SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart; Battle for Cyclical Stock Market Control at the 12-Month MA at 2730

Thwack. Smack. Slap. Thwap. The bulls and bears battle at the key 12-month MA at 2730 which determines whether the stock market is in a cyclical bull or cyclical bear market pattern. Price is at ..... wait for it...... wait a little bit longer for it ......... 2730. The S&P 500 is coming up from the underside for a back kiss of the 12. Stocks will bounce or die from this pivot point and dictate the direction ahead for weeks and months to come.

This week is OpEx week so the professional traders are playing the Tuesday to Wednesday buoyancy in stock prices that typically occurs. Stocks usually move from a Tuesday low to a Wednesday high during OpEx week.

The HOD is 2739. Price is now printing 2733 at 10:44 AM EST on Tuesday, 2/12/19. This price action at the 12-month MA is for all the marbles. The 50-week MA is 2731 creating a strong resistance gauntlet today at 2730-2731.

If the stock market bulls win today, and create the start of a new cyclical bull market above the 12-month MA at 2730, the bears would have one last chance to stop the upside joy at the 2743-2747 resistance level. The 10-month MA is 2747. The 200-day MA is 2743. The 100-day MA is 2699. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 11:03 AM EST: The SPX is at 2740.33 pushing the stock market into a cyclical bull market pattern (of course you have to give it a few days or couple weeks to see if the signal sticks). The HOD prints a couple minutes ago at 2741.02. The stock market bulls are singing "Happy Days Are Here Again" while drinking Fed champagne and buying stocks with reckless abandon. The bulls proclaim that there is nothing but upside ahead and they say they cannot be stopped. The buoyancy is more due to happy trade talk, a potential agreement on the government shutdown and the expected Tuesday to Wednesday OpEx buoyancy. Note that the big euphoric jump in stocks is met with a more subtle slump in volatility. The VIX maintains a 15-handle at 15.38 briefly printing 14.95 earlier. Considering the huge upside and market joy, the VIX would instead be expected to be well into the 14's moving toward a 13-handle. The drama continues.

Note Added 11:15 AM EST: The SPX punches out another HOD at 2742.30, however, the VIX is at 15.35 perhaps hesitant to move lower. The bulls are looking at that 2743-2747 resistance and know if they get up through that it is smooth sailing. The bears are overturning tables and chairs and setting up a strong barricade of resistance at 2743-2747. The battle continues.

Note Added 12:44 PM EST: The bulls are singin' songs and carryin' on. The SPX prints a HOD at 2745 puncturing the 2743-2747 resistance gauntlet. The S&P 500 trades through 2740-2745 for the last couple hours and is now printing 2741. Interestingly, as the SPX is pumped higher by ecstatic joyous bulls, the VIX moves sideways and now moves higher to 15.62. Volatility should be moving lower intraday, considering the big ramp higher in equities, not higher.

Note Added 4:13 PM EST: The bulls win the day with the SPX closing at 2742 above the 12-month MA at 2730 so the stock market is in a cyclical bull market pattern going forward (give this a few days or week or two to make sure it sticks). No sooner was that last message posted at 12:44 PM EST than the Fed and/or other nefarious individuals jammed volatility lower. This coincides with the start of the fourth 65-minute trading segment on the day (each US trading session is divided into six (6) 65-minute sessions. At the start of the fourth segment which is from 12:45 PM EST to 1:50 PM EST, the robots came in jamming volatility lower like gangbusters. Obviously, the Fed, and/or other thieves, are placing their jackboots on the throat of volatility to pump stocks higher. They know if they can get up through the intense moving average resistance gauntlet discussed today than it is all-clear for big upside gains ahead. The VIX plummets from 15.65 to 15.10 in 45 minutes time. Boiinnnngg. The stock market pops higher. Fancy that. Another day at the crooked casino. Even with the nefarious intervention in markets, the VIX dropped today to 14.95 but was never able to take out that low (as equities rallied higher). The VIX moves sideways today finishing at 15.32 as the SPX launched higher. The VIX should have a 14-handle and perhaps a 13-handle so something is amuck. Either the VIX should drop like a rock when it begins trading at 3 AM EST 11 hours from now to prove that the stock market should go up and squeeze a bit more juice out, or, the VIX will maintain a 15-handle and keep hinting at buoyancy ahead, like trying to keep a beach ball underwater, which would kick in the selling that is expected by the neggie d on the 2-hour chart.