Thursday, October 1, 2015

RUT Russell 2000 Small Caps Daily Chart Downward-Sloping Channels Oversold Positive Divergence

The Russell 2000 small caps daily chart shows price trending downwards for the last three months. The monthly chart exhibits the 'three black crows' pattern for July-August-September. Most interestingly, the RUT ruptures the August lows. Price did not rupture the August lows for the S&P 500 (SPX), Dow Industrials (INDU) and Nasdq Composite (COMPQ). If you subscribe to the thought that small caps lead the broad market the weakness in the RUT hints at lower stock prices for the broad market ahead.

All the doom and gloom aside, the green  lines show universal possie d for all the indicators and the stochastics are also oversold; this set up indicates a bounce in price is on tap which occurs yesterday and should recover further. 1120 is horizontal price resistance and the top trend line of the channel line so that serves as a logical upside target. The 1100 level is key since the algorithms flushed the broad market lower once the 1100 failed the other day.

The pink box shows the ADX line trying to keep its head above 25 which indicates a strong trend. In the chart above price is falling so the ADX told you in early August that the slide lower has juice and it is a strong trend lower. In mid-August the waterfall crash of 100 handles occurs. If the ADX drops under 25 and trends lower from here than the RUT will base and recover in this daily time frame. If the ADX stays in the pink box moving higher the downward trend is strengthening again and the RUT will be slapped around some more.

The RUT has fallen from over 1290 to under 1080, -16.3% in only 13 weeks time. The positive divergence should create lift in price and positive seasonality for the start of a  new month and quarter may also help create buoyancy in stocks in this daily time frame. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.