Saturday, November 7, 2015

SPX S&P 500 2-Hour Chart Standard Deviation Bands Tightening for a Big Move

The 2-hour was helpful in identifying the top last Tuesday. The overbot conditions, rising wedge, neggie d and upper band violation create the smack down. After the upper band violation, a move back to the middle band and perhaps the lower band is expected and both occur. Since the lower band was tapped a move back to the middle band is on the table and that occurs as stocks end the week at 2099-2100.

Note the pink standard deviation bands squeezing in tight. There is a big move coming but tight bands do not predict direction only that a big move will occur. Two tight bands in October both squeezed out upside moves one of 43 points and the other 60 handles. The bands are the tightest they have been since August right before the waterfall crash which was obviously a tight band squeeze that shot prices lower.

When price made the low three candlesticks ago the indicators were weak and bleak except for the flat RSI and stoch's in oversold territory which created the bounce over the last few hours. The expectation would be for price to head lower again to satisfy the weak and bleak MACD line, histogram and money flow. However, as always, the central bankers are powerful and are the market, so if Draghi or Yellen or Kuroda cough, and it sounds like they said easy money, stocks will explode higher.

The money flow is sneaky printing some buoyancy (green line) when price printed at 2108-ish so a move back to there would be on the table; 2110 is the uber strong price resistance level based on past price action so call it an upside target of 2108-2110 but the overall expectation would be for a continued move lower in this 2-hour time frame. If 2110 is taken out, 2118 is next and since that is breaking above the standard deviation lines the squeeze move would likely be higher with price headed towards 2125-2140.

A move up to 2110 would be relatively benign from a bear perspective since that would be where price would likely reverse to the downside and the effects of the tight band squeeze would send price down towards the 2060-2080 area. Next week may be a wild ride especially the back half due to the tight band squeeze. A new moon peaks for the month about lunch time on Wednesday, 11/11/15. Interesting; eleven-eleven. Typically stocks are weak moving through the new moon which would be Tuesday to Thursday. Big-time economic data hits on Friday, and the Federal Reserve says it is data dependent, including Retail Sales, PPI (Producer Price Index), Consumer Sentiment and Business Inventories. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.