Monday, September 15, 2014

SPX 60-Minute Chart 200 EMA Cross

The SPX is above the 200 EMA on the 60-minute at 1982.77 signaling bullish markets for the hours and days ahead, however, note that there is an intense fight occurring for this critical level. Very bad things will happen to the stock market if the 200 EMA fails. The bulls keep finding a way to keep their heads above water and today they are floating pennies above danger.

The  lower lows in price are met with positive divergence so a sideways to sideways higher path ahead is a reasonable expectation. The Fed announcements and circus is Wednesday afternoon less than two days away so markets may float sideways until then.

Reference the previous chart where the 8 MA remains under the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart signaliing bearish markets for the hours ahead so one of these two charts will flinch. Either the 30-minute 8/34 MA cross will turn bullish verifying market upside ahead, or, the 60-minute 200 EMA cross will turn bearish with the SPX falling through 1982.77 signaling big trouble ahead.

Keybot the Quant remains short and the algo is active today printing four numbers thus far. Utilities and semiconductors are the two major parameters effecting market direction currently. Watch UTIL 550 and SOX 632.85. Both turned bearish a couple hours ago creating the market negativity but then turn bullish again creating the come back in the stock market today. VIX 12.37 is another important level and volatility is far higher which provides the bear's a large feather for their caps moving forward. Remember, the VIX 200-day MA is another important market signal level and with VIX currently  printing 13.88, bears are comfortable seeing price remain above the 200-day at 13.57. If VIX drops under 13.57 this afternoon, the bulls will be mounting a strong move higher in stocks into the closing bell.

So watch the 30-minute and 60-minute charts as describved above to see who flinches and which side wins. Use UTIL 550, SOX 632.85 and VIX 13.57 and 12.37 as your key levels to gauge market direction. Key S/R is 1991, 1988, 1985-1986 and 1973. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 1:30 PM: SPX 1982.45. As the astronauts proclaim decades ago, "Houston, we have a problem." It is odd to see price sneaking under the 200 EMA since UTIL and SOX are remaining bullish and well bid above their critical levels identified by the Keybot the Quant algorithm.

Note Added 1:35 PM:  The SPX is above 1983 again. Bears need weaker utes and semi's to create the next strong leg lower for stocks, otherwise, markets may stagger sideways until Fed Chair Yellen tap dances on Wednesday. If SPX loses the 200 EMA at 1982.77 and remains under it is curtains for equities. Bulls are fine as long as they do not permit 1982.77 to fail.

Note Added 1:41 PM: The SPX is 1982.34 as Keystone sings, "You put your right foot in, you put your right foot out, you put your...." The bulls and bears are pushing and pulling the SPX along the key 1982.77 each side realizing the critical importance of this level. Ute and semicondutors are holding up on the bull side so a failure of the 200 EMA would not be anticipated, for now.

Note Added 1:50 PM: SPX 1982.77. You cannot make this stuff up; price is balancing directly on the tight rope. If 1982.77 fails, bears need to hold the failure for 7 to 10 minutes, if that occurs, the SPX should be at 1973 support in a heartbeat.

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