Saturday, January 9, 2016

The Keystone Speculator's 187 Predictions for 2016

Typically, Keystone provides 100 predictions each year but things got out of hand this year and the list grows to 187 predictions (click the '2016 Predictions and Picks' link in the 'Pages' box in the right margin). The yearly forecast is great bedtime reading--guaranteed to put you asleep! Predictions provide comic relief for next December. Keystone is looking for another down year for the stock market and skews the forecast towards serious downside based on the long term rising wedge pattern from 2009-2015 collapsing.

The SPX targets by Wall Street analysts are listed with most forecasting between 2100-2300 all predicting an up year for stocks recycling their same price levels as last year. 

The 18-year stock market cycle is the most reliable cycle and stocks remain in a secular bear from 2000 to 2018. Sharp and strong cyclical bull rallies like 2003-2007 and 2009-2015 are very common inside secular bears. But since the secular bear cycle has only 2 or 3 more years in it, or 3 to 5 years if it becomes right-translated, the expectation would be for 2 of the next 3 years to be down for stocks or 3 of the next 4 years to be down for the stock market. So folks thinking they will receive big returns and that markets grow to the sky forever will be sorely disappointed over the next couple years or so. Deflation is expected to continue with inflation not kicking in until the 2018-2021 time frame and then the wild hyperinflation kicking in anytime after 2019.

The predictions cover the markets, stocks, currencies, bonds, and foreign affairs, politics, social unrest, fads and trends and other interesting topics. Keystone is typically correct for about two-thirds of the predictions each year. The Keystone Speculator was the only analyst to call for a down year in stocks in 2015, which occurred. The 2016 Predictions and Picks are accessed from the right margin under the 'Pages' heading and they will sit there all year for reference.

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