MUB Muni Bond Fund receiving lots of attention as muni-friendly analysts take turns slapping Meredith Whitney's 60 Minutes projections. When that story aired on tv October-December 2010, the muni's sold off strongly. This was all easily forecasted ahead of time with TA by the dramatic negative divergence red lines. Then after the Fall 2010 60 Minutes show, the price bottomed in January 2011, and received a strong positive divergence bounce. A Fibonacci retracement range to 38% to 50% is receiving all the attention now, between 99.0 and 100.3. The indicators are weak so an exploration of the 99 gap fill would be in order but overall, moving forward, the movement will probably excite neither side of the muni debate.
Like the treasuries, notes and bonds these days, MUB exhibits a sideways feel moving forward. A range of 97.5 to 101.5, and more specifically 99.0 to 100.3, would be in order moving thru the weeks ahead. A move towards the lower end in the nearer time frame, 99 and 98, perhaps in concert with announcements of State and Muni funding issues, would be anticipated, giving Meredith Whitney's view a slight edge, but, both sides will be able to claim some victory as the chart slides sideways across this year. The flat 200 MA at 101 and change should provide a ceiling thru the summer time. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not trade based on this information. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
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