SPX S&P 500 Monthly and 2-Hour Charts; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violations

We are at a top right now as per the 2-hour, daily and weekly charts as previously explained. If that is the case, why is the SPX printing another all-time record high at 6053.58 and new all-time closing high at 6047.15 on Monday, 12/2/24? Keystone must be smoking something. Can't he see that every single trader on Wall Street is triple-leveraged long betting the house, car, boat, and the wife's diamond jewelry, on the never-ending upside rally party. He must be blind.

The 2-hour chart above remains at a top. The bulls keep drinking holiday booze and buying any stock with a heartbeat. The neggie d is clearly visible across all indicators. Blow on it and it should fall over. S&P futures are positive as traders pour liquor into their coffee mugs to celebrate the Fed and the year and rally that will create even greater wealth for the people that own stocks. Life is great if you are rich.

The SPX should begin its trek lower despite everyone and his bro calling for a continuous upside move and rally party into the new year. The neggie d on the weekly chart forecasts a multi-week decline which should make December a weak month.

So that is the shorter term; over the next month, the SPX should trend lower. December has started so the monthly chart begins a new candlestick. Price makes a higher high so to the chart indicators can be assessed for negative divergence (to see if the indicators diverge down and away, sloping lower, as price moves higher). The red lines show negative divergence in play wanting stocks to top out now or soon on the longer term monthly basis sans the MACD.

Note that the MACD line squeezes out the higher high on the November election rally after King Donnie Trump, the orange-headed bloviating carnival clown, defeats Cackling Kamala, the confused Marxist/communist. The MACD line is key since it will dictate the timing of the long-term top (monthly basis). There is a lot of month remaining and with a weekly downtrend for stocks expected to take hold, the MACD on the monthly chart will move lower. If it places a lower high, that is negative divergence, and the long-term multi-month top will be in. If December ends and the MACD continues pointing higher, the long-term top will be delayed for 2 months. In this outcome, the rally will try to keep stocks buoyant in December but the rollover then occurs into and through January. After that, stocks will recover all the way back up to the current all-time highs again in February and that will mark the long-term top with the MACD going neggie d.

Thus, stocks are expected to be weak in December trending lower and the MACD behavior on the monthly chart will dictate if the long-term top (many months of downside and perhaps a few years of weak stocks ahead) is occurring this month, or delayed into January/February. Pick your poison. Whichever outcome you choose, time is running out so organize your stock portfolio accordingly. The stock market will likely be vastly different and negative come Valentine's Day when you are kissing and squeezing your honey.

Keybot the Quant, Keystone's proprietary trading robot, remains long the stock market identifying chips and commodities/copper as the only metrics that matter. Very simply, from the quant's status, if SOX remains above 5045.60, stocks go up. If SOX slips below 5045.60 the path to Hades and the multi-week decline for the US stock market should begin in earnest. If the VIX moves above 17.60 (now under 14), stocks will drop a long ways, if not, the bulls will push back and recover. It will be A Long December. Maybe this year will be better than the last? This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Wall Street Guru, Mentor, Veteran Trader, Technical and Fundamental Analyst, Money Manager, NYSE Stock Market Official and Historian Arthur "Art" D Cashin Jr Passes at 83

All of Wall Street, and traders across the United States, are sad this evening. Arthur Daniel Cashin Jr, simply known as Art Cashin, passes away at 83 years old. It is a punch to the stomach for anyone that has traded professionally since everyone knows Art. He was one of the very few people worth listening to when his face would pop-up on television typically on CNBC for many years.

Art was a Wall Street guru, mentor to many, a veteran trader that was super sharp and perceptive concerning human behavior, a great technical and fundamental analyst, expert money manager, NYSE stock market official and brilliant historian. He had the ability to explain complex trading concepts in simple, and sometimes humorous, terms. 

Keystone learned a lot from Art's commentaries over the decades. When Art spoke, everyone stopped and listened, like the old E F Hutton commercials. A CNBC article says that he was the Walter Cronkite of Wall Street, to which Art replied, "I think I owe an apology to Walter Cronkite." Art was more like the Mark Twain of Wall Street and he would like that title better, and he deserves it.

When Keystone says, on a day when stocks are moving sideways, that the market is "flatter than a newlywed's souffle," that is an Art saying. One time a novice reporter was on the floor asking Art about the market action (it was a slow, boring summer day with nothing going on). He said, "It is a wax museum." The reporter asks, "Why a wax museum?" Art said, "You look around, and recognize all the faces here, but everyone is standing still and not moving." On Friday's, as the stock market started to close down for the week, he would comment about weekend plans (and doing a little drinking) and proclaim, "The ice cubes don't have a chance."

Art wondered why he was so popular since he was an unassuming  man and never pursued the limelight. That was the reason. Art had charisma and he was not a braggard. Far from it. He could have bragged about being a 'bigtime man on Wall Street, look at me, people listen to me, I am a bigtime guy, you should know my name because I am a big shot'. You never heard Art talk like that not once ever. He was the complete opposite. Talking to Art was like talking to a neighbor standing on the other side of the hedges.

Art's end of year poem will be missed this year. Every year, he would recap the entire year's events at Christmastime with a poem that rhymes to the 'Twas the Night Before Christmas poem. It is guaranteed that Art likely had 80% of it finished so who knows, maybe it will appear this month if the family finds it in his desk drawer.

'Twas the night before Christmas, and all through the house, everyone is sad and quiet, because our dear friend Art has passed. But he would not stand for such melancholy, and instead Art would demand smiles, and that people be jolly.

From one trader to another, Art, rest in peace my friend. Like you always said, the daily stock market story is the saga of the bulls versus the bears. It certainly is, and the saga lives on.

A CNBC article says in lieu of flowers, the family kindly request donations be made to the Arthur D Cashin Jr Memorial Scholarship at Xavier High School. Contributions may be sent to Xavier High School, 30 West 16th Street, New York, NY 10011.