Friday, October 3, 2014

SPX Daily Chart

The bulls enjoy a strong upside rally today mainly fed by financials. The 100-day MA is 1959.45 and was taken out to the upside today now it serves as support. The 20-week MA is 1964.92. The 50-day MA is 1974.71 and will need back kissed at some point forward. The 200 EMA on the 60-minute, a critical bull-bear line in the sand, is 1979.76. Combining these levels with the horizontal S/R levels identifies key support and resistance levels at 1988, 1985-1986, 1980, 1973-1975, 1965, 1959-1961, 1951-1952, 1928 and 1924-1926. Price is currently fighting at the 1965 S/R deciding which way to go.

Note how price collapsed under the lower standard deviation band yesterday that had to be responded with a vertical spike higher, by definition, and desire to move back to the middle band which is also the 20-day MA at 1985.30 and dropping. The 20-day MA is dropping quickly and will be at the 50-day MA level at 1975 in a day or two. So a back kiss of the middle band would put the 1973-1975 and 1980 resistance levels in play. The indicators are not tipping their hand.

The red lines made calling the two tops easy as Keystone described along the way. Remember the craziness at the tight band squeeze at the top? The neggie d controlled the direction and created the spankdown from the tight band. The thin blue lines for the indicators show a preference for price to stagger sideways. Note how price bounced off the 150-day MA so that moving average carries clout moving forward. Simply follow the support and resistance above to gauge the strength of the market today.

The 8 MA pierces above the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart this morning signaling bullish markets for the hours ahead. See previous chart. The SPX is under the 200 EMA on the 60-minute at 1980 signaling bearish markets for the hours and days ahead. One of them will flinch and join the other camp and this will verify the market direction ahead.

Keybot the Quant remains short and is tracking financial and the NYA index as the two key market directional influences today. Watch XLF 23.07 and NYA 10630.  XLF popped above the 23.07 bull-bear line in the sand (identified by the algorithm) so this sends equities higher today. The NYA attacked the 10630 bull-bear line in the sand but pulled back. This peak and pull back creates the earlier market high and pull  back. As this message is typed, here comes NYA again, now up to 10622. This is very important. The stock market will ride an orgy of joy higher if NYA 10630 is taken out now only 8 points away. Equities will stumble sideways to sideways lower the remainder of the day if NYA does not move above 10630. The market bears need to push XLF under 23.07 to accelerate the market selling again. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 12:32 PM: Equities are melting up. The SPX is at 1968.16 so the 1973-1975 resistance is in play and this encompasses the 50-day MA at 1974.76. The NYA is at 10623, interestingly, not yet at the 10630 bull-bear level identified by the Keybot the Quant algorithm. Despite the stock market intraday highs, the algo wants to see NYA above 10630 to prove that up is the direction forward.

Note Added 12:35 PM: NYA 10625 only five points away from confirming the bullish euphoria. SPX 1967.

Note Added 12:39 PM: NYA 10629. SPX 1968. It's on a silver platter for the bulls; all they need is one more point in the NYA, and to remain above 10630 and equities will take another strong leg higher. Bulls are so close they can taste it. What say you NYA?

Note Added 12:43 PM: NYA 10632. The bulls punch up through NYA 10630 so markets should take another leg higher. Dow is up over 200 points above 17K. The NYA needs to hold this level and higher for 7 to 10 minutes to lock it in so the bears have a chance to reverse the bullish joy but only in a window of the next few minutes. SPX 1970. Whoa. NYA jumps to 10635.

Note Added 12:47 PM: NYA 10638. Bulls are locking it in and should enjoy a euphoric market up day today. Markets will remain elevated as long as NYA stays above 10630 so keep an eye on this today as a main market directional tool. The 50-day MA is 1974.79 and serves as a resistance ceiling. The 50-day needed a back kiss at some point anyway so it may as well be right away today. If price teases the 50-day MA that will set up a bounce or die decision. For now, NYA is 10638 above 10630 so the SPX remains elevated at 1970.

Note Added 12:58 PM: Whoa. NYA 10642 so the bulls are locking in the upside path.

Note Added 3:38 PM: NYA 10637. The bulls kept the NYA Index elevated all afternoon to keep the broader stock market elevated. Remember, the NYA is one of the few signals mentioned here that you can follow on your own. The key NYA level is the 40-week MA now at 10629.30 and this level identifies a cyclical bull market versus a cyclical bear market for all equities. So it is very important and needs to be watched all next week. The day will end happy at these levels unless the bears can push the NYA 7 points lower. Market volume is not impressive only at a run rate of three-fourths of a day's average volume. The SPX HOD is 1971.19. That is an odd level to peak at since it was so close to the 1973-1975 you would figure it would test this key resistance. Perhaps on Monday. The 50-day MA is 1974.77. Bulls were so close they should have at least touched the 50-day with a quickie spike.

Note Added 3:48 PM:  Whoa. Late day drama. NYA collapses to 10632 handle...... bounces back to 10635 .......

Note Added 3:53 PM: NYA 10637 so the bulls want to keep the party going into the weekend.

Note Added 4:06 PM: NYA 10644 running higher in the final minutes so the bulls have a big feather in their caps going into next week and equities remain in a cyclical bull market using the NYA 40-week MA cross metric. SPX ends at 1968. Perhaps Monday morning SPX price will jump to 1975 for a bounce or die decision to begin the week.

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