SPX S&P 500 Monthly and 2-Hour Charts; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violations

We are at a top right now as per the 2-hour, daily and weekly charts as previously explained. If that is the case, why is the SPX printing another all-time record high at 6053.58 and new all-time closing high at 6047.15 on Monday, 12/2/24? Keystone must be smoking something. Can't he see that every single trader on Wall Street is triple-leveraged long betting the house, car, boat, and the wife's diamond jewelry, on the never-ending upside rally party. He must be blind.

The 2-hour chart above remains at a top. The bulls keep drinking holiday booze and buying any stock with a heartbeat. The neggie d is clearly visible across all indicators. Blow on it and it should fall over. S&P futures are positive as traders pour liquor into their coffee mugs to celebrate the Fed and the year and rally that will create even greater wealth for the people that own stocks. Life is great if you are rich.

The SPX should begin its trek lower despite everyone and his bro calling for a continuous upside move and rally party into the new year. The neggie d on the weekly chart forecasts a multi-week decline which should make December a weak month.

So that is the shorter term; over the next month, the SPX should trend lower. December has started so the monthly chart begins a new candlestick. Price makes a higher high so to the chart indicators can be assessed for negative divergence (to see if the indicators diverge down and away, sloping lower, as price moves higher). The red lines show negative divergence in play wanting stocks to top out now or soon on the longer term monthly basis sans the MACD.

Note that the MACD line squeezes out the higher high on the November election rally after King Donnie Trump, the orange-headed bloviating carnival clown, defeats Cackling Kamala, the confused Marxist/communist. The MACD line is key since it will dictate the timing of the long-term top (monthly basis). There is a lot of month remaining and with a weekly downtrend for stocks expected to take hold, the MACD on the monthly chart will move lower. If it places a lower high, that is negative divergence, and the long-term multi-month top will be in. If December ends and the MACD continues pointing higher, the long-term top will be delayed for 2 months. In this outcome, the rally will try to keep stocks buoyant in December but the rollover then occurs into and through January. After that, stocks will recover all the way back up to the current all-time highs again in February and that will mark the long-term top with the MACD going neggie d.

Thus, stocks are expected to be weak in December trending lower and the MACD behavior on the monthly chart will dictate if the long-term top (many months of downside and perhaps a few years of weak stocks ahead) is occurring this month, or delayed into January/February. Pick your poison. Whichever outcome you choose, time is running out so organize your stock portfolio accordingly. The stock market will likely be vastly different and negative come Valentine's Day when you are kissing and squeezing your honey.

Keybot the Quant, Keystone's proprietary trading robot, remains long the stock market identifying chips and commodities/copper as the only metrics that matter. Very simply, from the quant's status, if SOX remains above 5045.60, stocks go up. If SOX slips below 5045.60 the path to Hades and the multi-week decline for the US stock market should begin in earnest. If the VIX moves above 17.60 (now under 14), stocks will drop a long ways, if not, the bulls will push back and recover. It will be A Long December. Maybe this year will be better than the last? This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.