SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Fibonacci Retracements; SPX Has Not Touched 50-Day MA for 5 Months

The Fibonacci retracements are shown for the multi-month rally off the March low. The 38% Fib retracement is at 3061. The 200-day MA is 3095. Thus, you can write down 3060-3100 as a potential landing zone for the pullback in the US stock market. The 50% Fib is 2902. The 62% Fib is 2744. These two Fibs line up nicely with price support and resistance levels from April and May. The SPX is currently bouncing through the range created by the 20-day MA resistance at 3431 and 50-day MA support at 3312. Bulls win above 3431 and bears win below 3312. In between the 20 and 50 is noise. The SPX begins trading at 3399. S&P futures are down -5. VIX 28.96.

Price came down near the 50-day but never tested. In fact, the S&P 500 has not touched the 50 since April. Price never back tested the 50 after the breakout in late April. This is extremely odd behavior but easily explained.

The Federal Reserve provided unprecedented monetary stimulus and the government provided generous fiscal stimulus sending the US stock market to the stratosphere rewarding the wealthiest Americans. Isn't crony capitalism great? The lack of a backtest of the 50-day moving average and multi-month non-stop machine-driven rally higher is proof positive of the power of the central banks. The central bankers are the market.

That test of the 50-day will have to happen at some point forward. If the 50-day fails, the 38% Fib will be a lower target firmly on the table. In the last few minutes, S&P futures drop to -9 with the VIX up to 29.41. Check that, now S&P -12 with VIX at 29.34. Something is going on. European indexes are marginally red. The ECB is on tap in a few hours. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 3:44 AM EST: S&P -16. VIX 29.47. USD 93.13. Euro 1.1822.


Note Added Friday Morning, 9/11/20, at 7:20 AM EST: USD 93.14. Euro 1.1859. The euro moves higher after the ECB but note how the dollar does not move lower.

Note Added Saturday, 9/12/20: Whoa, doggies. Take it away Jed. The S&P 500 came down to test the 50-day MA at 3322 on Friday printing a LOD at 3310, puncturing this key support, but then bouncing to finish the week at 3341. After 5 months, price finally came down to the 50 to show respect.