NVDA NVIDIA Monthly Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation; Price Extended; Git While the Gittin' Is Good

Yesterday and on the weekend, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang was telling everyone to buy his stock and other AI company's stock after the Friday pullback. There is something seedy about a CEO telling you to buy his stock, that is why most executives do not say it. You want to buy on results and earnings if a fundamental trader, or technicals if you are a chartist, not hype from the CEO that sounds like a snake oil salesman proclaiming the greatness of his elixir from the back of a carnival wagon.

Talk about leading the lambs to slaughter. Holy smokes. The NVDA monthly chart is a POS. If you have profits from the historic run higher, take the money and run, like Steve and the band. The rising wedge pattern is bearish. Price has violated the upper standard deviation band so a move back to the middle band at 164, and the lower band at 99, are on the table on the monthly basis. Price is way extended above the moving average ribbon so a mean reversion lower on the monthly basis is desperately needed.

The red lines show the overbot conditions that are agreeable to a pullback and the glaring negative divergence. Price moves higher, the candlesticks printing a potential Tweezer Top last month and this month, while ALL the chart indicators slope lower; neggie d. Thus, a negative divergence spankdown is on tap going forward on the monthly basis (this means the rest of the year and perhaps much more).

The Fall 2025 top was significant; you can scroll back and find that post when Keystone called the top back then. The MACD line was tricky business, but negatively diverged, so price did not have to come the whole way back up, but it was such a tiny dip of the MACD line when the top occurred, a move back up in price to the matching and a bit more high is no biggie and not surprising.

And now the glaring neggie d is firmly in place so avoid NVDA like the plague. She is going to take a big drop lower as the year plays out. Sub 100 is on the table for later this year and that would be a -50% pullback. Blasphemy! What is this guy talking about? It is AI! NVIDIA stock will go up forever! This guy does not know what he is talking about. It is blasphemy going against AI that is our new god with a small g. Is that what you are thinking in your small mind?

That is what makes a top. The sucka's will defend their buying with more buying and more hype and more euphoric projections. The Aroon exactly reflects the out of control fearlessness and euphoric bullishness for NVDA stock. The green line shows that all the bulls believe NVDA will go up forever. Comically, the red line shows that all the bears also believe that NVDA will go up forever. Everyone is on one side of the boat with zero expectation that any downside will occur.

The stock would be tricky to short and there is no reason to since there are many other better short plays out there. Keystone is not long or short NVDA now and will probably not play it. The chart above is telling you to get out of NVDA while you can, otherwise, you will be the sucker and bagholder. If a money manager just placed you into NVDA stock, tell them to move that dough elsewhere. He is just helping one of his wealthy clients exit NVDA at the top and sloughing off the shares to you, Sammy Sucka and Bonita Bagholder that are caught up in the hype.

Look at the volume dying off over time. The money flow shows a bit of life but that is due to the dip-buyers worried they will miss the next big move higher. The NVDA party is in full gear with Jensen buying shots for everyone while telling them to buy shares. Bring on the dancing girls. Everybody sing the fan fave Wagon Wheel. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.