Monday, October 28, 2013

Keystone's Key Events and Market Movers for Trading the Week of 10/28/13

Key Dates and Times for the Trading Week Ahead:

Monday, 10/28/13: Industrial Production 9:15 AM. Pending Home Sales Index 10 AM. Dallas Fed Mfg Survey 10:30 AM. Bradley turn window opens for a strong market move to occur (Bradley model does not predict direction only the time of an event) between now and 11/10/13. Earnings: AAPL, BALT, BIIB, BKW, LNG, CGNX, EW, FMC, GNK, GGP, GERN, HIG, HLF, HTZ, IDIX, LINE, MAS, MELI, MRK, NVAX, OII, PCL, RTI, STX, SIGA, SOHU, TARO, VPHM, XNPT, YRCW.
Tuesday, 10/29/13: PPI and Retail Sales 8:30 AM.  FOMC 2-day meeting begins. S&P Case-Shiller House Price Index 9 AM. Business Inventories and Consumer Confidence 10 AM—market pivot point. 5-Year Note Auction 1 PM. Earnings: ACPW, APD, AMP, ADM, BXP, CBT, CERS, CBI, CRUS, DDD, DWA, EIX, EA, FDP, GNW, HRS, HUN, IACI, JBLU, JCI, LLL, LNKD, LYB, MSO, NANO, OXY, KWR, QCOR, RRC, RYL, SCHN, GT, TRW, UTHR, UHS, VLO, VRTX, VSH, WM, WTS, XYL, X, XCO, YELP.
Wednesday, 10/30/13: Mortgage Applications 7 AM. ADP Employment Report 8:15 AM. CPI 8:30 AM. Oil Inventories 10:30 AM. 7-Year Note Auction 1 PM. FOMC Meeting Announcement 2 PM—market pivot point. No one expects QE tapering to begin since the economic data is delayed due to the government shutdown. Earnings: ADP, AMT, BAH, BWA, CAR, CROX, DBD, EXC, EXPE, FB, GLW, GM, GRMN, GLUU, HBI, HTS, HEP, H, ITMN, ISIL, ITRI, JDSU, KS, LFUS, MAR, MOH, MUR, NANX, OI, PSX, SKUL, SO, SBUX, TASR, THOR, V, WLT, WMB, WTW.
Thursday, 10/31/13: Happy Halloween. EOM. Challenger Job Report 7:30 AM. Jobless Claims 8:30 AM. Chicago PMI 9:45 AM. Natty Gas Inventories 10:30 AM. Farm Prices 3 PM. Earnings: AIG, AVP, BBG, BYD, CRR, CAH, CI, CLX, COR, COP, EL, FLR, GBX, GTLS, KOG, MPC, MOD, NEM, NI, NILE, NU, ONNN, OSK, PRGO, PPC, PPL, PSA, PWR, SPF, TDC, WNR, XOM.
Friday, 11/1/13: All Saints Day. China and Asia PMI’sEuropean PMI’s. Motor Vehicle Sales. Fed’s Bullard speaks 8 AM. ISM Mfg Index 10 AM—market pivot point. Fed’s Kocherlakota speaks 11:15 AM. Earnings: AXL, BPL, CBOE, CTB, HPOL, OSIR, RUTH, UPL.


Sunday, 11/3/13: Major Bradley Turn date—markets would be expected to move violently up, or violently down, within +/- 7 days of today, especially +/- 3 days.
Monday, 11/4/13: Factory Orders 10 AM. Earnings:
Tuesday, 11/5/13: ISM Non-Mfg Index 10 AM. Fed’s Lacker speaks 12:30 PM. Earnings:
Wednesday, 11/6/13: Mortgage Applications 7 AM. Oil Inventories 10:30 AM. Earnings:
Thursday, 11/7/13: Chain Store Sales. Jobless Claims and GDP 8:30 AM. Fed’s Stein speaks 9:10 AM. Natty Gas Inventories 10:30 AM. Consumer Credit 3 PM. Earnings:
Friday, 11/8/13: Personal Income and Outlays and Monthly Jobs Report 8:30 AM. Consumer Sentiment 9:55 AM—market pivot point. JOLTS Job Openings Report 10 AM. Earnings:


Monday, 11/11/13: Veteran’s Day.  Markets are Open. Banks are Closed.  Earnings:
Tuesday, 11/12/13: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index 7:30 AM. Chicago Fed National Activity Index 8:30 AM. 3-Year Note Auction 1 PM. Fed’s Kocherlakota speaks 1 PM. Keystone’s Eclipse Indicator targets 11/12/13 through 12/10/13 as having potential for a major market selloff. Earnings:
Wednesday, 11/13/13: Mortgage Applications 7 AM. Import and Export Prices 8:30 AM. Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations 10 AM. 10-Year Note Auction 1 PM. Treasury Budget 2 PM. Chairman Bernanke speaks 7 PM.  Earnings:
Thursday, 11/14/13: Jobless Claims, Productivity and Costs, International Trade 8:30 AM. Fed’s Plosser speaks 9 AM. Natty Gas Inventories 10:30 AM. Oil Inventories 11 AM. 30-Year Bond Auction 1 PM. Earnings:
Friday, 11/15/13: Empire State Mfg Survey 8:30 AM. Industrial Production 9:15 AM. Wholesale Trade 10 AM—market pivot point. Twitter IPO begins trading on the NYSE. Earnings:


Wednesday, 11/20/13: BOJ 2-day meeting begins.
Thursday, 11/21/13: BOJ rate and policy decision. BOJ must deliver more QE to weaken the yen and send the Nikkei and U.S. equities higher moving into early 2014.


In Q4, European bank stress tests begin and will be dragged out over one year’s time. About 10% of the 128 banks are likely undercapitalized with no clear way on how to recapitalize these troubled institutions. Germany’s high court must decide if the ECB’s OMT program is constitutional.  Europe must finalize all plans for the new banking union.


Friday, 12/13/13: Congress provides a detailed road map to handle the U.S. budget crisis moving forward.  Earnings:


Sunday, 12/15/13: Today is the deadline to sign up for the Affordable Health Care Act which begins 1/1/14. 7 million people are needed to sign up for Obamacare, otherwise, the program will start bleeding money and require a future bailout by the taxpayers.
Thursday, 12/19/13: BOJ 2-day meeting begins.
Friday, 12/20/13: BOJ rate and policy decision.

----------------------------  2014  ---------------------------

Tuesday, 1/1/14: Major Bradley Turn date—markets would be expected to move violently up, or violently down, within +/- 7 days, especially +/- 3 days.
Wednesday, 1/9/14: Major Bradley Turn date—markets would be expected to move violently up, or violently down, within +/- 7 days, especially +/- 3 days.
Wednesday, 1/15/14: A Continuing Resolution (CR) is needed to fund and keep the U.S. government open.
Wednesday, 1/29/14: Chairman Bernanke conducts his last official two-day meeting (1/28 and 1/29) as Chair of the FOMC.
Friday, 1/31/14: Chairman Bernanke’s term ends at the Fed. Yellen takes over.
Friday, 2/7/14: The Debt Ceiling Limit is hit where the U.S. may default on obligations. Treasury Secretary Lew will use extraordinary measures to extend this time forward so late February or early March is a likelier deadline.  Winter Olympics begin in Sochi, Russia, through 2/23/14. Watch $RTSI and RSX.
Wednesday, 3/19/14: new Fed Chair Yellen talks at the conclusion of her first FOMC meeting (3/18 and 3/19).
February/March: Fed Chair Yellen testifies before Congress.
March: ESM is officially ‘fully operational’. The Euro banking union is in place after delays from January 2013 to January 2014 and now to March 2014.
April: MSFT no longer supports Windows XP.

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