Wednesday, November 18, 2015

UPS United Parcel Service Weekly Chart 20/50-Week MA Signals Cyclical Bull Market

The market bears suffer a serious blow yesterday with the UPS 20-week MA crossing above the 50-week MA signaling a cyclical bull market ahead. The negative 20/50 MA cross occurs in May, as Keystone pointed out at the time, and was an excellent indicator of trouble to come; stocks fell down the rabbit hole in August-September. Is UPS signaling bullish fun for the year end and beyond? It will if the 20/50 cross remains positive.

UPS price is at 103.14 above the 20-week MA at 99.73 so this only serves to pull the 20 MA higher making for happy bulls. Market bears need to push UPS price under 99.73 pronto to cause the 20 to roll over to the downside and move back to a negative 20/50 cross. The chart hints at continued sideways action for weeks to come. That 93-ish support level is key; UPS will likely crash if that is lost.

FDX earnings are on tap this week and will directly impact UPS. Basically, if FDX reports great numbers, FedEx and United Parcel will both jump higher and the cyclical bull market call will be cast in stone. If FDX results are weak, the shipping stocks will drop, and the bears will flex their muscles and likely reverse the positive cross in the days and weeks ahead. Bears got nothing, however, unless they immediately pull price under the 20-week MA.

Watch the SPX 12-month MA cross as previously explained. This is another key cyclical market indicator and the SPX 12-month MA cross and UPS 20/50-week MA cross must come to an agreement and that tells you the cyclical (weeks and months) path ahead for the broad stock market. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 8:10 PM EST: The bulls create a huge stock market rally today. Three key cyclical market signals are updated. The SPX catapults to 2083 clearly up through the 12-month MA at 2051 signaling a cyclical bull market for the weeks and months ahead. Bears need to drop the SPX back under 2051 or they got nothing.

The NYA 40-week MA cross shows the NYA remaining well under signaling a cyclical bear market.

The UPS 20/50-week MA cross turns positive by a smidge over the last two days but nonetheless this signals a cyclical bull market ahead for stocks for the weeks and months to come. Thus, two signals are bullish and one bearish. Either the NYA needs to cross above the 40-week MA to join the bulls and guarnatee a multi-month stock market rally ahead, or, the SPX will retreat and slip back under 2051, and the UPS 20/50-week MA cross will reverse to a negative cross again, which would forecast weak and sick markets going forward through 2016. Continue to monitor these three key signals until you see all three agree which tells you the answer to market direction through 2016.

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