The SPX monthly chart posted previously explains the significant stock market top at hand. Since Apple is such a big player in the investment game, what is it doing? Does it confirm the doom and gloom hypothesis or is all that just a bag of wind? The AAPL monthly chart above tells you it is doom and gloom all the way, baby. Kitty saw the Apple chart and ran to hide under the bed.
The AAPL monthly chart has a rising wedge vibe to it (the upward-sloping channel is not parallel). Price prints a matching or higher high this month so the chart indicators can be assessed for potential negative divergence. It has it in spades. There is no upside to all those red lines. The chart is in neggie d across all indicators and the RSI and stochastics are or were overbot agreeable to a pullback. A multi-month slapdown is needed.
The upper band is violated so a move to the middle band at 247 is on the table and also the lower band at 189. Long-time Apple enthusiasts scream, "Blasphemy! How dare you talk about our beloved Apple this way?" It is what it is and the apple is just past its ripeness and starting to become soft and rot. That is a healthy selling volume candlestick for June (for bears).
The ADX shows that the last strong trend for Apple was higher but that petered out over 2 years ago. That means the ADX considers the price increases over the last 2+ years to be fluff. That would put AAPL down to the lower blue line at 190-200 in the months ahead. Is everyone ready for that? Price is extended above its moving averages requiring a mean reversion lower.
The Aroon is an eye opener and what you would expect at a bubble top. The green line shows that 100% of the bulls believe that AAPL stock will go up forever. That is not news; it is expected by all the Apple fanboys. The red line shows that 100% of the Apple bears also believe that AAPL is going up forever. That is funny. There are zero bears in Apple. Everyone is 100% bullish no matter if you are a Wall Street analyst walking around in a $4,000 custom-tailored Armani suit, Joe Sixpack trading stocks in his underwear, the investment committee made up of two dozen blue-haired grannies, or the Uber driver, everyone is 100% all-in on Apple drinking that Apple-flavored Kool-Aid. Human nature can make you laugh out loud sometimes.
The monthly chart is cooked, crispy-fried. If you are long, take your profits and say goodbye to Apple, otherwise you will be the Sapple. It would be smarter to short the Apple rallies going forward if you want to play it at all. Keystone is not in AAPL long or short right now and has not played it for a couple years.
The daily chart is also provided to show a textbook 2-leg bear flag pattern. First, you can see the easy top call as June started due to the neggie d. The spankdown occurs on the daily basis and forms the textbook bear flag. Price drops from 318 to 290 that is a 28-point drop. Then the sideways consolidation occurs creating the flag. Typically, the move is sideways with a slight upward bias. The Apple flag is a bit sharper on the upswing due to the undying enthusiasm by the dip-buyers to own more of their precious stock. My Precious. The flag finishes and the second leg of the down move begins from 303. The projection would be 303-28=275. Bingo. Old guys say bingo a lot. Bingo. Price drops to 275 to satisfy the 2-leg bear flag pattern.
So we know that Apple is cooked in the monthly time frame. A multi-month and perhaps multi-year down move is ahead for the beloved ticker. These were the highest prices you will see for Apple for a long time. On the daily chart, Price makes matching or lower lows for the last couple days so the indicators can be assessed for positive divergence. All the indicators are set up for a possie d bounce (green lines) except for the MACD that wants one more low in price. Apple may bounce today, then down on Tuesday, then from there begin a multi-day rally.
If you bring up the AAPL weekly chart you can see how it is receiving its neggie d spankdown off the top and price hesitates at the 20-wk MA support at 275. No wonder price stopped at this key level. This will provide a chance for buoyancy to occur on the daily basis but the RSI, MACD, histogram, stochastics and money flow on the weekly basis are all weak and bleak wanting to see more lower lows in price on the weekly basis. Apple is looking like a real turd. Get out of it and save yourself if long. AAPL should bounce in the daily time frame say the back half of this week and early July but that will likely be a last chance to get out, and then it will likely drop to the 240-250 area as it continues the long multi-week and multi-month slide lower.
The only caveat in the above analysis, just like the prior SPX monthly chart, is that June still has 2 days remaining before the lines above are cast in concrete and a July candlestick begins. Watch that MACD line to make sure it remains neggie d to confirm the top. It does not make much difference if the MACD can muster up a slight up slope in these two days since the major top would only be delayed by a few weeks. She's cooked folks. Apple is now an apple pie that will be eaten and turn into crumbs. AAPL stockholders are telling Apple Records Don't Let Me Down. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.