Thursday, September 22, 2011

Keystone's Inflation Deflation Indicator Approaches Disinflation

Let's take another look at the inflation-deflation gauge. Reference back a few posts if you are not up to speed with what this is showing.

As 10-year yield falls, price is up, thus the latest number is,

CRB/10-yr price = 321.43/102.906 = 3.1

Over 4 = Inflation
Between 3 and 4 = Neutral; Inflationists and Deflationists duke it out
Between 2.9 and 3.0 = Disinflation
Under 2.9 = Deflation

In only a couple days the indicator has dropped from 3.3 to 3.1 now on the verge of slipping into Disinflation. As the markets open today, watch commodities, the CRB, perhaps Disinflation will be triggered soon, perhaps today.

Note Added 8:32 AM EST:  313.07/103.312 = 3.03, now only a smidge from signaling Disinflation.

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