NYA NYSE Composite Weekly Chart; 40-Week MA at 16706 Determines if Stock Market Rally Has Legs

The NYA 40-week MA at 16706 determines if the stock market rally has bigtime upside legs, or not. Right now, the NYA is at 16660, an ominous  number, below the 16706 so the stock market is in a cyclical bear market. Will it stay that way? The bulls regain the SPX 12-mth MA at 4335, which is the cliff-edge for the US stock market, and then the SPX 10-mth MA at 4425, which opens the door to higher prices and the S&P 500 pops to 4516.

Now the rubber meets the road. It is time for the go no-go decision. It is time to sh*t or get off the pot and any other corny cliché you can come up with. The NYA must overtake the 40-week MA at 16706 to prove that the stock market rally is real and has serious legs higher. If the NYA stalls here, and cannot attain 16706, or if it sneaks above by a whisker for a day or so, but then fails, the stock market will likely come down super hard so today is for all the marbles, hey, that's another cliché, and a rhyme about time.

The failure of the 40-wk MA occurs 2 weeks ago and, as would be expected, price comes up for the back kiss, where the decision is made to either jump back above the 40-week, or, price will hit its head on the 16706 resistance and receive a spank down forecasting bad news ahead.

If the NYA overtakes 16706, the bulls can throw confetti and keep guzzling Fed wine buying stocks with reckless abandon. Further upside can be gauged by the following parameters. Bulls need XLF above 39.19 (banksters), CPER above 26.79 (copper) and VIX to drop below 20.49 (volatility). If all 3 turn bullish, there is a bigtime rally occurring.

Copper futures need to pop about +1.1% to give the bulls a strong upside force for stocks. Copper is trading right now at...... wait for it...... wait a bit longer for it........ +1.1%. Obviously, the stock market is at a key demarcation pivot point today and will either confirm a joyous rally, or once again begin downside bearish misery. The VIX remains elevated at 25 as this is typed so vol remains bearish.

If the NYA stalls here and begins dropping again, the bears can salivate. The bears then need weaker utilities and commodities and for the SPX to drop back down to test the 10-mth and 12-mth key support levels highlighted above. Easy-peasy. Chose your poison.

All that matters today, is the NYA, and if it is joyous, the banks, copper and volatility will control further upside which will have legs. If NYA fails here, there is bigtime trouble in store for the United States stock market. Do you think the bulls can punch the NYA above 16706 to claim victory, or will the bears crush the NYA pushing it down the basement stairs along with the SPX?

Copper futures pop to +1.3% so the bulls stick a shiv into the bears belly before the day is even underway. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.