Saturday, March 12, 2011

Keystone's Key Dates to Watch Moving Forward

       The FOMC, Housing Starts, ECB, Government Shutdown and OPEX all rolled into one fun-filled week ahead.  Add on a potential China rate hike coming at any time.  Do not forget about a Japan sell-off Sunday night since the earthquake occurred at the very end of their Friday session.   As if that is not enough, Quadruple Witching is flying overhead, high gasoline and oil prices stay in the mix, Libya freedom fighters struggle and the Europe crisis is once again escalating with Portugal needing a bailout any week now.  A very high stakes week indeed.

1.      POMO Pumps:  QE2 market pumps from 10:15 AM to 11 AM each day favoring bulls.  No POMO pump on 3/15/11 due to Fed rate meeting.
2.      Continuing Geopolitical Events such as Libya, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, N. Korea:  Dollar bullish and equity bearish.  Gold bullish.  Behrain is the big worry, so far all is calm.
3.      State and Muni Crisis:  Muni’s should experience pain first.  Muni’s rely on State funds.  Many State budgets turn over in June and July, only two months away.
4.      Europe Crisis Continues:  Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain, the PIIGS.  Italy has close business ties to Libya which may expose Italy’s bad paper. Portugal will need a bailout and this will be in the news from now on.  Weaker euro=stronger dollar index=weaker U.S. equities.
5.      ECB Rate Hike:  ECB bluster about a rate hike 4/7/11.  Trichet raised rates July 2008—exactly at the wrong time, right when the commodities bubble popped. Trichet calling a top again?
6.      China Property Bubble and China Contagion:  When it pops, anytime now, it sure will be a sight.
7.      PBOC, China Rate Hikes:  First hike 10/19/10, 25 bips; second hike Christmas 12/25/10, 25 bips; third hike on 2/8/11.  Expect the hikes to continue.  High inflation data last week so perhaps a hike as early as this week, the week of 3/14/11, and even Sunday, 3/13/11.  The rate hike will cause commodities, and copper, to sell off.
8.      India, Brazil and other Emerging Market Rate Hikes:  Same effects as China rate hikes, commodities sell off.
9.      Wiki Leaks:  Bank or other surprises? This has turned into bluster.
10.  Japan Intervention:  Japan intervention in the dollar/yen may occur anytime.
11.  Congress:  Market bullish when not in session, market bearish when in session.
12.  Strategic Oil Reserve:  Should drain about 7 million bbls over next few months for renovations, say a million bbls per month supply will hit the market now into Fall.
13.  3/15/11:  FOMC one-day meeting, 2:15 PM EST announcement.  FOMC meeting days are typically flat to up.
14.  3/16/11: Housing Starts, 8:30 AM EST announcement.   Always a market mover.
15.  3/17/11: ECB meeting in Frankfurt
16.  3/18/11:  Budget Crisis Deadline extended from 3/4/11.  Government shutdown?
17.  3/18/11:  OPEX Quadruple Witching
18.  3/24/11 and 3/25/11:  EU Council Meeting.
19.  4/7/11: Potential ECB rate hike.
20.  4/26/11 and 4/27/11: FOMC two-day meeting, QE3 announcement?  FOMC meeting days are typically flat to up.
21.  5/1/11 and on:  California financial decisions.  Will these decisions spook the country?
22.  5/15/11: Eclipse Sell-off Technique targets this time frame as a potential large market selloff area.
23.  June 2011:  EU Bank Stress Test Results.
24.  June 2011:  QE2 Ends.
25.  6/15/11:  Bradley Turn date.
26.  6/22/11:  Bradley Turn date.
27.  7/15/11: Eclipse Sell-off Technique targets this time frame as a potential large market selloff area.
28.  7/29/11 and 7/30/11:  Major Bradley Turn date.
     29.  2012:  China chooses a new Premier, smooth transition?

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