Communist China’s coronavirus (COVID-19), developed and released
from the bioweapon laboratories in Wuhan (there are two labs not one), has
infected 23.4 million people around the world murdering 809K souls. 15.9
million people have recovered. The Chinese communists unleash bioterrorism upon
the planet.
The Wuhan killer disease, President Trump calls it the China
Virus, has attacked and sickened over 5.8 million Americans (1.8% of the 330
million US population), the highest number of cases in the world, murdering over
180K United States citizens. 3.1 million people have recovered. America is only
4% of the world’s population but has one-quarter (25%) of the coronavirus cases
and almost one-quarter (22%) of the deaths.
China must pay for its bioterrorism and crimes against
humanity. The filthy dirtbag Dictator Xi is quiet these days. Mask-wearing
outdoors in the Wuhan region is now optional as China only reports a handful of
cases occurring in the entire country. The lying communists know a lot more
about coronavirus than they are sharing with the world. Never trust a filthy
communist; they will slit your throat while you sleep.
The USA has the greatest number of total coronavirus cases in
the world followed by Brazil, India, Russia, South Africa, Peru, Mexico, Columbia,
Spain, Chile, Iran, Argentina, UK, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Italy,
Turkey, France and Germany. Spain and Chile leapfrog positions so the bull-fighting
nation is in a worse shape than a week ago. Argentina now appears on the list. India
crosses the 3 million new cases milestone joining the US and Brazil in this
dubious club.
Europe is clearly fighting a new outbreak of coronavirus.
Europe is on shaky ground economically, as is the rest of the world, and may
take the whole planet down if the virus spreads again. Europe is China’s main
trading partner.
Australia, Hong Kong and Japan have successfully dealt with
their second waves of coronavirus. The United States is not yet able to
effectively handle the virus like other nations. Asian nations are used to
these pandemics after the last couple decades and are better skilled at
handling an outbreak quickly. Many Chinese are used to wearing masks due to the
putrid air pollution and despite the lifting of restrictions in Wuhan, people
continue to don face coverings. Mask-wearing is a cultural thing as well with
Asian nations more agreeable to such restrictions while many Americans shun the
thought of wearing mouth diapers. Doctors are treating dental and mouth hygiene
issues for some folks that have been wearing masks for many months.
An update for The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection
Rate Model (TKSCIRM) is provided since another 10-day period passes and more
data and information are available. This is Article 17 in the coronavirus
series that provides real-time information for historians, teachers, students, journalists,
economists, market participants, corporate executives, financial managers, doctors,
nurses, medical personnel, researchers, public officials and politicians
studying the COVID-19 pandemic. This seventeenth article is published on Sunday,
8/23/20.
This series of coronavirus articles are the only real-time
source of information available continuously chronicling the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic
in 2020.
The first article in the coronavirus series is US
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infections Chart 3/15/20; The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus Infection Rate Model; US COVID-19 Infections Surpass 3,300; Federal
Reserve Blinks and Cuts Interest Rates to the Zero Bound Embracing ZIRP and
Announcing $700 Billion QE Program; US Futures Tank Limit-Down; Coronavirus
Archive Article 1 published 3/15/20.
The second article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 3/24/20; Italy Daily Cases Leveling Off;
US Daily Cases Continue Rising; Congress Negotiating Fiscal Stimulus Bill;
Coronavirus Archive Article 2 published 3/24/20.
The third article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/3/20; Italy Daily Active Cases
Peaking; United States Faces Ugly Coronavirus Pain Ahead; US Monthly Jobs Report;
Coronavirus Archive Article 3 published 4/3/20.
The fourth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/13/20; US Active Cases Continue
Rising; India, Indonesia, Singapore, Japan, Russia, Peru, Ecuador and UK Headed
for Trouble; Second Wave Worries; President Trump Ushers in Age of MMT (Modern
Monetary Theory (Limitless Spending)); Rampant Job Losses; People in Need;
Finger-Pointing Begins; Worldwide COVID-19 Cases Top 2 Million; Coronavirus
Archive Article 4 published 4/13/20.
The fifth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/23/20; Australia, South Korea,
Switzerland, Germany, Hong Kong, Taiwan and China are Coronavirus Success
Stories; Italy, France and Spain Finally at Top of Active Case Bell Curve; UK,
Ecuador, Japan, Turkey, Peru, Brazil, Canada, Indonesia, India, Russia, Mexico
and Singapore Brace for Virus Pain; Countries Anxious to Restart Economies;
“Flattening the Curve” Term Misused; Ongoing Shortages of Virus Testing
Supplies and PPE (Personal Protective equipment); Congress Passes $484 Billion
Spending Bill; US COVID-19 Deaths Top 50,000; GRIM VIRUS NEWS 4/25/20; Coronavirus
Archive Article 5 published on 4/23/20.
The sixth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate model Update 5/3/20; America Restarts Economy as New
Virus Cases Increase; US Active Cases Not Expected to Peak Until 5/21/20; 68K
Americans Dead from COVID-19 More Than Vietnam War; Testing Deficiencies Continue;
Coronavirus Preferentially Hurts Black Community; Brazil, Nigeria, South
Africa, India, Russia, Mexico and Chile Descend Into COVID-19 Hell this Month;
US-China Relations Collapsing; President Trump Says 100K People May Die; U of W
Model Says 134K May Die in US; Coronavirus Article 6 published on 5/3/20.
The seventh article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 5/14/20; Russia, India, Nigeria, Brazil,
UK and Philippines Remain Mired in Virus Trouble; South Africa, Indonesia,
Chile, Peru and Mexico are in COVID-19 Hell; America Restarts Economy Before Flattening
the Curve; Texas, California, New Jersey and New York Worst Virus States;
Testing Deficiencies Persist; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Second Wave
Fears; Coronavirus Article 7 published on 5/14/20.
The eighth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 5/24/20; Math Explains the Black and
Latino Infections and Ongoing Coronavirus Zeitgeist; Russia, Poland, Brazil,
Peru, Bolivia, Chile, Argentina, Columbia, Honduras, Mexico, India, Pakistan,
Bangladesh, Indonesia, Nigeria, Kenya, Egypt and South Africa in COVID-19 Hell;
America Restarts Economy; US Active Cases Curve Finally Flattens; New York,
Florida, Ohio, Washington, California, Texas, Arkansas and North Carolina are
Worst States Not Yet Able to Flatten the Curve; Coronavirus Tragedy Turns
Political; President Trump Refuses to Wear a Mouth Diaper (Face Mask); Hertz
Goes Bankrupt; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Second Wave Fears; Trump
Golfs; US DEATHS EXCEED 100,000; Coronavirus Article 8 published on 5/24/20.
The ninth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/3/20; Indonesia, Philippines, Egypt,
Kenya, South Africa, Mexico, Honduras, Columbia, Brazil, Peru, Bolivia, Chile,
Argentina, Bangladesh, Pakistan and India are in COVID-19 Hell; America
Continues Reopening the Economy; US Active Cases Curve Finally Flattens
(Tentatively); Texas, Arkansas, North Carolina and California are Troubled
States; Second Wave Worries Continue; US-China Relations Deteriorating;
Population Becoming Complacent About COVID-19; Coronavirus Article 9 published
on 6/3/20.
The tenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/13/20; Philippines, Peru, Iran, Kenya,
Poland, Sweden, India, Indonesia, Honduras, Brazil, Bolivia, Chile, Pakistan,
Bangladesh, South Africa, Egypt, Columbia and Argentina are in COVID-19 Hell;
US Virus Cases Rising in Many States Due to Increased Testing, Reopening the
Economy, Protests and Large Groups Gathering; Arizona, Texas, Arkansas, South
Carolina, North Carolina, California and Florida are in Serious Trouble;
President Trump Moves Republican Convention to Florida Where Virus Cases are
Spiking; Protests and Riots Increase Around the World; US Police Under Scrutiny
for Racial Injustice; Public Health Authorities Clueless; Coronavirus Article
10 published on 6/13/20.
The eleventh article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/23/20; Pandemic in the Sunbelt (US
South and West); Arizona, California, Texas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Florida,
Carolina’s, Arkansas and New Mexico are US Hot-Spots; Houston Running Out of
Beds; South Asia, America’s and Africa Experiencing COVID-19 Hell; US, Bolivia,
Argentina, Guatemala, India and Philippines are in Serious Trouble;
Deteriorating US-China Relations and Increasing US COVID-19 Cases Creating
Market Angst; Coronavirus Article 11 published on 6/23/20.
The twelfth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 7/4/20; US Experiencing Dramatic Uptick
in Cases as President Trump and Vice President Pence Signal the All-Clear;
Ohio, Florida, Carolina’s, Arkansas, Georgia, California, Alabama, Arizona,
Texas and Oklahoma are in COVID-19 Hell; Texas, Arizona and Florida are
Reaching Limits on ICU Beds; US, Bolivia, Argentina, Colombia, Guatemala,
Honduras, Mexico, Philippines, Indonesia, India, Bangladesh, South Africa and
Kenya are in Serious Coronavirus Trouble; COVID-19 Timeline; Coronavirus
Article 12 published on 7/4/20.
The thirteenth article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 7/14/20; President Trump
Pressures States to Reopen Schools; Donnie Finally Dons a Face Diaper; US Death
Numbers Controversy Explained; RNC (Republican) Convention in Jeopardy; Kansas,
Washington, Tennessee, Alaska, the Carolina’s, Idaho, Wisconsin, Arkansas,
Oregon, Ohio, Louisiana, Georgia, Utah, Montana, Alabama, Oklahoma, Missouri
and Kentucky Join Florida, Texas, Arizona and California in the Coronavirus
Cesspool; Oman, India, El Salvador, Bolivia, Argentina, South Africa, Romania,
Mexico, Colombia and USA are in COVID-19 Hell; US-China Relations Deteriorating;
Italy Textbook Bell Curve; New Kazakhstan Virus; Coronavirus Article 13 published
on 7/14/20.
The fourteenth article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 7/24/20; President Trump
Reverses Course Touting Mask Use and Restarting Coronavirus Press Conferences;
Over 20 Million Americans Remain Unemployed; New Mexico, Alabama, Wisconsin,
Arkansas, Alaska, North Carolina, California, Oklahoma and Missouri are the
Most-Infected States; US Healthcare System is Under Heavy Pressure Through
August; Australia, Hong Kong and Japan Hit with Second Waves; India, El
Salvador, Argentina, South Africa, Romania, Brazil, Bolivia, Mexico,
Kazakhstan, Colombia, Kenya and United States are Most-Infected Nations; US-China
Tensions Escalate; US Congress Negotiating Another Stimulus Bill; Coronavirus
Article 14 published on 7/24/20.
The fifteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 8/3/20; Australia, Hong Kong, Japan,
Spain and Peru Handling Second Wave; Philippines, Colombia, Bolivia, Mexico,
India, Ukraine, El Salvador, Peru, Spain, Argentina, Romania and Brazil in
COVID-19 Hell; 41 US States Show Active Cases Curves Continuing Higher; 9 US
States are in a Second Wave; Coronavirus Particle Size Analysis and Aerosol
Behavior; Public Restrooms and Fecal Matter May Be Major Factors in Virus
Transmission; Testing Troubles Continue; AstraZeneca Granted Protection from
Vaccine Liability; Coronavirus Article 15 published on 8/3/20.
The sixteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 8/13/20; Finally Good Pandemic News for
the United States; Europe Slipping Into Second Wave Behavior; Most Problematic
Virus-Infected Nations are India, Philippines, Romania, Ukraine, Iraq,
Colombia, Peru, Bolivia, Argentina, El Salvador, Netherlands, Belgium, France
and Spain; Worst US States are Kentucky, California, Mississippi, Illinois,
Indiana, Arkansas, Virginia, Idaho, Wisconsin, North Dakota and Hawaii; US Congress
Deadlocked on Stimulus Bill After President Trump Signs Executive Order; US
Testing Troubles Continue; Good News Turns Bad with US Active Cases Resuming
the Uptrend; Coronavirus Article 16 published on 8/13/20.
As mentioned in the prior articles, the Worldometer web site
is very useful in tracking the coronavirus (COVID-19) around the world and its
link is provided. Charts in the coronavirus series of articles are provided
courtesy of Worldometer and annotated by Keystone.
The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model (TKSCIRM)
forecasts the peak date in active coronavirus cases for any country or region
which represents the maximum strain on medical personnel and facilities. TKSCIRM
monitors the Worldometer new case data for a country or region and identifies
the date of the peak in new cases (New Case Peak Date). Once this occurs, the
active case bell curve will peak in 1 to 4 weeks depending on how the virus
situation is handled.
If the country, region or state is well-prepared, the active
cases will peak 11 days, on average, after the new cases peak (think South
Korea, Australia, Hong Kong, etc..). The second wave outbreaks in
Australia, Hong Kong and Japan are brought under control in the same time
period as the initial wave. However, South Korea is facing a difficult second wave outbreak of the virus currently that they are not yet able to control.
If the country is not well-prepared, like the US, the active cases will peak 28 days after the peak in new cases. Same for any US state. Add 28 days to the New Cases Peak Date to arrive at the Projected Active Cases Peak Date.
If the country is not well-prepared, like the US, the active cases will peak 28 days after the peak in new cases. Same for any US state. Add 28 days to the New Cases Peak Date to arrive at the Projected Active Cases Peak Date.
The top of the bell curve pattern on the active cases chart is
important since it represents the maximum strain on medical facilities and
healthcare personnel. The US active cases may be finally peaking after all
these months. The discussion about ‘flattening the curve’ pertains to the
active cases chart and not to the new cases bar chart. The media and citizens
are confused with the charts and data; errors in reporting and communicating
information occur daily. It adds to the ongoing chaos and confusion with the
handling of coronavirus in America.
The Keystone Model identifies the new case peak date for
forecasting the peak in the active cases bell curve. Any subsequent higher new
case numbers will create a new peak date. Also, if the number of new cases is
within 8% of the prior peak, that new date becomes the new case peak date where
28 days is added to project when the peak in the active cases chart will occur.
The behavior of matching or higher high new case numbers signals that the virus
is getting worse in that region. Obviously, all nations want their new cases to
drop to zero.
The peak new case date for the US is 7/24/20 with 78,586
(revised a smidgen higher) new cases in one day. Adding 28 days, provides a
target date of 8/21/20 for the US active cases to peak; this weekend. Sadly,
the active cases chart continues higher. The bell curve is not flattening.
America is having trouble getting the virus under control due to our free
spirits. Festivals and events on Memorial Day and Independence Day, political
rallies, protests and riots, beach parties and now young people comingling
again at the start of a school year, all contribute to the US’s inability to
flatten the curve. This is a very troubling situation since the active cases
curve has tried to flatten three times since the end of July and each time it
fails like after Memorial Day. The Labor Day parties are quickly approaching.
The worst global hotspots are highlighted below with their projected
peaks in active cases dates (maximum stress on healthcare workers) provided.
Bangladesh
7/2/20 New Case Peak Date
7/30/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (chart may have peaked 8/18/20)
Indonesia
7/9/20 New Case Peak Date
8/6/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (chart may have peaked 8/17/20)
Honduras
7/20/20 New Case Peak Date
8/17/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (chart continues higher)
United States (see chart above)
7/24/20 New Case Peak Date
8/21/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (sadly, chart continues higher; there are three failed attempts at
flattening the curve over the last month; America stumbles)
Brazil
7/29/20 New Case Peak Date
8/26/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (peak may have occurred 8/8/20 but moving choppy sideways)
Hong Kong (Second Wave)
7/30/20 New Case Peak Date
8/10/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days; chart peaked 8/2/20; data is suspect but it is good
news for Hong Kong nonetheless)
Mexico
8/2/20 New Case Peak Date
8/30/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (chart continues higher; Mexico is a disaster)
Japan (Second Wave)
8/3/20 New Case Peak Date
8/14/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days; chart peaked 8/12/20 the Keystone model almost
predicted the peak to the day)
Australia (Second Wave; southern
hemisphere)
8/5/20 New Case Peak Date
8/16/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days; chart peaked 8/15/20 the Keystone model nailed it
almost to the day)
Philippines
8/10/20 New Case Peak Date
9/7/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (chart may have peaked 8/15/20 but data is suspect due to the choppy behavior
of the curve over the last month)
Netherlands (Second Wave) (limited
data hampers analysis)
8/11/20 New Case Peak Date
9/8/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
Spain (Second Wave) (limited data
hampers analysis)
8/11/20 New Case Peak Date
9/8/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
Finland (Second Wave)
8/13/20 New Case Peak Date
8/24/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days; second wave is small but chart is moving higher)
Belgium (Second Wave)
Belgium (Second Wave)
8/15/20
New Case Peak Date
9/12/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
Peru (Second Wave)
8/16/20 New Case Peak Date
9/13/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
Nepal (Second Wave)
8/18/20 New Case Peak Date
9/15/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
Ireland (Second Wave)
8/18/20 New Case Peak Date
8/29/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days; chart is moving higher)
Colombia
8/19/20 New Case Peak Date
9/16/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (data is suspect since a peak is shown on 8/14/20 which cannot be true;
Colombia remains in trouble)
Argentina
8/20/20 New Case Peak Date
9/17/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (peak is shown for 8/8/20 so data is suspect; conditions are worsening in
Argentina over the last few days.
Bolivia
8/20/20 New Case Peak Date
9/17/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
Turkey (Second Wave)
8/20/20 New Case Peak Date
9/17/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days; the second wave is small so far but the chart is moving
higher off its bottom; data is suspect since Erdogan is a dirtbag dictator like
Xi (China), Putin (Russia) and Duterte (Philippines))
Czechia (Second Wave)
8/21/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases ever)
9/1/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days; chart is chopping sideways)
Austria (Second Wave)
8/21/20 New Case Peak Date
9/1/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days; chart is moving higher)
Germany (Second Wave)
8/21/20 New Case Peak Date
9/1/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days; the second wave is small; chart is moving higher off
its bottom although showing a peak 8/21/20; data is suspect)
El Salvador
8/21/20 New Case Peak Date
9/18/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
Costa Rica
8/21/20 New Case Peak Date
9/18/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
Romania
8/21/20 New Case Peak Date
9/18/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
Iraq
8/21/20 New Case Peak Date
9/18/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
Ethiopia
8/21/20 New Case Peak Date
9/18/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
France (Second Wave) (see chart
above)
8/21/20 New Case Peak Date
9/18/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days; chart is ramping parabolically (vertical) higher and
appears out of control)
Italy (Second Wave)
8/22/20 New Case Peak Date
9/19/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days; the second wave is small so far but the chart is moving
higher off its bottom; Italy must nip it in the bud or the virus may get out of
control again like France)
Switzerland (Second Wave)
8/22/20 New Case Peak Date
9/19/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days; chart is ramping higher)
Poland (Second Wave)
8/22/20 New Case Peak Date
9/19/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days; chart is ramping higher)
Greece (Second Wave)
8/22/20 New Case Peak Date
9/1/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days; chart spiking higher)
Albania
8/22/20 New Case Peak Date
9/19/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days; chart moving higher)
Croatia
8/22/20 New Case Peak Date
9/2/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days; chart is ramping parabolically higher)
Moldova
8/22/20 New Case Peak Date
9/19/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
South Korea (Second Wave)
8/22/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases since March!)
9/2/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
South Korea (Second Wave)
8/22/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases since March!)
9/2/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
UAE (United Arab Emirates) (Second
Wave)
8/22/20 New Case Peak Date
9/19/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based in 28 days; chart is moving higher)
Ukraine
8/22/20 New Case Peak Date
9/19/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
India
8/22/20 New Case Peak Date
9/19/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
North Korea (no virus data is available
although the nation is in famine)
The United States remains a
disappointment. The US active cases chart above shows the ongoing failures at
flattening the curve. The Memorial Day fun in the sun and beach parties as well
as protests, riots and political campaigns all contribute to that failure. The
current failures are after the Independence Day parties, more campaign rallies,
more protests and riots and Americans simply becoming sick of all the mask and
social distancing guidelines. Young folks want to par-tay.
The Sturgis motorcycle rally is
also leading to new infections. President Trump stupidly says the coronavirus
is under control and going away. In reality, coronavirus is in control. The US
active cases bell curve chart is expected to peak any day forward and finally
roll over as the Labor Day party day approaches but no one can breathe easy
until this occurs. Look at all the past fake-out moves in the chart above. The
start of the school year is leading to more infections among the young folks. There
is misery ahead until the bell curve flattens and rolls over.
Mexico remains a mess and like the
US and cannot yet gain control of the virus. Central America remains a hotbed
for the virus with El Salvador, Costa Rica, Panama, Honduras and Guatemala
continuing the battle all of which are north of Colombia at the top southwest
corner of South America.
As mentioned, Australia, Hong Kong
and Japan have defeated the second wave of covid with the active cases bell
curves flattening and dropping off. South Korea, however, a shining example of handling the virus in the spring, is now dealing with a serious second wave of coronavirus. The new cases in South Korea are the highest since March! The drastic ramp higher in the new cases bar chart and the active cases bell curve charts is worrisome.
The second wave cases flaring in Europe gets your attention. European countries mired in a second wave include France, Spain, Italy, Belgium, Netherlands, Finland, Ireland, Austria, Switzerland, Germany, Greece, Poland and Czechia. Several take a turn for the worse with the new cases spiking to new highs today. A German study says covid is likely spread on an airplane.
The second wave cases flaring in Europe gets your attention. European countries mired in a second wave include France, Spain, Italy, Belgium, Netherlands, Finland, Ireland, Austria, Switzerland, Germany, Greece, Poland and Czechia. Several take a turn for the worse with the new cases spiking to new highs today. A German study says covid is likely spread on an airplane.
France needs to put away the wine,
baguette and cigarettes and quit cavorting with one another. European nations
should implement immediate safe guards, checks and potentially quarantine anyone
entering their country from France. The active cases bell curve chart is
provided above for France and it is not a pretty picture. The virus is out of
control in France currently. The second waves are small at this stage for
several of the European nations but worrisome that the cases could ramp higher
quickly.
Other European nations such as
Albania (west of Greece) and Croatia are dealing with the initial pandemic
phase. Moldova is between Romania and Ukraine so its infections are ramping
higher. Ukraine has taken a turn for the worse.
Peru, Turkey, UAE and Nepal are in
second waves. People are getting nutty around the world. In Peru, at a nightclub,
120 partygoers were having fun drinking and cavorting, ignoring the pandemic
rules. Peru continues to battle the virus. The copper fields are at diminished
capacity driving up world commodity prices. The party turns tragic when police
arrive. Drunk partygoers panic running down a cramped stairwell that ends in
trampling deaths, blood and mayhem. 13 perish in a nasty smelly stairwell when
minutes before they were dancing and singing with friends and lovers. Bodies
are loaded on pick-up trucks and driven to the morgue. Perhaps those deaths
should be counted as coronavirus deaths? There are always many unintended
consequences that occur when governments impose rules.
Nepal is north of India so clearly
the severe outbreak is spreading north. Nepal’s northern border is with China
so the filthy communists are on a high level of alert to prevent the virus from
spreading across the border. How appropriate it would be for the virus to find
its way back to mainland China, the place of COVID-19’s bioterrorism birth.
Many of the projections for the
peak in the active cases bell curves are slipping into mid and late September.
Many nations around the world have a handle on the virus and are keeping it at
bay but the countries listed above represent the worst in the world. The
hotspots are North America (US and Mexico not Canada), Central America, South
America, South Asia, Europe into western Asia and the Pacific Islands.
Interestingly, the UAE is at the
bottom of the list battling the virus like crazy. The Arabs sign a new Middle
East peace agreement brokered by President Trump. One wonders if the sweetener
in the deal may be the US handing the UAE many ventilators, PPE and other
medical supplies so they can combat the virus? The real reasons for deals are
the things you never hear about. This is the way the crony capitalism system
works.
North Korea, the hermit kingdom,
remains isolated from the world so there is obviously no coronavirus data
available. Dictator Kim Jong-un warns his people of economic weakness ahead.
Floods and natural disasters have greatly reduced the crops. People are
starving. The piece of crap tin-pot dictator decrees that all dogs shall be
gathered up and slaughtered for the people to eat. Fido is for dinner tonight
in North Korea. Kim Jong-un says having dogs as pets is part of the corrupt
American bourgeois culture. What is the murderous little man going to do when
the dogs run out?
All is not groovy in China either,
although they will not be eating their family pets. Dirtbag Dictator Xi
announces the ‘clean plate program’ obviously geared towards making sure the
population does not waste any food. Floods and storms have hurt China in recent
months, like North Korea, and China’s relationship with the world after it
released its coronavirus bioweapon is not helping the situation. What many
folks probably do not know is that the past dynasties in China all ended with
food shortages and inflation which create bloody riots and government
overthrow. No wonder Xi does not want any scrap of food to go to waste. He does
not want his head laying on that plate.
For America, the troubled states are
highlighted below with their projections on when the active cases curve will
peak-out (max strain on healthcare system) as per the Keystone Model. The top 14
states for total virus cases, from highest to lowest, are California, Texas, Florida,
New York, Georgia, Illinois, Arizona, New Jersey, North Carolina, Tennessee, Louisiana,
Pennsylvania, Massachusetts and Ohio. Texas, Florida, Illinois, Arizona,
Pennsylvania and Ohio are key battleground states for the presidential election
on 11/3/20. Texas leapfrogged Florida with a higher total case count. Arizona
remains ugly leapfrogging New Jersey. Tennessee leapfrogs Louisiana.
The following states are dealing
with the second wave, or second phase, of the virus; Delaware, Maryland,
Colorado, Michigan, Nebraska, North Dakota, Virginia, Indiana and Illinois.
Recently, Florida, Texas, Arizona and California were the hotbeds. Texas has
flattened its curve so the Lonestar State has something to cheer this weekend
(see chart above). Go out and eat some barbecued ribs to celebrate. Texas will
need to continue what they are doing to make sure the active cases bell curve
chart keeps moving lower. Texas should not squander time going forward. Medical
personnel will need a much-deserved rest; give them time to recharge their
batteries. At the same time, plan for the potential second wave, or phase three
wave, whatever you want to call it, in the Fall (Oct, Nov, Dec).
Florida, California and Arizona,
however, continue displaying active cases curves that are ramping sadly higher.
Below is a listing of the states dealing with the covid problem. Some are
succeeding but far more are failing.
Arizona
New Case Peak Date 7/1/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
7/29/20 (chart sadly continues higher)
Florida
New Case Peak Date 7/12/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/9/20 (chart sadly continues higher)
Washington (state)
New Case Peak Date 7/13/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/10/20 (chart continues higher)
Texas
New Case Peak Date 7/15/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/12/20 (chart peaks 7/27/20 only 12 days after the peak in new cases; Texans
must be on good behavior to bend the bell curve over and now it is heading
down; congratulations) (see chart above)
Utah
New Case Peak Date 7/16/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/13/20 (chart peaks 7/25/20 only 9 days after the peak in new cases;
congratulations)
Nevada
New Case Peak Date 7/17/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/14/20 (chart continues higher)
South Carolina
New Case Peak Date 7/19/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/16/20 (chart continues higher)
Oklahoma
New Case Peak Date 7/21/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/18/20
(chart continues higher)
West Virginia
New Case Peak Date 7/22/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/19/20 (chart peaked 8/15/20 the Keystone model almost nailed it to the day)
Alabama
New Case Peak Date 7/23/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/20/20 (chart continues higher)
Georgia
New Case Peak Date 7/24/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/21/20 (chart continues higher)
Montana
New Case Peak Date 7/25/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/22/20
(peaked 8/2/20 and chopping sideways)
Maryland (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 7/25/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/22/20 (chart continues higher)
Oregon
New Case Peak Date 7/26/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/23/20 (chart continues higher)
Louisiana
New Case Peak Date 7/26/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/23/20
(chart peaked 7/28/20; data is suspect)
Alaska
New Case Peak Date 7/26/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/23/20
(chart may have peaked 8/21/20 which would be in line with the Keystone Model)
Rhode Island
New Case Peak Date 7/27/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/24/20 (chart continues higher)
New Mexico
New Case Peak Date 7/27/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/24/20 (chart may have peaked 8/12/20 and moving sideways)
Colorado (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 7/28/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/25/20 (chart may have peaked 8/14/20 chopping sideways)
Ohio
New Case Peak Date 7/30/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/27/20 (chart shows a peak 7/27/20 so obviously data is suspect)
Mississippi
New Case Peak Date 7/30/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/27/20 (chart peaked 8/2/20; data is suspect)
Tennessee
New Case Peak Date 7/31/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/28/20 (curve is flattening and chopping sideways)
Nebraska (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 7/31/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/28/20
(chat may have peaked 8/13/20)
Idaho
New Case Peak Date 8/6/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
9/3/20 (chart is trying to flatten)
Virginia (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 8/7/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
9/4/20
Arkansas
New Case Peak Date 8/7/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
9/4/20 (chart may have peaked 8/12/20; data is suspect)
Indiana (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 8/7/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
9/4/20 (chart may have peaked 8/4/20 chopping sideways so obviously data is
suspect)
Wisconsin
New Case Peak Date 8/8/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/29/20 (chart peaks 7/28/20 so obviously the data is flawed in some manner)
Minnesota
New Case Peak Date 8/8/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
9/5/20 (may have peaked 8/8/20; data is suspect)
California
New Case Peak Date 8/11/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
9/8/20
Kentucky
New Case Peak Date 8/12/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
9/9/20
Hawaii
New Case Peak Date 8/13/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
9/11/20
Delaware (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 8/14/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
9/11/20
North Carolina
New Case Peak Date 8/15/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
9/12/20 (chart shows a peak 7/26/20 and rollover but this cannot happen with
new cases running higher; data is suspect like Ohio)
Missouri
New Case Peak Date 8/17/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
9/14/20
Kansas
New Case Peak Date 8/17/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
9/14/20 (chart chopping sideways with upward bias)
Wyoming
New Case Peak Date 8/19/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
9/16/20 (chart moving higher)
Iowa
New Case Peak Date 8/20/20 (highest
ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
9/17/20 (chart is chopping sideways but Iowa has taken a turn for the worse)
Michigan (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 8/22/20
(highest cases since April)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
9/19/20
North Dakota (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 8/22/20
(highest ever on 8/20 and 8/22)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
9/19/20
South Dakota (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 8/22/20
(highest ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
9/19/20
Illinois (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 8/22/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
9/19/20
As seen in the notes above,
several of the states list data that does not make sense. The active cases bell
curve cannot peak and roll over when new cases are ramping higher. There is
likely not a mistake in what is being reported and recorded but instead the
problem is likely a timing issue (data is delayed). Taken on face value, this
behavior hints that if many more young people are becoming sick these days with
the virus, they are not being hospitalized and do not typically worsen in
health like the folks over 65 years old. Another reason the active cases curves
may be peaking tighter to the new cases peak is that the US is simply becoming
better at handling the virus.
Cases are perhaps identified
earlier and faster in many states so the spread is diminished. Patients are now
treated with effective protocols that have been developed over the last few months.
The potential breakthrough with coronavirus is likely not with the vaccine,
which will probably be only 50% effective and met with skepticism by the
public, but instead with a cocktail therapy of drugs and treatments, similar to
the early treatment of HIV and AIDS infections. This virus treatment protocol
should be available by year end and will probably be the game-changer.
The states listed at the bottom
are in the worst shape since the new cases are peaking in the near-term. This
means that the active cases curve will continue higher and not peak and roll
over for at least a couple weeks or so. The Sturgis motorcycle rally brought
the coronavirus to towns across North and South Dakota with both states listed
at the bottom of the heap. The biker’s had great fun with booze, broads and
bikes for a week but now they are driving the porcelain bus in the bathroom
puking their guts out.
Illinois is at the bottom with
social unrest and riots a daily occurrence in Chicago and other cities such as
Portland, Los Angeles, Milwaukee and New York. Iowa takes a turn for the worse.
The Hawkeye State is dealing with the aftermath of dangerous storms and
tornadoes as well as the spreading pandemic. King Donnie flies into Iowa for a
photo-op at the airport, telling everyone he cares and is sending aid, but the
citizens are not happy with the token gesture and the pocket change he
provides. There are farms and businesses completely leveled and wiped-out.
Several states in the Midwest are
battling covid and these are key states President Trump will need to win for
reelection. The Republican National Committee (RNC) begins its convention
tomorrow in North Carolina (remember the Trump fiasco of moving the convention
to Florida only to have to move it back again). The RNC is tight-lipped about
the event so there remains a mystery of how much of the convention will be live
versus tape.
The DNC was last week and Joe
Biden was given high marks for his acceptance speech for the nomination last
Thursday. The republicans paint Sleepy Joe as a man ready for the rest home,
senile and dribbling out of the side of his mouth. Folks expected Biden to be
wheeled in to the convention in a wheel chair. The republicans set the bar so
low that Biden easily knocked the ball out of the park. Perhaps Donnie and the
gang had better rethink that philosophy as the debates approach. Biden is a
skilled politician whether he is slower in the head, or not.
President Trump will make his
acceptance speech on Thursday and he vows to have a bigger and better
convention than the democrats. Of course he does. The RNC event will be just as
boring as the DNC especially with four speakers already named and they are
Donnie’s family; daughter Ivanka, her creepy husband Jared Kushner, and
Donnie’s two sons, Donnie Junior and Eric or is it Daryl and his other brother
Daryl (Bob Newhart Show). Sounds exciting already.
The big action in North Carolina
has already started with rioters clashing with police near the site of the RNC
convention. This is a bad omen for the week ahead. A few past conventions in US
history turned out to be bloody ones. North Carolina new cases peak on 8/15/20
(only last weekend) so the Tar Heel State is dealing with a sticky virus wreaking
havoc in the tobacco fields and small towns.
New York, the epicenter of the
virus two and three months ago, is in good shape with its active cases bell
curve on the down side. Governor Cuomo is writing a book, due out in October,
that heralds his excellence in handling the coronavirus. He must have his eyes
on the presidency in the future. The announcement immediately causes
controversy since Cuomo sent sick patients back to nursing homes that infected
other old folks and staff. Thousands perished. Writing a book bragging that
everyone should follow your game plan does not appear to be a wise decision.
One study says that over 11K
people died in New York because of Cuomo’s fateful nursing home decision. Even
the best estimates say at leas 6.5K people died due to sending infected
individuals back to nursing homes, however, this study counted deaths
differently. Sick patients that were removed from the nursing homes and died on
the way to or at the hospital were not counted as nursing home deaths. The
COVID-19 pandemic remains a twisted sordid mess with republocrats and
demopublicans always concerned more about their own futures rather than doing
what is good for America.
The US remains in trouble until
the active cases chart shown above flattens and rolls over. Only then will we
truly know that there is light at the end of the tunnel for the healthcare
workers and medical system.
For any state that has not yet
reached its peak in the active cases curve, simply identify what day the new
cases peak and add 28 days to that date to project when the top of the bell
curve will occur on the active cases chart as per the Keystone Model. If
subsequent new case numbers exceed the new case peak date’s number, or are
within 8% of the new case peak date, that new date becomes the new case peak
date and 28 days is added to project the active cases peak load. The states at
the bottom of the list will be the last to see relief for their healthcare
workers and medical equipment.
The news flow is outrageous these
days. The US economy is stumbling along still receiving a boost from some of
the obscene fiscal and monetary stimulus doled out over the last few months.
Much of the boost in economic data is due to laid off workers receiving the
extra $600 per week above unemployment compensation. The republicans were
agreeable to that big spending since it would boost the economy into the
election helping Trump. The extra $600 payment expired at the end of July and
the president signed the executive order to provide $400 to keep the party
going into the election but the states are supposed to kick in $100. The
executive order only creates more of a mess.
The democrat-controlled House
returned to Washington, DC, this week to pass a bill providing billions in
funding for the post office to handle mail-in voting. President Trump is on a
schtick saying that the mail-in voting, which is increasing due to covid, is
fraught with fraud and corruption. However, he and the First Lady vote that
way. Trump says his vote via mail is different; that is what the elite class
always says. Trump believes that the more mail-in voting that occurs favors the
democrats but actual data shows that the vote splits the same way as if the
people went physically to the polls.
Both dirtbag tribes are creating
their corrupt narratives for the future. The democrats are painting a picture
of incompetence and scandal at the post office. If Donnie is reelected, the
democrats will pursue a new scandal against Trump claiming interference in the
post office which swayed the election. This path will hassle the orange headed
carnival barker for a couple years or more like the Mueller Report. In other
words, the same-o stuff will continue with Post Officegate.
At the same time, the corrupt
republicans are setting up their narrative in case Biden is elected. Trump and
the gang will delegitimize his victory claiming that the mail-in voting system
was fraudulent. If the results are not clear on the evening of 11/3/20, the US
will likely face a crisis. Trump will probably be hesitant to concede or leave
office until the mail-in voting scandal is handled. Donnie is creating
controversy daily for his narrative two days ago saying a second election may
be needed. Republicans cringe at such an idiot comment and many ran to
microphones saying there will be no second election in the United States.
If Trump is defeated on 11/3/20,
it is guaranteed that he will be in Hollywood a few months later filming a new
reality television show. However, he will need a narrative that says he was
cheated out of the election. Trump loses his gravitas if he is defeated. It is
hard to claim you are the best at everything and everyone holds you high on a
pedestal when they did not want you anymore as president. Thus, Trump keeps
sewing these seeds of future indecision with attacks on mail-n voting, the deep
state and other targets. If he loses the election, his path to Hollywood would
be in tact as long as he can claim that he was screwed and cheated, and he will
sing this song until his last song is sung.
Democrat Biden maintains a 7 to 11
percentage-point lead in the polls over republican Trump but the race should be
considered a dead heat. The election is on 11/3/20 only 72 days away. The
campaigns will turn nasty and the October surprises will hit anytime. There
should be some juicy dirt that surfaces on both men and then Americans will decide
which dirt is less filthy. 60% of Americans say the president is mishandling
the virus situation while 40% say he is doing a good job. The handling of the
COVID-19 pandemic remains an unresolved health, economic and political
experiment. Will humanity prevail?
Vaccine development continues. Each
time happy news occurs, the stock market bumps higher. Humorously, however, the
happy news moves on from one company to the next as the initial glad talk
fades. Moderna (ticker symbol MRNA) was hot for a while, then a Regeneron
(REGN) treatment, and do not forget Johnson and Johnson (JNJ), and now Pfizer
(PFE) is the latest. Trump continues tweeting that he wants a vaccine quick which
creates concerns about safety. Donnie claims that the FDA is purposely not
finding enough people for vaccine virus studies to slow things down so a
vaccine could not be announced by the election (there is no evidence of this
claim).
Everything is about the election
for Donnie. The truth is they are likely having trouble finding suckers willing
to get shot with mystery fluids. Let Trump have a go at it. Like all elite, he
tells the peons what to do with their lives but those rules and edicts do not
apply to the privileged class. Do as I say and not as I do. America is in a New
Gilded Age a la the 1920’s; the land of the have’s and have not’s.
Typically, the vaccine studies
will give 10K to 15K people the unproven vaccine and the same number will
receive a placebo. Thus, each study needs about 20K to 30K people and more.
There are also concerns that there are not enough people of color involved in
the studies. If a bunch of healthy white people are in the study, that is not a
representative sample of the group that the virus attacks most aggressively
(blacks, Latinos and Native Americans). Social thinkers are also concerned
about ‘vaccine nationalism’ where wealthier countries may, or likely will,
preferentially treat their own citizens before helping poor nations.
President Trump blames the ‘deep
state’ for controlling the FDA and slow-walking the vaccine trials. The president
is correct about the deep state but it is a democrat-republican establishment cabal
not solely the democrats as Trump believes.
Mike Lindell, CEO of the
MyPillow.com company that runs television commercials endlessly, is receiving
heat for pushing a miracle cure based on the oleander plant. He says the FDA
has information on it but it sounds like snake oil. Scientists and doctors say
the plant extract is dangerous. The US Army says it had tested the extract and
did not find it useful in fighting covid. Lindell has a financial interest in
selling the supplement based on the extract. He is a friend of the president’s
and converted his factory to making PPE during the initial stages of the
pandemic. Trump is open to the idea but has learned to stay clear of endorsing
half-baked ideas. This controversy will continue in the week ahead.
Bombshell secret tapes are
revealed where President Trump’s sister, a former federal judge, Maryanne Trump
Barry, talks despairingly about Donnie. She Is taped by niece Mary Trump who is
already on record as not wanting the president to be reelected. The Trump family
must have a bunch of skeletons in the closet for people to be taping each other
without consent. Barry is aghast at the president’s habitual lying and the “goddamn
tweets.” She says he does not prepare and he changes stories often. Humorously,
she says someone else took the SAT’s (college entrance exams) for him in his
youth. The comments cut deep since Trump always bragged about his close
relationship with Barry as well as always insinuating that his intelligence is
only superseded by Einstein. She also calls the president “cruel” and “a man with
no principles.” Ouch. That may even hurt Donnie’s ego; probably not. The
Whitehouse calls it another attack on the president. The secret tapes are an
early October surprise. Is Biden already going for the knock-out blow?
Trump adviser Steve Bannon, during
and after the 2016 campaign, who has been active with Breitbart, is arrested. Bannon
and others started a non-profit for building the wall (on the southern border with
Mexico) and are accused of misusing funds. The president says he knows nothing
about Bannon and does not talk to him anymore. It is comical how Trump uses
people until they are no longer of value and then he kicks them under the bus
without remorse.
The delays in coronavirus testing
continue especially for the huddled masses. If you are a professional sports
team, politician or corporate executive, the elite class, the virus test
results are known in minutes or within a day depending on the test. If you are
an American citizen peon, you must jump through hoops with your physician that
will provide you with a script for a test. Then, the results may take three
days or more. This is shameful since the test becomes useless after so many
days pass. A poll shows that 40% of the respondents did not receive test
results until more than three days later. Dr Fauci says the US testing program
is worthless if the delay in results of multiple days is not fixed.
President Trump appoints Dr Scott
Atlas as an adviser for the task force clearly aimed at muscling Fauci out of
the limelight. Atlas defends Trump’s approach to the virus including opening
schools immediately as well as all sports. Atlas is of the same mind as the
president considering much of the virus drama to be hysteria and an overreaction.
Fauci says he looks forward to talking with Atlas (it is dysfunctional that the
two have not already talked). Humorously, Atlas is a radiologist while Fauci,
love him or not, is an infectious virus doctor. The appointment will result in
more chaos, confusion and disorganization. Every day a different person seems
to step up to the podium telling Americans to do something different than the
day before.
CDC Director Redfield proclaims
that the United States could face “the worst Fall, form a public health
perspective, we have ever had. We’re going to have covid in the Fall, and we’re
going to have flu in the Fall.” Redfield expects hospitals to be stretched to
the max.
The school and university drama
increases. Students are returning to school and infections are rising. Notre
Dame reports 150 positive cases and cancels in-person classes for at least two
weeks. Similar outcomes are occurring at other schools and universities in 18
other states. The schoolyear is not starting well. Scientists and doctors are
concerned that the increased infection rate at schools may lead to a higher
overall infection rate throughout the US.
The United States stock market,
the S&P 500, ticker symbol SPX, prints an all-time high on Friday, 8/21/20,
at 3399.96 only 4 pennies from 3.4K. The SPX also prints a new all-time closing
high at 3397.16. The screenprinter’s have already delivered the “SPX 3.4K” hats
to trading floors ready for distribution once stocks are goosed on Monday.
The four central banker horsemen
of the financial apocalypse, the Fed (US central bank), ECB (Europe), BOJ (Japan)
and PBOC (China), are printing fiat money like madmen. The world is awash in
liquidity so folks pick up the dollars and other currency and buy stocks,
bonds, real estate, vineyards, classic and antique cars, collectibles, art,
jewelry, coins, diamonds, gold, etc…, sending all asset prices into bubble territories.
No one truly knows what anything
is worth anymore due to over 11 years of obscene central banker Keynesian
intervention. With interest rates so low, individuals and businesses buy a
bunch of crap they do not need, that they will need to pay off in the years
ahead as interest rates climb quickly. This stuff never ends well.
Most Americans do not understand
the stock market machinations. From a professional trader pespective, the US
stock market is likely at a major inflection point a la the dotcom bubble in
2000 and Great Recession in 2008-2009. The indicators on the SPX monthly (very
long term), weekly, daily and hourly charts are in full negative divergence
which means there is no more fuel available to take prices higher.
At the same time, valuations in
tech stocks are higher than the dotcom bubble! The stock market rally is mainly
driven by the FAANG (FB, AAPL, AMZN, NFLX, GOOGL) stocks as well as other
high-flyers such as MSFT and TSLA (these ticker symbols are Facebook, Apple,
Amazon, Netflix, Alphabet which is Google, Microsoft and Tesla, respectively).
Piling on more top-calling
behavior in the stock market, the put/call ratios, which is a measure of panic
versus complacency, is at record multi-year complacent levels. Traders and
investors are giddy and euphorically bullish the stock market. Everyone
believes that stocks will go up forever since the Federal Reserve is always
ready to support equities to protect the wealthy privileged class that own
large equity portfolios. One-half of Americans do not own one single share of
stock. All dips in stocks are bought immediately by enthusiastic buyers. This
behavior is very dangerous and always marks a significant top in the US stock
market.
You may see a historic stock
market event occur in the coming days during August and September. Everyone
typically associates October with a bad month for stocks since the crashes in
history are clustered in this month, however, September is historically a
weaker month each year for stocks than October. If you are in control of your
own stock portfolio, consider ditching many of your long positions and let that
dough sit in cash for a while. At the least, bring on some shorts. Of course,
discuss your financial decisions with your money manager before doing anything.
US Jobless Claims, released every
Thursday morning, are above 1 million again now 21 out of the last 22 weeks.
Common Americans are hurting these days, over 15 million remain unemployed,
while the elite class and upper middle class sycophants that service the privileged,
enjoy ever increasing riches each day in the stock market. Such is the crony
capitalism system that is in its last throes during the coming weeks, months
and few years.
Trump makes a blunder slamming
Goodyear over a message that appeared on Twitter and other social internet
platforms. The message highlights Goodyear’s dress code policy and advises
employees against wearing political attire to work and singles out MAGA (Trump
slogan; Make America Great Again). Trump moans like a baby that Goodyear is
unfair and demands that everyone boycott their tires which is more stupid
stuff. Trump is driven around in federal vehicles that don Goodyear tires.
The quick decision is detrimental
to Trump since Goodyear is headquartered in Ohio a key battleground state in the
election. A president will not be elected to the Whitehouse unless he wins
Ohio. The common folks in Ohio are not amused by the president’s antics.
Perhaps Donnie should spend more time handling the virus instead of tweeting,
watching television and golfing (this is a democrat talking point that was used
during the DNC convention last week).
On Sunday evening, President Trump announces an emergency authorization from the FDA for the use of convalescent plasma in treating
COVID-19. The news is met skeptically by doctors and scientists since there is not enough data available to verify plasma efficacy. Three days ago, the FDA web site said the plasma treatment was under consideration but not yet viable. What changed that fast? If there is new data, let's see it. There is none. King Donnie called that skinny FDA guy in on the Oval Office carpet and twisted his arm behind his back until he agreed to the emergency measure. Donnie wanted big news to create excitement into the RNC convention. Trump proclaims the plasma treatment is a huge "breakthrough." US stock futures move higher on the happy news.
Trump also wants to fast-track the AstraZeneca vaccine. Donnie is focused on the election and believes that if he can stand before the people on Halloween and say here is the vaccine I promised, he will surely be reelected. Will Halloween be a trick or treat for the orange-headed leader of the Free World?
Trump also wants to fast-track the AstraZeneca vaccine. Donnie is focused on the election and believes that if he can stand before the people on Halloween and say here is the vaccine I promised, he will surely be reelected. Will Halloween be a trick or treat for the orange-headed leader of the Free World?
Consumer Confidence data is
released on Tuesday, GDP (Gross Domestic Product; a gauge on recession) on Thursday
and Consumer Sentiment and PCE inflation data (important numbers to many Fed
members) on Friday. Labor Day is late this year on 9/7/20 so there is two full
weeks of trading on the stock exchanges before the holiday which marks the unofficial
end of summer; typically the end of swimming for the summer.
The RNC convention begins tomorrow.
Will the event be overtaken by street protests and riots? It is rumored that
the president plans to speak all four nights of the convention this week. That
may be a bit too much exposure of his orange head but he is Hollywood Donnie
and he may think this will result in a better convention than the democrats.
The biggest thing that can help Trump’s reelection bid is for the US active
cases bell curve above to flatten and roll over lower; that would give Donnie
something to cheer.
Media outlets and social internet sites are reporting that North Korea tin-pot dictator Kim Jong-un is comatose and some powers have been transferred to his sister, Kim Yo Jong. Destabilization on the Korean Peninsula, in China's backyard, is not a good thing. In Japan, Prime Minister Abe keeps visiting the hospital every few days for unknown ailments.
Trump adviser Kellyanne Conway resigns and will be out at the end of the month. Conway provides the standard excuse of spending more time with the family (although there does appear to be turmoil with their teenage daughter). She was the first woman that ran a successful presidential campaign in 2016. It is odd that she is leaving on the eve of the RNC convention and with the election only two months away.
Note Added Monday Morning, 8/24/20, at 5:29 AM EST: S&P futures are up +24 points on the president's happy talk about plasma treatments and fast-tracking AstraZeneca. AZN is pumped +3% higher in pre-market trading. How many wealthy folks were told by Trump ahead of time that he would make the AZN announcement? Making money is easy in the crony capitalism system when you are part of the privileged class. The S&P 500, the US stock market, is set to move above 3,400 at the opening bell this morning. Traders will be donning those "SPX 3.4K" hats. The stock-buying frenzy continues with tech stocks performing a dotcom bubble redux.
Note added Friday, 8/28/20: The S&P 500 shoots up through 3.4K and then 3.5K. Stocks are in a buying frenzy. These are strange times with 20 million people out of work and restaurants going belly-up left and right but stock indexes printing record highs (due to the Federal Reserve money-printing). The government fiscal stimulus and Fed monetary stimulus is supporting businesses that are no longer in demand such as hotels, hospitality-related facilities, restaurants, airlines and cruise lines. The powerful people in America call this capitalism. During the week, the covid saga lives on. A biotech conference in Boston in February is identified as a super spreader event where 20K people became infected with the virus. Dr Fauci cautions on approving a vaccine without late-stage trials. The Whitehouse keeps hinting that corners may be cut to make a vaccine available to the public by year-end. Both Trump and Pence are proclaiming that a vaccine will be available to all Americans by Christmas. The CDC releases new testing guidelines saying that asymptomatic people should not be tested. President Trump is getting his way to not test as much. Trump surmises that if you test less people, you have less cases (in reality, the US would simply not identify the cases but these sick folks will be circulating in society). The Davos Economic Forum is moved to summertime instead of winter. The wealthy simply use covid as an excuse to move the event to a warmer time of the year. Davos is where the millionaires go to praise the billionaires. EU Trade Chief Hogan resigns after a scandal over a golf dinner called Golfgate. Hogan did not follow covid guidelines and instead was partying it up at a golf dinner. The wealthy are always telling the huddled masses to do as I say not as I do. There are other bigwigs involved but it will depend on how much governments want to sweep under the rug. After the RNC convention, Trump receives a bounce in the polls as typically occurs. The gap narrows between democrat challenger Biden and republican incumbent Trump. The battleground states narrow. This is key. If the battleground states polls are within the margin of error when the 11/3/20 Election Day arrives, Biden will be in serious trouble and a Trump reelection is very likely. Biden is flaling into the Hillary Clinton trap of not visiting the states although he plans to begin more campaigning next week. House Speaker Pelosi and Whitehouse Chief of Staff Meadows talk for 20 minutes on the telephone but make no progress in the stimulus bill negotiations. Pelosi says the republicans are unrealistic until they bump their overall number higher. Meadows actually introduces a skinny version only addressing a few items for $500 billion. Pelosi proclaims that the stimulus talks are at a "tragic impasse." Pelosi makes a comment in passing that Biden should not do any debates with Trump. The republicans jump on the statement and proclaim that it is proof that Biden is senile. Pelosi is a shrewd politician and the comment was likely placed to continue the narrative that Biden has reduced mental capacities. Note that after the DNC convention, Trump does not attack Biden's mental acuity as much. Democrats likely want this attack on Biden to continue so the debate expectations for Sleepy Joe will be as low as possible. Biden would be able to step over that low bar even with his weak thin legs. The political baby games have not even heated-up yet. There is lots of filthy dirt ahead.
Note Added Saturday, 8/29/20: 1200 students at the University of Alabama test positive for the virus but most are asymptomatic. The long-term effects of the virus remain an unknown. The filthy Chinese communists likely know far more than they are sharing with the world, after all, the virus is their bioweapon. There are 66 days until the presidential election. The first debate is 9/29/20 only 31 days away. Biden is in his basement eating Gingko Biloba supplements like candy while Trump stirs up the ongoing violence in cities claiming he is the only man that can fix it. Such is the ongoing collapse of the crony capitalism system in the United States. Americans are deciding which corrupt silver-haired white guy to vote for over the next couple months.
Note Added Sunday, 8/30/20: Moderna (ticker MRNA) says 24% of its phase three vaccine trial participants are from communities of color. They are obviously receiving criticism on the make-up of the test subjects. The virus impacts people of color more so a vaccine that works on middle-aged white folks may not create confidence. Retail bicycle sales are strong as folks find ways to occupy their time during lockdown periods or due to the closing of bars and restaurants and limiting concerts and other events. The riots and violence in Portland, Oregon, and Kenosha, Wisconsin, continue.
Media outlets and social internet sites are reporting that North Korea tin-pot dictator Kim Jong-un is comatose and some powers have been transferred to his sister, Kim Yo Jong. Destabilization on the Korean Peninsula, in China's backyard, is not a good thing. In Japan, Prime Minister Abe keeps visiting the hospital every few days for unknown ailments.
Trump adviser Kellyanne Conway resigns and will be out at the end of the month. Conway provides the standard excuse of spending more time with the family (although there does appear to be turmoil with their teenage daughter). She was the first woman that ran a successful presidential campaign in 2016. It is odd that she is leaving on the eve of the RNC convention and with the election only two months away.
Note Added Monday Morning, 8/24/20, at 5:29 AM EST: S&P futures are up +24 points on the president's happy talk about plasma treatments and fast-tracking AstraZeneca. AZN is pumped +3% higher in pre-market trading. How many wealthy folks were told by Trump ahead of time that he would make the AZN announcement? Making money is easy in the crony capitalism system when you are part of the privileged class. The S&P 500, the US stock market, is set to move above 3,400 at the opening bell this morning. Traders will be donning those "SPX 3.4K" hats. The stock-buying frenzy continues with tech stocks performing a dotcom bubble redux.
Note added Friday, 8/28/20: The S&P 500 shoots up through 3.4K and then 3.5K. Stocks are in a buying frenzy. These are strange times with 20 million people out of work and restaurants going belly-up left and right but stock indexes printing record highs (due to the Federal Reserve money-printing). The government fiscal stimulus and Fed monetary stimulus is supporting businesses that are no longer in demand such as hotels, hospitality-related facilities, restaurants, airlines and cruise lines. The powerful people in America call this capitalism. During the week, the covid saga lives on. A biotech conference in Boston in February is identified as a super spreader event where 20K people became infected with the virus. Dr Fauci cautions on approving a vaccine without late-stage trials. The Whitehouse keeps hinting that corners may be cut to make a vaccine available to the public by year-end. Both Trump and Pence are proclaiming that a vaccine will be available to all Americans by Christmas. The CDC releases new testing guidelines saying that asymptomatic people should not be tested. President Trump is getting his way to not test as much. Trump surmises that if you test less people, you have less cases (in reality, the US would simply not identify the cases but these sick folks will be circulating in society). The Davos Economic Forum is moved to summertime instead of winter. The wealthy simply use covid as an excuse to move the event to a warmer time of the year. Davos is where the millionaires go to praise the billionaires. EU Trade Chief Hogan resigns after a scandal over a golf dinner called Golfgate. Hogan did not follow covid guidelines and instead was partying it up at a golf dinner. The wealthy are always telling the huddled masses to do as I say not as I do. There are other bigwigs involved but it will depend on how much governments want to sweep under the rug. After the RNC convention, Trump receives a bounce in the polls as typically occurs. The gap narrows between democrat challenger Biden and republican incumbent Trump. The battleground states narrow. This is key. If the battleground states polls are within the margin of error when the 11/3/20 Election Day arrives, Biden will be in serious trouble and a Trump reelection is very likely. Biden is flaling into the Hillary Clinton trap of not visiting the states although he plans to begin more campaigning next week. House Speaker Pelosi and Whitehouse Chief of Staff Meadows talk for 20 minutes on the telephone but make no progress in the stimulus bill negotiations. Pelosi says the republicans are unrealistic until they bump their overall number higher. Meadows actually introduces a skinny version only addressing a few items for $500 billion. Pelosi proclaims that the stimulus talks are at a "tragic impasse." Pelosi makes a comment in passing that Biden should not do any debates with Trump. The republicans jump on the statement and proclaim that it is proof that Biden is senile. Pelosi is a shrewd politician and the comment was likely placed to continue the narrative that Biden has reduced mental capacities. Note that after the DNC convention, Trump does not attack Biden's mental acuity as much. Democrats likely want this attack on Biden to continue so the debate expectations for Sleepy Joe will be as low as possible. Biden would be able to step over that low bar even with his weak thin legs. The political baby games have not even heated-up yet. There is lots of filthy dirt ahead.
Note Added Saturday, 8/29/20: 1200 students at the University of Alabama test positive for the virus but most are asymptomatic. The long-term effects of the virus remain an unknown. The filthy Chinese communists likely know far more than they are sharing with the world, after all, the virus is their bioweapon. There are 66 days until the presidential election. The first debate is 9/29/20 only 31 days away. Biden is in his basement eating Gingko Biloba supplements like candy while Trump stirs up the ongoing violence in cities claiming he is the only man that can fix it. Such is the ongoing collapse of the crony capitalism system in the United States. Americans are deciding which corrupt silver-haired white guy to vote for over the next couple months.
Note Added Sunday, 8/30/20: Moderna (ticker MRNA) says 24% of its phase three vaccine trial participants are from communities of color. They are obviously receiving criticism on the make-up of the test subjects. The virus impacts people of color more so a vaccine that works on middle-aged white folks may not create confidence. Retail bicycle sales are strong as folks find ways to occupy their time during lockdown periods or due to the closing of bars and restaurants and limiting concerts and other events. The riots and violence in Portland, Oregon, and Kenosha, Wisconsin, continue.
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