USD US Dollar Index Daily Chart

The rise in the US dollar sends the commodities lower including oil that smacks the energy stocks lower. The green lines show the falling wedge pattern, oversold RSI and stochastics and positive divergence across all the indicators which made the bounce an easy call. Plus, the drumbeat of negativity from pundits and media for the dollar created the conditions for price to pop instead.

The Aroon has not yet crossed so watch that to see if the upside move in USD continues. The stochastics punch up into overbot territory which hints that day or two of rest will be needed for price in the days ahead. The RSI is crossing above 50% which is bullish. The indicators are long and strong wanting higher highs in price after any pullback occurs in this daily time frame.

The lower band was violated so the middle band was on the table and the dollar tapped that at 89.66 with no problem. USD continues higher now seeking the upper standard deviation band at 90.94 and falling. It is reasonable to expect USD to move up into those resistance lines at 90.4-90.9 in the days ahead.

Typically, the US dollar is weak from July to December and strong from January to April which gels together with the technical analysis presented here.

The USD weekly chart bounced price with positive divergence and is agreeable to more up ahead on the weekly basis. The USD monthly chart is setting up with positive divergence but the MACD line remains weak and bleak. Thus, the dollar will likely move sideways to sideways higher for the days and a few weeks forward. However, USD will then likely roll over again and then retest the lows for this year. That would be expected to be a long-term bottom for the dollar say it forms in the March-June time frame. So the dollar should then be rising through through the back half of this year and into next year. A buoyant dollar will stop the euro from rising which will make ECB President Draghi happy.

The dollar should move through 90.0-91.5 for the coming days and weeks say a month or two. Then the dollar will roll over to the downside again and come down to 88.0-89.5 say April-May. Then after that, the dollar should trend slowly higher, sideways to sideways higher through this year and probably all through 2019. It will depend on how the chart progresses. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.