Bitcoin enthusiasts are about to have a religious experience. Bitcoin is cooked. Crispy-fried. Look at the chart. Are you blind? That is universal neggie d which will create a spankdown and the start of a multi-week pullback.
Bitcoin placed a record high at 108369 on 12/17/24 and then managed a higher all-time record high at 109340 on 1/20/25. Party time. Everyone is waving around bitcoin with puffed chests. However, now is the time to sell as the chart shows. Price may want to print a closing price at 109K+ in the days ahead but it will likely not change the chart indicators. If the MACD manages to develop a bit of buoyancy again, it would likely only delay the top by a week or two.
The negative divergence is ominous. Price also violated the upper standard deviation band so a move to the middle band at 86K, and rising, is on the table, and also the lower band at 55K and rising sharply. Bitcoin is printing a double-top, or M-Top.
The Aroon green line shows that 96% of the bulls believe bitcoin will go up forever; call it 100%. At the same time, the Aroon red line shows that every bitcoin bear also believes that bitcoin will go up forever. That is hilarious. Even better, the bears are universally convinced that bitcoin will go up forever while the bulls are only 96% convinced. The bitcoin bears believe that the price will go up more than the bitcoin bulls. That is funny stuff obviously telling you that a period of weakness on the weekly basis is ahead.
If you bring up the monthly chart, the MACD remains long and strong with the other indicators neggie d. Thus, bitcoin is topping-out now and will receive a smackdown and develop a weekly downtrend for a few weeks but then it will bottom (look for positive divergence in the future) and come back up for a higher high on the monthly basis.
The way that may play out is down now into mid to late February, then rally again all the way back up perhaps to 120K-130K in March, and that will likely do it for bitcoin on the LT monthly basis. The monthly chart would then be topped-out with neggie d signaling that bitcoin is headed for a long, long, multi-month trip south starting in March/April probably through year-end. For now, bitcoin is cooked on the weekly basis. Simply watch the charts and the neggie d develop. Once she drops, you can call the bottom on the weekly basis in February when positive divergence develops on the weekly chart above.
There is huge support in that 60K-72K range so that would be downside support if the middle band support fails. Keystone is not holding bitcoin long or short or any of the derivatives. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Note Added Sunday, 2/2/25: Bitcoin 99.6K.
Note Added Sunday, 2/2/25, at 5:19 PM EST: Bitcoin is 97.5K, no, check that, 97.2K. Bitcoin is faceplanting and biting the dust, which never tastes good. King Donnie's tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China are resulting in retaliation spooking global markets sending bitcoin south. The Trump trade war begins.
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