Wednesday, February 8, 2012

USD US Dollar Index Daily Chart Channel

Dollar daily chart shows price printing lower lows but the MACD histogram, stochastics and money flow are all positively diverged wanting a bounce in price now. Remember, dollar up=commodities down=equities down.

Note, however, the MACD line and RSI over the last few days is actually weaker, thus, once the bounce is satisfied, the dollar should come back down again in price to satisfy the RSI and MACD line, then all indicators should be positively diverged and the dollar can make a more substantial push higher. Perhaps the lower rail of the blue channel will serve as the low after a bounce occurs.

The pink box shows a fractal from November, right when the 20 MA fell thru the 50 MA, which was actually when price was bouncing. So watch to see if that fractal is in play again now.  The moving averages, by their very nature, are constantly lagging price.

Projection is a bounce in the dollar now, which will correspond to weaker markets, then a drop back down again for the dollar, which will allow the equities markets to recover again, but then the dollar should be ready for more upside, thus the equities markets would weaken moving forward into the short to intermediate term.  This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only.  Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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