Last week, price came up to fill a gap at 2033. There are gaps at 2077-2080 and 2096-2098. The SPX hourly and minute charts are rolling over with neggie d so market weakness is expected. The daily chart is mixed with some neggie d that jives with the weakness in the VST on the hourly and minute charts, but also wants to see a higher high in price after the pull back occurs so this higher high in price may occur on Tuesday or Wednesday. At that price high for the SPX the daily chart should roll over with neggie d across all indicators and perhaps more sustainable selling begins.
The CPCE and CPC put/call ratios are dropping into the complacency zone again. When central bankers are pumping liquidity and the Fed does not look like it wants to raise rates ever, stocks move higher and traders become relaxed since the central bankers will support stocks, and their wealthy friends, forever. This complacency indicates market topping behavior. The CBOE Skew prints an uber high 150-ish that signals a significant market top at hand to occur at anytime. This jives with the put/calls dropping. Thus, mixing all of the above together and sprinkling some magic dust on it all says stocks should top out probably by mid-week.
There are strong resistance gauntlets above at 2038-2041, then 2045-2050, then 2056-2061. Lump them together and call it 2038-2061; the war zone. You can watch the small battles at these levels but the bigger picture says bulls will rally into year end above 2061 but bears will growl to finish the year if price stays under 2038. Bears need to push under 2032 support, then 2019 to get the ball rolling down hill. As the previous SPX monthly chart and th elist below highlights, the 10 and 12-month MA's are at 2045-2048 and this level is uber important and will dictate the path into the end of the year as well as if stocks are in a cyclical bear or bull (the SPX is under the 12-month MA at 2045 signaling an ongoing cyclical bear market).
Keep referencing the 200 EMA on the 60-mintue chart at 1981 that currently signals bullish markets for the hours and days ahead and the 8/34 MA cross on the 30-minute chart which currently signals bullish markets for the hours ahead. Bears need the negative 8/34 MA cross on the 30-minute chart and for price to make its way back down and fail at 1981.