Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

The Keystone Speculator's proprietary trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips to the bear side at SPX 5899 at the opening bell this morning. Volatility, banks, retail stocks and chips sh*t the bed creating the stock market negativity.

Keybot the Quant

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; H&S; Potential Island Reversal or Gap Fill; 20-day MA Resistance at 6024; 50-day MA Support at 5940

Christmas, and Kwanzaa, celebrations are over. The wrapping paper and Boxing Day boxes are in the trash at the curb. Several gifts are not yet functional because the batteries were forgotten, as occurs every holiday. Keystone received a nice sweater, as long as you do not mind one sleeve longer than the other. New Year's Eve is on tap next when the drunks crash on the local highways.

Two trading days remain in 2024 and then Thursday, 1/2/25, is the first day of trading with Baby New Year. King Donnie Trump, the orange-headed bloviating carnival clown, will retake the Oval Office this month that he disgraced on 1/6/21 when he refused to stop the Capitol Hill Riot, and instead cheered as Americans hurt and maimed each other, because the violence fed his sick narcissistic ego. Everyone hopes he has a better legacy than his first term which was a 'whining crybaby sore loser'. King Cry Baby.

Anyhoo, the SPX daily chart is interesting. In early November, price gaps higher from 5775 to 5870 (orange circle) producing a gap big enough to drive a truck through. That is a one hundo instantaneous gain after Donnie won the presidential election. Price has sat on this island at 5870 and above ever since. The island has three mountains and also a palm tree. The price behavior sets the stage for a potential island reversal pattern if price comes down to 5870, and then fails directly back through the gap, down to 5775 in a heartbeat. On the other hand, price may simply trend lower and fill the huge gap on the way down which would be a gap fill and not an island reversal.

The three mountains on the island form a H&S (head and shoulders, no, not the shampoo) pattern. The head is at 6091, neckline at 5870, so that is 221 points difference. Thus, the lower target is 5649 if the neckline fails at 5870. That would get everyone's attention.

Price receives the neggie d spankdown as previously forecasted and explained in early December. Price teased the 5870 support but bounced back up to form that right shoulder. Note how price collapses through both the 20 and 50-day MA's in one fell swoop. Those are key moving averages so price needs to show respect and come back up for a back kiss and test to prove it wants to go lower. Price comes back to the 50, and then falls for a day again, but then catapults higher up through the 50 back up to back test the 20.

The SPX plays at the 20-day MA resistance at 6024 for a couple days, and it holds, and then collapses down to the 50-day MA support at 5940, which holds, and then price recovers during the Friday session to end the week smack-dab in the middle of the 20-day MA overhead resistance and 50-day MA support. Price will exit one of these two MA's, maybe on Monday, and that will tell you the direction forward for a few days and perhaps beyond (if the 5870 fails it is likely lights out for the stock market).

We shall see if the critical 5870 fails before or after the crowd sings "Auld Lang Syne." The bulls will be singing "When the Saints Go Marching In" with Satchmo if the SPX jumps above 6024 while the bears will rejoice and sing "It's a Heartache" to begin the new year if the S&P 500 collapses below the key 5870 heading far lower. Write 5870 on a sticky note and put it on your forehead.

Bonnie is an interesting story. As she prepared her first album, her voice turned raspy and scratchy, and it would be permanent, and she was sad thinking that her singing career was over before it could even start. She released the single anyway and her raspy voice was an instant global success. She immediately catapulted to international fame. Her voice was unique. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Monday, 12/30/24, at 11:46 AM EST: The bulls slip on a banana peel and fall down the cellar steps this morning. The SPX drops to 5869 testing the critical 5870 support, that happened fast, and bounced. There will likely be additional tests of this support. The Fed has its jackboot on the throat of volatility to stop the selling and it succeeds with SPX recovering to 5914. The 50-day MA is 5942 and failed out of the gate so price may want to go up for a back test. For now, the SPX remains on the island.

Note Added Tuesday, 12/31/24, at 2:05 PM EST: The SPX is teasing again on the last day of trading for 2024. The S&P 500 drops to 5870.45 a couple minutes ago and bounces. Price is testing the critical 5870 support which is the edge of the island. Bounce or die. What will happen? Bears will win as long as VIX stays above 17.03 but if VIX drops below 17.03, the bulls will battle back.

META (Facebook) Weekly and Monthly Charts; Rising Wedges; Overbot; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violations; Euphoric Complacency

META, the company with the drooping breasts logo, still called Facebook, that should be called Mombook, is singing its swan song. Isn't it funny how the companies change their names but they are still called the old name? Facebook changes to Meta but everyone calls it Facebook. Google changes to Alphabet but everyone calls it Google. Twitter changes to X but everyone calls it Twitter. Humans are creatures of habit.

Anyhoo, the META weekly and monthly charts are ugly like a lot of the pictures on Facebook. On the weekly chart, price printed the higher high a week ago and it comes with a red rising wedge pattern (bearish) and overbot stochastics agreeable to a pullback on the weekly basis. The red lines for the chart indicators show universal negative divergence across all indicators. She's cooked. Crispy-fried. And everybody and his brother are buying it because the guy on television said so. If you are going long META, you are running into a buzzsaw.

The neggie d spanks price lower last week, and META recovers a couple percent this week, but the chart would be expected to continue lower into a multi-week pullback. There is no reason for price to come up for another record high since all the indicators are now out of gas and cannot provide any more upside fuel. Price violated the upper band so the middle band at 566 is on the table and lower band at 501.

The low in that chart is 586 so call that the bottom rail of the wedge. If that trend line fails, and price drops below 586, it is likely lights out for META and Zuck will be crying in his cafe latte after wind-surfing. The two largest volume weeks over the last 9 months are both sell weeks indicating that the smart money is sneaking out the back door handing shares to the sucka's Joe Sixpack, Carlos Bagholder, the Uber driver, and Carmelita, that hangs out down on Alvarado Street by the Pioneer Chicken stand.

The ADX shows that the strong trend higher in META ended n the first quarter of the year and the move higher ever since is not considered a strong trend. The Aroon shows that the META bulls remain firmly in the bull camp and the META bears also remain fully in the bull camp. That is funny. You know what happens when everyone is bullish, right? The weekly chart is ugly and price would be expected to fall for multiple weeks forward (through January).

The META monthly chart blew Keystone away. It was not expected to be that negative. Right away, the Aroon is a flashing neon light. Every single META bull is convinced that the stock will move higher and higher for months to come (the long-term) and every single META bear also believes that the stock will move higher forever. Pause for laughter. These idiots are going to be disappointed going forward.

The red rising wedge on the monthly chart is bearish. Price violates the upper band so the middle band at 425, and rising sharply, is on the table. The RSI and stochastics are overbot agreeable to a pullback. It is an ugly chart. The red lines show neggie d stating that price has topped-out on the monthly basis except for the MACD line that remains long and strong.

There are only a couple more trading days in the month so the MACD likely does not have time to drop enough to form neggie d but you will have to wait to see how it plays out on Tuesday. Even so, the January candlestick for the monthly chart will likely begin with a matching price high, and if META sells off as the weekly chart dictates, neggie d will form for the MACD on the monthly and the long-term top for META will be in over the coming days. Isn't that something?

If the bulls pump hard to try and send price up for another high and manage to keep the MACD on the monthly long and strong, the top will then occur a month later. She is close and it would not be surprising to see the January monthly chart set up completely negative calling the long-term top for Facebook, er Meta. The ADX on the monthly chart shows the upside remaining in a strong trend but the ADX is a lagging indicator and that strong trend will evaporate if the ADX falls a few points to below 30.

Keystone is not in META long or short right now but obviously the play would be on the short side from here forward for at least a few weeks. If you are a META long holder, and bragging to everyone about the stock, you probably Can't Believe We're Here. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Friday, 12/27/24, at 4:00 PM EST: The session ends the day and week with META at 599.81 pennies shy of 6 hundo. The all-time record high is 637.89 on 12/11/24. CEO Zuckerberg is wearing virtual reality goggles using AI to try and find his car keys.

XLV Healthcare ETF Weekly and Monthly Charts; H&S; Rally on Weekly Basis to Begin but Monthly Chart Remains Bearish for Long-Term

Medic! Medic! XLV needs resuscitation (that's a ten-dollar college word). Doctors give me the cure. Bad Case of Loving You. No pill is gonna cure that ill. Lots of pundits are saying healthcare is a great long trade going forward since it is already beaten down. That is a stupid reason. Why not look at the charts so you will know for sure?

We can look at the weekly spaghetti first. Price is testing the neckline of an H&S (head and shoulders) currently so it is bounce or die time. A failure from the 137 neck, with the head at 156, would target 118 that just so happens to be all that strong price support during 2022 and 2023. A failure of the H&S sending price to Hades will make the television pundits look foolish for touting the healthcare stocks.

The falling green wedge is a bullish pattern. Price would be expected to bounce from it and it did, this week, with XLV at 140 three points above the neckline critical support. The green lines show possie d and want price to rally higher, however, the red lines for the MACD line and the money flow are weak and bleak wanting another low in price on the weekly basis.

Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, that is why we are never invited to any fun parties, price will want to come back down for another look at the neck and the price low from last week (blue line). At that time, say a week or so out, the MACD and money flow will likely be positively diverged and confirm that the bottom is in for XLV on the weekly basis and a rally should begin.

Price has violated the lower band, that is 137 same as the neckline, so the middle band at 148 is on the table. If price rallies that high it may want 152 for a gap fill. The ADX pink box shows that the confirmed strong trend higher for XLV ended 3 months ago. The Aroon indicates that all the bears remain bearish on XLV and about three-quarters of the XLV bulls remain bearish. This is a glaring contrarian indicator. Everyone is loaded up on the bear side of the boat indicating that a relief rally is on tap soon or at any time forward.

So the XLV weekly chart is very constructive and bullish and you can catch the exact bottom in a week or so to ride a multi-week rally higher. However, there are dark clouds and skies waiting for the XLV healthcare ETF on a monthly (long-term) basis.

The weekly chart is pretty but the monthly chart is ugly. The monthly chart is bleeding red which is never a good sign. But how can that be? Keystone just said the XLV is setting up for a rally on a weekly basis. Remember, technical trading is playing multi-dimensional chess where time is the dimension not space. You must play the minute, hourly, daily, weekly, and monthly charts against one another to paint a path forward for price.

On the monthly chart, price prints a clear top that is an easy call. Price makes a higher high, while forming a rising red wedge (bearish), and universal negative divergence across all chart indicators (red lines). Price was set up for a neggie d spanddown on the monthly basis and she receives her spanking now displaying red cheeks. The problem with the monthly chart, for longs, is the weak and bleak chart indicators. The RSI and stochastics are each about to slip below 50% into bear territory on a long-term basis. The MACD just performs a negative cross. The other indicators are weak and bleak wanting to see a lower low in price on the monthly basis. There is no reason for price to come back up to new highs again.

The ADX shows that the last strong trend higher for the rally ended as 2019 started. The Aroon shows that nearly all the XLV bulls remain bullish and almost all the XLV bears also remain bullish. Everyone is bullish on the monthly basis believing that in the long-term XLV will be a lot higher. Idiots. The chart tells you the complete opposite.

Typically, as a weekly chart sets-up with positive divergence, one or two of the indicators on the monthly chart would also show possie d and conspire with the weekly chart to boost price for a multi-week rally. Not this time. The monthly chart is ugly. This hints that the multi-week rally for XLV that should start over the next couple weeks may not be that strong or have much legs higher. If you are playing XLV or healthcare stocks, it would probably be wise to consider ditching the shares as the rally occurs and be nimble, since that multi-week rally may not have much legs before another smackdown occurs because of the long-term negativity in the monthly chart.

Is all that mumbo-jumbo above clear as mud? XLV is set up to bottom over the next couple weeks and then rally a few weeks but then die again due to a horrible monthly chart that wants lower lows in price. A failure of the neck at 137 for the H&S targets 118 and if that fails, well, bend over if you are still holding on to healthcare stocks. You will lose all your money and become a Basket Case at the asylum, and give yourself the creeps. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Friday, 12/27/24, at 4:04 PM EST: The session ends the day and week with XLV at 138.96. The all-time record high is 158.33 on 9/4/24.

SOX Semiconductors Index Weekly Chart; Sideways Symmetrical Triangle; Big Decision On Tap; Bounce or Die

The semiconductors have carried the US stock market higher over the last couple years with AI leading the tech orgy. The chips are on patrol in the Big City making sure stocks stay up forever so the wealthy class can keep enjoying their lives. Like in life, however, a fork in the road appears, and a decision is required, and semi's must choose up or down.

The sideways symmetrical triangle has been forming for the last half year. Price is now squeezed into the apex and has to decide which side it wants to exit. There is no more space available to move sideways. It is time to sh*t or get off the pot as dear old Mom would say. The vertical blue line on the side of the triangle is from 4250 to 5760 eyeballing it. That is a 1510 difference. The vertical blue line inside the triangle is from 4480 to 5625 so that is 1145 difference.

Keystone sometimes prefers to use the vertical line where the second touch of price occurs since the triangle is firmly in place but both numbers can be used to identify ranges. The bull breakout higher would be from 5180 (when price exits the triangle). The bear breakdown lower would be from 4980.

So now we can get mathy. If the bulls can push price above 5180, and it is at 5175 now, price will target 6325 to 6690. The bulls will be throwing confetti, guzzling Fed wine, and singing "Rock and Roll All Night." Tongue action. The upside orgy in chips and the broad stock market will be so obscene that it will make Caligula blush. It will be party time for bulls.

If the bears can push price below 4980, SOX will target 3470 to 3835. Look at that. There's a juicy gap at 3800-ish that will need filling (orange circle). The bears will be slashing the bulls with the blood flowing at Wall and Broad. It will be death and destruction of semiconductors and the broad stock market. We will be on the "Eve of Destruction" like Barry sings. It will be mayhem and that means party time for bears.

There are a couple other gaps down at 2600-2800 so that will be on the docket in the future. It would be a -50% failure in chips over the next year or two.

For now, the markets await the semi decision to bounce from 5180, or die from 4980. What's it gonna be, boy? Well, now what's it gonna be, boy? Bounce, or die? Let me sleep on it, I'll give you an answer in the morning. "Paradise by the Dashboard Light." Choose your poison. Keystone is not holding any chip positions long or short right now.

If you want to trade the chips, you may as well wait for the SOX decision. If she breaks out higher, there is plenty of time to buy the chips. If she collapses, you will be glad you are not a bagholder looking like a jackass, and then you can enter at far lower prices in the future. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Friday, 12/27/24, at 4:13 PM EST: The session ends the day and week with SOX at 5123 remaining inside the symmetrical triangle. SOX has not made the decision on which way to exit the triangle but it knows it must. SOX will think about it this weekend and arrive on Monday with the bounce or die verdict, as the peak in the new moon occurs. Bulls win at 5180 and higher while bears win sub 4980. The decision will knock your socks off.

NDX Nazzy 100 Weekly Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation; Strong Trend Higher Is Lost; Smart Money Jumping Ship

The NDX is not singing Christmas carols instead it is singing its swan song. Everybody and his brother are leveraged long the stock market especially tech stocks. The young tech workers have lots of bucks so they are buying tech stocks. Joe Sixpack heard a guy on television telling him to buy, buy, buy, so that is what he did. Carlos Bagholder said his broker told him to go double-leveraged long in AI stocks and chips. It is funny stuff.

Look at the chart, idiots. Can't any of you read a chart? No, you can't. That is why you are here. The NDX is the top hot tech stocks in the market that have driven the broader stock market to historic record highs this year. The AI hype along with government and Fed largess reward America's wealthy class, that own the stock market, with riches beyond all their dreams. Well, the party is ending and it would be best to leave now before Cousin Larry barfs on your shoes.

The red rising wedge is a bearish chart pattern. Price moves into the apex, like now, and then collapses. As price prints matching or higher highs over the last month, the red lines for the indicators clearly show universal negative divergence across all indicators. She's cooked. The MACD line is trying to squeeze out some remaining fumes that may help price remain buoyant for the last 4 days before 2025 begins, but the neggie d should not be ignored. Divergences are the most powerful force in technical trading.

The stochastics are overbot agreeable to a selloff ahead. The blue circle shows the smart money selling their high-flying tech stocks like gangbusters. Comically, Joe Sixpack and Carlos Bagholder are eager to get in on the hot action and are buying the stocks the institutions are selling. Sucka's. Why would you buy something when the guy is selling it to you and then planning to sneak out the back door?

Price violated the upper standard deviation band so the middle band, that is also the 20-wk MA, at 20363, is on the table, and also the lower band at 18.6K. The pink boxes for the ADX show the strong trend higher in price in 2023, that petered out, then reasserted itself early this year, but petered out bigtime, and even though price grows to the sky, the ADX is screaming that it is not a strong trend higher and caution is required. The rally floats higher on hype.

The Aroon red line shows that 80% of the tech bears are now bullish and buying tech stocks. That is funny. The Aroon green line shows that all the tech bulls remain nearly 100% all-in on the long side. Everyone is on one side of the boat partying. Seriously, are you too stupid to not know what is going to happen going forward on a weekly basis?

The chart is a piece of crap and since it is poised to drop into a multi-week decline, that means the high-flying tech stocks will fall into ta multi-week decline. If you replace NDX with XLK you can see that it is the same chart. XLK is cooked and poised to begin a multi-week decline. Bring up the COMPQ weekly, the Nazzy Comp, it is same-o chart. It is over for tech, folks, on the weekly basis. A ba-dee, a ba-dee, a be-dee, dat's all folks.

The 18200 level is strong price support during the year. From 21800 down to 18.2K is about a -17% drop so a -20% drop-ish in NDX is a reasonable expectation moving forward on a weekly basis.

Keystone is not holding any XLK long or short right now but obviously the play forward would be short. Let's take a look at the daily and hourly charts to see if we can nail down the timing for the top. The XLK daily chart is in neggie d as it prints matching highs for the month. The shorter term charts are not telling much and it is the end of the year goofiness.

The Santa Claus rally is typically the day before Christmas Eve to two days into the new year thus, 12/23/24 through 1/3/25. The bulls, always anxious to buy any dips in this overhyped stock market, jump on the Santa train and are riding his fat arse into the new year, or so they hope. Santa's knees are shaky and may buckle at any moment.

It is not Christmas without Darlene Love belting out "Christmas (Baby Please Come Home)." She always had a powerful voice coming out of that small body. She sang it on Letterman each year starting in 1986. Fantastico. Nowadays, few small girls have that power. Jade Bird comes to mind. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Friday, 12/27/24, at 4:17 PM EST: The session ends the day and week with NDX at 21473 sitting on the 20-day MA S/R at 21504. XLK ends the week at 237.54 sitting on its 20-day MA at 237.64. Yes, XLK must decide to bounce, or die. NDX must also make a bounce or die decision from this key moving average on Monday morning.

The Gift of the Maji

Merry Christmas to all. Happy Hannukah and Kwanza, too. And Boxing Day. It is a great day to read "The Gift of the Maji" or to watch the short 20-minute film. O. Henry was a great writer if you are looking for things to read; his short stories are quick reads that always end in trick, or surprising, endings. Read the story or watch the film with family and friends, especially with your children.

CPC CBOE Put/Call Ratio; Rampant Complacency and Fearlessness in Markets Continues

The party rages on in Party Town. Merry Christmas. For the CPC put/call ratio, the green circles show panic and fear in the stock market the best time to nibble on longs and accumulate stock for a coming rally. Novice traders and others that are losing their shirt will panic and swear they will never own stock again and they want to ditch all their shares; the green circles are when you buy the shares off of those sucka's.

Conversely, the red circles show the stock market tops. The human greed is at fevers pitch. The stock market is a euphoric buying orgy that appears unstoppable. With every long trade you bring on, or add to, you receive a complimentary tulip bulb from Irving Fisher proclaiming that the SPX is at a permanently-high plateau. Of course, when traders are off-the-charts bullish willing to buy stocks at any price, like now, it is a top and there is trouble ahead.

The 1.20-ish level is typically when you know the selling has gone too far and a rally is set to begin. The 0.80-ish level is typically when you know the buying is overly euphoric and traders are too complacent and a selloff is set to begin.

What do you notice in the chart that is glaring? All the red and green circles are consistent except for the two light green circles on the righthand side. Do you know what that means? Yes, people are buying stocks purely due to euphoric greed and rampant complacency. You want the panic and fear to play out so a tradeable bottom is provided but traders are so anxious to buy any tiny pullback, that they rush in throwing money around like confetti. Everyone is worried they are missing out on the big rally forward. It looks and smells a lot like 1999 as we went into the dotcom bubble top. It would be fitting since the AI hype has created the big market rally over the last year like the tech stocks in the late 90's.

You do not want to nibble on long positions until the CPC moves higher at least above September's high. Traders remain too complacent so they will need taught a bigger lesson going forward. Some people you just can't reach, well, that is the way you want it, so that is the way you will get it. Cool Hand Luke. Christmas is for children and the kids like to hear Frosty the Snowman. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Christmas Day, 12/25/24: Merry Christmas. The stock market enjoys a late-session upside orgy on Christmas Eve as the bulls pump the banks and the Fed maintains its jackboot on the neck of volatility. The greed and off-the-charts complacency increases even Santa is triple-leveraged long. Be careful in the minefield. Don't ya know, boy, pressure's gonna drop on you. "Pressure Drop" by Toots and the Maytals.

Note Added Friday, 12/27/24, at 4:23 PM EST: Stocks receive a minor pressure drop today. The SPX drops to 5970.84 but no real damage occurs. The 50-day MA is 5940 and price came down to 5932 to test the support and bounced. The SPX will likely test again so watch the 5932-5940 support level like a hawk since trouble occurs below. The S&P 500 is at 5971 with 2 trading days remaining in 2024 and the new moon peaking for the month on Monday.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish

The Keystone Speculator's trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips to the long side yesterday afternoon at SPX 5961. The stock market joy is due to chips, retail stocks, commodities and volatility all jumping into the bull camp.

Simplifying today, it is a fight between volatility and banks. Bulls win going forward if they can push XLF above 48.60. Bears win and will start to wrestle back control of the stock market if VIX moves above 16.98. One of them will flinch.

Keybot the Quant

Keybot the Quant Remains Bearish

Keystone's trading robot, Keybot the Quant, remains short after a crazy day yesterday. Bears need weaker retail stocks, commodities and utilities to create more stock market carnage. Bulls need stronger chips and banks, and lower volatility, to stop the selling and create market stabilization. Bulls got nothing until they can push the VIX back below 17.15.

Keybot the Quant

NVDA NVIDIA Daily Chart; H&S (Head and Shoulders) Pattern

Here is another NVIDIA chart to supplement the prior chart. A textbook H&S (head and shoulders) pattern, so far.

The 132 is the neckline with the head at 150 to keep the math easy. Price came down to the neck on Friday, testing support, dipping its toe into that negativity, and then deciding to park at 134 to think things over on the weekend. Well, the weekend is over and it is time to sh*t or get off the pot. NVDA must bounce, or die, from 132, and it determines the fate of the artificial intelligence (AI) chip superstar going forward.

The difference between the head and neck, 150 and 132, is 18 points. NVIDIA is down more than -10% off the top in correction territory. Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, that is why we are never invited to parties, the downside target is 114 (132-18) if the 132 neckline gives way.

There are three gap fills needed down below (orange circles). If Emperor Jensen waves another new AI chip in the air this week, that is actually a Cheerio's box spray-painted black, the stock may want to bounce off the neckline and fill the gap above at 140-ish before it then rolls over and dies.

If you are long NVDA stock, and you see 132 fail, you will pucker your buttocks. If you are a pretty darling, and the head and shoulders spanks you, do not worry. You can Put Your Head On My Shoulder. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Monday Evening, 12/16/24: NVDA drops to 130 and decides to sit at 132.00 overnight. Of course it does. NVDA sits on the 132 neckline deciding to bounce or die. NVIDIA sings O Death hoping to avoid the icy hand for another day, trying to jump higher off the 132 neckline knowing that if it fails, and loses 132, it will clutch its chest and collapse to 114.

Note Added Christmas Eve, 12/24/24: NVDA drops to 126.86 and then mounts a come-back rally as traders are anxious to buy the dip. NVDA sits at 139.67 with the 50-day MA S/R at 139.71. What time is it? Of course, it is bounce or die time. The 20-wk MA is at 131.40. The 20-day MA is at 136.96. Looks like the 137-140 line in the sand is important with price sitting inside this range deciding which way to go. If 137 fails, she is likely going down to 131.40 in quick order. Bulls will celebrate the holidays bragging about their NVIDIA stock if price moves above 140 and remains above. If you bring up a weekly chart, you can see that the MACD line, stochastics and money flow are all weak and bleak wanting to see lower lows on the weekly basis going forward. This hints that shorting the rallies will prove beneficial over the next few weeks. Keystone is not holding any NVDA stock long or short right now but if entering, it would be on the short side. The 2-hour and daily charts have a bit more gusto so NVDA may want to remain buoyant and in happy mode into the first of the year when the hammer would be expected to fall to satisfy the weak and negative weekly chart.

Note Added Christmas Day, 12/25/24: NVDA is at 140.22 continuing to decide to bounce or die. Emperor Jensen is opening his Christmas gift and knows that inside is either a lump of coal (price dies) or a brand new AI chip that does not overheat (price bounces). Rip. The wrapping paper is removed and Jensen's eyes are a big as saucers. Look at that! Grandma Got Run Over by a Reindeer.

Note Added Friday, 12/27/24, at 4:30 PM EST: The session ends the day and week with NVDA at 137.01. The 20-day MA support is 137 and the 50-day MA resistance is 140 so the exit from this 137-140 range tells you who wins. The all-time record high is 152.88 on 11/21/24. Emperor Jensen is worried about his overhyped, overheating AI chips and looks for comfort food to ease his stress but all that is available is fruit cake, that looks like it is a few years old.

UTIL Utilities Weekly Chart; Utes in a Weekly Downtrend Forecasting Sogginess for Stocks Ahead; UTIL 949 Determines if the Stock Market will Crash

Keystone shines a flashlight under his chin pointing upwards creating an eerie effect as the utilities are discussed. Utes failed last week opening the door to stock market negativity. Over the last 2 weeks, utilities collapse from 1087 (11/27/24) to 1003, a -8% drop, and no one is talking about it except good ole Keystone sitting on a lawn chair enjoying the scenic Laurel Highlands of Pennsylvania. If UTIL drops to 978, only 26 points away, utilities will be in a correction (down -10% or more).

The closing price 15 weeks ago determines if UTIL is in a weekly uptrend or downtrend and that direction typically portends the direction of stocks. Another key metric is the 50-week MA now at the 949 palindrome.

For the week ahead, UTIL 1028.84 is the bull/bear line in the sand (red circle). UTIL begins the week at 1004 so the bulls have a lot of work to do to push the utes above 1029. It gets worse (for the utility and stock market bulls). UTIL must be above 1054 (purple circle) during Christmas week of 12/23/24. You can see in the chart that the closing prices remain elevated after that and UTIL will need to be above these levels to keep the stock market moving higher in the new year; a formidable task.

UTIL is now in a weekly downtrend forecasting bad things ahead for utes and stocks in general. This week is pivotal. The brown line shows price stopping at support from August and as November started. UTIL must bounce, or die.

The stage is set and the light show begins. If UTIL rallies higher and moves up through 1029 this week, the bigtime euphoric stock market upside orgy will continue higher. UTIL, however, must be above 1054 by Friday at 4 PM EST which means utes must rally 50 points in 5 days to keep the stock market rally going through Christmas.

If stocks sell off, but UTIL does not fall below the 50-wk MA now at 949, the selloff is no biggie. Stocks will lose the typical -3% to -5% on a pullback but then rally again.

If stocks sell off and UTIL loses 949, Katy bar the door. We are going down bigtime. If UTIL loses 949, the US stock market will likely crash.

So there is lots of fun ahead. Bulls need UTIL to rally this week above 1029 and then above 1054 before the week ends. Bears need UTIL to continue lower creating a pall on the stock market and then to drop below 949 that opens Pandora's Box of doom and gloom for stocks. What do you think will happen?

The Sports Team got mugged in California. Bummer. They were just in Da Burgh and did an awesome show at Mr Smalls. No one mugged them here. The Drop. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Monday Evening, 12/16/24: UTIL drops below 1000 down to 995. The 50-week MA, the trap-door for the stock market, is at 950. Houston, we have a problem. Ground control to Major Tom. Put your helmet on. Commencing countdown engines on. Space Oddity.

Note Added Christmas Eve, 12/24/24: UTIL is at 988 after falling to 964.59 on 12/18/24. The 50-week MA is at 952.74 and controls the fate of the US stock market. 

Note Added Friday, 12/27/24, at 4:31 PM EST: The session ends the day and week with UTIL at 987. Utes continue looking ugly. The 50-wk MA, where Armageddon occurs for the US stock market, is at 952, only 35 points away, so the excitement continues.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

Keystone's proprietary trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips to the short side today at SPX 6052. Bears need weaker copper to prove they got game. Bulls need strength in chips, commodities and/or utilities to win back control of the stock market.

Keybot the Quant

The Keystone Speculator's Inflation-Deflation Indicator; Inflation Remains Choppy Sideways for Over 2 Years with the Federal Reserve Not Making Any Progress Lower to the 2% Goal

What a tangled web we weave. A putrid mess. America's crony capitalism system is in its last throes. Keystone's inflation-deflation indicator remains in NEUTRAL territory, not inflationary, and not disinflationary. Inflation is choppy sideways for over 2 years with the Federal Reserve not making any progress lower to their 2% goal (do not confuse Keystone's non-dimensional indicator above with the actual inflation percentages).

Inflation is neutral according to Keystone's indicator and moving sideways but to correlate it to the Federal Reserve, from the Fed's perspective, inflation is moving sideways above the Fed's 2% target. The economy is not as sensitive to changes in rates as it was years, and decades, ago.

How did we get here? How much time do you have? In a nutshell, former President Ronnie Ray-gun started the destruction of America's middle class in the 1980's as high-paying jobs for common Americans were traded for slave labor in Asia and elsewhere. The lower labor costs sent US stocks to the moon over the last decades rewarding the privileged elite class, and upper middle class sycophants that service the wealthy, since they own the stock market, while screwing everyone else. One-half of Americans do not own a single share of stock. The Federal Reserve knows this but does not care because they serve their wealthy money masters.

The loss of middle class jobs were lessened by telling the unwashed masses that they would be able to buy super cheap goods at Walmart. The textile industry was first to fall in the 1970's and 1980's devastating the southern states. The Chinese and other poor folks will work all day for a hotdog and a Coke and America's middle-class cannot compete with the slave labor. No one cared about the Americans that lost their textile jobs as cheaper goods hit the shores. Other industries fell one by one over the last 5 decades including autos, steel, chemicals, tech, etc... No one was there to help them since they did not help others that lost their jobs. The greedy wealthy class sold America's soul and it can no longer be fixed. America's middle class, that was the glue that held the country together, is completely gutted. Now what?

30 million Americans, living on estates and in McMansions, have screwed the other 300 million so what do you think is going to happen going forward? Are you that dumb to not understand that this corrupt crony capitalism game does not end well? The wealthy class will pass on their dough which may keep the game going a bit longer, but even that money will dissipate over time.

Anyhoo, the chart above mainly reflects goods inflation rather than services inflation. For decades this did not matter since both moved in unison. In recent years, however, due to obscene central banker money printing that has made the wealthy rich beyond their wildest dreams, and the disruptions of supply lines due to the pandemic, the goods and services inflations have not been in sync.

The expectation would be for services inflation to roll over and come down to join goods inflation and after many months, the data is starting to hint at this outcome. After all, even when you have dough, how many trips to Europe, and how many $100K Mercedes convertibles do you need?

The oil, coal and natural gas industries are the energy backbone of the United States. President Biden's war on America's energy complex in favor of the glorified gold cart (EV) economy, along with the out of control Congressional spending (fiscal stimulus), and the Fed's money-printing (monetary stimulus), and the Ukraine War, and the ongoing supply disruptions from the pandemic aftermath, create the runaway inflation in 2022.

The 10-year Treasury note 'price' is used for the denominator (bottom number) of The Keystone Speculator Inflation-Deflation Indicator. The 10-year Treasury price is 100.78 with a yield at 4.15% on 12/8/24.

Commodities are in the numerator (top number). The CRB Commodity Index is at 286.34.

CRB/10-Year Price = 286.34/100.78 = 2.84

Above 4.20 = Hyperinflation

Between 3.1 and 4.2 = Inflation

Between 2.5 and 3.1 = Neutral; Inflationists and Deflationists Battle

Between 2.1 and 2.5 = Disinflation

Below 2.1 = Deflation

Interestingly, the indicator is at 2.84 signaling neither inflation or disinflation. The 2.84 number remains the same with the 10-year yield at 4.15% now, and in mid-November when the 10-year yield was at 4.44%. The economy is not as sensitive to changes in rates as it was years, and decades, ago.

The Fed is targeting a 2% inflation rate and since the indicator above is moving choppy sideways for the last 2 years, it can be assumed to be moving sideways above the Fed's 2% inflation target. Keystone's indicator is in a sweet neutral spot but this is viewed as too high inflation from the Fed's perspective.

Granted, the calculation above is focused more on goods inflation rather than services inflation. For many decades, you could track commodities, with the CRB, or GTX, and the goods inflation and deflation dictated the overall economy's direction. As the US politicians screwed America over the last five decades, sending jobs overseas and destroying the middle class so stock prices could move higher on the foreign slave labor, the goods production went to foreign nations while the US focused more on services as the major part of the economy.

The debate between inflationists and deflationists over the last few years has been the discussion of goods versus services inflation. The pundits looking for inflation said goods would inflate and catch-up to the rising services sector while the talking heads preaching deflation said the services inflation would drop to join the goods disinflation and deflation as the economy slumps. All bets were off and both sides ended up being correct as the COVID-19 pandemic hit knocking the world on its arse.

The deflationists were correct in 2019 and 2020. Services inflation drops to become more compatible with the goods deflation. Of course, the China Virus pandemic wiped out the airlines, hotels, travel, restaurants and hospitality and leisure industries. Services are knee-capped falling to the ground joining the goods deflation. Men turned into bush people letting their hair grow wildly outward as they avoided the barber for fear of catching covid.

Then the central banker cavalry arrives March 2020 promising to print money forever. Greenspan, Bernanke and Yellen (former Fed chairs) were already in the basement of the Eccles Building running the printing presses like mad. Helicopter Ben loaded-up his chopper with freshly printed Benjamin's dropping the money from the sky into the investment banker's hands on Wall Street.

President Biden provides way too much stimulus during the pandemic creating a lazy workforce that would rather sit home than work. The staffing shortages are a headache for employers that want to get back to normal but cannot since there are not enough workers to fill positions. Wages rise sending inflation higher. These behaviors, and the obscene amounts of Congressional (fiscal) and Federal Reserve (monetary) stimulus, send inflation to the moon.

When the Fed and Congress tag-teamed in March and April 2020 with trillions in stimulus, billions went into the US stock market pumping it to record highs. A few hundred thousand workers left the workforce either retiring or caring for loved ones after the pandemic, creating a massive labor shortage as the pent-up demand hit in 2021 and 2022.

Rising wages create inflation. The lack of inflation and ongoing persistent deflation for many years was due to the stagnant wage growth. Inflation cannot exist without wage inflation which had not occurred for many years until 2021 and 2022. 

Interestingly, as economic activity slows in the US, and some companies begin layoffs  in 2022, the wages are starting to stagnate again, helping create the current top in inflation since June 2022. This behavior continues into 2025 with wages steady and layoffs in the news. Wages are moderating which will keep inflation at bay.

The inflation in recent years is mainly due to energy, food and rent/utility costs. People notice higher gasoline and food prices more than other price changes. The wealthy class, made super rich by the Fed's money-printing over the last couple decades, continue to spend money which staves-off an overall recession in America, for now.

Inflation in 2022 ran higher to try and match the 2011 highs. Back then, traders were convinced that rates would continue higher but instead the peak was in. Time will tell if the inflation peak in May/June 2022 will hold; so far it has over 2 years later.

Watch the indicator closely to see which side of neutral it favors; once it starts rolling in one direction or the other (up or down), it will likely keep going in that direction. It would not be surprising to see it roll over as oil and commodities retreat and the economy softens. It would be a big deal falling into disinflation again since that would then open the door to deflation. If we start on the path lower to disinflation and deflation, that would likely occur with the US stock market selling off in force a la 2008/2009 and 2022 (crash).

The answer to the inflation-deflation debate is both sides are right and both are wrong since the indicator sits at neutral. The path to disinflation is more likely if the economy sours. People would lose jobs and the stock market would drop. The people propping up the economy right now are the upper middle class and wealthy because the Fed's easy money made them rich beyond their wildest expectations driving stock prices to the moon (at the expense of the rest of society).

America is the land of the have's and have not's. If you are in the elite or upper middle class that own the vast majority of stocks and made out like a bandit from the Fed's money-printing over the last couple decades, you are traveling, taking vacations, getting your hair done by fancy guys with French names, eating out at fine restaurants, and attending fun events. Keep in mind that one-half of Americans do not own a single share of stock. They be the have not's that have experienced zero benefit from the Fed's many years of money-printing. Such is the filthy crony capitalism system.

The Fed has been printing money since the 2008-2009 financial crisis (even since the 2003 crisis) sending stocks to the moon rewarding the bastard wealthy, that created the mess in the first place, with riches beyond their wildest dreams. Isn't that enough to make you puke? These have's need the rest of America to wash their sheets, clean their toilets, cook their vacation meals, style their hair, tailor their clothes, drive them around, carry their bags, and wait on them hand and foot. Such is crony America now unfixable; it is rotted to the core.

Americans are too corrupt and greedy nowadays to do what is right for the nation. Instead, they pledge allegiance to their corrupt and crony political tribes placing that narrative and agenda ahead of what is best for the country. You are watching the collapse of the crony capitalism system. It does not matter who won the presidency in November. King Donnie Trump will not be able to alter America's Destiny.

Inflationists and deflationists battle each day spewing talking points and cherry-picking data to try and bolster their narratives. You can clearly see in the chart above why analysts, and the Fed, are having a hard time at assessing inflation. There are many fits and starts and reversals in direction over the last couple years. Look at how smooth the chart indicator line is in prior years but after the jump into inflation, and now back into a sideways pattern of neutrality, over the last few years, the line is erratic, up, down, with wild moves. A lot of the wild gyrations are pivots from Fed decisions or guidance, or inflation data, as the crony capitalism system sputters along. Up, down, down, up, baby what you want me to do, as Jimmy sings.

There is good news and bad news for Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. The bad news is that the Fed is making zero progress for over 2 years at lowering inflation to their 2% goal. Oh no, well, what is the good news? The good news is that inflation is not trending higher for over 2 years. Inflation is choppy sideways for over 2 years with the boil now coming off the services inflation numbers (even the rich are running out of money they want to spend). Inflation is stuck in a sideways pattern above the Fed's target.

Note Added Wednesday Evening, New Year's Day, at 6:10 PM EST: Keystone's inflation-deflation indicator moves higher to 3.04 exactly at the demarcation line between neutral and inflation. The inflation is increasing not decreasing like the Federal Reserve claims. Commodities are running strongly higher creating the inflation buoyancy. The indicator has been moving sideways through the neutral channel for 2 years and is now hinting that the breakout direction is higher towards higher inflation. If the labor market continues deteriorating, this situation will bring on, well, you know what it is, like the late 1970's, higher inflation and higher unemployment, yes, you receive a gold star for your forehead..... stagflation. Time will tell if the move higher in inflation is sustainable.

The Keystone Speculator's Unemployment Rate Chart; UNITED STATES LABOR RECESSION STARTED 9/8/23 NOW 15 MONTHS ALONG AND COUNTING

THE UNITED STATES LABOR RECESSION STARTED ON 9/8/23 AND IS 15 MONTHS ALONG AND COUNTING. The country also remains in a housing recession and manufacturing recession but an overall US recession continues vacationing with Godot. 2024 is the Year of the Godot Recession (it has not shown-up yet). 

The US economy used to be dominated by the housing and auto sectors. When they go into recession, the whole country would drop into recession. 100 years ago, the railroads ruled the roost. Housing and autos/manufacturing are now second tier players in the recession prediction game. Semiconductors are the new sheriff in town and the chips are now the dominant influence on the stock market and economy. Think about it. Nearly every product you buy nowadays has a chip in it.

Despite the lousy labor, housing and manufacturing industries, the Godot Recession occurs (the recession has not yet arrived). This is because semi's now rule the roost and are the most important metric. The AI hype has only served to bolster this top-spot, king-of-the-hill position. In addition to the chips holding up the markets and economy, so are the wealthy class that have benefited greatly due to the last 15 years of Federal Reserve money-printing.

The top 20% of Americans, the have's, made filthy rich by the Federal Reserve's obscene money-printing that sends asset and stock market prices higher, account for 50% of the consumer spending in the United States nowadays. The other 80% of have-not's account for the other half of spending and they are not buying another vacation home, or yacht, or rare diamond bracelet, or brand new Mercedes convertible.

One-half of Americans do not own one single share of stock and did not make millions effortlessly via the Fed's money-printing. It is crony capitalism filth. Be glad it is in its last throes. The have-not American peons are buying food, diapers, baby formula, and necessities; consumer staples. They wonder how they will pay rent or the mortgage with the car and home insurance rates going through the roof. They are exhausted from working two jobs and watching their savings vanish as they listen to the upper classes brag about their new cars, clothes, jewelry and homes, courtesy of the Fed of course.

So 2024 is a tale of the have's and have-not's. Even the wealthy cannot spend limitless. They only need one $15,000 freezer, $2,000 wine rack and $40,000 cement driveway. After that it is time to kick back and enjoy life.

The unemployment rate increases on Friday, 12/6/24, from 4.1% to 4.2%. The 8/2/24 jobs number was 4.253% rounded up to 4.3% while the 9/6/24 number is 4.221% rounded down to 4.2%. The 10/4/24 number was 4.1%. 

The low prints were a 3.4% rate in February 2023 and May 2023 precursors to the start of the labor recession, and rising unemployment rate, in September 2023. The US unemployment rate is now 0.8% to 0.9% above the lows last year almost one whole percentage point; not good.

The blue line is diverging up and away from the red line which means trouble ahead and it is time to watch your wallet. Over the coming weeks and months, some of you will be called into the boss's office that will tell you to clear your desk drawers, pack up your family pictures, house plant that needs watered, and change for the coffee machine, and get the Hell out. Oh yeah, hand in your badge and door card since you are no longer allowed in the building. Now get out. Beat it.

Young adults under 40 years old will learn a lot about yourselves and the people around you as the country slides into recession. You lived through the pandemic recession but that was an oddball animal in its own right. In an economic recession, you or your significant other will likely lose your job, maybe both of you, so obviously you should already be planning for such an outcome. Also understand, that if you think it is easy to get another job now and you are not worried, you are living a false reality. In a recession, hundreds of other folks will now want the same available job and the guy that told you to call him anytime you wanted to work for him now does not even take your phone calls.

For the next Jobs Report on 1/10/25, the unemployment rate, now at 4.2%, can be 4.0% or higher for the US labor recession to continue. The rate would need to drop to 3.9% or lower to nullify the labor recession indicator after 15-plus months and instead point towards a labor recovery and steadier growth pattern ahead. With the rate at 4.2% now, remaining in an uptrend, it is hard to imagine that a 3.9% print will occur in 4 weeks; it is very unlikely. It is easier to envision the rate remaining above 4% going forward and actually expanding higher back to the 4.3% and higher. The unemployment rate for blacks is up to 6.4% and the U-6 rate increases to 7.8%.

Keystone will educate you a little bit on Management 101. Layoffs. Decades ago, you could get sh*t-canned from your job a few days before Thanksgiving but companies started receiving cold-heart reputations so managers got smarter. Typically, if you need to trim the herd, you will layoff employees before Halloween, October 31, because then you will not get accused of throwing families out into the street during the holidays. Thus, if you are still employed after Halloween, your boss likely plans to keep you around until the new year.

However, January is round two. After the holiday fun is over, many companies begin new budgets in January and guess what? You are persona non grata. You are on the layoff list and get sh*t-canned in mid-January as the company charts the new year forward. Thus, continuing the discussion above, it is more likely that the unemployment rate will move higher since some folks, maybe you, are going to get sh*t-canned from your job a month from now. You will plead with the boss stating that he/she told you last week that the company cannot survive without you. The boss will laugh and say you dumbsh*t, we tell all employees that to get more work out of you; now pack your bags and get out.

The tech and semiconductor stocks are likely topping-out as the initial AI hype wears thin. The rich are still spending money but that should lessen going forward. Holiday spending is important since it is propping-up the economy. The weakness in the chip sector going forward, and the wealthy folks tightening-up their spending, will join the ongoing labor, housing and manufacturing recessions, to finally welcome Godot that will arrive with the overall US recession. Happy New Year.

NVDA NVIDIA Weekly Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation; Price Extended; Strong Weekly Trend Lost

The NVIDIA turd is floating in the bowl so you may as well flush it down. There is a lot of spaghetti in the chart above but let us digest it one bite at a time. The red rising wedge is bearish. Price made higher highs up until a couple weeks ago. The red lines for the chart indicators are all sloping down, negatively diverging away from price that floats higher. She's out of gas. There are not even any fumes remaining to take it higher. NVDA has topped-out on the weekly basis due to the neggie d.

NVDA is at 144.78 threatening to break out higher with everyone waving buy tickets in the air as Father Jensen exalts a new black box above the groupie crowd calling it the latest AI chip (it is actually a Cheerio's box that he spray painted black). Since the neggie d locked into place, on the weekly basis, a couple weeks ago, there is no reason for price to make a higher high again. There is no more fuel in the tank.

The ADX pink box shows that the 2-year strong weekly trend higher is over. The ADX needs to be above 27-29 for a strong trend to be in place and NVIDIA now sings the swan song as the weekly trend higher is guaranteed to not be as strong as it was a few months ago. The Aroon shows the start of the bull run with the positive cross so time will tell if there is a red negative cross coming. The green Aroon line shows that nearly all NVDA bulls continue to be uber bullish, and the red lines shows that two-thirds of the NVDA bears are also bullish. That is funny. Everyone is on one side of the boat partying like its 1999.

Price violated the upper standard deviation band so the middle band at 127 and lower band at one hundo are on the table going forward on the weekly basis. Price is extended above the moving average ribbon so a mean reversion lower is needed. NVDA last crossed the 200-wk MA in late 2022 and it is now at 45.

The blue circles show distribution taking place. It is the smart money selling to the dumb money. As the talking heads on television tell you to buy NVDA with both fists, they are the ones selling (distributing) their shares to you. Do you know what that makes you? The sucka. Pause for laughter. You are the bag-holding sucka.

Keystone is not holding NVDA long or short currently but obviously the play is short. If you bring up the daily chart, that fell in late November due to neggie d, price has no reason to print a higher high at 149-150 or higher. On the 2-hour chart, price is starting to top; the MACD likely needs one more jog move (down-up) to place the top so that is 2 to 4 hours so that would be today or tomorrow before munch time for the top. The US Monthly Jobs Report drops at 8:30 AM EST before the market opens and it will set the overall tone for Friday.

If you own NVDA long, it is time to make a big decision. Gird your loins. You would be smart to take the money and run unless you want to watch many weeks of downside ahead. The only thing that can save the day is happy talk from Emperor Jensen while he waves a new AI chip in the air (the AI hype and earnings extended the prior top). This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Sunday, 12/8/24: NVDA 142.44.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 12/10/24: NVDA 138.81. Chinese regulators (CCP) begin hassling NVIDIA in retaliation for export controls imposed on chips by Sleepy Joe Biden.

Note Added Sunday, 12/15/24: NVDA 134.25. 

BTCUSD Bitcoin 5-Minute Chart; BITCOIN CROSSES ABOVE 100K FIRST TIME EVER ON 12/4/24

Bitcoin crosses above 100,000 for the first time at 9:35 PM EST on 12/4/24. Sound the Seven Trumpets! The HOD (high-of-day) after the major $100K milestone thus far is 104,028.51 carrying through into 12/5/24.

King Donnie Trump, the orange-headed bloviating carnival clown, defeats Cackling Kamala, the confused Marxist/communist on 11/5/24. The orange head will now rule the land of the have's and have-not's for the next four years. Traders figure Donnie will be stock market and asset friendly so November is a big rally month and bitcoin got in on the action.

During the campaign, King Donnie proclaimed that bitcoin 70K was a permanent plateau and would never fall below, until it immediately did upon his statement. Comically, Donnie pulled an Irving Fisher. But that was then, and this is now.

The orange head gets the last laugh with bitcoin above 100K. King Donnie picks Paul Atkins to run the SEC. He is crypto friendly so within hours of the announcement, the bitcoin enthusiasts are buying the digital currency with both fists sending bitcoin above $100K. Adding icing to the bitcoin cake, Pope Powell compares bitcoin to gold. The bitcoin bulls go wild euphorically mortgaging the house to buy more of the crypto gold.

Bitcoin is up almost +50% since the election a month ago and up over +140% this year. Gold is at 2673, silver at 31.91 and USD, the greenback, is at 106.22. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday Evening, 12/5/24, at 7:00 PM EST: King Donnie celebrates bitcoin 100K with a post on his Truth Social platform; "CONGRATULATIONS BITCOINERS!!! $100,000!!! YOU'RE WELCOME!!! Together, we will Make America Great Again!"

Note Added Thursday Evening, 12/5/24, at 9:00 PM EST: King Donnie names venture investor and podcaster David Sacks as the "White House AI & Crypto Czar." Bitcoin had fallen back below 100K today and the Sacks announcement does not create the upside enthusiasm that Atkins did. When Donnie cans the man in a few months, using him as a scapegoat for a problem, the headlines will read, "Sacks sacked."

Note Added Friday Morning, 12/6/24, at 7:35 AM EST: Bitcoin 98,182. 

Note Added Sunday, 12/8/24: Bitcoin had a delayed rally for Sacks with the digital token rising back above 100K but alas, bitcoin slips back below again, now at 99,862.

SPX S&P 500 Monthly and 2-Hour Charts; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violations

We are at a top right now as per the 2-hour, daily and weekly charts as previously explained. If that is the case, why is the SPX printing another all-time record high at 6053.58 and new all-time closing high at 6047.15 on Monday, 12/2/24? Keystone must be smoking something. Can't he see that every single trader on Wall Street is triple-leveraged long betting the house, car, boat, and the wife's diamond jewelry, on the never-ending upside rally party. He must be blind.

The 2-hour chart above remains at a top. The bulls keep drinking holiday booze and buying any stock with a heartbeat. The neggie d is clearly visible across all indicators. Blow on it and it should fall over. S&P futures are positive as traders pour liquor into their coffee mugs to celebrate the Fed and the year and rally that will create even greater wealth for the people that own stocks. Life is great if you are rich.

The SPX should begin its trek lower despite everyone and his bro calling for a continuous upside move and rally party into the new year. The neggie d on the weekly chart forecasts a multi-week decline which should make December a weak month.

So that is the shorter term; over the next month, the SPX should trend lower. December has started so the monthly chart begins a new candlestick. Price makes a higher high so to the chart indicators can be assessed for negative divergence (to see if the indicators diverge down and away, sloping lower, as price moves higher). The red lines show negative divergence in play wanting stocks to top out now or soon on the longer term monthly basis sans the MACD.

Note that the MACD line squeezes out the higher high on the November election rally after King Donnie Trump, the orange-headed bloviating carnival clown, defeats Cackling Kamala, the confused Marxist/communist. The MACD line is key since it will dictate the timing of the long-term top (monthly basis). There is a lot of month remaining and with a weekly downtrend for stocks expected to take hold, the MACD on the monthly chart will move lower. If it places a lower high, that is negative divergence, and the long-term multi-month top will be in. If December ends and the MACD continues pointing higher, the long-term top will be delayed for 2 months. In this outcome, the rally will try to keep stocks buoyant in December but the rollover then occurs into and through January. After that, stocks will recover all the way back up to the current all-time highs again in February and that will mark the long-term top with the MACD going neggie d.

Thus, stocks are expected to be weak in December trending lower and the MACD behavior on the monthly chart will dictate if the long-term top (many months of downside and perhaps a few years of weak stocks ahead) is occurring this month, or delayed into January/February. Pick your poison. Whichever outcome you choose, time is running out so organize your stock portfolio accordingly. The stock market will likely be vastly different and negative come Valentine's Day when you are kissing and squeezing your honey.

Keybot the Quant, Keystone's proprietary trading robot, remains long the stock market identifying chips and commodities/copper as the only metrics that matter. Very simply, from the quant's status, if SOX remains above 5045.60, stocks go up. If SOX slips below 5045.60 the path to Hades and the multi-week decline for the US stock market should begin in earnest. If the VIX moves above 17.60 (now under 14), stocks will drop a long ways, if not, the bulls will push back and recover. It will be A Long December. Maybe this year will be better than the last? This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 12/5/24, at 7:00 AM EST: Pope Powell brings the tablets down from On High yesterday sending stocks to more new record highs. The SPX prints a new all-time high at 6089.84 and new all-time closing high at 6086.49. King Donnie picks a crypto friendly dude for SEC sending bitcoin over $100K. Stocks keep hanging on dancing on the edge of the cliff having a good old time, drunk off the Fed wine, and unafraid of the jagged loose rocks adding to the excitement. Whoopie! Wheeee! Traders will now want to wait for the jobs circus that comes to town tomorrow morning; the jobs numbers drop in 25.5 hours.

Note Added Sunday, 12/8/24: On Friday, 12/6/24, the SPX prints a new all-time record high at 6099.97, only 3 pennies from 6100, and new all-time closing high at 6090.27. The Fed wine is flowing like water. The holiday orgy continues as the bulls tout AI keeping the semiconductors buoyant. 

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 12/10/24: SPX 6052.