Friday, February 9, 2018

SPX S&P 500 2-Hour Chart; Positive Divergence; Lower Band Violation

We watched the SPX top out with negative divergence (red lines). It ended in that big up day that pierced the upper standard deviation band. The indicators were in negative divergence and the spankdown occurs. Price is smacked lower with this week's low print at 2580.56, the 150-day MA, so this number is important.

The 2-hour shows the lower low in price with all the indicators positively diverged. The possie d launches price higher to begin the Friday trade. There are lots of margin calls ongoing and unwinding of those faulty volatility products leading to sideways choppy price action.

The lower band is violated and note that it did not touch the middle band when it first violated the lower band on Monday and Tuesday so price needs to show respect to the middle band at 2681 and falling. RSI and stochastics are oversold agreeable to a move higher in this 2-hour time frame.

To go long, you prefer to see the Aroon with a positive cross and the PPO above zero, however. Look back at the start of the year how fast the Aroon can spike. The PPO was positively diverged a short time ago but this flush lower as this is typed pushes the PPO a bit lower. So keep an eye on these two parameters for a safer place to enter long (with the positive Aroon cross and PPO above zero). If more of a risk taker, the long side can be played now. As always jump ship if it gets out of hand to the downside.

As this is typed, price is coming back down sharply so watch how it tests the low at 2580.56.  Whoa. There she goes. The SPX takes out today's and yesterday's low and the 150-day MA at 2580 and flushes lower to 2568. The SPX taps on that lower standard deviation band so it needs to come back up to kiss that middle band at 2681 and falling.

Price makes two new lows over the last 3 candlesticks (6 hours) and the indicators remain possie d so price should recover. The chart wants to see a relief rally begin but the ongoing market unwinding has different ideas right now. The bulls and bears are battling.This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision. 

Note Added 11:19 AM EST: The SPX price is at 2580 battling the 150-day MA at 2580. This is where all the excitement and action is occurring today that will decide the market direction ahead and no one even mentioned the 150-day MA in business media. It's a bull-bear battle. Slap, slap.

Note Added Saturday Morning, 2/10/18: Friday was another crazy day with wild swings up and down. Price is moving among several key moving averages; 100-day MA 2640 (Friday's HOD); 150-day MA 2581; 10-month MA 2564; 200-day MA 2539 (Friday LOD 2533); 12-month MA 2532 (Keystone's cliff edge); 50-week MA 2512. Look at how price came down to the 12-mth MA and bounced directly off it. If 2532 is lost it is over for markets; they would have crashed. The 10-mth MA at 2564 is key and watched by old-timers. It would not be surprising to see the S&P 500 come down and kiss the 10-mth again. That 2532-2539 level is strong support and that is where price bounced.

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