SPX S&P 500 Support, Resistance (S/R), Moving Averages and Other Important Levels for Trading the Week of 3/7/16

SPX (S&P 500) support, resistance (S/R), moving averages and other important levels are provided for the trading week of 3/7/16. Levels shown in bold are strong resistance and support. Bold and underlined levels are very strong and important S/R. For 2016, the intraday high for the year is 2043.94 on 1/4/16 and the closing high for the year is 2016.71. For 2016, the intraday low for the year is 1810.10 on 8/11/16 and the closing low thus far for the year is 1829.08. The intraday low in 2015 was 1867.01 on 8/24/15 and intrayear closing low for 2015 is 1867.61 on 8/25/15.

Note last week’s price action coming up to 2009 a stone’s throw away from the 2017 closing high thus far this year. The SPX came up and pierced up through the important 200 EMA on the 60-minute chart at 1934 seven days ago signaling a bull market for the hours an days ahead and the stock market never looked back.

For Monday, 3/7/16, with the SPX starting at 2000, the bulls need to push above 2009-2011 to accelerate higher to the 2017-2019 range in a heartbeat where price will make a bounce or die decision. The bears need to push the SPX under the strong support gauntlet at 1985-1987 to get their mojo back and create an immediate downside acceleration to 1978. A move through 1988-1208 is sideways action to begin the week.

The ECB plans on firing another money bazooka on 3/10/16, Thursday, so the expectation would be for the euro to drop and European stocks to pop, however, stocks have already enjoyed a strong three-week rally.

Above the 2017-2019 level, the next resistance is the price level and 200-day MA at 2023. The 12-month MA at 2027 is an extremely important signal that tells you if stocks are in a cyclical (weeks and months) bull market or bear market. If the SPX remains under 2027, the stock market remains in the cyclical bear market pattern. Bulls win big above 2027 since stocks revert back into a cyclical bull market and the fears to begin the year will be over.

For the market bears, there is direct price support at 1996-1997, and then moderate support at 1993. S&P futures are -7 as this missive is typed about 2-1/2 hours before the 9:30 AM EST opening bell to begin the new week of trading. Therefore, price may be sticky at this 1993 in the early going where it makes a bounce or die decision. If price fails, it will immediately seek and test the uber strong support level at 1985-1998. If that fails, stocks will be in big trouble.

Looking at the near-term picture the strongest S/R is 2046, 2040, 2032, 2023, 2019, 2011, 2002, 1985-1988, 1978, 1973, 1965, 1961, 1951 and 1942-1943.

The new moon peaks tomorrow evening at 9 PM EST. Stocks are typically weak moving into and through the new moon each month so weakness may occur in the stock market from tomorrow into Wednesday.

Keybot the Quant algorithm remains long and firmly long. (Remember, Keybot is not programmed to catch exact market tops and bottoms but instead it moves through the year in the smoothest path possible). Market bears would need higher volatility and weak banks to turn the tables lower. This bullishness is very interesting since market signals such as the McClellan Oscillator, and put/call ratios tell a different story; they are in direct conflict.

As shown in the charts from a couple-three days ago, the NYMO is at multi-year highs above one hundo. The CPC and CPCE put/calls are at uber lows indicating rampant market complacency (traders are buying stocks without fear or worry). These indications suggest that a strong flush lower in stocks is very likely to begin at anytime, however, the overall bullish uptrend may continue (on a weekly basis) depending on how severe the selloff. What may happen is a drastic flush lower this week but it may be a short-lived event, a couple days, maybe 3 or 4 days then boom, a vertical spike recovery back to current levels.

Markets strive to constantly hurt and punish the maximum amount of traders. As everyone drank wine last Thursday and Friday buying stocks without a care (verified by the low put/calls and drop in the VIX), a move lower would sink all these long trades. Then, if the potential market selloff this week is sharply down, more bulls may panic and jump ship flipping to the short side convinced that stocks are going to collapse again and then, boom, stocks may recover bludgeoning all those that went short. The uber high NYMO and uber low put/calls must be respected for the hours and days ahead; these are very negative market signals. Considering these signals, the expectation would be that the SPX would likely drop to test the 1985-1988 support level at any time (for very short term (VST) trading) and make a critical bounce or die decision (bears would be favored to receive the failure at 1985).

It should be an eventful day and week ahead. Draghi will provide fireworks on Thursday. The Fed meets and provides a critical rate hike decision next Wednesday, 3/16/16.

Note: If the list below displays any blank spaces, view it in a different browser.

2135 (5/20/15 All-Time Intraday High: 2134.72)

2133 (7/20/15 Intraday High 2132.82)

2131 (5/21/15 All-Time Closing High: 2130.82)

2130 (6/22/15 Intraday High 2129.87)

2129

2128 (7/20/15 Closing High: 2128.28)

2126 (4/27/15 Intraday High: 2125.92)

2124 (6/23/15 Closing High: 2124.20)

2123

2121 (4/24/15 Intraday High: 2120.92)

2120 (2/25/15 Intraday High: 2119.59)

2118 (4/24/15 Closing High: 2117.69)

2117 (3/2/15 Closing High: 2117.39)

2114

2110

2109

2104

2103

2102

2100

2099

2097

2094 (12/29/14 Intraday High: 2093.55)

2093

2091 (12/29/14 Closing High: 2090.57)

2089

2086

2084

2083

2081

2080

2079 (12/5/14 Intraday High: 2079.47)

2077

2076 (11/28/14 Intraday High: 2075.76)

2075 (12/5/14 Closing High: 2075.37)

2073 (11/26/14 Closing High: 2072.83)

2071 (11/21/14 Intraday High: 2071.46)

2069

2067

2065

2064

2063

2061

2057

2056 (11/18/14 Intraday High: 2056.08)

2053

2052

2050

2046 (11/13/14 Intraday High: 2046.18)

2044 (12/31/15 Closing High: 2043.94)

2044 (1/4/16 Intraday High for 2016: 2043.94)

2043.94 Trading for 2016 Begins Here

2042

2040

2038

2034.04 (50-week MA)

2034

2032

2030.79 (20-month MA)

2030

2027.35 (12-month MA; a Keystone Cyclical Signal) (the cliff)

2023.06 (200-day MA)

2023

2022

2019 (9/19/14 Intraday High: 2019.26)

2017(1/5/16 Closing High for 2016: 2016.71)

2013.53 (10-month MA)

2011.69 (100-week MA)

2011 (9/18/14 Closing High: 2011.36) (9/4/14 Intraday High: 2011.17)

2009.13 Previous Week’s High

2009.13 Friday HOD

2007 (9/5/14 Closing High: 2007.71)

2005 (8/26/14 Intraday High: 2005.04)

2003 (8/29/14 Closing High: 2003.37)

2002

1999.99 Friday Close – Monday Starts Here

1999.81 (100-day MA)

1998

1997.48 (150-day MA; the Slope is a Keystone Cyclical Signal)

1997

1996.54 (20-week MA)

1995

1993 (1/15/15 Closing Low: 1992.67)

1991 (7/24/14 Intraday Top: 1991.39)

1988 (7/24/14 Closing High: 1987.98)

1986.77 Friday LOD

1986 (7/3/14 Intraday Top: 1985.59)

1985 (7/3/14 Closing High: 1985.44)

1983

1982

1981 (2/2/15 Intraday Low: 1980.90)

1980

1979

1978

1976

1973

1970

1968 (6/24/14 Intraday Top: 1968.17)

1965

1964

1963 (6/20/14 Closing High: 1962.87)

1961

1958

1956 (6/9/14 Intraday Top: 1955.55)

1951 (6/9/14 Closing High: 1951.27)

1949

1948

1943

1942

1938.13 (50-day MA)

1937

1936

1934.92 (200 EMA on 60-Minute Chart a Keystone Market Turn Signal)

1932.23 March Begins Here

1931.81 Previous Week’s Low

1931

1928

1924 (5/30/14 Intraday Top: 1924.03) (5/13/14 Closing High: 1923.57)

1920.10 (150-week MA)

1920

1918.81 (20-day MA)

1917

1914

1912

1910

1906

1902 (5/13/14 Intraday Top: 1902.17)

1901

1897 (5/13/14 Closing High: 1897.45) (4/4/14 Intraday Top: 1897.28)

1891 (4/2/14 Closing High: 1890.90)

1889

1886

1885

1884 (3/21/14 Intraday Top: 1883.97) (3/7/14 Intraday Top: 1883.57)

1882

1879

1878 (3/7/14 Closing High: 1878.04)

1877

1874

1873

1872

1870

1868 (8/25/15 Closing Low: 1867.61)

1867 (8/24/15 Intraday Low: 1867.01)

1865

1862

1859 (1/20/16 Closing Low: 1859.33)

1855

1851 (1/15/14 Intraday Top: 1850.84)

1849 (12/31/13 Intraday High Top for 2013: 1849.44)

1848 (1/15/14 Closing High: 1848.38) (12/31/13 Closing High for 2013: 1848.36)

1846

1845

1843

1841

1840

1839

1835

1831

1829 (2/11/16 Closing Low for 2016: 1829.08)

1828

1827

1824

1820

1816

1814 (11/29/13 Intraday Top: 1813.55)

1812 (12/9/13 Intraday Top: 1811.52) (1/20/16 Intraday Low: 1812.29)

1810 (2/11/16 Intraday Low for 2016: 1810.10)

1809 (12/9/13 Closing Top: 1808.37)

1808

1807 (11/27/13 Closing Top: 1807.23)

1806

1803

1801

1800

1799 (11/18/13 Intraday Top: 1798.82)

1798.74 (200-week MA)

1798 (11/15/13 Closing Top: 1798.18)

1796

1793

1791

1788

1785

1783

1782

1781

1779.64 (50-month MA)

1777

1775 (10/30/13 Intraday Top: 1775.22)

1772 (10/29/13 Closing Top: 1771.95)

1770

1768

1763

1762

1759

1756

1752

1748