Thursday, September 24, 2020

The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 9/24/20; Over 200,000 Americans Dead; US is Flattening the Active Cases Bell Curve Chart but 35 States Are Struggling; 10 US States Report Highest New Coronavirus Cases Ever including Wyoming, Kansas, North Dakota, South Dakota, Missouri, Minnesota, Utah, West Virginia, Arkansas and Illinois; Europe is in COVID-19 Hell but Only Imposing Lockdown-Lite Restrictions; Israel Imposes Strict Lockdown; 19 Countries Report Highest New COVID-19 Cases Ever Including Spain, Netherlands, UK, Poland, Romania, Hungary, Greece, Czechia, Moldova, Ukraine, UAE, Iran, Iraq, Bahrain, Israel, Nepal, Morocco, Indonesia and Argentina; President Trump Asks UN Members to Hold China Accountable for “The China Virus”; Congress Unable to Agree on Fiscal Stimulus Bill; US Stock Market Slips into a -10% Correction; WORLDWIDE CORONAVIRUS DEATHS EXCEED 1 MILLION PEOPLE; PRESIDENT TRUMP AND FIRST LADY MELANIA TEST POSITIVE FOR COVID-19; Coronavirus Article 20





 

By K E Stone (Keystone)

200,000 Americans are dead from coronavirus. That’s four Vietnam’s. President Trump keeps bragging that “we are rounding the corner” with the virus but many people ponder what color the sky is in his world. Over the last three weeks, the active cases bell curve chart above is flatter than a newlywed’s souffle, but the jury is out as to which way she breaks.

The US is at the same place in the active cases curve as early June, a couple weeks after the Memorial Day parties and beach fun. Back then the chart took off higher as the infection rate accelerated after the human comingling and partying. Is the same negative fate in store for America after Labor Day or will the virus-weary nation finally flatten the curve and roll it over lower to create the bell curve shape declaring victory over covid?

There are over 32 million people afflicted with COVID-19 around the world. No doubt China is pleased at the results of its bioweapon testing. The filthy communists that released the bioterrorism on the world have the pandemic under control while the rest of the world suffers unable to tame the covid beast.

The liberal-leaning media such as cable news CNN and MSNBC are touting the 200K US death number since it reflects negatively on President Trump’s reelection bid. The right-leaning media, such as Fox News, downplays the 200K death milestone since they cheerlead for Trump. The Johns-Hopkins virus data lags the Worldometer data by a few days which already crossed 200K.

In recent days, the news flow surrounding the pandemic is relentless. President Trump tells fellow republicans to go bigger on the stimulus bill. Trump obviously wants to tout a bill ahead of the election. He does not care about the US debt; Trump only cares about reelection. It is a shame the wealthy skate along in life without losing a beat from COVID-19 while the common American and poor are screwed both financially and medically. The demopublicans and republocrats, that sleep on the finest linens each evening, cannot come together to provide a stimulus bill to help the working poor, disadvantaged folks and people of color. It’s just another day in crony America. There will be payback.

New virus cases in the US are hinting at moving higher two weeks after the Labor Day parties. Students and employees are returning to schools, universities and work. BlackRock, a major asset manager on Wall Street, says that employees may never be 100% back in the office. Airlines are asking the US government for more money otherwise mass layoffs will follow. There is not enough money to bail out every company and individual in America but rest assured that the wealthy class will get theirs.

A stink develops from a news story where 650K masks were to be distributed to US citizens in April through the US Post Office but the Whitehouse nixed the idea. Trump pleads ignorance on the matter when asked. Of course he does. A manufacturer near Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, says the president cancelled their ongoing ventilator supply contract before covid hit, and then the government ended up spending three times the cost to provide the ventilators in the emergency situation during the springtime and early summer. The pandemic is a daily retort of misinformation and lies from the US government, once-renowned medical organizations and politicians. The pandemic is a confusing mess.

The CDC is under the watch of the Department of Health & Human Services (HHS). The Whitehouse is applying political pressure on the CDC to show happier news on its website and to downplay aspects of the data. The CDC, NIH and WHO reputations are soiled by the pandemic misinformation and political influence and chicanery. The games of the elite class only serve to confuse the common public. After over eight months of chaos and confusion, many people do not know if they are supposed to wear a mask or not. The WHO and CDC have lost credibility.

Last Friday evening, Trump began a campaign rally, with the crowd mostly mask-less, when the news hit that 87-year old liberal-leaning Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg died. Trump will provide another selection for the Supreme Court. It is odd that no one handed him a note during the rally. Many in the crowd likely knew of her passing. Reporters told Trump the news a couple hours later as he exited the event with rock music blaring in the background.

The politicians are hypocrites; all of them. Years ago, republicans blocked a justice selected by President Obama but now say they will push through their selection. Conversely, Ginsburg herself said back then that Obama’s selection should proceed since he is president but in a deathbed statement, she says the country should now wait until after the election to select the new justice. Corrupt politicians and judges are a major part of the crony capitalism system; they keep the dishonest wheels turning.

The presidential election on 11/3/20 is not as important as most think since America is only choosing which silver-haired white guy will be overseeing the ongoing collapse of crony capitalism. Current polls show an average lead of about eight percentage points for democrat Joe Biden but most polls were incorrect during the last presidential election.

A Pew Research poll says only 51% of Americans will be willing to take the virus vaccine when available. This is down from 70% a couple months ago. The ongoing misinformation and confusion about the pandemic create mistrust and people become more skeptical of a vaccine rushed through the approval process. The pharmaceutical companies say the vaccine will be safe but Americans are skeptical.

Dr Fauci says the US may have a vaccine readily available to the public by April, stroking Trump that said this statement during a campaign rally, but 10 minutes later the so-called esteemed doctor says it “might take some time” for FDA approval. The president accuses the FDA of stalling a vaccine to hurt his reelection (many career department staffers in government lean left).

Trump says the final decision on vaccine approval is his. No wonder the public is quickly losing faith in any potential vaccine. Are you going to roll up your sleeve and receive a shot, perhaps in two stages 40 days apart, because Doctor Donnie gave it the all-clear? It’s laughable. The pandemic is a mess.

President Trump proclaims that all Americans will have access to a vaccine by April. The medical professionals and doctors roll their eyes since the consensus is that this action may not occur until next summer at the earliest. Trump says 330 million people can have the vaccine if they want it in only 189 days. A vaccine is not even approved as yet let alone manufactured and distributed to every corner of the United States. In addition, many vaccines require two dosages that are 40 days apart since the most negative side effects will occur in that period. The president appears delusional in his decree but he will say he is being optimistic. Pie-in-the-sky statements ae stupid not optimistic. King Donnie said the virus would be gone by April 2020, remember that? Oh my. As the Get Smart television show would say, “he only missed it by this much.” People want to know facts about the virus and receive guidance as to what to do to keep their families safe but are only provided misinformation and happy talk that creates chaos and confusion. The pandemic is a mess.

Trump grades himself an A+ in handling the pandemic. That deserves a belly-laugh. King Donnie says his actions this year are “phenomenal.” 200K Americans are dead. The jury is out as to whether the active cases bell curve will roll over or not. Small business owners are wiped out. Millions of people are without jobs. A stimulus bill to help the poorest folks in society is nowhere in sight. Despite reality, President Trump touts his great performance in 2020 standing on top of 200,000 dead bodies at a mask-less campaign rally party with the music playing a techno beat; bomp, bomp, bomp. It is the bread and circus days. Entertainment overrides civic responsibility. Every day is a party, until it isn’t.

In positive news, the southern hemisphere is experiencing a very mild flu season. Dr Fauci says the double-whammy that was feared with both the regular flu and covid hitting at the same time this Fall and winter in the northern hemisphere may be less of a risk. Australia had 61K flu cases last year and this year it is a few hundred or less; nothing.

The UK is considering a second lockdown. PM Johnson is under pressure weighing new restrictions versus the population that is growing weary of lockdowns and other draconian rules. Johnson addresses the UK suggesting everyone work from home (WFH is the new trendy acronym) for the next six months; a lockdown-lite. The prime minister says there are, “difficult months to come” and a complete lockdown is not ruled out.  Europe is hit hard with a second wave of the coronavirus and many countries are adopting a lockdown-lite strategy to try and save their economies. Israel begins its second general strict lockdown as the Jewish New Year’s arrives.

Taiwan is given credit for handling the virus perhaps better than any country on the planet. Taiwan learned its lesson from the 2003 SARS outbreak. For years, Taiwan has been focused on keeping PPE and medical supplies fully stocked. Citizens are educated on specific guidelines and actions to take in the event of a pandemic. Mask-wearing is not met with the backlash that it is in countries such as the US and UK that are more free-spirit orientated. Taiwan sprang into action with border checks and quarantines as soon as they heard of odd pneumonia cases appearing in Wuhan. They knew the filthy Chinese communists would lie about the outbreak, which they did while lying in bed with WHO. The US now (floundering) is like Taiwan in 2003.

World leaders address the UN Assembly and the major focus is on the global COVID-19 pandemic. President Trump blames China for the 200K Americans dead and at the same time congratulates himself on handling the virus since the original estimates were for a couple million or more US citizens dying. Donnie has that Hollywood perspective. Only he can slough-off 200K dead Americans in a 10-second news bite. Trump asks UN member countries to hold China accountable for the pandemic specifically calling the outbreak, “The China Virus.” Filthy Chinese communist Dictator Xi refutes Trump’s claims instead encouraging cooperation; this is what dirtbag commies say while they stick a shiv in your ribs. Never trust a filthy communist; they will slit your throat while you sleep.

The US active cases bell curve chart is shown above flattening but not yet rolling over. Hopefully, the blue line will continue lower creating the bell shape so America can declare victory over the virus. If the maroon-colored fractal box after Memorial Day repeats now, the active cases chart would travel higher which is a sad outcome into year-end.

The active cases curve reflects the maximum demand on the healthcare system. The US is in the same window of time after Labor Day like Memorial Day at the end of May. The hope is that the parties, beach fun, opening of bars, restaurants, colleges and schools, campaign rallies, protests, riots and people returning to work will not create another move higher in the chart. Americans are experiencing pandemic fatigue letting their guard down which may also contribute to more cases. Kids that are back in school are in danger of spreading the virus to older folks and teachers.

The new case peak date for the United States occurred on 7/24/20 (blue circle) with 78,615 cases and the peak in active cases occurs on 9/1/20 (green circle) with 2,586,596 ongoing cases. It took 39 days from the new cases peak date to the active cases peak date. As per the Keystone Model, 28 days was the projection, so the active cases curve took an extra week to peak out. The jury remains out, however. On 9/20/20, last Sunday, the active cases hit 2,569,830 teasing a disastrous breakout higher with the active cases chart but the data now remains calm and flat. Keep your fingers, and toes, crossed. The US blew it every time the bell shape tried to form (orange dashed lines); is this time different?

The US new cases chart 7-day moving average is flat. If you reference the US state list below, 35 states are experiencing high new cases over the last month and many in recent days. The 7-day MA averages the last seven days of data and several states have printed new record highs. Therefore, the 7-day MA will likely drift higher over the coming days. This is worrisome since the new cases increasing will lead to the active cases curves rising. The next few days determines the longer-term virus fate of America into year-end and beyond.

The US death chart is shown above. Over 200K Americans have perished. That is four Vietnam’s. The IHME lowers its past dire forecasts now calling for 378K dead Americans by year-end. The worst case scenario is 446K dead. The Keystone Model curve-fits the data and projects that the deaths may remain below 250K this year as long as the active cases bell curve chart rolls over and dies. If the active cases chart begins rising again, all bets are off and there may be over 400K deaths by January.

Many of the most fragile Americans with heart and lung disease, diabetes, and other ailments, and that are also up in years, have fallen to covid. Perhaps the death curve will flatten quicker than the IHME projects since many folks becoming infected with covid now are younger and healthier and will fight the disease easier.

Health experts are not optimistic that the virus pandemic will end in the near term with Fall beginning two days ago. As the weather becomes colder, people will congregate indoors where the virus spreads easier. Building ventilation and filtration is key since the virus droplets can be recirculated in closed spaces. Virus particle droplets remain aerosolized longer in the dryer, less humid air. On top of these concerns, the regular yearly flu strains may further complicate the final months of 2020 (the regular flu and covid hitting at the same time in a couple months is a major worry of Fauci).

Communist China’s coronavirus (COVID-19), developed and released from the bioweapon laboratories in Wuhan (there are two labs not one), has infected over 32 million people around the world murdering over 982K souls (almost one million). 24 million people have recovered. The Chinese communists unleash bioterrorism upon the planet.

The Wuhan Flu, President Trump calls it the China Virus, has attacked and sickened over 7.1 million Americans (2.2% of the 330 million US population; 1 in every 50 citizens), the highest number of cases in the world, murdering nearly 207K United States citizens. 4.4 million people have recovered. America is only 4% of the world’s population but has one-fifth (22%) of the coronavirus cases and one-fifth (21%) of the deaths.

China unleashes bioterrorism upon the world and now brags that the virus is under control in their commie nation with cases approaching zero. The communists are getting back to normal while the rest of the world cleans up their ongoing bioweapon mess. China owes the world restitution for releasing their experimental Wuhan Flu on the world’s population. China must pay for its bioterrorism and crimes against humanity.

President Trump is stepping up the rhetoric against red China. US-China relations have soured since the Chinese released the virus upon the world. Both countries are hassling and expelling foreign journalists and diplomats from their respective nations. The UN rhetoric is nasty with US and Chinese officials exchanging barbs. There is a whiff of protectionism in the air which exacerbated the Great Depression in the 1930’s. Trump mentions a US-China decoupling and says, “I’ll limit economic ties with China.”

When the active cases chart above was flattening and rolling over in late May and early June as a sign that the pandemic was abating, President Trump needed to be encouraging mask-wearing and a final couple-week push to stay home as much as possible (through Memorial Day) to nip the virus in the bud like most other nations. He did not and the opportunity was lost.

Trump still does not encourage mask wearing or social distancing. The pandemic remains a chaotic and confusing mess for citizens which increases the fear and angst in the population. People have been feeling a bit more comfortable about the direction of the pandemic over the last couple weeks but if the active cases turns upwards again, the US is screwed into year-end. People will experience mental anguish if the active cases chart travels upward again; it will mean the holidays will be lousy this year.

The USA has the greatest number of total coronavirus cases in the world followed by India, Brazil, Russia, Colombia, Peru, Mexico, Spain, South Africa, Argentina, France, Chile, Iran, UK, Bangladesh, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Turkey, Italy, Philippines and Germany. Columbia and Peru switch places. Spain and South Africa switch places. France moves up two slots on the list. Iraq moves up four positions on the list (getting worse). Philippines appears on the list.

An update for The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model (TKSCIRM) is provided since another 10-day period passes, actually 12 days this time, and more data and information are available. This is Article 20 in the coronavirus series that provides real-time information for historians, teachers, students, journalists, economists, market participants, corporate executives, financial managers, doctors, nurses, medical personnel, researchers, public officials and politicians studying the COVID-19 pandemic. This twentieth article is published on Thursday, 9/24/20.

The Keystone Speculator’s Coronavirus Series of Articles are the only real-time source of information available continuously chronicling the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Readers live and breathe the pandemic, the worst in a century, as it occurs in real-time, from the beginning.

The first article in the coronavirus series is US Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infections Chart 3/15/20; The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model; US COVID-19 Infections Surpass 3,300; Federal Reserve Blinks and Cuts Interest Rates to the Zero Bound Embracing ZIRP and Announcing $700 Billion QE Program; US Futures Tank Limit-Down; Coronavirus Archive Article 1 published 3/15/20.

The second article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 3/24/20; Italy Daily Cases Leveling Off; US Daily Cases Continue Rising; Congress Negotiating Fiscal Stimulus Bill; Coronavirus Archive Article 2 published 3/24/20.

The third article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/3/20; Italy Daily Active Cases Peaking; United States Faces Ugly Coronavirus Pain Ahead; US Monthly Jobs Report; Coronavirus Archive Article 3 published 4/3/20.

The fourth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/13/20; US Active Cases Continue Rising; India, Indonesia, Singapore, Japan, Russia, Peru, Ecuador and UK Headed for Trouble; Second Wave Worries; President Trump Ushers in Age of MMT (Modern Monetary Theory (Limitless Spending)); Rampant Job Losses; People in Need; Finger-Pointing Begins; Worldwide COVID-19 Cases Top 2 Million; Coronavirus Archive Article 4 published 4/13/20.

The fifth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/23/20; Australia, South Korea, Switzerland, Germany, Hong Kong, Taiwan and China are Coronavirus Success Stories; Italy, France and Spain Finally at Top of Active Case Bell Curve; UK, Ecuador, Japan, Turkey, Peru, Brazil, Canada, Indonesia, India, Russia, Mexico and Singapore Brace for Virus Pain; Countries Anxious to Restart Economies; “Flattening the Curve” Term Misused; Ongoing Shortages of Virus Testing Supplies and PPE (Personal Protective equipment); Congress Passes $484 Billion Spending Bill; US COVID-19 Deaths Top 50,000; GRIM VIRUS NEWS 4/25/20; Coronavirus Archive Article 5 published on 4/23/20.

The sixth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate model Update 5/3/20; America Restarts Economy as New Virus Cases Increase; US Active Cases Not Expected to Peak Until 5/21/20; 68K Americans Dead from COVID-19 More Than Vietnam War; Testing Deficiencies Continue; Coronavirus Preferentially Hurts Black Community; Brazil, Nigeria, South Africa, India, Russia, Mexico and Chile Descend Into COVID-19 Hell this Month; US-China Relations Collapsing; President Trump Says 100K People May Die; U of W Model Says 134K May Die in US; Coronavirus Article 6 published on 5/3/20.

The seventh article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 5/14/20; Russia, India, Nigeria, Brazil, UK and Philippines Remain Mired in Virus Trouble; South Africa, Indonesia, Chile, Peru and Mexico are in COVID-19 Hell; America Restarts Economy Before Flattening the Curve; Texas, California, New Jersey and New York Worst Virus States; Testing Deficiencies Persist; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Second Wave Fears; Coronavirus Article 7 published on 5/14/20.

The eighth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 5/24/20; Math Explains the Black and Latino Infections and Ongoing Coronavirus Zeitgeist; Russia, Poland, Brazil, Peru, Bolivia, Chile, Argentina, Columbia, Honduras, Mexico, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Nigeria, Kenya, Egypt and South Africa in COVID-19 Hell; America Restarts Economy; US Active Cases Curve Finally Flattens; New York, Florida, Ohio, Washington, California, Texas, Arkansas and North Carolina are Worst States Not Yet Able to Flatten the Curve; Coronavirus Tragedy Turns Political; President Trump Refuses to Wear a Mouth Diaper (Face Mask); Hertz Goes Bankrupt; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Second Wave Fears; Trump Golfs; US DEATHS EXCEED 100,000; Coronavirus Article 8 published on 5/24/20.

The ninth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/3/20; Indonesia, Philippines, Egypt, Kenya, South Africa, Mexico, Honduras, Columbia, Brazil, Peru, Bolivia, Chile, Argentina, Bangladesh, Pakistan and India are in COVID-19 Hell; America Continues Reopening the Economy; US Active Cases Curve Finally Flattens (Tentatively); Texas, Arkansas, North Carolina and California are Troubled States; Second Wave Worries Continue; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Population Becoming Complacent About COVID-19; Coronavirus Article 9 published on 6/3/20.

The tenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/13/20; Philippines, Peru, Iran, Kenya, Poland, Sweden, India, Indonesia, Honduras, Brazil, Bolivia, Chile, Pakistan, Bangladesh, South Africa, Egypt, Columbia and Argentina are in COVID-19 Hell; US Virus Cases Rising in Many States Due to Increased Testing, Reopening the Economy, Protests and Large Groups Gathering; Arizona, Texas, Arkansas, South Carolina, North Carolina, California and Florida are in Serious Trouble; President Trump Moves Republican Convention to Florida Where Virus Cases are Spiking; Protests and Riots Increase Around the World; US Police Under Scrutiny for Racial Injustice; Public Health Authorities Clueless; Coronavirus Article 10 published on 6/13/20.

The eleventh article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/23/20; Pandemic in the Sunbelt (US South and West); Arizona, California, Texas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Florida, Carolina’s, Arkansas and New Mexico are US Hot-Spots; Houston Running Out of Beds; South Asia, America’s and Africa Experiencing COVID-19 Hell; US, Bolivia, Argentina, Guatemala, India and Philippines are in Serious Trouble; Deteriorating US-China Relations and Increasing US COVID-19 Cases Creating Market Angst; Coronavirus Article 11 published on 6/23/20.

The twelfth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 7/4/20; US Experiencing Dramatic Uptick in Cases as President Trump and Vice President Pence Signal the All-Clear; Ohio, Florida, Carolina’s, Arkansas, Georgia, California, Alabama, Arizona, Texas and Oklahoma are in COVID-19 Hell; Texas, Arizona and Florida are Reaching Limits on ICU Beds; US, Bolivia, Argentina, Colombia, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Philippines, Indonesia, India, Bangladesh, South Africa and Kenya are in Serious Coronavirus Trouble; COVID-19 Timeline; Coronavirus Article 12 published on 7/4/20.

The thirteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 7/14/20; President Trump Pressures States to Reopen Schools; Donnie Finally Dons a Face Diaper; US Death Numbers Controversy Explained; RNC (Republican) Convention in Jeopardy; Kansas, Washington, Tennessee, Alaska, the Carolina’s, Idaho, Wisconsin, Arkansas, Oregon, Ohio, Louisiana, Georgia, Utah, Montana, Alabama, Oklahoma, Missouri and Kentucky Join Florida, Texas, Arizona and California in the Coronavirus Cesspool; Oman, India, El Salvador, Bolivia, Argentina, South Africa, Romania, Mexico, Colombia and USA are in COVID-19 Hell; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Italy Textbook Bell Curve; New Kazakhstan Virus; Coronavirus Article 13 published on 7/14/20.

The fourteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 7/24/20; President Trump Reverses Course Touting Mask Use and Restarting Coronavirus Press Conferences; Over 20 Million Americans Remain Unemployed; New Mexico, Alabama, Wisconsin, Arkansas, Alaska, North Carolina, California, Oklahoma and Missouri are the Most-Infected States; US Healthcare System is Under Heavy Pressure Through August; Australia, Hong Kong and Japan Hit with Second Waves; India, El Salvador, Argentina, South Africa, Romania, Brazil, Bolivia, Mexico, Kazakhstan, Colombia, Kenya and United States are Most-Infected Nations; US-China Tensions Escalate; US Congress Negotiating Another Stimulus Bill; Coronavirus Article 14 published on 7/24/20.

The fifteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 8/3/20; Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, Spain and Peru Handling Second Wave; Philippines, Colombia, Bolivia, Mexico, India, Ukraine, El Salvador, Peru, Spain, Argentina, Romania and Brazil in COVID-19 Hell; 41 US States Show Active Cases Curves Continuing Higher; 9 US States are in a Second Wave; Coronavirus Particle Size Analysis and Aerosol Behavior; Public Restrooms and Fecal Matter May Be Major Factors in Virus Transmission; Testing Troubles Continue; AstraZeneca Granted Protection from Vaccine Liability; Coronavirus Article 15 published on 8/3/20.

The sixteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 8/13/20; Finally Good Pandemic News for the United States; Europe Slipping Into Second Wave Behavior; Most Problematic Virus-Infected Nations are India, Philippines, Romania, Ukraine, Iraq, Colombia, Peru, Bolivia, Argentina, El Salvador, Netherlands, Belgium, France and Spain; Worst US States are Kentucky, California, Mississippi, Illinois, Indiana, Arkansas, Virginia, Idaho, Wisconsin, North Dakota and Hawaii; US Congress Deadlocked on Stimulus Bill After President Trump Signs Executive Order; US Testing Troubles Continue; Good News Turns Bad with US Active Cases Resuming the Uptrend; Coronavirus Article 16 published on 8/13/20.

The seventeenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 8/23/20; US is Struggling to ‘Flatten the Curve’; Australia, Hong Kong and Japan Defeat the Second Wave; European Countries Mired in Second Wave Include France, Spain, Italy, Belgium, Netherlands, Finland, Ireland, Austria, Switzerland, Germany, Greece, Poland and Czechia; Peru, Nepal, Turkey and UAE are also in Second Waves; Worst Countries are India, Ukraine, UAE, Moldova, Croatia, Albania, Greece, Poland, Switzerland, Italy and France; North Korea in Famine; 9 US States in Second Wave; Worst US States are Illinois, South Dakota, North Dakota, Michigan, Iowa, Wyoming, Kansas, Missouri, North Carolina, Delaware, Hawaii, Kentucky and California; US Congress is on Vacation Remaining Deadlocked on Stimulus Bill; RNC Convention Begins; Coronavirus Article 17 published on 8/23/20.

The eighteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 9/2/20; US Unable to ‘Flatten the Curve’; Countries with Worst New Cases are India, UAE, Czechia, Turkey, Ireland, Finland, Spain, Costa Rica, Canada, Italy, Nepal, Peru, Honduras, Indonesia, Ukraine, France and Greece; Europe Deals with Second Wave; Worst US States are West Virginia, Mississippi, Kansas, South Dakota, North Dakota, South Carolina, Illinois, Iowa, Alabama, Rhode Island, Delaware, Hawaii, Kentucky, Virginia, Alaska, Oregon, Georgia and Arizona; US Congress Continues Fiscal Stimulus Talks; Polls Tighten in US Presidential Race;  Coronavirus Article 18 published on 9/2/20.

The nineteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 9/12/20; United States Finally Flattening the Active Cases Bell Curve Chart; President Trump Admits He Downplayed Virus; US Schools and Colleges Reopen; 2% of Americans Have Been or Are Infected with Coronavirus; Second Wave Consumes Europe; 31 Nations Report Increases in New Cases This Month; 26 Countries Report Increases in New Cases in Last Two Days; New Cases Spike in 15 US States in Last 9 Days; 28 US States Cannot Yet Flatten the Curve; Congress Unable to Agree on Stimulus Bill; COVID-19 Has Killed Over 200,000 Americans; Coronavirus Article 19 published on 9/12/20.

The Worldometer web site is useful in tracking coronavirus (COVID-19) around the world and its link is provided. Many charts in the coronavirus series of articles are provided courtesy of Worldometer and annotated by Keystone.

The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model (TKSCIRM) forecasts the peak date in active coronavirus cases for any country or region which represents the maximum strain on medical personnel and facilities. The Keystone Model monitors the Worldometer new case data for a country or region and identifies the date of the peak in new cases (New Case Peak Date). Once this occurs, the active case bell curve will peak in 1 to 4 weeks depending on how the virus situation is handled.

If the country, region or state is well-prepared, the active cases will peak 11 days, on average, after the new cases peak (think South Korea, Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, etc..). Even the second wave outbreaks in Australia, Hong Kong and Japan are brought under control in the same time period as the initial wave. If the country is not well-prepared, like the US, the active cases will peak 28 days after the peak in new cases. Same for any US state. Add 28 days to the New Cases Peak Date to arrive at the Projected Active Cases Peak Date.

The top of the bell curve pattern on the active cases chart is important since it represents the maximum strain on medical facilities and healthcare personnel. Hospitalization data may be retreating but the active cases curve is far more important. People remain under doctor’s care with fatigue and other symptoms after they recover from the worst of the virus which creates an ongoing demand on the healthcare system.  Other semi-recovered patients are sent home or to other medical facilities or nursing homes and not counted in the hospitalization data but they remain a strain on the medical system. The coronavirus pandemic is only under control when the active cases curve rolls over lower forming the bell shape.

After many months, the US active cases curve finally flattens and hopefully will move lower to create the bell shape. The discussion about ‘flattening the curve’ pertains to the active cases bell curve chart and not to the new cases bar chart. The media and citizens are confused with the charts and data since medical officials and politicians do not properly explain or understand these concepts themselves. Perhaps they want to keep the public in the dark.

The Keystone Model uses the new case peak date for forecasting the peak in the active cases bell curve. Any subsequent higher new case numbers will create a new case peak date. Also, if the number of new cases is within 8% of the prior peak, that new date becomes the new case peak date where 28 days is added (or 11 days for nations that handle the virus better) to project when the peak in the active cases chart will occur. The behavior of higher high new case numbers signals that the virus is getting worse in that region. Obviously, all nations want their new cases to trend lower and drop to zero.

The peak new case date for the US is 7/24/20 with 78,956 new cases in one day. Adding 28 days, provides a target date of 8/21/20 for the US active cases to peak and it peaked on 9/1/20 (as long as the Labor Day party weekend and schools reopening do not create a reacceleration in new cases). Reference the chart above.

The nations that have weathered the latest virus storm with their active cases charts rolling over to form the bell shape are the United States of America (tentatively; the curve above is flat as a pancake but remains a coin-toss), Brazil, Colombia, Peru, South Africa, Chile, Bangladesh, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Bolivia, Qatar, Dominican Republic, Panama, Kazakhstan, Philippines (data is messy), Egypt, Kuwait, Sweden (data is incomplete), Guatemala, China, Japan, Australia, South Korea, Honduras, Venezuela, Bahrain, Nigeria, Singapore, El Salvador (although a second wave may be on the way) and Croatia.

The 40 worst global hotspots that have not yet flattened the curve are highlighted in the list below with their projected peaks in active cases dates (maximum stress on healthcare workers and medical system) provided.

Mexico
8/2/20 New Case Peak Date
8/30/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (chart may have peaked 9/14/20)
 
Ethiopia
8/28/20 New Case Peak Date
9/25/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (chart continues higher)
 
Albania
9/14/20 New Case Peak Date
10/12/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Bahrain (Second Wave)
9/16/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
10/14/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days; data is problematic)
 
Czechia (Second Wave)
9/17/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
9/28/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
Morocco (Fourth Wave)
9/18/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
9/29/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
Costa Rica
9/18/20 New Case Peak Date
10/16/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Italy (Second Wave)
9/18/20 New Case Peak Date
10/16/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Belgium (Second Wave)
9/18/20 New Case Peak Date
10/16/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Nepal (Second Wave)
9/18/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
10/9/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days; data is problematic)
 
India
9/19/20 New Case Peak Date
10/17/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (data is problematic)
 
Austria (Second Wave)
9/19/20 New Case Peak Date
9/30/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days; chart spiking higher)
 
Ireland (Second Wave)
9/20/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases since mid-May)
10/1/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days; chart is moving higher)
 
Oman (Second Wave)
9/20/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases since mid-July)
10/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
Hungary (Second Wave)
9/20/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
10/20/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Canada (Second Wave)
9/21/20 New Case Peak Date (highest cases since April and early May)
10/19/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Greece (Second Wave)
9/21/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
10/2/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days; data is problematic)
 
Switzerland (Second Wave)
9/21/20 New Case Peak Date (huge spike highest new cases since 4/1/20)
10/19/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Finland (Second Wave)
9/22/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases since early May)
10/3/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days; chart is moving higher)
 
Iraq
9/23/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
10/21/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Israel (Third Wave)
9/23/20 New Case Peak Date (enormous spike higher; highest new cases ever)
10/4/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
Iran (Third Wave)
9/23/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever on 9/22 and 9/23)
10/21/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
UAE (Second Wave)
9/23/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
10/21/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Turkey (Second Wave)
9/23/20 New Case Peak Date (several days of highest new cases since May)
10/21/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Russia (Second Wave)
9/23/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases since mid-July)
10/21/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Ukraine
9/23/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever on 9/17 and 9/23)
10/21/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
 
Romania (Second Wave)
9/23/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
10/21/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days; data is problematic)
 
Poland (Third Wave)
9/23/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever on 9/19 and 9/23)
10/4/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
Germany (Second Wave)
9/23/20 New Case Peak Date
10/4/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
France (Second Wave)
9/23/20 New Case Peak Date
10/21/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Netherlands (Second Wave) (limited data hampers analysis)
9/23/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
10/21/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Spain (Second Wave) (limited data hampers analysis)
9/23/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
10/21/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Portugal (Second Wave)
9/23/20 New Case Peak Date
10/21/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
UK (Second Wave) (limited data hampers analysis)
9/23/20 New Case Peak Date (only higher new case day is 4/10/20)
10/21/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Moldova
9/23/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
10/21/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Ecuador (Third Wave) (data is problematic)
9/23/20 New Case Peak Date
10/21/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Belarus (Second Wave)
9/23/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases since late June early July)
10/21/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Argentina (Second Wave) (data is problematic)
9/23/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever on 9/17 and 9/23)
10/21/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Indonesia
9/23/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
10/21/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

 

North Korea (no virus data is available; the hermit kingdom is in famine; there are rumors that Kim Jong-un may be dead; a military parade is planned in a couple weeks so the world can see if the murderous dictator is still kicking, or not)

 

One of the things that catches your attention in the data is the countries that are printing new all-time highs in new cases. The outbreaks, as measured by the number of new cases, are larger than in the late winter and springtime!

 

Indonesia, Argentina, Belarus, Ecuador, Moldova, UK, Portugal, Spain, Netherlands, France, Germany, Poland, Romania, Ukraine, Russia, Turkey, UAE, Iran, Israel, Iraq, Finland, Switzerland, Greece, Canada, Hungary, Oman, Ireland, Austria, India, Nepal, Belgium, Italy, Costa Rica, Morocco, Czechia and Bahrain are the worst virus nations on earth with the fastest accelerations of new cases occurring.

 

Europe is in trouble as the list highlights. Even eastern Europe that bleeds into Ukraine, Turkey and Russia. Poland is hit with a third wave. The UK is in COVID-19 Hell which forced Prime Minister Johnson to impose new lockdown-lite rules. Europe’s economy is teetering on the edge so the continent wants to keep businesses open and workers working as much as possible but considering the rampant ongoing spread of coronavirus, they may be screwed. If Europe sinks economically, however, so will the US and China. Note to self; cancel the trip to Europe.

 

The France active cases chart is shown above. The curve has gone straight vertical. France is in deep trouble. The virus is spreading like wildfire. The Keystone Model does not forecast a top in the active cases curve (maximum strain on medical facilities) until 10/21/20. France is like the US and other Western countries; people like to party. The French could not put down their wine, baguette and cigarettes; it was too much to ask so now they pay the price for their evening fun and comingling. To many it was probably worth it. Oui, oui, mon cheri.

 

India remains in the coronavirus quagmire but at least shows some stabilization and perhaps a way out of the pandemic nightmare. Canada leaves its guard down as evidenced by the new cases spiking higher. PM Trudeau runs to a microphone and proclaims that he will do whatever it takes to fight the virus. The Canucks must be snuggling to keep warm these days. Israel imposes a strict lockdown so it will be interesting to see if they bring covid under control quickly, or not.

 

The shame of the pandemic is that free societies are hurt more than communist and dictatorial governments. China brought the virus under control quickly because they told the population to stay at home and they mean it. If you walk outside you receive a bullet in your head and your family is sent a bill for the cost of the bullet. This draconian society will obviously defeat a virus faster than Western cultures that like to roam around and experience life in a more carefree manner.

 

Watch for King Donnie to welcome Morocco into the Middle East/Northern Africa peace agreement alongside UAE and Bahrain. The coronavirus is hitting Morocco hard and they likely need help fighting the pandemic so they will probably play nice and join the peace club and in return receive help from the West in fighting the virus. Oman and others are in the same virus boat.

 

For America, the troubled US states are highlighted below with their projections on when the active cases curve will peak-out (max strain on healthcare system) as per the Keystone Model. The top 14 states for total virus cases, from highest to lowest, are California (worst), Texas, Florida, New York, Georgia, Illinois, Arizona, New Jersey, North Carolina, Tennessee, Louisiana, Pennsylvania, Alabama and Ohio. The list has not changed over the last three weeks.

 

Texas, Florida, Illinois, Arizona, Pennsylvania and Ohio are key battleground states for the presidential election on 11/3/20 so voters may choose a candidate depending on how the virus plays out over the next 40 days. Pennsylvania is extremely important to both Trump and Biden and a second wave is starting to appear in the Keystone State.

 

Typically, the future president, be it Trump reelected or Biden elected, will win Florida and Ohio. Florida election results should be known by about 9 PM EST on 11/3/20 and that should indicate which silver-haired white guy will win.

 

The 15 US states that have successfully created the bell shape on the active cases chart are Texas, Florida, New York, New Jersey (carefully watch for a potential second wave starting), North Carolina (messy data), Tennessee (data is problematic), Louisiana, Ohio, Massachusetts (but watch for a potential second wave starting), Mississippi, Nevada, Connecticut, New Mexico (but stay on guard since a second wave may be starting), District of Columbia (DC), New Hampshire (but watch out for a second wave) and Vermont.

 

Below is a listing of the 35 states having the most trouble in dealing with the covid pandemic. The worst states are at the bottom of the list. California is of grave concern since its active cases chart prints a new higher high and since it is such a big state, this may push the US active cases curve chart higher which would create major trouble into year-end.

 

Georgia
New Case Peak Date 7/24/20 (8/8/20 is a big new cases day)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/21/20 (may have peaked 9/19/20)
 
Maryland (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 7/25/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/21/20 (chart continues higher)
 
Alaska
New Case Peak Date 7/26/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/23/20 (chart may have peaked 9/21/20)
 
Virginia (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 8/7/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 9/4/20 (chart continues higher)
 
California
New Case Peak Date 8/11/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 9/8/20 (chart continues higher; data is problematic)
 
Kentucky
New Case Peak Date 8/12/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 9/9/20 (chart continues higher)
 
Delaware (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 8/14/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 9/11/20 (chart continues higher)
 
Indiana (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 8/24/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 9/21/20 (data is problematic)
 
Alabama
New Case Peak Date 8/26/20 (highest cases since early August)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 9/23/20 (chart chopping sideways)
 
Iowa
New Case Peak Date 8/28/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 9/25/20 (chart may have peaked 9/21/20)
 
Hawaii
New Case Peak Date 9/2/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 9/30/20
 
Maine (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 9/3/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 10/1/20 (data is problematic)


Illinois (Second Wave) (data is problematic)
New Case Peak Date 9/4/20 (highest cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 10/2/20
 
Rhode Island (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 9/8/20 (highest new cases since April and May)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 10/6/20
 
Arkansas
New Case Peak Date 9/11/20 (highest cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 10/9/20
 
West Virginia
New Case Peak Date 9/12/20 (highest cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 10/10/20
 
South Carolina (data is problematic)
New Case Peak Date 9/13/20 (highest cases since July)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 10/11/20
 
Pennsylvania (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 9/14/20 (highest cases since 5/8/20)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 10/14/20
 
Arizona
New Case Peak Date 9/17/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 10/15/20 (chart continues higher; data is problematic)
 
Wisconsin (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 9/18/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 10/16/20
 
Oklahoma
New Case Peak Date 9/19/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 10/17/20
 
Utah (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 9/19/20 (highest new cases on 9/18 and 9/19)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 10/17/20
 
Minnesota (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 9/20/20 (highest cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 10/18/20
 
Michigan (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 9/21/20 (highest new cases since early April)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 10/19/20
 
Washington
New Case Peak Date 9/21/20 (highest new cases since early August)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 10/19/20
 
Idaho
New Case Peak Date 9/22/20 (highest new cases since early August)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 10/20/20
 
Montana (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 9/22/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 10/20/20 (data is problematic)
 
Missouri
New Case Peak Date 9/22/20 (highest cases ever on 8/31 and 9/22)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 10/20/20
 
Oregon
New Case Peak Date 9/22/20 (highest new cases since August)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 10/20/20 (chart continues higher)
 
Colorado (Third Wave)
New Case Peak Date 9/23/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 10/21/20
 
South Dakota (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 9/23/20 (highest cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 10/21/20
 
North Dakota (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 9/23/20 (highest cases ever on 9/18 and 9/23)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 10/21/20
 
Kansas
New Case Peak Date 9/23/20 (highest new cases ever on 9/21)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 10/21/20
 
Nebraska (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 9/23/20 (highest new cases since April and May)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 10/21/20
 
Wyoming
New Case Peak Date 9/23/20 (highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 10/21/20

 

That is a sad picture above. With so many states printing the highest new cases ever and some with new cases at highs going back to the April and May highs, the US active cases curve may start moving higher again. Pray that it does not. America is at the key inflection point a couple weeks beyond the Labor Day parties and a week or two into schools and universities reopening. Wil the active cases bell curve chart rollover as everyone hopes, or will Americans be slapped in their mask-less faces as the curve spikes higher?

 

The worst virus states are Wyoming, Nebraska, Kansas, North Dakota, South Dakota, Colorado, Oregon, Missouri, Montana, Idaho, Washington, Michigan, Minnesota, Utah, Oklahoma, Wisconsin and Arizona. Many are in the heart of the Midwest where Trump needs the votes. The Dakota’s are smacked hard with the lingering effects of the Sturgis motorcycle rally. Everyone had their fun and they continue to pay the price. Utah issues an executive order telling citizens to stay at home.

 

Trump’s mask-less campaign rallies help create the poor numbers in Michigan, Oklahoma, Arizona and elsewhere. Colorado is in a third wave. Florida is a key state in the election that both Trump and Biden need to win. The polls show a dead heat. Trump is kissing Cuban butts today to scrounge up votes. Florida has rolled-over its active cases chart so that is a plus for Donnie. Social unrest, protests and riots are occurring in Wisconsin, Oregon, Washington and Michigan which contribute to the spread of covid.

 

The active cases curve continues higher for the 35 states listed above, or the new cases have printed new highs over the last couple days, which will likely lead to a ramping higher of the active cases chart.

 

For any state that has not yet reached its peak in the active cases curve, simply identify what day the new cases peak and add 28 days to that date to project when the top of the bell curve will occur on the active cases chart as per the Keystone Model. If subsequent new case numbers exceed the new case peak date’s number, or are within 8% of the new case peak date, that new date becomes the new case peak date and 28 days is added to project the active cases peak load. The states at the bottom of the list will be the last to see relief for their healthcare workers and medical equipment.

 

Monitor the US active cases bell curve chart provided above to see if it continues flattening and rolling over to provide a much-needed rest for the healthcare workers, emergency medics and medical equipment. Considering the increase in new cases and ongoing higher active cases curves in the 35 states listed above, the road ahead does not appear rosy but for now, one can hope that the US active cases curve will continue rolling over. The answer will be known in the few days ahead. If the US active cases curve begins moving higher again, America will be screwed into year-end. The disappointment and increase in infections would demoralize much of the population.

 

The US government is sponsoring commercials on television advising people to stay home, social distance, wash hands and wear masks but many folks are experiencing pandemic fatigue and letting their guard down. Others see that President Trump refuses to wear a mask so they refuse as well. Trump, however, does not tell his mask-less followers that he is tested each day for the virus and his health is guarded in many ways unavailable to the huddled masses worshipping at his feet. Missouri republican Governor Parson, who is lax about wearing a mask, tests positive for covid. His wife also tests positive.

 

The US stock market has been selling off in recent days. The economy will falter unless Congress provides a stimulus bill but Speaker Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin continue talking past each other. Mnuchin and Fed Chairman Powell testified on the Hill this week touting the need for fiscal stimulus.

 

The S&P 500 Index, which is the United States stock market, drops -10% off its record high at 3588 three weeks ago which is deemed a ‘correction’. The SPX (ticker symbol for the S&P 500) pops today and is trying to hold the pullback to the 3225 support area. President Trump rates his success according to the stock market. The election is 40 days away. China’s coronavirus bioweapon has killed 207,262 Americans. Dictator Xi dances with glee.

Note Added Sunday Morning, 9/27/20: Argentina is struggling to contain the coronavirus. Medical workers are protesting in the streets asking for more government support; some say the hospital system is on the brink of collapse. Travel is suspended in and out of Argentina until 10/11/20. Since Brazil continues fighting covid, the Rio de Janeiro carnival celebration is cancelled until October 2011. There are over 700 people dying of covid per day in Brazil. WHO says a shortage of flu (influenza) vaccines may occur around the world. These medical institutions have lost all credibility; WHO lays in bed with the filthy Chinese communists while the CDC receives its marching orders from King Donnie. WHO is likely saying there is a shortage of flu shots to encourage people to get one. If you tell people there is a shortage they are more prone to quickly hurry and get a flu shot for fear of missing out. It is human nature. Europe remains in COVID-19 Hell with nations taking different approaches in handling the second wave outbreak. There is increased chatter and worry in America that the new virus outbreak in Europe will spread across the pond to the United States like the springtime. A recent poll shows only one dozen US states report public mask use above 50%. America does not like masks. CDC Director Redfield says more than 90% of the country remains susceptible to contracting covid. Medical studies indicate that only about 10% of the population has had a virus infection so a path to herd immunity, that Trump referred to as herd mentality in an interview a few days ago, that requires about 50% to 70% of the population exposed to the virus, remains daunting. Virginia democrat Governor Northam, his wife and a couple assistants on the staff test positive for coronavirus. Congress cannot agree on a fiscal stimulus bill. This will lead to further social unrest in the weeks and months ahead. President Trump says he can go up to $1.5 trillion for the spending bill while democrats remain at $2.4 trillion. Everyone's a big spender in the bread and circus days. Such are the machinations of politicians overseeing the collapse of the crony capitalism system. Florida republican Governor DeSantis, that remains on the Trump train from the start not believing the virus is that big a deal, lifts all restrictions statewide on restaurants and bars. DeSanits proclaims, "Every business has the right to operate." He is correct but in the age of George Orwell's 1984, government oversight now rules this pandemic land. DeSantis decrees that Florida will host the Superbowl (NFL (American football) championship game) on 2/7/21 with a full stadium. President Trump continues the campaign rallies which works out well since he can catch some snooze time on Air Force One. Trump proclaims that the coronavirus "affects virtually nobody." The techno-beat plays in the background; bomp, bomp, bomp. Donnie provides lots of entertainment. Look at what the country has become. A president downplays and makes jokes about a virus, thumbing his nose at guidelines the public is supposed to follow, while he stands on top of over 200,000 dead bodies. It is fascinating to watch. Trump nominates Amy Coney Barrett as a justice for the Supreme Court with the presidential election only 37 days away. Ginsburg is lying in state in the Capitol's Statuary Hall; her body still warm. Americans are so polarized that they do not see that the Supreme Court is simply another corrupt institution. There is no talk about a court that is neutral across the board anymore. The justices are separated according to their political affiliation either democrat or republican and that is the way they are expected to vote. This is par for the course as the crony capitalism systems crumbles. On 9/25/20, the US reports 53,629 new virus cases the highest since mid-August. In positive news, the US active cases chart shown above continues to flatten. The chart needs to roll over lower to start to form the bell shape before victory can be claimed. America remains in the window after the Labor Day holiday and school and colleges reopening so the jury remains out as to whether an uptick in new cases will occur, or not. This is an extremely critical time in the coronavirus saga. America could have gained control of the virus in late May and early June but chose to party instead. After several months, the US is in the same place capable of finally getting a handle on the virus. The coming days will tell the tale. The active cases chart dictates the fate of America going forward.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 9/29/20: A sad milestone occurs this week. THE WORLD'S CORONAVIRUS DEATH TOLL EXCEEDS 1 MILLION PEOPLE. China's bioterrorism weapon continues wreaking havoc, mayhem and death around the globe. US Vice President Pence says he expects the new cases to increase in the days ahead. President Trump says four vaccines are in final stages. The president proclaims that upon approval, millions of doses of the vaccine will be distributed to Americans within 24 hours. Why does Donnie feel the need to embellish and exaggerate every news item? When he talks pie-in-the-sky, he loses credibility. That's Our Donnie. The Whitehouse clarifies the president's statement saying millions of doses will be available to people by the end of the year. The Trump administration says the Abbott Laboratories BinaxNow rapid covid tests are being distributed to states over the next few weeks which will be a huge help for the poorer areas of the US and communities of color. Doctors say children under 10 or 11 years old are less susceptible to the virus and recover faster. Teens and adolescents are contracting the virus in a similar manner as adults. CDC Director Redfield is heard saying that Dr Atlas, who now runs the Whitehouse virus task force, and is a radiologist not a virologist, provides misinformation to the president and most things he says are wrong. Fauci jumps on board that thinking referring to Atlas as an "outlier." Atlas says the other doctors are trying to destroy his reputation. Atlas does a good job of that himself; he took the job knowing that he is there to perform the bidding of Trump and paint a happy, rosy picture of coronavirus and the handling of the pandemic. Atlas decrees that the president follows all the CDC and other guidelines for combatting the virus--as a video plays in the background showing Trump without a mask interacting with others without masks and no one following social distancing rules. The pandemic is a mess. Thankfully, the active cases bell curve chart continues to flatten although the jury remains out since it did not roll over as yet to form the bell shape. These days are critically important to see if America can get the upper hand on the virus, or, if we fail again.

Note Added Wednesday Morning, 9/30/20: Regeneron (REGN) reports encouraging results with treating coronavirus patients with their therapeutic drug REGN-COV2. This good news is overshadowed by the first presidential debate that turns into a shouting match between two corrupt silver-haired white guys. Trump has ushered in the age of insult politics. Americans tear each other down these days. Trump's approval rating is at 42% and he would be the lowest-rated president to ever win reelection (2 out of every 5 people think Trump is doing a good job; 3 out of 5 Americans do not approve of his job performance). President Obama is currently the lowest-rated having a 49% approval rating when he won reelection. Two more presidential arguments, er, debates are scheduled on 10/15/20 and 10/22/20. The circus does not end until the election on 11/3/20. It may not end then. After the argumentative debate last evening, S&P futures are down more than -40 points. Wall Street does not like uncertainty and the statements by Trump that the election will be rigged and mail-in voting is dishonest, that type of thing, creates the thinking that either side that loses will contest the election creating chaos after the election. S&P futures moderate off the lows down -28 or -0.8% not that big a retreat. Analysts and traders likely do not know what to make of it all. Biden says Trump panicked with the covid pandemic and over 200K people are dead. The president repeats the straw man argument that 2 million people would have died if it was not for his great handling of the pandemic.

Note Added Wednesday Morning, 9/30/20: RS&P futures tank -45 points and more after the presidential argument, er, debate, but stocks recover during the day and the SPX finishes up 28 points, +0.8%, to 3363, stick-saved by Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and House Leader Pelosi hinting at progress in the fiscal stimulus bill. The republicans (Mnuchin) are up to $1.5 trillion while the democrats (Pelosi) have come down to $2.2 trillion. Mnuchin says the two sides should be able to reach a deal. REGN finishes the day down -2.4%. The CDC extends the ban on cruise lines (vacation ships) through 10/31/20 but this was after the Whitehouse intervened. The CDC wanted to extend the ban into February 2021 but King Trump, Prince Pence and the Royal Court muscled the CDC into reducing the time. The CDC has lost credibility. The pandemic is a mess. Scientists say cats can pass covid and recommend that anyone quarantined should also keep their cat/s indoors. Around this homestead, Blacky the Cat, a Bombay beauty, rules the roost and it would be impossible to keep him inside. Doctors are calling attention to the similarities of the coronavirus pandemic and the great flu outbreak in 2018. The pandemic one hundred years ago began in March, and ebbed and flowed through the summer, then came on with a killing vengeance in the Fall and winter. Chicago bans travel from 22 states. People are getting nutso out there with communities charging fines if new rules are not followed precisely. Many state and local governments are drunk with power. Coronavirus continues to damage the US economy as the filthy Chinese communists, that released the covid bioweapon on the world, enjoy a bustling, recovering economy. The aid for US airlines ends today so mass layoffs are on the come. This may provide an impetus for Mnuchin and Pelosi to get together. Layoffs are increasing. Walt Disney cans 30K workers. Shell dumps 9K employees. Banks and financial institutions are starting to throw folks into the parking lot dumpster. Isn't it funny? The boss told you a few weeks ago that the place could not get along without you and now they throw you out into the street like yesterday's McDonalds bag. 18 retailers file for bankruptcy this year plus almost a dozen more over the last three months including Pier 1 (that hit the pier), J Crew, Neiman Marcus, JC Penney, GNC, Lord & Taylor, Lucky Brand (that was not lucky), Ann Taylor, Joseph Bank, Steinmart, Mens Warehouse, and on and on. Many of these stores are mall anchors killed by Amazon and other online shopping sites. Walmart was allowed to remain open during covid because it sold food, however, the elite class picked Walmart to flourish, since many own WMT stock, while killing the local Ma and Pa stores that had to shutdown. Many went and are going bankrupt. Such is the economy in crony America while dealing with COVID-19.

Note Added Friday Morning, 10/2/20: President Trump announces on Twitter that he and First Lady Melania have tested positive for the coronavirus. Their assistant, Hope HIcks, one of the Whitehouse sycophants that call themselves counselors to the president, contracts the virus and she has been interacting with Trump and all the staff through the debate on Tuesday night. The president weaves a narrative that they found out about Hicks positive test Thursday morning and were awaiting results of his test late Thursday evening. Why did it take that many hours to conduct testing? Has contact tracing begun? The Whitehouse likely knew that Hicks was infected Tuesday night or Wednesday morning but they want to create the narrative that they have been following all medical guidelines and protocols. It is a shame that nowadays you cannot trust any news that you hear. The futures markets tank on the news. The S&P futures are down -60 points and the Dow down nearly -500. Analysts say that Biden will benefit since he always took the disease more seriously than Trump. A bookie site ups Biden's chances of winning the election on 11/3/20 from 60% to 64%. The House passes a $2.4 trillion fiscal spending bill  but the Senate will ignore the bill. The republicans have upped their offer for stimulus to $1.6 trillion. Since the president has become ill, although he is currently asymptomatic, the republicans and democrats may come together on the stimulus bill. Political minds become better focused the more the stock market drops. Here comes the opening bell on Wall Street at 9:30 AM EST. The Whitehouse says Trump is asymptomatic but journalists report that aids say the president was looking fatigued and a bit sick on Wednesday. The situation is becoming more confusing. Trump has not been on camera as yet. Pence and Mnuchin test negative for the virus but it may take a few days for it to show up if they are infected. The US stock market, the S&P 500, drops -1.4% a modest loss considering the news. The Dow Jones Industrials are down -1.1%.

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