FedEx took the pipe yesterday collapsing -3.5%. That beating will leave a mark. FDX provided a gloomy forecast for the global economy sinking its ship as well as UPS that puked -2.2% in sympathy. These global shipping behemoths are key indicators of the world's economy.
The Keystone Speculator's UPS 20/50-Week MA Cross Indicator is an important decider of a cyclical bull market versus a cyclical bear. The 20-week MA is below the 50-week MA for UPS so the overall broad stock market remains in a cyclical bear market pattern. Keystone uses UPS for this signal and not FDX although they are two peas in a pod. UPS provides a bit more diversified look at the economy via the products it ships. The Philly Fed data is important this morning as another indicator of economic strength, or weakness.
Note how the 20/50-wk MA cross for FDX occurred back in late September exactly when the Q4 stock market bloodbath began. The 20/50 crosses for UPS are more choppy and unstable in nature. Each time the economy/market weakens, the Fed and other central bankers step in to keep things pumped. The 20-week MA is curling upwards so the bulls are trying to stage a turnaround for the cyclical signal. Market bears need to push price below 104.60 since that will curl the 20-week back down.
The FDX news and FDX and UPS charts above paint a stagnant sick picture for the shipping industry going forward which indicates that the economy may not be as strong as thought. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Note Added 8:42 AM EST: The Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey is 13.7 above the 5.5 expected and on the positive side again after last month's -4.1. A weak economy heading into recession will become apparent as PMI and other manufacturing data weakens (if the data weakens).
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