President Trump's Final 80 Days: The Real-Time 80-Day Chronology of the Historic 2020 US Presidential Election, Biden Win, Trump Loss, Georgia Runoffs, Capitol Hill Riot, Impeachment & Inauguration 11/2/20 through 1/20/21

President Trump's Final 80 Days

The 80-day period between the US 2020 presidential election and the inauguration is the most extraordinary period in American history in decades. Relive the drama in real-time from Election Eve through Inauguration Day 11/2/20 through 1/20/21. What a crazy ride. Feel the wind in your hair. Experience the daily zeitgeist.

This is not boring revisionist history telling; it is the real-time daily raw political action unfolding in front of your face. After four days of vote counting drama, President Biden wins the election on 11/7/20 and is named 46th POTUS. Ballots are in suitcases. President Trump refuses to concede. The pandemic rages on. It is pandemonium.

Trump continues the election fraud saga after the Electoral College Certification on 12/14/20. The Georgia runoff elections on 1/5/21 create a twist in the saga. Then the fateful day occurs; 1/6/21.

Relive the Trump Rally and Capitol Hill Riot in real-time; the QAnon Shaman, Zip Tie Man and tragically, five dead bodies. The riot, and republicans contesting the electoral college votes from several states, pushes the Congressional certification of the Biden win from 1/6/21 into the wee hours of the morning on 1/7/21.

The Trump impeachment follows on 1/13/21 and then the Trump departure and Biden inauguration on 1/20/21. It is a remarkable 80 days of American history chronicled in detail in real-time including Lady Gaga’s gold microphone. The book is an easy read and you will not be disappointed.

This book is for armchair political groupies, historians, teachers, students, journalists, reporters, writers, speakers, researchers, politicians, public officials, political hacks, television pundits, non-fiction enthusiasts and anyone that wants to relive the 80 crazy days of drama from the 2020 US election in early November 2020 through the Biden inauguration in mid-January 2021.

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LIBOR3 and SPX S&P 500 Daily Charts; Libor Prints All-Time Low

LIBOR3, the 3-month London Interbank offered rate, is at its all-time record low. That's funky. Short-term interest rates are set off Libor. Whoopie ding. It only matters if it is a useful stock trading pattern. Keystone has been called a lie and a bore but he promptly informed the person that is not the Libor he is discussing.

Note how each time the Libor came down to make a bottom, then started up, that blue hook pattern, that led to market selloffs including the May 2015 top that Keystone calls the last legitimate top in the stock market. A dipsy-doodle occurs at the end of last year and here we are again.

Libor has no where to go but move higher from here. It may bounce sideways but it is already at its all-time record low. When it goes up it will be a hook pattern and......  What will happen?  This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

XLF Financials ETF Daily Chart; W-Pattern Bottom; Potential Island Reversal

That XLF chart has an abstract flavor and essence. Jackson Pollock got nothing on Keystone. That blue W-pattern bottom is interesting. It is a very nice bottom worthy of a whistle. W's are one of the most powerful bullish patterns in trading. If you are a novice trader, you can spend time looking through daily charts looking for W's. Keystone knew an options trader that only did that for many years. When the W forms below the 50 or 200-day MA, it is even more powerful and when the W forms completely below both moving averages, it is typically a rocket ship ready to explode higher. 

The blue W in the XLF daily chart above has the 50 and 200 slicing through it but you can get the vibe that better than one-half the pattern is below the moving averages. Therefore, you know price has potential to rally strongly. Plus, the banks were receiving negative press at the time and not in good favor (analysts are always wrong at the turns). The green lines show the indicators sloping higher, positively sloped, but it is not possie d because the XLF price did not make a lower low at Halloween.

Keystone went trick or treating as himself on Halloween and the neighbor said take your mask off, then the other neighbor said you're too old to be Halloweenin'; he went home and all that was in the pillow case was a lump of coal. If XLF would have made a lower low in price that would have set up positive divergence and then you knew a rocket ride was coming but with all indicators sloping up, and price almost making a lower low, you knew something positive was cooking.

The bottom of the W is 23.0 and top is 25.5 so the difference is 2.5 so the upside target is 28 if price breaks above 25.5. Whoosh. A huge gap-up occurs on happy bank talk and 28 is easily attained. The gap-up places price on an island shown in the sandy orange color. XLF is laying on the beach all day hoping people buy. There is a coconut tree on the island to keep XLF company. If price begins dropping and falls to 26.5, XLF may immediately collapse to 25.5 and then drop lower (falling back down through the gap). This would be called an island reversal pattern.

XLF may like it on the island. It may come down to test the shoreline (top of gap) and then decide it wants to stay there and enjoy the coconut tree longer. The other outcome is that price would fail at 26.5 and simply move lower down through the gap filling the gap. The island reversals are more likely if price makes several touches of the shore line before falling through so watch to see if that happens going forward. The above is a cheesy island pattern but it highlights the importance of that gap. Price will visit that gap again as per the above scenarios.

The red rising wedge, overbot conditions, and universal neggie d across all indicators creates the spankdown off the top. Bring up the XLF 2-hour chart and you can get a better look at that top. On the 2-hour you can see the smack down, the downward-sloping channel, and then the falling wedge and possie d starting to form over the last couple days. The 2-hour chart hints at one more move lower to test the low from 2 days ago and XLF is negative in the pre-market with S&P futures off -30.

The indicators are weak and bleak wanting lower lows in price on a daily basis, however, the stochastics are oversold and the histo is possie d so they will conspire with the buoyancy on the 2-hour to probably create a little lift for a few hours, or day, but then price will likely roll over again.

The Keybot the Quant algorithm is short and tracking XLF 29.11 as a critical bull/bear line in the sand. Lo and behold, the 50-day MA is 19.10 and price bounced from there during the hump day selloff. Obviously, XLF 29.10-29.11 is for all the marbles.

As stocks sell off this morning, watch XLF. If it drops below 29.10, the stock market is in trouble and the selling will continue going forward. If the market sells off but the XLF 29.10 support holds and XLF becomes buoyant, you will see the broad stock market rally as well. It is all on the banks shoulders although XLF is also a mix of insurance companies and other thieves like that.

XLF probably tests the 29.10 support and likely finds buoyancy for a few hours perhaps into the weekend. However, this will probably not last long and the XLF will roll over again due to the weak and bleak chart indicators above on the daily basis. The XLF weekly chart topped out with neggie d as well which is a bad sign going forward. Ditto the monthly chart. XLF does not look good going forward on any timing basis except for the hourly chart today. If a little bit of buoyancy does show up and you are in XLF long that would be a good time to exit stage right. Keystone does not hold any position in XLF long or short and is not playing in the bank arena currently.

This chart is important because that XLF 29.10-29.11 tells you which way the stock market is headed. In the pre-market, XLF is down -0.6% to 29.35. Bears need another 25 cents to create market carnage. Bulls are puffing-out their chests laughing at bears saying they don't have enough strength to push XLF lower. Who will win today? This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 9:40 AM EST: XLF slips to 29.23 the LOD. Bulls are singing Hang On Sloopy, Sloopy Hang On. SPX 3744 down -1.2%. VIX 33.55. This is for all the marbles. Watch XLF 29.08-29.11. This tells you who wins going forward.

Note Added 9:49 AM EST: XLF is at 29.31 with LOD at 29.22. Bears need to jab down through 29.22 so they can set their sights on that 29.10-ish failure level. XLF should make a second pulse lower now and this will likely tell you how the whole day goes. SPX 3758.

Note Added 10:43 AM EST: XLF is at 29.34 with LOD at 29.22. Bulls push higher to 29.55 but price slumps over. SPX 3764. VIX 30.22. The cat and mouse game continues. Stocks will ride a Highway to Hell if XLF falls through 29.22 then 29.10-ish. Bears bring it down to 29.29 but that does not cut the mustard. The longer the bears fail at pushing financials lower, the higher likelihood that stocks will become buoyant.

Note Added 10:53 AM EST: SPX 3765. VIX 30.56. XLF 29.37. It looks like the bears don't want it. Do you want it or don't you, bears? It's  there on a silver platter. All you have to do is go down through XLF 29.10.

Note Added 12:15 PM EST: XLF 29.09. Goodnight Irene, Irene goodnight.

Note Added 2:27 PM EST: SPX 3717. VIX 33.90. XLF 29.04. Check that out. Do you see the back kiss? XLF comes back up to 29.10 testing resistance, that was support this morning, and price is spanked back down, hovering at 29.04 now. A backkiss failure like that is typically extremely bad news. Willie usually shows up to tell you to turn out the lights, the party is over. Look at that. XLF 29.03.... 29.02 ....... 29.00  ..... high drama....

GLOBAL CORONAVIRUS (COVID-19) CASES EXCEED 100 MILLION

GLOBAL CORONAVIRUS (COVID-19) CASES EXCEED 100 MILLION. At last count, over 100.3 million. Covid went from zero cases to 1 million in only one year. The sad part is the trajectory of the chart is not moving sideways (it will never move down since it is a cumulative chart; you want to see the chart go dead flat) instead the trend is up.

2.15 million global citizens are dead from the China Flu (2.1% of the cases; if you get covid anywhere around the world, on average, you have a 1 in 50 chance of dying). 72.3 million people have recovered (72% of the cases; if you get covid anywhere around the world, on average, you have a 3 in 4 chance of recovering in a reasonable time). 

Once the world recovers from this once-in-a-century pandemic, all nations can band together and seek reparations off China for their dastardly deed. After one year, the WHO (not the great rock band but instead the health organization with the questionable motives), that was complicit with China early-on in the pandemic which screwed all other nations on earth, is finally allowed into Wuhan to investigate the origins of the pandemic. What a joke that is. Do not expect any revelations from the phony dog and pony show.

The filthy communists (CCP) have been lying the whole time about covid and dirtbag Dictator Xi spews more propaganda at the virtual Davos World Economic Forum. The WEF, WHO and CCP need a bigger bed as they comingle, intertwine and consummate their sick carnal relationships on red satin sheets.

Note: Chart is found at the Worldometer site and annotated by Keystone.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

Keystone's proprietary trading algorithm, Keybot the Quant, flips to the bear side this morning at SPX 3812. Volatility spiked but the Federal Reserve put on its jackboots and is now holding Uncle Vix down by the neck allowing stocks to become buoyant again. The Fed always performs the bidding of the wealthy elite class.

Bears need VIX above 24.64 if they want to create market carnage. VIX is at 24.09 in the bull camp so the bulls are feeling comfortable today. If VIX moves back above 24.64, the wheels will fall off the stock market. All you have to watch is VIX 24.64; it tells you everything you need to know about the stock market direction ahead.

TNX 10-Year US Treasury Note Yield Weekly Chart; Overbot Yields (Oversold Note Prices); Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence Developing; Upper Band Violation

There is lots of talk about inflation nowadays. The Federal Reserve has been promising inflation since March 2009 when QE1 started but the jury remains out on the Fed's sick Keynesian financial experiment.  After 12 years, the wealthy class is filthy rich and the huddled masses are screwed. Let the class war begin.

The TNX is the 10-year yield on the US Treasury note like UST10Y and other tickers. The 30+ year bond rally had been trying to stabilize and finally find a bottom a year ago but that is when the bottom fell out with the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. You can see in the February-March period last year how yields fell out of bed. Stocks were crashing so traders ran into Treasuries for perceived safety. Bond and note prices rise on this sudden demand sending yields dramatically lower. This excitement may repeat.

The purple arrows show the tight band squeeze that told you something big was at the doorstep. Bloop, the move is down during the covid crash. Stocks plummet, yields collapse. Yields bump around the bottom last year not doing much of anything. The Fed and Congress flooded the US and world with easy money to send stocks higher. Yield makes a cheesy bottom at the green arrow.

Late last summer going into Labor Day, yield drops but does not produce a matching or lower yield than March. Therefore, positive divergence cannot exist by definition. The green lines for the indicators are all sloping higher, long and strong, but it was not official possie d since yield did not make a lower low. Nonetheless, the chart tells you last August that you can no longer keep the TNX beach ball under water. It is all fueled-up with strong indicators as yield remains soggy. Yield begins the move higher (investors and traders selling off notes and bonds) from August to present.

Now, the stochastics are overbot. The word overbot with notes and bonds has a different meaning than a stock chart so do not get confused. Overbot yields means the note price is oversold. Oversold yields like March 2020 and August 2020, are overbot prices. Yields are topping-out right now so in other words the note-selling is coming near an end. Yields will stop moving higher over or within the next couple weeks. This gels with the overall short-term market expectations where US dollar continues higher, stocks tank, gold drops, and yields will drop.

The red lines show neggie d across all indicators as yield makes a new high, however, the MACD remains long and strong and wants to see one more matching or higher high in yield after the pullback occurs for a few days or week due to the neggie d with the other indicators. Thus, yields are either sent lower right away and they trend lower for a few weeks, or, yields drift lower this week, for a few days or so, but then next week will rise again to match the current yield values (then die). At that time, the MACD line should be neggie d and the top would be in (a simple jog move down for a week then up for a week).

Yield has tagged the upper band so the middle band at 0.86% and lower band at 0.60% is on the table. So the forecast would be for the 10-year yield to top out now or over the coming days. When the candlestick for the week begins printing today, simply check the MACD line to see if it goes neggie d, if so, the top on the weekly basis is now. If not, it will top out in a few more days. That would begin a multi-week down move in yields which again, would gel perfectly with the stock market selling off. Folks will be panicking dumping stocks and a lot of that money will run to the perceived safety of Treasuries sending note and bond prices higher, yields lower. The 10-year yield is at 1.0666%.

The TNX monthly chart bottomed with the weekly chart in the late summer last year. The  monthly chart shows long and strong indicators as yield moves higher so higher yields would  be expected in the monthly time frame. Thus, marry the weekly and monthly time frames and the 10-year yield will top out anytime over coming week or two, then yield moves lower for a multi-week drop, after that, possie d will set up on the weekly and a move higher will begin for yield in the weekly time frame and it will have legs for a few months higher (say yields drop, as stocks sell off, into February/March, and then yield moves higher after that for a few months).

TBT is the ETF play that mimics the 10-year yield so that would be a short for the weeks ahead and TLT is the ETF that would be a long play following the above analysis. Note the MACD remaining weak and bleak on the TLT weekly so it probably needs a week or so to bottom on the weekly basis. Keystone does not own either now but will perhaps buy TLT this week or next week. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

NYHL NYSE New Highs-New Lows Weekly Chart

The NYHL keeps printing lots of new highs on the fiscal (Congress) and monetary (Fed) stimulus promises and vaccine hype. The Fed is on tap this week with a presser on Wednesday afternoon. Pope Powell is going to try to sneak through this week unnoticed but it will likely not play out that way.

Stocks are typically bullish (80% of the time) the day or two in front of a Fed meeting so the professional traders are frontrunning this expected bullish bent. S&P futures are up +13. VIX 22.43. The blue fractal may repeat. We will not have to wait long to find out. The NYHL has remained elevated a very long time; the behavior is atypical. It occurred late 2019 into early 2020 and whoosh. That drop was more technical in nature although coronavirus (COVID-19) was blamed. The pandemic was definitely a catalyst but regardless of the virus, that same type of drop and outcome was expected. Of course the Fed and Congress stepped in with record-setting stimulus to pump stocks to new record highs again rewarding the wealthy elite class.

A year goes by, people are sick and die, the country asks why, blame it on the last guy, look up, do you see the darkness in the sky? The orange circle is the peak where new highs were off the charts that week and only the weakest of the weak stocks made new lows. In the prior fractal, the big red whoosh downwards in the stock market occurred 6 weeks after the top. That 5th week things were dicey as well. Also note the spike high just inside the orange box. Stocks slumped over that next week and then the bottom fell out the week after.

We're there folks. Is it this week when hesitation enters markets and then next week the wheels fall off or maybe stocks become soggy the week of 2/8/21 and then fall apart. Get out of your longs unless it is a position you want to hold for a long-time like 5 years, 10 years and longer, and realize that the position will likely lose 50% of its value (your capital) over the next year or two before things recover again in future years.

Obviously, everyone expects stimulus money to carry the stock market through the year but the stock market is already porked-up making a glutton of itself for 12 years at the Fed's easy money feed trough. The world is awash in liquidity. If you try to force one more bite of easy money candy, or cake, or pie or jelly doughnut into that mouth, it is going to puke its guts  out. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 Weekly Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation; Price Extended

The SPX weekly chart is in its last throes. Note the universal neggie d (red lines) except for that MACD line that wants to see price come back up again after it jogs lower for a week and that top a week or two out will be the top. However, Friday has yet to play out so that last candlestick is in progress. If we get the spankdown beginning tomorrow, the MACD could drop to where it is neggie d and the top would be in on the weekly chart tomorrow. The SPX is set up to move lower for several weeks.

The SPX 2-hour and daily charts are set up with universal neggie d so spankdowns should begin in those time frames. The weekly will oblige since the indicators are also neggie d, sans the MACD. Keep an eye on that MACD. This garbage stock market has needed to correct so when she retreats it may be quite hard. That rising wedge is ugly. Price can be at the bottom of that wedge in quick order.

The SPX prints a new all-time record high at 3861.45 on Thursday, 1/21/21. We now see if it is time for the swan song, and then swan dive. Perhaps a Black Friday? Maybe a Black Monday?  This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Friday Morning, 1/22/21, at 6:34 AM EST: The bulls keep running on Wall Street. BNP Paribas analyst Daniel Morris says stocks are not behaving like prior bubbles. He dispels all market negativity. Morris proclaims that equity markets are "not as frothy as some suggest." He touts the standard line that "there is a lot of money on the sidelines." Morris wants you to go long without hesitation. Are you going to do that? Neuberger Berman's Steven Eisman proclaims, "I'm pretty long about as long as I can be." Everything is all bullish all the time these days. Bloomberg's Tom Keene says he criticizes anyone providing short ideas currently. MS strategist Mike Wilson proclaims "a powerful recovery... small caps will move higher ....markets are healthy and broadening out.... it is a new economic cycle."  Wall Street is a city of bulls, folks. All the bears have left town. Even bulls that opine about stocks pulling back say it will be a great buying opportunity. Every day is a Good-day Sunshine. Trade accordingly.

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation; Price Extended

It's time. The SPX prints matching and higher price highs, a new all-time high at 3861.45, but the chart indicators are all sloping down (negative divergence). The stochastics are overbot agreeable to a pullback. The rising wedge is ominous since the collapse from that bastard may be epic. Price has violated the upper band so the middle band at 3766 and lower band at the 3663 palindrome are on the table. That 3650 area is likely a landing zone over the near term.

It's cooked. Every time a fork is stuck in, however, the Fed, or Congress, or the vaccine makers come along and pull the fork out. This week already had the Yellen Parade, Biden Orgy, Powell Put and Lagarde Lifesaver so they will not provide surprise upbeat news overnight. The vaccines may be hyped overnight to try and save the day. Stocks would be expected to drop for several days forward and this negativity gels with the negativity on the SPX 2-hour chart so these are very powerful negative factors. They will smack hard. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

USD US Dollar Index Daily Chart

Work this chart with the prior dollar chart. DXY, dixie, or USD, the US dollar, is at 90.19. The upper band is violated so the middle band, which is also the 20-day MA, at 90.11, is on the table and the lower band at 89.40. The buck is testing this key support right now. LOD is 90.05 and then a bounce to 90.25 then a slump over to 90.19. All eyes are on the dollar. The euro has not budged much today after Madame Lagard stepped up to the plate.

The positive divergence shoots the buck higher but it hit the top band, at the same time the RSI and histogram soften, neggie d, which helps create the pullback in the daily time frame so USD can test the critical 90.11 support. This is for all the marbles.

If the 90.11 holds, and the dollar begins ascending (look at the long and strong stochatics and money flow telling you there is fuel in the tank), the shorts may panic. We could easily be back into a March 2020 redux situation in the time it takes you to head to the can and return. The top band and 50-day MA at 91.01 are converging on each other and the top rail all at 90.85-ish. Thus, if the purple price resistance at 90.75 gives way, the 90.85-ish confluence is next, then 91.25. If the shorts are panicking, considering everybody and his brother is short the buck, even Aunt Tillie that only started playing the markets last week, the move may be epic. The dollar would spike vertical from here tanking US stocks and gold.

If the USD keeps testing at this critical 90.11 support, and price falls through, and then falls through 89.75, then 89,25 which is for all the marbles on the down side for the buck. Below there, all Hades will break loose and the dollar will collapse like 99.9% of Wall Street believes. This will send stocks and gold higher. Weaker dollar higher stocks and gold. Stronger dollar lower stocks and gold. Which outcome do you think will occur?

There is gas in the bull tank with the MACD and stochastics which hints that in a day or two the buck may be back up at 90.75. You have to simply watch it. Dollar up is terrible for stocks. Dollar up fast in a short-covering rally may crash the US stock market. Dollar weakness will keep the party alive with Janet and Jerome pouring the Fed and Congressional wine into red Solo cups for the drunken traders all night long. The Band plays on. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 1:51 PM EST: DXY 90.18. Euro 1.215. SPX 2853. VIX 21.49. UTIL 860.

Note Added 2:29 PM EST: USD, or DXY, 90.15. SPX 3858. VIX 21.20.

Note Added 6:38 PM EST: The SPX ends at 3853.07 missing a new closing high by only 17 pennies. The new all-time record high at 3861.45 from this morning remains the record all day long. The SPX 2-hour chart is good to go for bears. The nub on the RSI disappeared so it is neggie d. Thus, stocks are expected to drop and the only thing that can save the day is happy talk, or happy news. This week we already had the Yellen Pump, the Biden Orgy, the Powell Put and the Lagarde Love so all of these folks shot their load for a while. The bulls may announce vaccine happy news that would be a possibility to save the day. Other than that, the bears should flex their muscles going forward. The SPX daily chart is neggie d across all indicators so it is good to go for a spankdown on the daily basis. This gels together with the smackdown that should now occur on the 2-hour. SPX weekly chart is neggie d across all indicators except the MACD line, however, this is a weekly candlestick and tomorrow still has to play out. If the SPX retreats a bunch on Friday, that could pull the MACD line down a hair, just enough to make it neggie d, and the top would be in on the weekly basis. If the MACD is still long and strong tomorrow when the week ends, the weekly basis will need another week or two to top out so the daily chart will send stocks down for a few days then back up a few days and that will be the top on the weekly chart. However, this turd of a stock market has needed to collapse for a while so expect the bottom to fall out at anytime. The low put/calls for an unprecedented length of time hints that this is a biggie top occurring in Q1. The top can be sorted out on the monthly chart as time moves along. Considering the universal neggie d on the 2-hour, daily and weekly except for that MACD, it is very likely a selloff begins now (the top was today) and will run for several weeks. USD drops down to 90.08 the dollar is testing the critical 20-day MA at 90.12. This pivot is huge. If the dollar fails here and goes sub 90.12, stocks will rally strongly higher. If the greenback bounces off the 90.12 support and heads higher, the stock market will tank. VIX is at 21.32 below 24.77 so the bears got absolutely nothing. If VIX pops above 24.77, the wheels will fall off the stock market. What do you think? Perhaps a Black Friday tomorrow? Maybe a Black Monday?