Thursday, September 4, 2014

SPX 30-Minute Chart 8/34 MA Cross New All-Time Record Intraday High Upward-Sloping Channel Negative Divergence

The 8 MA remains above the 34 MA signaling bullish markets for the hours ahead, however, the bears have pushed the SPX price under the 8 MA at 2007.28 which will curl the 8 MA downward to set up a negative 8/34 cross in the candlesticks ahead. The green and red circles show how the bulls will not allow the bears to shine. Even when the bears create a negative 8/34 cross they are quickly slapped in the face again. Bears got nothing until they receive the negative 8/34 cross.

The previous 30-minute chart that was posted was set up or setting up with neggie d (a spank down in the SPX price would be expected) with the ECB decision the remaining wild card. President Draghi fired the QE money bazooka with euro's raining down on everyone. He started passing out euro's to alleviate his stuffed pockets. Europe is going to run the printing presses and goose the stock markets with easy money. The SPX bounced today printing a new all-time intraday high at 2011.17. This price print nails the 1.24% Fibonacci extension target at 2009-2013 for the move down from the July top to the 1905 bottom. Got that? Is it clear as mud? In other words, the SPX retraced the entire July-August selling move with the rally during August into September. Since that is a 100% retracement, an additional price level projection can be targeted at the 1.24% Fib extension which corresponds to the 2009-2013 price level. The simple version is that price would be prone to pull back from this level just as it is from any Fibonacci retracement level.

Price violated the upper standard deviation boundary (dark green line) so a move back to the middle band is needed, at 2004.29, and price came down very near an hour ago but did not touch. It should touch to show respect and also the lower band at 1998 remains in play.

The upward-sloping channel is ongoing with price coming off the top rail and in the center of the channel. The maroon lines show universal negative divergence across both the one-week time frame as well as the one-day time frame for all indicators so a continued move lower for price is anticipated. The brown lines show key support at 2005, 2003, 2000, 1995 and 1991. Watch to see if the RSI and stochastics slip under the 50% level into bear territory which would indicate further weakness ahead. Watch the 8/34 MA cross. The bears will need to push under the strong 2005 support to then test the strong 2003 support. If 2003 fails, the bears will move price lower to the strong 1991 support. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 1:49 PM:  The SPX comes down to touch the middle standard deviation band at 2004.29 so that at least satisfies the initial requirements due to price violating the upper band 3 hours ago. As the VIX recovers today now at 12.12 moving higher stocks move lower. TRIN is 0.93 on each side of one today refusing to choose a side for this epic bull-bears struggle. Note that the BPSPX is on the verge of creating a market buy signal so today is very important. Type 'BPSPX' into the search box at the right to bring up the last BPSPX chart. It is on a market sell signal but a six percentage-point reversal will issue a a market buy signal and confirm more upside bullish joy to come. The low a few days ago was 70.50-ish so if the BPSPX prints above 76.50-ish a market buy signal occurs and the bulls will be headed to SPX 2020's. The BPSPX is at 76.20 only a whisker away from 76.50 and printed a high today at 76.40 adding to the drama. Check BPSPX after the closing bell.

Note Added 2:02 PM:  Copper is higher all day but off the highs and the JJC is at 38.25 unable to yet attack the 38.68 bull-bear level identified by the Keybot the Quant algorithm. VIX is 12.13 with the bears not yet able to push the VIX above 12.46 the bull-bear level identified by the quant. Thus, markets stagger sideways. The ebb and flow of markets continue with the bears pushing volatility higher the last couple days but could not achieve the VIX 12.46 goal, and now today, with bulls pushing copper higher but unable to achieve the JJC 38.68 goal. One of these two are going to win at any time and the winner tells you the market direction ahead.

Note Added 2:19 PM:  For the 30-minute chart above, the RSI is now at 49.99 and stochastics at 48.96 both slipping into bear territory. The SPX has a 2003 handle so a test of the strong 2003 support is occurring. Bears will create a path to 1991 if they can get 2003 to fail. VIX 12.16. JJC 38.23. TRIN 0.87 trending lower for the last two hours; this is bull-friendly to end the session unless the bears can send the TRIN higher to one and higher.

Note Added 5:52 PM:  The neggie d spanked price lower this afternoon. The 8 MA stabs down through the 34 MA in the final minutes placing the bears in the driver's seat. The only way the bulls can save the day is with a strong upside opening at the bell tomorrow and as fate would have it, the Monthly Jobs Report is on tap at 8:30 AM EST that may create the wild move. The VIX ran above 12.46 which flushed the broad markets lower. Keybot the Quant flips to the bear side. VIX 12.45 and JJC 38.68 remain important; both are bearish causing market negativity. The bulls must return one of these two parameters into the bull camp to stop the selling. The TRIN ran above one during the height of the market selling after 3 PM but then fell to 0.78 at the close helping the bulls recover into the bell. The BPSPX is 76.20 so the bulls still need 76.50 and higher to receive a market buy signal.

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