The bullish sentiment is rampant these days. Comically, any tiny pullback in stocks is immediately met with more bullishness and a celebration that you could get in long at a slightly better price. People say trading stocks is easy. All you do is buy and watch it go up; it always goes up. As you hear these comments, you think back at the dotcom bubble top with the same sentiment. Also, young folks, say under 40 years old, do not remember bad recessions; they never lived through one, except for covid. That is mind-blowing.
The COVID-19 pandemic was different since it was a forced shutdown of the entire economy by two idiots, Trumpski and Fauci, except for the crony capitalists at the top that control the game. Many, perhaps the majority of stock market participants these days, have not lived through an economic recession. Lots of folks are brainwashed to be positive and optimistic no matter what, like little robots, and that adds to the overall euphoria and excessive bullish optimism. The put/call ratios drop again verifying the party atmosphere. Ditto other sentiment indicators at record bullishness. The Uber driver said he took an entire paycheck and bot SPCX. Aunt Tillie, that was the town librarian, took her entire life savings to the broker in town and he put it in NVDA stock.
But it is crazy times right now. Utilities throw off an ominous signal last week professing doom and gloom at our doorstep and this negativity is ready to take hold for weeks and months to come. Huh? Look at the stock market going to the moon. What is this guy smoking? That is the oddity, folks.
Utes are in a weekly downtrend based on the closing price from 15 weeks ago and this metric for the week ahead is 1157. For the week of 8/17/26, 1112 is the key price to watch. With utilities falling down to 1098, that is painting a rotten picture ahead. Usually, when utes collapse like this, already in a weekly downtrend, and then taking out the 50-week MA at 1124, the trap-door, the stock market will follow lower with utes, or in close order within a few weeks. In addition, the behavior above opens the door to a crash scenario for US stocks going forward.
It is insanity, right? The utilities are a signal telling you to batten down the hatches and brace for bad stuff going forward but no one pays attention or hears the ute siren call because they are too busy partying with the band playing super loud. It is strange times. Something has to give.
UTIL 1157 and UTIL 1124 are key for the week ahead. If price remains below, it forecasts bad stuff ahead for stocks. For the following week, UTIL 1112 and UTIL 1124 will be key. Therefore, watch price as the week ends on 8/14/26. If price remains below 1112, the doom and gloom forecast is on and gaining steam. If price ends the week ahead above 1112, you will know the fix is in with a stick-save and the market masters are propping up utilities to prevent the negativity on tap. These are tricky times. Surrender by Cheap Trick. Live from Budokan! (Japan) Watch your wallet. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Note Added Saturday, 8/15/26: UTIL ends the week at 1112. Of course it does. That is the key bulll/bear line in the sand for next week. If UTIL drops below 1112 and heads lower under 1100, that likely seals the deal for pain and misery for the stock market in the weeks and months ahead. Bulls need to rally utes out of the gate on Monday to keep the stock market party going.
Note Added Hump Day Morning, 8/19/26, at 7:10 AM EST: The utility sector is creating lots of drama at the 1112.15 line in the sand. Price is at 1109 but the battle will continue. Next week, the line in the sand is UTIL 1092.72, call it 1093. Bears will need to keep pushing price lower and end the week below 1093 to continue negativity into next week. If this week ends and price remains above 1093, the bears got buptkis.
Note Added Saturday, 8/22/26: UTIL drops to 1075. Kitty is scared and ran under the desk. Watch 1093 in the week ahead. Be very afraid.
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