Sunday, February 12, 2017

T AT&T Monthly Chart; Potential Double Top or 'M' Top; Overbot; Negative Divergence

Investors chase into T proclaiming that the stock has a great dividend and will weather any downdraft in markets. As they say in Brooklyn, "Good luck wit dat." T is forming a potential M top, or double top. Celebrity Ben Stein on Fox Business News tells viewers to buy AT&T. Stein says they are a "remarkably run company" and provide a "superb dividend." Don't buy T. People are likely running into a buzzsaw.

The indicators are universally negatively diverged wanting to see a spankdown, which started last week. Price is above the moving average lines needing a mean reversion lower. That M top is ominous looking.

Think of a joyous W pattern bottom for a stock or index which is the inverse pattern of the M top. When a W pattern bottom forms, especially under the 20 and 50 MA's, price is going to rally a long ways higher. The M to is the opposite outcome, the bearish result, and the downward power would be very strong since the double top has formed above the 20 and 50 MA's.

The money flow has some long and strong juice over the last year, so that may create a jog move (down up down on the monthly basis). So price may continue lower for a week or two, then bounce and come back up again for another look at the highs, or near the highs, in this monthly time frame, then roll over.

It appears very likely that AT&T is printing a multi-year top over the coming weeks. If you buy T for the long side, you may not see these prices again for 5 to 8 years once T rolls over and dies. Stein is an educated economist. Keystone is a guy sitting on a lawn chair listening to the birds sing. Do you think T will trend lower over the coming months and years after a top occurs say now through June, as Keystone describes above, or, will Ben Stein be correct and T will travel joyously higher over the coming months and years? This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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