips but the trade is flat after the choppy slop. State of Mind. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 7/16/26: The battle at the 12200 neckline rages on. That 12023 was the LOD yesterday and price recovered to 12418, then stumbled into the closing bell at 12399.

Note Added Friday Morning, 7/17/26: Whoopsies daisies. The chips take the pipe yesterday dropping to 11868. The neck fails so the downside target at 9770 is on the table.  Keep an eye out for a back kiss of the neckline in the days ahead. Otherwise, the gap fill at 11.5K is next. SOX was at 14655 only 18 trading days ago (6/22/26) and collapses to 11.8K-ish. Within one month, the dirty SOX crash -19.5% a hair away from the media's metric for a bear market at -20%. Perhaps that threshold gives way today. SMH is dropping -3% and XSD -2% in the pre-market so that points to a loss in the SOX on tap today, at least in the early going. China says Moonshot will be the top AI dog and no one needs all those expensive US chips. The communists sing that it is a marvelous night for a Moondance. 

Note Added Saturday, 7/18/26: The SOX drops to 11194 and ends the week at 11674 crashing -10% in the last 5 days and now down -20.3% in a bear market. The 20-wk MA is 10.8K and rising and may serve as support. The dirty SOX are in the bear market hamper.

Note Added Tuesday Afternoon, 7/21/26: The SOX rallies to 12356 with dip-buyers tripping over each other to buy, buy, buy. The 50-day MA is 12769. Price comes up to back test the neckline of the H&S at 12200 and floats a bit higher to the 12356. Price would roll over from here and drop if the H&S pattern plays out going forward.

SPCX SpaceX 2-Hour Chart; Positive Divergence

It is futile to trade SpaceX technically since it is still an infant. SPCX has been available for 21 trading days so the weekly charts got nothing unless you want to look at a 6-week MA. Same-o for the daily chart. If you bring that up, you see the IPO price at 135 and the stock opened at 150. It popped above 225 as the biggest fool bot with both fists and is now wearing a barrel.

There is a 20-day MA at 161.40 that started over the last couple days (because it is now 21 days old). Price is below the 20-day so that is a bearish vibe. The RSI is flattish on the daily chart but slips slightly lower losing the 50% level slipping into bear territory. The stochastics, however, are oversold, with nowhere to go but up in the daily time frame. Money flow is also positively diverged on the daily chart agreeable to a move higher from here on the daily basis. A lower standard deviation band number is 126, again, all this data is fresh and you cannot read a lot into it since the stock is so young, so price may want to try and tag that 126 before a sustainable run higher on the daily basis occurs.

All that mumbo-jumbo brings us to the 2-hour chart above that finally has some technical aspects to assess. The blue lines show the IPO price at 135 and the opening price at 150. The 150 was held through Friday, July 10th, and then the bottom fell out. There must have been a backroom deal with market makers and bankers to maintain the 150 price until 7/10/26. Maybe they also have an agreement to hold the 135 for a certain amount of time?

Regardless, SPCX falls to 136 only a buck above its IPO price not exactly the ringing endorsement of the future that many had hoped for but again, it is an infant in the stock market and it has to learn to crawl before it can walk.

The 2-hour chart is a happy set-up for SpaceX. The green lines show price making the lower low while all the chart indicators are sloping higher, positive divergence, so she is loaded up with fuel and ready for blast-off in the 2-hour time frame (the day-traders and swing traders playground). Price also violated the lower band so a move to the middle band at 145 is on the table. Price should bounce in this time frame and perhaps seek a back kiss of the 150 since that did not yet occur.

The daily chart does not have enough technicals but the happy stochastics and money flow will join the happy times above and send SPCX higher for a couple-few days. Guessing at how the daily chart will develop, however, there is likely still a bit of weakness perhaps to touch the 126 or at least test the 135 price to see if the market makers are supporting it there. Guessing, since there are no technicals, price may want to bump around 126-135 after the couple days of happiness shown above. That may place the bottom in the daily time frame maybe later this week or early next week and begin a multi-day rally that likely takes it back above 150.

What does all this mean? Probably a bounce now in the 2-hour time frame for a day or two then roll over again perhaps down to 126-135 for a few days and that would be a bottom in the daily time frame where price would run higher again from there with a multi-day rally probably above 150 and more. It can only be day-traded now from a technical perspective. Keystone is not in it long or short and probably will not play it. It is likely a good play now for a long but take the profits later today or tomorrow or before the weekend.

The stock is probably worth about $65 so even at its current price it is probably too expensive but hype and crowd behavior can easily send price far higher. The sap and bagholding fool at 225 hopes so. The humanoid talk is comical. Who needs a $30K garbage robot to fold your laundry? It is laughable. Americans have tiny homes and zero in their bank accounts so a nonsense robot like that is a joke. The humanoid could only operate in a large wide open mansion performing stupid duties; it would probably be more of a novelty piece. And electricity and water does not mix; that is why they are not showing the humanoid washing the dishes or watering the garden. Maybe the robot can be trained to wipe your *ss. That' funny.

The reason Musk and SpaceX is into the humanoids is not for us to use but rather for space exploration and military applications. It is surprising that no one talks about the obvious. The humanoids are being refined because you can load up a couple dozen in a space ship and fire them off to the moon or Mars. They can walk around and explore planets and feed the data back to Earth. There would be leaps and bounds in technology quickly instead of waiting for another astronaut to collect a rock and bring it back for analysis. In addition, humanoids and drones will fight the future wars on Earth; the drones are now. Be there or be square.

The satellites and Starlink are the bread and butter for SpaceX but it will be interesting as the space junk fills the black skies above Earth. Linda Perry is a helluva talent and great songwriter. Here is Spaceman from years ago. If you were standing in front of her, the resonance from her voice would knock you over; so powerful for such a small lady. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 7/16/26: SpaceX was receiving lots of attention yesterday as traders and the media watched the price action at the 135 IPO price that was arbitrarily set when the stock went to market. Bloop. Price drops to 132 but closes at the 135. The market makers probably let it go to see if there was support but it did not appear so and then the pump back to 135 occurs. Nothing has changed. The positive divergence on the 2-hour has SPCX fueled up and ready to fly high. You still have to wait for technicals to appear on the daily chart to get a better bearing but the 2-hour wants price to rally for a day or two.

Note Added Friday Morning, 7/17/26: SpaceX attempts to launch a rocket last night but the mission is aborted. 29 Raptor engines roared to life champing at the bit to launch into the blackness of the universe but alas, 4 engines would not ignite, maybe a Styrofoam coffee cup is stuck in the intake, so the computer brought the system down and told everyone to cool your jets. SPCX drops to the 126 mentioned above. Musk says next week is possible for a relaunch so the stock may stumble sideways until that occurs. The charts price-in the negative news. A few days will give more time for the technical indicators and moving averages to develop on the daily chart. She should recover going forward and the 2-hour, potentially daily chart will be set up for upside. It appears that the launch adds a new twist and some may judge SpaceX on its next launch.

Note Added Saturday, 7/18/26: SPCX ends the week at 124 after the engine failures. It still wants to bounce in the hourly time frame but may be soggy in the daily time frame depending on how the chart lines start forming.

Note Added Tuesday Afternoon, 7/21/26: SPCX 124. It dropped to 119.68 yesterday.  A couple more days will reveal more of the technical lines. The 2-hour bounces for 3 candlesticks, the rolls over so it will depend on how the daily chart sets up that will probably be positive but we will see how it goes.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 7/28/26: SPCX is at 109.93 in the premarket. Wow. SpaceX redeems itself with a perfect relaunch but the stock does not catch a break. It took a dip lower when the launch failed, but when it was successful, the stock does not go up. People are taking the money and running. Maybe they do not have confidence in the technology there moving forward? Or on how the tech actually makes money. SPCX is a satellite company that has higher aspirations. SPCX is down to 109.32. They need a relaunch of the stock. The SPCX daily chart shows price dropping but the RSI is flat, MACD pointing up a hair, stochastics sloping up and oversold, and money flow flat and oversold. All these metrics are positive divergence so the stock would be expected to pop on the daily basis from here. The SPX 2-hour charrt is also set up with possie d  so price should run higher from here on the daily basis. The charts remain in their infancy but that would be the call now. Perhaps dip-buyers rush in today willing to park some money in SPCX for a hundo a share.

GTX Commodities Daily Chart Explains Trumpflation

The story of Trumpflation is a twisted tale. King Donnie Chumpski has done nothing to lower prices for common Americans. Toss that campaign promise in the trash with the others. GTX and CRB charts are the same. Both tickers are made up of many commodities, including oil, and are a representation of goods inflation. Of course, when oil prices rise, you feel it at the gasoline pump and those higher fuel costs increase prices across the board.

Sleepy Joe Biden was a mess of a president but what can you expect from a man with early onset of dementia, and Alzheimer's on the side, that spent each day eating chocolate pudding and looking for his hat. Inflation was bumping higher as Trump was elected in November 2024 and the path of higher inflation continued into early 2025. A pullback occurs in goods inflation as prices ebb and flow with the seasons and other factors. Donnie Chump is quick to pounce on the good news and claims credit for lowering inflation within a few months of his presidency. That joy did not last long.

Trumpski then imposed tariffs on other countries starting April 2025 friend or foe. It was a mechanism that guaranteed that the attention, and cameras, would be pointed at his orange face every day forward; it was a narcissist's dream. Of course, tariffs increase inflation as the orange dolt proclaims that tariffs will decrease inflation. He is not a very smart man, in fact, he is a low IQ individual that is driven by his lust for daily attention and adoration.

At the end of February, over 4 months ago, King Donnie starts the Iran War an unmitigated mess. Oil prices catapult above $100 per barrel sending gasoline and other prices higher crushing the low-income family that already cannot pay the monthly bills. You can see in the chart that goods inflation retreated during late May and June, as oil price came back down with Donnie promising an end to his war, but that slight relief in higher prices has now gone up in a puff of smoke. Probably pot smoke these days. 

Donnie Chump re-escalates the Iran War so oil and other prices are on the rise again. King Donnie is as equally incompetent as Sleepy Joe Biden. Inflation has no effect on you when you are rich; you always buy what you want to buy.

The 30 million Americans at the top, that raped the US financial system for all it is worth starting with Ronnie Ray-gun in the 1980's, are asking why is everyone so glum? These privileged elite and the upper middle class sycophants that service the wealthy, that live in the McMansions, control the nation and the other 300 million folks are the peons at the bottom of the food chain that now view the American Dream as the American Joke. The middle class was gutted over the last six decades so the wealthy could have 10 homes, 32 cars, a $40,000 refrigerator, and send their kids to the best schools and colleges to perpetuate the class separation, and on top of all that complain daily about the taxes they pay. The Trumpflation saga is now added on top of that pig slop. Many common Americans cancel their drive and vacation to Atlantic City and the East Coast this year because of the debilitating Trumpflation. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 2:17 PM EST: The CPI inflation data is released this morning and the headline number is much tamer than expected at 3.5% versus 3.8% expected. This will make the Fed's job easier since they can stay on hold. They do not want to cut since employment remains steady and buoyant although the housing sector remains challenged. The Fed can delay a hike since inflation is no biggie as the happy data shows. Right? Wrong. The news is groovy for this data set but it represents that period in the chart above at the end of May and June with oil prices dropping and inflation improving, just as the data shows. However, the same data that will be released next month, only about 30 days away, will reflect the upward spike in the maroon circle so everyone will be nervous about rising inflation again. GTX jumps higher to 5320 today so far. You can check CRB later since it is an EOD (end-of-day) chart. Despite the happy data today, you can smell a faint and foul odor of persistent inflation. The jukes and jives with data from one month to the next increases the market drama.

Note Added Wednesday Morning, 7/15/26, at 6:17 AM EST: Fed Chairman Warsh is testifying on Capitol Hill yesterday and today and he was baited to say inflation is tamed based on the CPI data. Warsh does not take the bait, since he is looking at charts like the GTX above, and says the inflation mission is not accomplished because the data will likely float higher again for next month. 

Note Added Thursday Morning, 7/16/26: GTX is at 5288 trading above 5300 intraday the last couple days.

Note Added Saturday, 7/18/26: GTX 5364. Trumpflation is alive. It's Alive!

Note Added Tuesday Afternoon, 7/21/26: GTX 5471. She is running higher as the Iran War escalates and oil prices and other commodities shoot higher.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 7/23/26: WTIC oil catapults to 89.84 a hair away from 90. The GTX explodes higher to 5547. Trumpflation leads to higher prices across the board and America becomes less affordable for common people. The Iran War is an albatross that King Donnie wears around his orange neck.

Note Added Thursday Evening, 7/23/26, at 8:24 PM EST: WTIC oil catapults to 93.42 now at 92.55. Brent crude oil jumps to 101.71 now at 100.94. The oil price at one hundo creates a negative vibe. GTX explodes higher to 5679 printing above 5.7K today. Trumpflation will create pain for average Americans. The Iran War mess continues with King Donnie Chump mouthing off that he will hit Iran hard with military action. The bloviations are getting old. Of course Trump announces this drama so you have to tune in tomorrow to find out his decision. Each day is a reality television episode to Trumpy and he makes sure there is content available so a camera will remain locked on his orange narcissistic head. He will probably chicken out again or if he moves forward with his so-called bigtime military action, it will likely not change the status of the quagmire war. Anyone that owns, or is employed by, a business that is highly dependent on fuel (diesel, gasoline, etc..), is screwed. Interestingly, the jump in inflation, er Trumpflation, mainly due to skyrocketing oil prices, is supply driven. The Fed may hike rates next week, now at a 35% chance due to the rising inflation, but hikes are more helpful for inflation that is demand-driven instead of supply-driven. Fed Chairman Warsh will bring the tablets down from On High next week to tell traders how to trade.

AAPL Apple Daily and Weekly Charts Remain Rotten with Negative Divergence Despite All-Time Record High at 323 Palindrome

Apple squeezes out a new all-time record high at the 323 palindrome but it remains a piece of excrement. Recent happy talk and now a lawsuit against OpenAI has got some sucka's and bagholders in a buying mood again. The daily and weekly charts are in full negative divergence across all indicators so she is cooked in the daily and weekly time frames.

Price may jog for a couple days, especially with Fed drama on tap, but AAPL should receive its neggie d spankdown at any time forward in both the daily and weekly time frames. It is set up for a multi-week pullback so as it drops, you can reference the monthly chart and see if the MACD goes neggie d to identify the top as a long-term multi-month even, multi-year, top. Even if it is not THE top now, it will be within a couple months. After the multiple weeks of downside, AAPL may come up again for a few weeks to seal the deal on the monthly so that long-term top is either now or late August/September (to give a little more time for the MACD on the monthly to go neggie d).

The hype is out of hand today with television analysts yelling buy, buy, buy! Buy this shiny red apple that is rotten on the inside. No charge for the worm. Did you puff out your chest today and buy Apple stock?

Timmy Trader bot 4 big blocks of AAPL stock on the long side and brags to pretty Emily, the new administrative assistant, in the breakroom, that he is a better trader than Jesse Livermore. Emily scoffs, laughing at the hapless idiot. Timmy Trader asks Emily why she will not go out with him. Emily flicks her hand as she leaves the breakroom laughing proclaiming that she would never date a man that did not respect neggie d. Timmy is left alone holding a cup of lukewarm coffee wondering what this neggie d and possie d stuff is?

It will be fun to watch going forward. Note today's candlestick with the long upper shadow. That tells you it was a bull versus bear battle all day long and in the end the bears won. Comically, AAPL prints a new all-time record high but the bears won the day. If you own Apple, take the money and run, otherwise, you will be known as Sapple. Keystone is not long or short AAPL and has not played it in a while. If he does trade AAPL going forward, it would be on the short side. The Apple is rotten but the Gin Blossoms are groovin' at a backyard concert gig. Hey Jealousy. Suddenly, all the neighbors want to be friends. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 7/16/26: There is lots of happy Apple talk over the last couple days. Apple wants a bigger chunk of the AI pie. Yesterday, is a +4% orgy rally to a new all-time closing high at 328. The orgy pump should last a day or few but the daily chart would simply reset with neggie d again. The weekly chart remains negative so keep an eye on that. The coming days will likely show that the buyers are not as enthusiastic as it appears with yesterday's party.

Note Added Friday Morning, 7/17/26: Apple is trying to squeeze every last drop of cider juice out of the rotting pulp. AAPL floats higher to 335 and closes at 333 another record high.

Note Added Saturday, 7/18/26: Sapple squeezes out a tiny higher high at 334.99 ending the week at 333.74. Some traders must think that they can hide out in AAPL. The happy talk saves the stock for a few days.

Note Added Tuesday Afternoon, 7/21/26: AAPL 327.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish Whipsawing Back to the Long Side

Keytone's trading robot, Keybot the Quant, whipsaws back to the long side today at SPX 7534 but humorously, wants to already flip back to the short side. The market action is crazy this week. Watch copper and utilities. The flip-flops and mis-directions make you Dizzy like Tommy Roe. Going around in circles all the time.

Keybot the Quant

Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

Keystone's trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips to the short side yesterday at SPX 7451. The quant, however, already wants to whipsaw back to the long side. Utes, chips and retail stocks are key. It may be an interesting morning ahead.

Keybot the Quant

SPX S&P 500 2-Hour Chart; Diamond Pattern; Overbot; Negative Divergence Developing

Here is an update for the SPX diamond pattern that was posted a few charts back. Price came up to test the top rail, and punched up through, however, the red lines show the higher highs in price but all the indicators are negatively diverged. The orange circle highlights the MACD line that is neggie d because it is flat but that sneaky thing probably wants another jog move before throwing off firm negative divergence.

For this chart, the candlesticks print at the opening bell at 9:30 AM EST, then at 10 AM, then at 12 PM (noon), then at 2 PM; 4 candles per day. Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, that is why Keystone was disinvited to the Taylor Swift wedding, a down-up jog move would place the top at 10 AM tomorrow if the top is not in already as the chart above shows. You simply have to watch the MACD to make sure it remains neggie d, this should be known at 10 AM, and if not, surely by noon, the chart will likely be committed to a neggie d spankdown with prices pulling back.

Then the question will be if price simply back kisses the top rail of the diamond pattern and then bounces and takes off higher like a rocket, or, will price fall back into the diamond pattern and then potentially fall out the bottom rail of the diamond pattern. Tomorrow should be a top in the 2-hour time frame and we shall see what the bears got. Keybot the Quant algorithm is long but will be looking to go short if copper is weak. Shine On You Crazy Diamond. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Wednesday Morning, 7/8/26, at 4:52 AM EST: The SPX receives the start of the neggie d spankdown in the 2-hour time frame. Price falls to the top rail of the diamond at 7503. The SPX hesitates since it must make a bounce or die decision from here. King Donnie Trumpski retaliates against Iran for hitting the ships yesterday and from the NATO summit proclaims that the ceasefire is over and he calls the Iranian government (IRGC) "scum." Oil jumps higher and European stocks and US futures collapse. S&P futures are down -63 points and WTIC oil is at 74.67 and Brent crude at 78.45. WTIC crude tapped 67, the price at the start of the Iran War, a couple days ago but now explodes higher towards 75. US gasoline prices and overall inflation will float higher creating problems for King Donnie into the mid-term elections on November 3rd, less than 4 months away. WTIC crude tags 75 and Brent is about to hit 79. Donnie Trumpy loves to put on a show. Global markets are shell-shocked and digesting Donnie's latest tantrum.

Note Added Sunday, 7/12/26: The SPX pulls back to the top rail of the triangle and bounces finishing the week strong threatening to break out to all-time record highs again. The diamond pattern may resolve to the upside if price begins running above 7600 and higher. It is a very sloppy finish to the diamond pattern that may fade into the background and become nullified as sideways chop suey continues. The buying volume on Thursday and Friday is pitiful. There are a lot of Joe Sixpack's tripping over each other to buy any dip as the institutional money slips out the back door. The stock market is erratic and unstable so let it ride out the drama. The Iran War appears to be escalating again with the radical Islamists decreeing the Strait of Hormuz closed. Donnie screwed the pooch starting the war and is in over his orange head. Trumpski is dangling resorts, casinos, beaches and girls in bikinis to the radical Islamists that are religious fanatics and would be honored to die for Allah. How does the so-called deal-maker make a deal with someone he does not understand? Donnie is used to dealing with Western crony capitalists that freely and willingly sell their souls for money or power. In Iran, however, religious fanaticism, not crony capitalism greed, drives their actions. Drones are the future and may eventually destroy everything on Earth. Resistance is futile. Iran knows they can control the strait forever with their cheap drones fitted with warheads. It can be hopeless to defend against swarms of drones. Remember, when Donnie started the war at the end of February, the first question Keystone asked was 'how many drones does Iran have because that dictates how long the war will last'. The answer is it is a new forever war. A diplomatic solution appears unattainable so the Iranian regime would have to be replaced with a government that agrees to keep the Hormuz waterway open. Until that happens, the turmoil and Middle East drama will continue and fester. Trump's first-term legacy was a whining, crybaby, sore-loser. King Crybaby. Donnie's second term legacy may be the president that forever changed navigation through international waterways creating tollways and forbidden zones making the world a far more dangerous place. Donnie has to fix the mess he created in Iran, otherwise, that new negative legacy awaits. Look for King Donnie to proclaim some news to try and goose markets or keep oil prices down this afternoon before the futures open for trading at 6 PM EST.

CAT Caterpillar Weekly Chart; Negative Divergence Developing; Rising Wedge; Overbot; Tweezer Top; Price Extended; Michael Burry Short

CAT is in the news since Michael Burry wants to play it on the short side going forward. That may be a touch early for a short call on the weekly basis. Negative divergence is developing as the red lines show and the RSI, histogram, stochastics and money flow all want price to receive a neggie d spankdown. However, the MACD line remains long and strong with fuel in the tank to still take price higher. Also, that money flow is getting goosed and may create near-term buying interest.

Caterpillar is long in the tooth on the weekly basis. The rising wedge is a bearish pattern. The RSI, stochastics, money flow are overbot agreeable toa  pullback on the weekly basis. The MACD is in nosebleed territory so it can reverse at will from here and lock in the chart negativity. The Tweezer Top (blue circle) is identifying a top but it would be nicer if the MACD was neggie d.

She may jog for a couple weeks, down in price for a week then back up for a week around these highs and higher, and then the MACD will be neggie d to lock in the top.

Why the orgy with Caterpillar a stodgy old company that makes huge machinery ran by guys in flannel shirts that spit tobacco? AI, what else? Artificial intelligence has its hand in every pie. The data centers are needed for the AI revolution that will produce more stupid videos and answer your lazy questions. What is the first thing that happens when building anything including roads and bridges? A hole is dug in the ground and you need CAT machinery for all that work. Earth-movers will grade a lot of acreage so the rain water flows a certain way. Retention ponds are needed. Temporary gravel roads are needed as construction crews lay foundations and begin erecting the buildings.

That is the Captain Obvious reason for traders buying CAT with both fists over the last year. But there is a second reason. Caterpillar and Cummins provide huge diesel and natty gas generators and other equipment that data centers will need. Everyone talks about the power needed. I need more power, Scotty! Captain, I'm giving her all she got! No one thinks about the back-up power. If power goes out in a storm or for other reasons, the show must go on so the data centers will probably have back-up diesel or natural gas generators. These large generator skid units are about half the size of a ranch home (think big equipment not a little generator you see in Home Depot).

So CAT jumps higher with traders tripping over each other to buy shares. Some folks are late to the party, that always happens, so they may create some sideways chop until the above chart is in full neggie d for the top.

The CAT daily chart just topped out with neggie d on the daily basis taking the -7% beating today. There would be more downside expected for a few days or week or so. The monthly chart is ugly in negative divergence across all indicators except for the MACD but that is in the stratosphere with nowhere to go but down. There may be a month of choppy sideways slop ahead with CAT. The Burry short call looks good for going through the rest of the year into 2027 but it may still take a month of slop at the elevated levels before she lets loose to the downside.

If you rode CAT higher and have profits, take them and move on. CAT is a short the rallies play going forward for the rest of the year but it may be better to enter short in a couple weeks or a month. Keystone is not in CAT long or short but will consider playing it short as the year progresses. Come on, honey, show us that Stray Cat Strut. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Sunday, 7/5/26: CAT pukes almost -3% on Friday dropping to 948 but rebounding to 963 sitting on the 20-day MA S/R at 963. Price will bounce or die from here. Keystone should have waited one day before posting the chart above since now it is in full negative divergence on the weekly basis. The MACD is sloping down as the Tweezer Top printed. Thus, CAT should tail lower for a few weeks, but then will rebound, probably not to the Tweezer Top highs but maybe to 1000, and that will provide the monthly chart time to lock in its negativity. July should be a topping-out month for Caterpillar and then the bad stuff happens after that into the end of the year.

Note Added Sunday, 7/12/26: CAT is at 952 down -11% off the top 8 trading days ago.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 7/16/26: CAT 914.

Note Added Saturday, 7/18/26: CAT 880. The LOD Friday is 838. Meow. CAT was 1073 on 6/30/26 and in only 12 days crashes -18% to 880. The power of neggie d.

NKE Nike Weekly Chart; Falling Wedge; Oversold; Positive Divergence

In the sea of garbage charts these days, like Scamazon and Sapple, it appeared hopeless to find any ticker on the long side worth a look. Nike receives a bunch of negative publicity again after results were okay. Traders and investors have beaten this sneaker maker to a pulp. Nike was ridden hard and put away wet. Nike is shunned by everyone. It is Branded! Step forward Nike.

As typically happens, when you look at the charts, the real story is far different from the media diatribe. NKE is ready to rock 'n roll. It is set up with positive divergence so it is on the launch pad and all fueled up to explode higher in the weekly time frame. Even better, Nike is possie d across all indicators in the daily, weekly and monthly charts. Wow. That is really something. Nike has been bludgeoned badly in recent years but the worst is over and this stock is going to be one of the handful of winners from here as the year plays out. The falling green wedge is a bullish pattern typically from where stocks launch higher.

For anyone looking for a long to buy, buy NKE. There will probably be a bunch of folks running into buy it tomorrow and next week so do not dilly-daddly. It is fueled up and the fuse is already lit. She is going to fly. Since the broad stock market should pullback with a serious downdraft going forward, NKE may endure some more pain as investors beat the dead horse one more time. That will be great opportunities to buy. Choose your spots going forward but you can buy the dips on this one. Keystone does not own NKE long or short but will probably buy some long after a bit more time is given to see how the broad stock market flushes lower. Ugly Nike, the girl that no one wanted, that worked at the shoe store in the mall over the last few years, is now the most popular girl at the mall. Young folks do not remember malls. Complicated. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Sunday, 7/5/26: NKE rallies over +8% last week starting to receive the possie d rocket launch on the weekly basis. The Nike daily chart shows price on an island below 46-ish. There is a gap big enough for a blimp to fly through at 46-50. Thus, price likely has more juice in the daily time frame to snag 46. From there it has to make a bounce or die decision and an island reversal pattern would be on the table for a gap-up from 46 to 50. Otherwise, price will likely slowly travel higher and fill the 46-50 gap. The charts say a multi-week rally in Nike has just started and price would be expected to travel higher to 50 or more once traders see that it has bottomed. The monthly chart remains possie d, although the MACD makes an equal low, so NKE is a very attractive long in a stock market that displays nothing but sh*t and garbage as a historical top occurs.

Note Added Sunday, 7/12/26: NKE is at 44 remaining in the choppy sideways slop at 41-46 since April but the weekly chart continues looking bueno for multiple weeks of upside ahead. Put on your running shoes.

Note Added Saturday, 7/18/26: NKE is at 43.76 running in place. It looks good on daily and weekly charts.

AMZN Amazon Monthly Chart; Rising Wedge; Overbot; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation; Price Extended; Scamazon Receives the Neggie D Spankdown and Start of a Multi-Month Drawdown

Are you a bag holding sucka in Scamazon? There were a couple of idiots on television today telling folks to buy AMZN with both hands. That's funny. Amazon is cooked, crispy fried, on a long-term multi-month basis. Stick a fork in it. Jeff Bezos knew when to exit stage left. Every investment house and money manager owns funds with Amazon as part of the make up, or recommends that investors keep AMZN in their portfolios. Suckers. It's funny.

The chart above is a POS. What is so hard to understand? Are you blind? You look but you do not see. Let's take a look at the mess. The red rising wedge is a bearish pattern and the collapses from rising wedges can be quite dramatic. Price teeters on the lower rail support of the rising wedge.

Most importantly, the chart is in full negative divergence across all chart indicators. As price made new highs, on the monthly basis, the indicators are now all sloping lower and out of gas unable to take price to new highs again. AMZN receives the initial neggie d spankdown off the top but she has a long ways down to go. The RSI and stochastics are coming off overbot levels agreeable to a pullback.

The ADX pink boxes show that the last strong trend was higher but it petered out in 2022 as the COVID-19 pandemic came to an end. As Amazon price then recovered and moved higher, the ADX tried to register it as a strong trend but alas, it petered out and all the record highs up in this nosebleed territory are hype and fluff. People are just buying Amazon stock just because it is Amazon. The long players that would buy then sell, then buy again, always looking for the bigger fool, are now looking around realizing no one wants to buy anymore, and accepting that they are the bigger fool left holding the bag.

The Aroon green line shows that most every bull still believes AMZN will go up forever. That is no surprise. They are big bulls for Amazon stock and fanboys. The funny thing is the red line shows that most all the bears also believe that Amazon stock will go up forever.  Everyone is on one side of the boat. The bears have given up on shorting it. You know what happens next and the neggie d spankdown and multi-month pullback has already started.

The stock did a round trip during the COVID-19 pandemic jumping from one hundo up to 180 then coming back down to one hundo as the pandemic ended and the covid endemic phase began (covid behaves like the regular flu now). The upper band is violated so a trip back to the middle band at 227 is on the table also the lower band at 184, both rising sharply.

Price is/was extended above the moving average ribbon requiring a mean reversion lower. The blue starts show the prior tops where price was extended too far above the 12 above the 20 above the 50 above the 200. Those pullbacks were 37 points, 100 points, 50 points, 60 points and 64 points. Thus, we can get mathy with this. Mathematicians say thus, therefore, and ergo, a lot, that is why Keystone's invitation to the July 4th party got lost in the mail. Let's say the top is 275 so taking away the smallest pullback at 37 would be a 238 downside target not too far from here. Taking the biggest mean reversion pull back at one hundo points, that would target 175 as the destination over the coming months. If you average the pullbacks, you get 62 points as the average mean reversion so that would target 213.

Keystone's 80/20 Rule says 8's lead to 2's on the way up and 2's to 8's on the way down. If price came down to 220-ish, that opens the door wide to get to 180. The first test is the 12-mth MA at 236. If a stock or index falls below its 12-mth MA it can be considered to be falling into a cyclical bear market.

Amazon is a POS. That is why Bezos ditched it. He milked it for all it was worth and he git while the gittin' was good. Call your money manager and tell them to get you out of Scamazon stock. They will tell you that you are in for the long term. Tell them the ole Wall Street adage that "in the long term you will be dead."

AMZN should continue lower on a monthly basis for the remainder of the year and into 2027. It is reasonable to expect a pullback to the 180-200 area and then it can be reassessed to see how far down she will really go. Keystone is not long or short AMZN and has not played it in a couple years or more. Get out of Scamazon and save yourself while you are able.

On the wekly chart, it receives a neggie d spankdown for the last 5 weeks and is hesitating at the 20 and 50-wk MA's at 231-238. Real trouble begins if this fails. The indicators are agreeable to the sideways hesitation but the MACD remains weak and bleak wanting to see further lows in price on the weekly basis that means the 231 may get tested over the next couple weeks.

On the daily chart, you can see the positive divergence bouncing the stock price now on the daily basis. This may continue a few days. The 50-day MA resistance is at 255. So the daily chart says up, the weekly chart is sideways favoring a downward bias, and the monthly chart is gonzo and has started a multi-month pullback. Of course there will be fits and starts but Scamazon will likely meander lower from now into 2027. That will surprise a lot of people especially those that keep saying buy, buy, buy over the last couple months. They are the bagholders.

Amazon and Apple monthly charts are similar They are receiving the short-term boost in the daily time frame but the long-term charts are challenged. AMZN's monthly chart is cooked as explained above but AAPL is trying to squeeze one last drop out before it begins its long multi-month descent for the remainder of the year into 2027. Plan accordingly. Keystone is not in AAPL long or short either. Amazon women are big and beautiful but California Girls are special. Lovely ladies from the 80's and 90's. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Sunday, 7/5/26: Scamazon floats higher to 243. If you look at the daily chart, you can see long upper shadows on the price candlesticks that shows that bulls and bears battle and the bears are winning the fight despite price floating higher. The 200-day MA at 233 is key support. The daily chart is expecting a bit more upside in price for a day or few. The weekly chart is chopping sideways. The monthly chart is cooked, totally burnt. The 20-wk MA is 238 and the 50-wk MA is 232. Do you see a confluence? The critical 12-mth MA is at 236. The story is told at 232-238. AMZN bulls win big above 238 (price is at 243). Amazon bears win big below 232 and the 232-238 range is noise. Scamazon will leak lower during July and when 232 fails, you will see the once great Amazon puking in the alleyway next to the dumpster behind the bar.

Note Added Sunday, 7/12/26: AMZN is at 245 trying to remain buoyant with happy talk. The monthly chart is ugly with the multi-month top placed in May due to the negative divergence. She likely has a long way down to go into year-end. Amazon is down -12% off the top in early May nine weeks ago.

Note Added Saturday, 7/18/26: Scamazon is at 247.