V Visa and AXP American Express Weekly Charts; Consumer Spending Driven by America's Wealthy Class

The US consumer is spending and having such a good ole time that Visa and Mastercard stocks are.... a .... well, .. puking for the last 5 months. Say what? Consumer spending is supposed to be rosy. If the consumer is doing so well, spending money supporting the economy, V and MA should be going to the moon. They aren't. Instead they are turds circling the toilet for the last few months.

That does not make sense. Oh, wait. Let's take a look at American Express. When bigshot Keystone walks into a restaurant, everyone bows before the platinum American Express card he waves in the air. The red carpet is rolled out but he feels odd considering he is wearing boots, jeans and a tee shirt. The establishments do not care; he has a platinum card.

American Express is a gauge of the wealthy spending while Visa and Mastercard more reflects everyday spending by everyday folks. There you go. AXP launches from the lower left to the upper right in a joyous orgy move so obscene Caligula would blush. That is the answer. The elite privileged class, and the upper middle class sycophants that service the wealthy, are supporting the economy with their consumer spending (using their American Express cards).

These wealthy folks are filthy rich due to the Federal Reserve's money printing for 15 years. Stocks went through the roof so the wealthy have money to burn feeling groovy from the 'wealth effect'. They are taking trips, dining on fine wine and caviar, and buying expensive jewelry, clothes and cars. It's a tough life, but someone has to do it. Sadly, one-half of the United Stated population, the have-not's, do not own a single share of stock. They were spit on for the last 15 years by the Federal Reserve, while the wealthy, that control America's filthy crony capitalism system, were shoving money into their pockets like there was no tomorrow. It is simple to make money when your thumb is on the scale. Everything is Broken as Bob sings.

The wealthy class, the have's, are supporting the US economy and have put the overall US recession on hold for the last year despite the ongoing recessions in housing, manufacturing and the labor market. It is plain as day in the charts above. The spending by the regular Ma and Pa consumers, the smelly Walmart people, Keystone's peeps, is not supportive of Visa and Mastercard for almost a half-year while the spending by America's wealthy, that became wildly rich from the rigged game they control, sends AXP to the moon.

The Mastercard chart is the same as the Visa chart. The top call in V was easy. Overbot conditions, negative divergence (red lines) and the Tweezer Top (blue circle) smacked price lower on the weekly basis that continues with lower lows and lower highs. Note the tight band squeeze (purple arrows) that forced a big move and price fell from 280 to almost 250.

V is setting up for a bottom on the weekly basis with money flow and stochastics positively diverged (green lines) but you can see the RSI, MACD and histo all remain weak and bleak wanting lower lows in price on the weekly basis. It may bottom in a week or so as long as the entire stock market does not fall off a cliff. The V daily chart is setting up with possie d so it wants the bounce move now in the daily time frame. V and MA may rally for a few days but then roll over and die on the weekly basis again. Simply watch for the possie d to completely set up on the weekly chart and you can play them long.

AXP is a different animal. It looks like the wealthy will have their comeuppance. The AXP weekly chart is set up with neggie d so it should receive a spankdown and the start of a multi-week decline. You would have to check if earnings are on tap for any of these tickers since that will temporarily impact price. Retail stocks will be uber important in the week ahead since it is currently the top market parameter impacting stock market direction according to the Keybot the Quant algorithm.

The AXP daily and 2-hour charts are lining out sideways perhaps favoring a sideways triangle pattern going forward. They are not helpful for forecasting direction.

Keystone does not own any of these tickers long or short. On V, probably best to wait a week or three and watch for the weekly chart to set up with possie d across all indicators and go long for the substantive relief rally. V will probably pop this week but that move higher will likely roll back over as August starts. On AXP, a short position can be started now with the idea of adding to it and nurturing the position for the next month or so.

The charts clearly show that America's wealthy, that use the rigged crony capitalism system to build massive riches, courtesy of the Fed, are the consumers spending money that keeps the US economy floating along. The V chart shows that Joe Sixpack is getting tighter with money because making ends meet gets tougher every month.

Money isn't everything, folks. But the wealthy always say that. Keystone prefers the simple life like Jed. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Monday Morning, 7/29/24, at 6:24 AM EST: Scamazon reports yearnings on Thursday so that release is uber important to gauge the US consumer. How long can America's wealthy, that control the rigged crony capitalism game, keep spending money to prevent a recession? People on the street will tell you that it feels like the country is already in recession. Rich folks are busy looking at their huge stock market gains, courtesy of the Fed, and enjoying the comforting 'wealth effect' vibe. These have's are planning their next travel experience. Perhaps a road trip in the new $100K Mercedes sounds like fun? The have-not's are concerned about their kid's feet having to stay crunched in small shoes until they have enough money to buy a new pair. Welcome to crony America.

Note Added Friday Morning, 8/2/24, at 6:45 AM EST: Amazon reports yearnings and soils the sheets collapsing -9%. The US consumer must be running out of gas. Stocks sold off in force yesterday and the selling cascades around the world. The US Monthly Jobs Report is less than 2 hours away.