Keybot the Quant Remains Bearish

Keystone's trading robot, Keybot the Quant, remains short after a crazy day yesterday. Bears need weaker retail stocks, commodities and utilities to create more stock market carnage. Bulls need stronger chips and banks, and lower volatility, to stop the selling and create market stabilization. Bulls got nothing until they can push the VIX back below 17.15.

Keybot the Quant

NVDA NVIDIA Daily Chart; H&S (Head and Shoulders) Pattern

Here is another NVIDIA chart to supplement the prior chart. A textbook H&S (head and shoulders) pattern, so far.

The 132 is the neckline with the head at 150 to keep the math easy. Price came down to the neck on Friday, testing support, dipping its toe into that negativity, and then deciding to park at 134 to think things over on the weekend. Well, the weekend is over and it is time to sh*t or get off the pot. NVDA must bounce, or die, from 132, and it determines the fate of the artificial intelligence (AI) chip superstar going forward.

The difference between the head and neck, 150 and 132, is 18 points. NVIDIA is down more than -10% off the top in correction territory. Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, that is why we are never invited to parties, the downside target is 114 (132-18) if the 132 neckline gives way.

There are three gap fills needed down below (orange circles). If Emperor Jensen waves another new AI chip in the air this week, that is actually a Cheerio's box spray-painted black, the stock may want to bounce off the neckline and fill the gap above at 140-ish before it then rolls over and dies.

If you are long NVDA stock, and you see 132 fail, you will pucker your buttocks. If you are a pretty darling, and the head and shoulders spanks you, do not worry. You can Put Your Head On My Shoulder. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Monday Evening, 12/16/24: NVDA drops to 130 and decides to sit at 132.00 overnight. Of course it does. NVDA sits on the 132 neckline deciding to bounce or die. NVIDIA sings O Death hoping to avoid the icy hand for another day, trying to jump higher off the 132 neckline knowing that if it fails, and loses 132, it will clutch its chest and collapse to 114.

UTIL Utilities Weekly Chart; Utes in a Weekly Downtrend Forecasting Sogginess for Stocks Ahead; UTIL 949 Determines if the Stock Market will Crash

Keystone shines a flashlight under his chin pointing upwards creating an eerie effect as the utilities are discussed. Utes failed last week opening the door to stock market negativity. Over the last 2 weeks, utilities collapse from 1087 (11/27/24) to 1003, a -8% drop, and no one is talking about it except good ole Keystone sitting on a lawn chair enjoying the scenic Laurel Highlands of Pennsylvania. If UTIL drops to 978, only 26 points away, utilities will be in a correction (down -10% or more).

The closing price 15 weeks ago determines if UTIL is in a weekly uptrend or downtrend and that direction typically portends the direction of stocks. Another key metric is the 50-week MA now at the 949 palindrome.

For the week ahead, UTIL 1028.84 is the bull/bear line in the sand (red circle). UTIL begins the week at 1004 so the bulls have a lot of work to do to push the utes above 1029. It gets worse (for the utility and stock market bulls). UTIL must be above 1054 (purple circle) during Christmas week of 12/23/24. You can see in the chart that the closing prices remain elevated after that and UTIL will need to be above these levels to keep the stock market moving higher in the new year; a formidable task.

UTIL is now in a weekly downtrend forecasting bad things ahead for utes and stocks in general. This week is pivotal. The brown line shows price stopping at support from August and as November started. UTIL must bounce, or die.

The stage is set and the light show begins. If UTIL rallies higher and moves up through 1029 this week, the bigtime euphoric stock market upside orgy will continue higher. UTIL, however, must be above 1054 by Friday at 4 PM EST which means utes must rally 50 points in 5 days to keep the stock market rally going through Christmas.

If stocks sell off, but UTIL does not fall below the 50-wk MA now at 949, the selloff is no biggie. Stocks will lose the typical -3% to -5% on a pullback but then rally again.

If stocks sell off and UTIL loses 949, Katy bar the door. We are going down bigtime. If UTIL loses 949, the US stock market will likely crash.

So there is lots of fun ahead. Bulls need UTIL to rally this week above 1029 and then above 1054 before the week ends. Bears need UTIL to continue lower creating a pall on the stock market and then to drop below 949 that opens Pandora's Box of doom and gloom for stocks. What do you think will happen?

The Sports Team got mugged in California. Bummer. They were just in Da Burgh and did an awesome show at Mr Smalls. No one mugged them here. The Drop. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Monday Evening, 12/16/24: UTIL drops below 1000 down to 995. The 50-week MA, the trap-door for the stock market, is at 950. Houston, we have a problem. Ground control to Major Tom. Put your helmet on. Commencing countdown engines on. Space Oddity.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

Keystone's proprietary trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips to the short side today at SPX 6052. Bears need weaker copper to prove they got game. Bulls need strength in chips, commodities and/or utilities to win back control of the stock market.

Keybot the Quant

The Keystone Speculator's Inflation-Deflation Indicator; Inflation Remains Choppy Sideways for Over 2 Years with the Federal Reserve Not Making Any Progress Lower to the 2% Goal

What a tangled web we weave. A putrid mess. America's crony capitalism system is in its last throes. Keystone's inflation-deflation indicator remains in NEUTRAL territory, not inflationary, and not disinflationary. Inflation is choppy sideways for over 2 years with the Federal Reserve not making any progress lower to their 2% goal (do not confuse Keystone's non-dimensional indicator above with the actual inflation percentages).

Inflation is neutral according to Keystone's indicator and moving sideways but to correlate it to the Federal Reserve, from the Fed's perspective, inflation is moving sideways above the Fed's 2% target. The economy is not as sensitive to changes in rates as it was years, and decades, ago.

How did we get here? How much time do you have? In a nutshell, former President Ronnie Ray-gun started the destruction of America's middle class in the 1980's as high-paying jobs for common Americans were traded for slave labor in Asia and elsewhere. The lower labor costs sent US stocks to the moon over the last decades rewarding the privileged elite class, and upper middle class sycophants that service the wealthy, since they own the stock market, while screwing everyone else. One-half of Americans do not own a single share of stock. The Federal Reserve knows this but does not care because they serve their wealthy money masters.

The loss of middle class jobs were lessened by telling the unwashed masses that they would be able to buy super cheap goods at Walmart. The textile industry was first to fall in the 1970's and 1980's devastating the southern states. The Chinese and other poor folks will work all day for a hotdog and a Coke and America's middle-class cannot compete with the slave labor. No one cared about the Americans that lost their textile jobs as cheaper goods hit the shores. Other industries fell one by one over the last 5 decades including autos, steel, chemicals, tech, etc... No one was there to help them since they did not help others that lost their jobs. The greedy wealthy class sold America's soul and it can no longer be fixed. America's middle class, that was the glue that held the country together, is completely gutted. Now what?

30 million Americans, living on estates and in McMansions, have screwed the other 300 million so what do you think is going to happen going forward? Are you that dumb to not understand that this corrupt crony capitalism game does not end well? The wealthy class will pass on their dough which may keep the game going a bit longer, but even that money will dissipate over time.

Anyhoo, the chart above mainly reflects goods inflation rather than services inflation. For decades this did not matter since both moved in unison. In recent years, however, due to obscene central banker money printing that has made the wealthy rich beyond their wildest dreams, and the disruptions of supply lines due to the pandemic, the goods and services inflations have not been in sync.

The expectation would be for services inflation to roll over and come down to join goods inflation and after many months, the data is starting to hint at this outcome. After all, even when you have dough, how many trips to Europe, and how many $100K Mercedes convertibles do you need?

The oil, coal and natural gas industries are the energy backbone of the United States. President Biden's war on America's energy complex in favor of the glorified gold cart (EV) economy, along with the out of control Congressional spending (fiscal stimulus), and the Fed's money-printing (monetary stimulus), and the Ukraine War, and the ongoing supply disruptions from the pandemic aftermath, create the runaway inflation in 2022.

The 10-year Treasury note 'price' is used for the denominator (bottom number) of The Keystone Speculator Inflation-Deflation Indicator. The 10-year Treasury price is 100.78 with a yield at 4.15% on 12/8/24.

Commodities are in the numerator (top number). The CRB Commodity Index is at 286.34.

CRB/10-Year Price = 286.34/100.78 = 2.84

Above 4.20 = Hyperinflation

Between 3.1 and 4.2 = Inflation

Between 2.5 and 3.1 = Neutral; Inflationists and Deflationists Battle

Between 2.1 and 2.5 = Disinflation

Below 2.1 = Deflation

Interestingly, the indicator is at 2.84 signaling neither inflation or disinflation. The 2.84 number remains the same with the 10-year yield at 4.15% now, and in mid-November when the 10-year yield was at 4.44%. The economy is not as sensitive to changes in rates as it was years, and decades, ago.

The Fed is targeting a 2% inflation rate and since the indicator above is moving choppy sideways for the last 2 years, it can be assumed to be moving sideways above the Fed's 2% inflation target. Keystone's indicator is in a sweet neutral spot but this is viewed as too high inflation from the Fed's perspective.

Granted, the calculation above is focused more on goods inflation rather than services inflation. For many decades, you could track commodities, with the CRB, or GTX, and the goods inflation and deflation dictated the overall economy's direction. As the US politicians screwed America over the last five decades, sending jobs overseas and destroying the middle class so stock prices could move higher on the foreign slave labor, the goods production went to foreign nations while the US focused more on services as the major part of the economy.

The debate between inflationists and deflationists over the last few years has been the discussion of goods versus services inflation. The pundits looking for inflation said goods would inflate and catch-up to the rising services sector while the talking heads preaching deflation said the services inflation would drop to join the goods disinflation and deflation as the economy slumps. All bets were off and both sides ended up being correct as the COVID-19 pandemic hit knocking the world on its arse.

The deflationists were correct in 2019 and 2020. Services inflation drops to become more compatible with the goods deflation. Of course, the China Virus pandemic wiped out the airlines, hotels, travel, restaurants and hospitality and leisure industries. Services are knee-capped falling to the ground joining the goods deflation. Men turned into bush people letting their hair grow wildly outward as they avoided the barber for fear of catching covid.

Then the central banker cavalry arrives March 2020 promising to print money forever. Greenspan, Bernanke and Yellen (former Fed chairs) were already in the basement of the Eccles Building running the printing presses like mad. Helicopter Ben loaded-up his chopper with freshly printed Benjamin's dropping the money from the sky into the investment banker's hands on Wall Street.

President Biden provides way too much stimulus during the pandemic creating a lazy workforce that would rather sit home than work. The staffing shortages are a headache for employers that want to get back to normal but cannot since there are not enough workers to fill positions. Wages rise sending inflation higher. These behaviors, and the obscene amounts of Congressional (fiscal) and Federal Reserve (monetary) stimulus, send inflation to the moon.

When the Fed and Congress tag-teamed in March and April 2020 with trillions in stimulus, billions went into the US stock market pumping it to record highs. A few hundred thousand workers left the workforce either retiring or caring for loved ones after the pandemic, creating a massive labor shortage as the pent-up demand hit in 2021 and 2022.

Rising wages create inflation. The lack of inflation and ongoing persistent deflation for many years was due to the stagnant wage growth. Inflation cannot exist without wage inflation which had not occurred for many years until 2021 and 2022. 

Interestingly, as economic activity slows in the US, and some companies begin layoffs  in 2022, the wages are starting to stagnate again, helping create the current top in inflation since June 2022. This behavior continues into 2025 with wages steady and layoffs in the news. Wages are moderating which will keep inflation at bay.

The inflation in recent years is mainly due to energy, food and rent/utility costs. People notice higher gasoline and food prices more than other price changes. The wealthy class, made super rich by the Fed's money-printing over the last couple decades, continue to spend money which staves-off an overall recession in America, for now.

Inflation in 2022 ran higher to try and match the 2011 highs. Back then, traders were convinced that rates would continue higher but instead the peak was in. Time will tell if the inflation peak in May/June 2022 will hold; so far it has over 2 years later.

Watch the indicator closely to see which side of neutral it favors; once it starts rolling in one direction or the other (up or down), it will likely keep going in that direction. It would not be surprising to see it roll over as oil and commodities retreat and the economy softens. It would be a big deal falling into disinflation again since that would then open the door to deflation. If we start on the path lower to disinflation and deflation, that would likely occur with the US stock market selling off in force a la 2008/2009 and 2022 (crash).

The answer to the inflation-deflation debate is both sides are right and both are wrong since the indicator sits at neutral. The path to disinflation is more likely if the economy sours. People would lose jobs and the stock market would drop. The people propping up the economy right now are the upper middle class and wealthy because the Fed's easy money made them rich beyond their wildest expectations driving stock prices to the moon (at the expense of the rest of society).

America is the land of the have's and have not's. If you are in the elite or upper middle class that own the vast majority of stocks and made out like a bandit from the Fed's money-printing over the last couple decades, you are traveling, taking vacations, getting your hair done by fancy guys with French names, eating out at fine restaurants, and attending fun events. Keep in mind that one-half of Americans do not own a single share of stock. They be the have not's that have experienced zero benefit from the Fed's many years of money-printing. Such is the filthy crony capitalism system.

The Fed has been printing money since the 2008-2009 financial crisis (even since the 2003 crisis) sending stocks to the moon rewarding the bastard wealthy, that created the mess in the first place, with riches beyond their wildest dreams. Isn't that enough to make you puke? These have's need the rest of America to wash their sheets, clean their toilets, cook their vacation meals, style their hair, tailor their clothes, drive them around, carry their bags, and wait on them hand and foot. Such is crony America now unfixable; it is rotted to the core.

Americans are too corrupt and greedy nowadays to do what is right for the nation. Instead, they pledge allegiance to their corrupt and crony political tribes placing that narrative and agenda ahead of what is best for the country. You are watching the collapse of the crony capitalism system. It does not matter who won the presidency in November. King Donnie Trump will not be able to alter America's Destiny.

Inflationists and deflationists battle each day spewing talking points and cherry-picking data to try and bolster their narratives. You can clearly see in the chart above why analysts, and the Fed, are having a hard time at assessing inflation. There are many fits and starts and reversals in direction over the last couple years. Look at how smooth the chart indicator line is in prior years but after the jump into inflation, and now back into a sideways pattern of neutrality, over the last few years, the line is erratic, up, down, with wild moves. A lot of the wild gyrations are pivots from Fed decisions or guidance, or inflation data, as the crony capitalism system sputters along. Up, down, down, up, baby what you want me to do, as Jimmy sings.

There is good news and bad news for Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. The bad news is that the Fed is making zero progress for over 2 years at lowering inflation to their 2% goal. Oh no, well, what is the good news? The good news is that inflation is not trending higher for over 2 years. Inflation is choppy sideways for over 2 years with the boil now coming off the services inflation numbers (even the rich are running out of money they want to spend). Inflation is stuck in a sideways pattern above the Fed's target.

The Keystone Speculator's Unemployment Rate Chart; UNITED STATES LABOR RECESSION STARTED 9/8/23 NOW 15 MONTHS ALONG AND COUNTING

THE UNITED STATES LABOR RECESSION STARTED ON 9/8/23 AND IS 15 MONTHS ALONG AND COUNTING. The country also remains in a housing recession and manufacturing recession but an overall US recession continues vacationing with Godot. 2024 is the Year of the Godot Recession (it has not shown-up yet). 

The US economy used to be dominated by the housing and auto sectors. When they go into recession, the whole country would drop into recession. 100 years ago, the railroads ruled the roost. Housing and autos/manufacturing are now second tier players in the recession prediction game. Semiconductors are the new sheriff in town and the chips are now the dominant influence on the stock market and economy. Think about it. Nearly every product you buy nowadays has a chip in it.

Despite the lousy labor, housing and manufacturing industries, the Godot Recession occurs (the recession has not yet arrived). This is because semi's now rule the roost and are the most important metric. The AI hype has only served to bolster this top-spot, king-of-the-hill position. In addition to the chips holding up the markets and economy, so are the wealthy class that have benefited greatly due to the last 15 years of Federal Reserve money-printing.

The top 20% of Americans, the have's, made filthy rich by the Federal Reserve's obscene money-printing that sends asset and stock market prices higher, account for 50% of the consumer spending in the United States nowadays. The other 80% of have-not's account for the other half of spending and they are not buying another vacation home, or yacht, or rare diamond bracelet, or brand new Mercedes convertible.

One-half of Americans do not own one single share of stock and did not make millions effortlessly via the Fed's money-printing. It is crony capitalism filth. Be glad it is in its last throes. The have-not American peons are buying food, diapers, baby formula, and necessities; consumer staples. They wonder how they will pay rent or the mortgage with the car and home insurance rates going through the roof. They are exhausted from working two jobs and watching their savings vanish as they listen to the upper classes brag about their new cars, clothes, jewelry and homes, courtesy of the Fed of course.

So 2024 is a tale of the have's and have-not's. Even the wealthy cannot spend limitless. They only need one $15,000 freezer, $2,000 wine rack and $40,000 cement driveway. After that it is time to kick back and enjoy life.

The unemployment rate increases on Friday, 12/6/24, from 4.1% to 4.2%. The 8/2/24 jobs number was 4.253% rounded up to 4.3% while the 9/6/24 number is 4.221% rounded down to 4.2%. The 10/4/24 number was 4.1%. 

The low prints were a 3.4% rate in February 2023 and May 2023 precursors to the start of the labor recession, and rising unemployment rate, in September 2023. The US unemployment rate is now 0.8% to 0.9% above the lows last year almost one whole percentage point; not good.

The blue line is diverging up and away from the red line which means trouble ahead and it is time to watch your wallet. Over the coming weeks and months, some of you will be called into the boss's office that will tell you to clear your desk drawers, pack up your family pictures, house plant that needs watered, and change for the coffee machine, and get the Hell out. Oh yeah, hand in your badge and door card since you are no longer allowed in the building. Now get out. Beat it.

Young adults under 40 years old will learn a lot about yourselves and the people around you as the country slides into recession. You lived through the pandemic recession but that was an oddball animal in its own right. In an economic recession, you or your significant other will likely lose your job, maybe both of you, so obviously you should already be planning for such an outcome. Also understand, that if you think it is easy to get another job now and you are not worried, you are living a false reality. In a recession, hundreds of other folks will now want the same available job and the guy that told you to call him anytime you wanted to work for him now does not even take your phone calls.

For the next Jobs Report on 1/10/25, the unemployment rate, now at 4.2%, can be 4.0% or higher for the US labor recession to continue. The rate would need to drop to 3.9% or lower to nullify the labor recession indicator after 15-plus months and instead point towards a labor recovery and steadier growth pattern ahead. With the rate at 4.2% now, remaining in an uptrend, it is hard to imagine that a 3.9% print will occur in 4 weeks; it is very unlikely. It is easier to envision the rate remaining above 4% going forward and actually expanding higher back to the 4.3% and higher. The unemployment rate for blacks is up to 6.4% and the U-6 rate increases to 7.8%.

Keystone will educate you a little bit on Management 101. Layoffs. Decades ago, you could get sh*t-canned from your job a few days before Thanksgiving but companies started receiving cold-heart reputations so managers got smarter. Typically, if you need to trim the herd, you will layoff employees before Halloween, October 31, because then you will not get accused of throwing families out into the street during the holidays. Thus, if you are still employed after Halloween, your boss likely plans to keep you around until the new year.

However, January is round two. After the holiday fun is over, many companies begin new budgets in January and guess what? You are persona non grata. You are on the layoff list and get sh*t-canned in mid-January as the company charts the new year forward. Thus, continuing the discussion above, it is more likely that the unemployment rate will move higher since some folks, maybe you, are going to get sh*t-canned from your job a month from now. You will plead with the boss stating that he/she told you last week that the company cannot survive without you. The boss will laugh and say you dumbsh*t, we tell all employees that to get more work out of you; now pack your bags and get out.

The tech and semiconductor stocks are likely topping-out as the initial AI hype wears thin. The rich are still spending money but that should lessen going forward. Holiday spending is important since it is propping-up the economy. The weakness in the chip sector going forward, and the wealthy folks tightening-up their spending, will join the ongoing labor, housing and manufacturing recessions, to finally welcome Godot that will arrive with the overall US recession. Happy New Year.

NVDA NVIDIA Weekly Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation; Price Extended; Strong Weekly Trend Lost

The NVIDIA turd is floating in the bowl so you may as well flush it down. There is a lot of spaghetti in the chart above but let us digest it one bite at a time. The red rising wedge is bearish. Price made higher highs up until a couple weeks ago. The red lines for the chart indicators are all sloping down, negatively diverging away from price that floats higher. She's out of gas. There are not even any fumes remaining to take it higher. NVDA has topped-out on the weekly basis due to the neggie d.

NVDA is at 144.78 threatening to break out higher with everyone waving buy tickets in the air as Father Jensen exalts a new black box above the groupie crowd calling it the latest AI chip (it is actually a Cheerio's box that he spray painted black). Since the neggie d locked into place, on the weekly basis, a couple weeks ago, there is no reason for price to make a higher high again. There is no more fuel in the tank.

The ADX pink box shows that the 2-year strong weekly trend higher is over. The ADX needs to be above 27-29 for a strong trend to be in place and NVIDIA now sings the swan song as the weekly trend higher is guaranteed to not be as strong as it was a few months ago. The Aroon shows the start of the bull run with the positive cross so time will tell if there is a red negative cross coming. The green Aroon line shows that nearly all NVDA bulls continue to be uber bullish, and the red lines shows that two-thirds of the NVDA bears are also bullish. That is funny. Everyone is on one side of the boat partying like its 1999.

Price violated the upper standard deviation band so the middle band at 127 and lower band at one hundo are on the table going forward on the weekly basis. Price is extended above the moving average ribbon so a mean reversion lower is needed. NVDA last crossed the 200-wk MA in late 2022 and it is now at 45.

The blue circles show distribution taking place. It is the smart money selling to the dumb money. As the talking heads on television tell you to buy NVDA with both fists, they are the ones selling (distributing) their shares to you. Do you know what that makes you? The sucka. Pause for laughter. You are the bag-holding sucka.

Keystone is not holding NVDA long or short currently but obviously the play is short. If you bring up the daily chart, that fell in late November due to neggie d, price has no reason to print a higher high at 149-150 or higher. On the 2-hour chart, price is starting to top; the MACD likely needs one more jog move (down-up) to place the top so that is 2 to 4 hours so that would be today or tomorrow before munch time for the top. The US Monthly Jobs Report drops at 8:30 AM EST before the market opens and it will set the overall tone for Friday.

If you own NVDA long, it is time to make a big decision. Gird your loins. You would be smart to take the money and run unless you want to watch many weeks of downside ahead. The only thing that can save the day is happy talk from Emperor Jensen while he waves a new AI chip in the air (the AI hype and earnings extended the prior top). This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Sunday, 12/8/24: NVDA 142.44.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 12/10/24: NVDA 138.81. Chinese regulators (CCP) begin hassling NVIDIA in retaliation for export controls imposed on chips by Sleepy Joe Biden.

Note Added Sunday, 12/15/24: NVDA 134.25. 

BTCUSD Bitcoin 5-Minute Chart; BITCOIN CROSSES ABOVE 100K FIRST TIME EVER ON 12/4/24

Bitcoin crosses above 100,000 for the first time at 9:35 PM EST on 12/4/24. Sound the Seven Trumpets! The HOD (high-of-day) after the major $100K milestone thus far is 104,028.51 carrying through into 12/5/24.

King Donnie Trump, the orange-headed bloviating carnival clown, defeats Cackling Kamala, the confused Marxist/communist on 11/5/24. The orange head will now rule the land of the have's and have-not's for the next four years. Traders figure Donnie will be stock market and asset friendly so November is a big rally month and bitcoin got in on the action.

During the campaign, King Donnie proclaimed that bitcoin 70K was a permanent plateau and would never fall below, until it immediately did upon his statement. Comically, Donnie pulled an Irving Fisher. But that was then, and this is now.

The orange head gets the last laugh with bitcoin above 100K. King Donnie picks Paul Atkins to run the SEC. He is crypto friendly so within hours of the announcement, the bitcoin enthusiasts are buying the digital currency with both fists sending bitcoin above $100K. Adding icing to the bitcoin cake, Pope Powell compares bitcoin to gold. The bitcoin bulls go wild euphorically mortgaging the house to buy more of the crypto gold.

Bitcoin is up almost +50% since the election a month ago and up over +140% this year. Gold is at 2673, silver at 31.91 and USD, the greenback, is at 106.22. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday Evening, 12/5/24, at 7:00 PM EST: King Donnie celebrates bitcoin 100K with a post on his Truth Social platform; "CONGRATULATIONS BITCOINERS!!! $100,000!!! YOU'RE WELCOME!!! Together, we will Make America Great Again!"

Note Added Thursday Evening, 12/5/24, at 9:00 PM EST: King Donnie names venture investor and podcaster David Sacks as the "White House AI & Crypto Czar." Bitcoin had fallen back below 100K today and the Sacks announcement does not create the upside enthusiasm that Atkins did. When Donnie cans the man in a few months, using him as a scapegoat for a problem, the headlines will read, "Sacks sacked."

Note Added Friday Morning, 12/6/24, at 7:35 AM EST: Bitcoin 98,182. 

Note Added Sunday, 12/8/24: Bitcoin had a delayed rally for Sacks with the digital token rising back above 100K but alas, bitcoin slips back below again, now at 99,862.

SPX S&P 500 Monthly and 2-Hour Charts; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violations

We are at a top right now as per the 2-hour, daily and weekly charts as previously explained. If that is the case, why is the SPX printing another all-time record high at 6053.58 and new all-time closing high at 6047.15 on Monday, 12/2/24? Keystone must be smoking something. Can't he see that every single trader on Wall Street is triple-leveraged long betting the house, car, boat, and the wife's diamond jewelry, on the never-ending upside rally party. He must be blind.

The 2-hour chart above remains at a top. The bulls keep drinking holiday booze and buying any stock with a heartbeat. The neggie d is clearly visible across all indicators. Blow on it and it should fall over. S&P futures are positive as traders pour liquor into their coffee mugs to celebrate the Fed and the year and rally that will create even greater wealth for the people that own stocks. Life is great if you are rich.

The SPX should begin its trek lower despite everyone and his bro calling for a continuous upside move and rally party into the new year. The neggie d on the weekly chart forecasts a multi-week decline which should make December a weak month.

So that is the shorter term; over the next month, the SPX should trend lower. December has started so the monthly chart begins a new candlestick. Price makes a higher high so to the chart indicators can be assessed for negative divergence (to see if the indicators diverge down and away, sloping lower, as price moves higher). The red lines show negative divergence in play wanting stocks to top out now or soon on the longer term monthly basis sans the MACD.

Note that the MACD line squeezes out the higher high on the November election rally after King Donnie Trump, the orange-headed bloviating carnival clown, defeats Cackling Kamala, the confused Marxist/communist. The MACD line is key since it will dictate the timing of the long-term top (monthly basis). There is a lot of month remaining and with a weekly downtrend for stocks expected to take hold, the MACD on the monthly chart will move lower. If it places a lower high, that is negative divergence, and the long-term multi-month top will be in. If December ends and the MACD continues pointing higher, the long-term top will be delayed for 2 months. In this outcome, the rally will try to keep stocks buoyant in December but the rollover then occurs into and through January. After that, stocks will recover all the way back up to the current all-time highs again in February and that will mark the long-term top with the MACD going neggie d.

Thus, stocks are expected to be weak in December trending lower and the MACD behavior on the monthly chart will dictate if the long-term top (many months of downside and perhaps a few years of weak stocks ahead) is occurring this month, or delayed into January/February. Pick your poison. Whichever outcome you choose, time is running out so organize your stock portfolio accordingly. The stock market will likely be vastly different and negative come Valentine's Day when you are kissing and squeezing your honey.

Keybot the Quant, Keystone's proprietary trading robot, remains long the stock market identifying chips and commodities/copper as the only metrics that matter. Very simply, from the quant's status, if SOX remains above 5045.60, stocks go up. If SOX slips below 5045.60 the path to Hades and the multi-week decline for the US stock market should begin in earnest. If the VIX moves above 17.60 (now under 14), stocks will drop a long ways, if not, the bulls will push back and recover. It will be A Long December. Maybe this year will be better than the last? This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 12/5/24, at 7:00 AM EST: Pope Powell brings the tablets down from On High yesterday sending stocks to more new record highs. The SPX prints a new all-time high at 6089.84 and new all-time closing high at 6086.49. King Donnie picks a crypto friendly dude for SEC sending bitcoin over $100K. Stocks keep hanging on dancing on the edge of the cliff having a good old time, drunk off the Fed wine, and unafraid of the jagged loose rocks adding to the excitement. Whoopie! Wheeee! Traders will now want to wait for the jobs circus that comes to town tomorrow morning; the jobs numbers drop in 25.5 hours.

Note Added Sunday, 12/8/24: On Friday, 12/6/24, the SPX prints a new all-time record high at 6099.97, only 3 pennies from 6100, and new all-time closing high at 6090.27. The Fed wine is flowing like water. The holiday orgy continues as the bulls tout AI keeping the semiconductors buoyant. 

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 12/10/24: SPX 6052.

Wall Street Guru, Mentor, Veteran Trader, Technical and Fundamental Analyst, Money Manager, NYSE Stock Market Official and Historian Arthur "Art" D Cashin Jr Passes at 83

All of Wall Street, and traders across the United States, are sad this evening. Arthur Daniel Cashin Jr, simply known as Art Cashin, passes away at 83 years old. It is a punch to the stomach for anyone that has traded professionally since everyone knows Art. He was one of the very few people worth listening to when his face would pop-up on television typically on CNBC for many years.

Art was a Wall Street guru, mentor to many, a veteran trader that was super sharp and perceptive concerning human behavior, a great technical and fundamental analyst, expert money manager, NYSE stock market official and brilliant historian. He had the ability to explain complex trading concepts in simple, and sometimes humorous, terms. 

Keystone learned a lot from Art's commentaries over the decades. When Art spoke, everyone stopped and listened, like the old E F Hutton commercials. A CNBC article says that he was the Walter Cronkite of Wall Street, to which Art replied, "I think I owe an apology to Walter Cronkite." Art was more like the Mark Twain of Wall Street and he would like that title better, and he deserves it.

When Keystone says, on a day when stocks are moving sideways, that the market is "flatter than a newlywed's souffle," that is an Art saying. One time a novice reporter was on the floor asking Art about the market action (it was a slow, boring summer day with nothing going on). He said, "It is a wax museum." The reporter asks, "Why a wax museum?" Art said, "You look around, and recognize all the faces here, but everyone is standing still and not moving." On Friday's, as the stock market started to close down for the week, he would comment about weekend plans (and doing a little drinking) and proclaim, "The ice cubes don't have a chance."

Art wondered why he was so popular since he was an unassuming  man and never pursued the limelight. That was the reason. Art had charisma and he was not a braggard. Far from it. He could have bragged about being a 'bigtime man on Wall Street, look at me, people listen to me, I am a bigtime guy, you should know my name because I am a big shot'. You never heard Art talk like that not once ever. He was the complete opposite. Talking to Art was like talking to a neighbor standing on the other side of the hedges.

Art's end of year poem will be missed this year. Every year, he would recap the entire year's events at Christmastime with a poem that rhymes to the 'Twas the Night Before Christmas poem. It is guaranteed that Art likely had 80% of it finished so who knows, maybe it will appear this month if the family finds it in his desk drawer.

'Twas the night before Christmas, and all through the house, everyone is sad and quiet, because our dear friend Art has passed. But he would not stand for such melancholy, and instead Art would demand smiles, and that people be jolly.

From one trader to another, Art, rest in peace my friend. Like you always said, the daily stock market story is the saga of the bulls versus the bears. It certainly is, and the saga lives on.

A CNBC article says in lieu of flowers, the family kindly request donations be made to the Arthur D Cashin Jr Memorial Scholarship at Xavier High School. Contributions may be sent to Xavier High School, 30 West 16th Street, New York, NY 10011.

The Keystone Speculator's Housing Market Indicator; UNITED STATES IS IN A HOUSING RECESSION FOR 23 MONTHS AND COUNTING

People will say it is different this time, and it never is, but this time it is truly different. Anytime that the housing market dipped into recession, an overall US recession quickly followed, especially with a manufacturing and labor recession also ongoing. Not this time. Decades past, life was simpler. No tech wizardry, just folks going to work each day and then having plenty of leisure time each evening and on weekends. All that mattered was the housing and auto industries. When they went south, the US was in recession. It was simple. Not anymore.

Computer technology arrived on the scene in a big way through the 1980's and 1990's many of us starting with the old amber screens and floppy discs that needed formatted using the DOS program. Screen savers were not a thing yet so you had to make sure the same image did not stay on the coal black screen too long. Chips run computers. Thus, as the railroads opened the door to an economic boon, especially in the Midwest and Western US a century ago, semiconductors, chips for short, fuel the economic path forward for the last 30 years and ahead with NVIDIA's Jensen now waving his advanced AI (Artificial Intelligence) chip in the air.

The US is in a housing recession for 23 months almost 2 solid years, an ongoing manufacturing recession and weakness for the last couple years, and a labor recession that is 14 months along. Housing Starts peaked almost 3 years ago and have dropped to the lowest numbers in 4 years. The downward channel remains in play and conditions are worsening as the red and green lines separate. How could the United States not be in an overall recession? The Godot Recession has not yet arrived despite the weakness in housing, manufacturing and labor. One reason is the tech industry and chips but there is a second reason; the Federal Reserve.

The Fed's money-printing since 2009 is so obscene it would make Caligula blush. It enriches America's wealthy class to stupendous heights while screwing common folks that do not own any stocks. One-half of Americans do not own a single share of stock so the Fed's money-printing did not make any of them filthy rich.

Further, once the COVID-19 pandemic hit,  the Fed fired another huge money bazooka of monetary stimulus, and then Congress stepped in with fiscal stimulus, showering the rich Americans with more free money, manna from heaven. Folks, that dough goes into the stock market driving asset prices bigtime higher and the elite privileged class, and upper middle class sycophants that live in McMansions that service the elite, are the ones that own stocks. It is a great racket if you are rich and part of the club, but 300 million Americans are not part of the Big Club, as the notable scholar George Carlin said. It will never get fixed, folks. Get with the program.

It is enough to make you vomit. Look at the chart above. The housing market takes off higher with the Fed's and Congress's thumbs on the scale. Obviously, capitalism does not exist. Capitalism is only a theoretical concept in business textbooks. America is best described as a 'faux free market crony capitalism system' on its last legs. Human greed destroys everything throughout man's 'civilized' 5,000 year existence. The present day is no different. Greed is more powerful than love, hate or fear, and it always will be.

Anyhoo, the joy in tech and semiconductors, and the enormous wealth effect felt by America's wealthy class, and those upper middle class sycophants that service the filthy rich that want to remain in their McMansions, are keeping the US economy afloat and avoiding an overall recession with their robust spending.

The top 20% wealthy Americans are accounting for about one-half of the spending in the US currently. Say no more. The middle class is gonzo. America's now lower middle class, disabled, homeless, minorities, and working poor do not have a pot to p*ss in working two jobs and still unable to make ends meet. Meanwhile, America's wealthy, in bed with the Federal Reserve, enjoy vast riches due to the enormous stock market gains. They are still spending big money preventing an overall recession while asking why everyone else is so glum? Don't you love the filthy crony capitalism system?

However, even the wealthy stop spending eventually. How many brand new $800,000 McMansions, $90,000 Mercedes convertibles, and $9,000 refrigerators do you need? They are still buying for now as Christmas quickly approaches. And on the chip front, the so-called AI revolution needs to start showing concrete results and cost-savings for companies; so far it remains a lot of hype. What happens when the consumer sales for gadgets go south (since the average American does not have a pot to pee in) and tech companies have less money to spend on developing the new chips and gadgets? Everything slows down of course; it is called a recession.

UTIL Utilities Weekly Chart; Overbot; Negative Divergence; AI Party in Utes Is Over

Sleepy utilities sprang out of bed a year ago and started running crazy higher fueled by the artificial intelligence (AI) orgy. AI will need mountains of electrical power to generate those incorrect answers to questions that are only based on the information that exists on the internet. Greedy humans frantically work towards supplying the power for AI when they did not care about providing electricity to starving communities in underdeveloped nations. Such is life.

Anyhoo, utes got caught up in the AI hype and suddenly everyone wants to dance with the ugly boring girl because her daddy AI has lots of dough. The rally is spectacular from the 765 low in October 2023 to the current record high at 1080; that is a +41% gain in only 13 months.

But, all parties have to come to an end and the cops arrive to take names. Million Miles Away. Price is making matching and higher highs with the AI orgy on full display, however, the red lines show all the chart indicators sloping lower with negative divergence. The top is in on the weekly basis. She does not have anymore fuel in the tank to move higher. The RSI and stochastics are also coming off overbot levels.

The pink box for the ADX shows that utes remain in a strong uptrend on the weekly basis but take a closer look. You can see that as UTIL makes a new record high in price, the strong trend shown by the ADX actually weakens and does not extend higher. The ADX is a lagging, or confirmation tool. Once price begins dropping, utes will be in big trouble when the ADX loses 28-ish since the strong uptrend in utilities will be officially over.

The Aroon top bullish line shows that nearly 100% of the utility bulls continue believing that UTIL will go to the moon and nothing will stop it from rallying higher forever. Comically, the lower bearish line shows that nearly 100% of the bears also believe that utes will go up forever. Everyone has bought into the AI hype lock, stock and barrel. It is a contrarian indicator telling you that everyone is partying on one side of the boat and it is about to capsize. 

Utes are programmed into the Keybot the Quant algorithm. As mentioned many times over the years, you must watch the weekly close for UTIL 15 weeks ago since it dictates if utes are in a weekly uptrend or downtrend. This direction typically tells you the direction of the stock market. There is big trouble ahead if the weekly trend develops into a down trend and then all hope is lost in the stock market if the 50-wk MA fails that is now at 943.

Count 15 candlesticks backwards and you can see the numbers that UTIL must start to beat to keep the US stock market party going. You can look at Yahoo Finance under ^DJU and historical data and simply count down 15 numbers for the weekly data to identify the key lines in the sand, or simply pull the numbers off the chart. You want to use the closing number from 15 weeks ago. For this week, UTIL must stay above 1004 to keep the bull party alive in the stock market.

For next week, the first week of December, the UTIL line in the sand is 1010. Then, for the week of 12/9/24 it is 1021. For the week of 12/16/24 it is 1029 then for the week of 12/23/24, Christmastime, it is 1054. UTIL is at 1066 right now. There will be Hell to pay in the stock market if any of these numbers fail going forward.

The set-up for the utes present a bad omen for the stock market. Keystone is in a dark room holding a flashlight under his chin that points upward over his ugly eerie face as he discusses a dire scenario forward. Poison Heart. The previous charts highlight the top in the SPX right now and stocks are expected to be weak going forward for several weeks. It makes sense since there will be tax-loss selling and other tax stuff occurring over the next couple weeks that typically create soggy equity conditions.

With US stocks expected to drop going forward into December, and UTIL expected to drop, if utes lose the key values mentioned above, especially if UTIL loses the 943-ish area, stocks will likely drop from -10% to -20% or more. There is lots of fun ahead. If utes do not fail any of the levels above, the drop in the US stock market to end the year will be a run of the mill pullback of a few percent.

If you are in utilities on the long side, take your money and head for the exits, otherwise, you will be sliced and diced over the coming weeks. You only want to be short utes going forward due to the neggie d above. Keystone is currently not holding any positions short of long in utilities but will obviously play the short side if so inclined going forward. 

The AI hype has ran its course for now. Traders and investors are going to want to see rock solid examples on how customers justify all the obscene spending on AI chips that will be outdated by the time a company gets around to implementing the garbage. As the economy slips away next year, no one is gong to want to see big spending on AI when folks cannot find jobs and are struggling to survive. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Tuesday Afternoon, 11/26/24, at 5:04 PM EST: UTIL rises to 1080 with a new record high at 1080.22. Traders throw confetti proclaiming that utes, tech and AI are the future with these stocks guaranteed to grow to the sky. The Uber driver said he went 300% long the utilities with his whole paycheck. The doorman sold his car and used the money to buy utility stocks. Everyone agrees that utes will move higher and traders pat each other on the back while waiting for the free, company-provided, buffet. Everyone is in the conga line following each other. What can possibly go wrong?

Note Added Sunday, 12/1/24: UTIL prints a new all-time record high at 1086.52 on 11/27/24 and a new record closing high at 1079.88 on 11/26/24. Traders keep believing in the AI revolution and need for power and utilities as they walk towards the guillotine.

Note Added Sunday, 12/8/24: The UTIL lines in the sand are 1021 for the week ahead, 1029 for the week of 12/16/24, and 1054 for the week of 12/23/24. UTIL is at 1036 and must hold the 1021 for this week, otherwise there will be Hell to pay. The following week, UTIL must stay above 1029 for the bulls to have hope and for Christmas week, UTIL must be above 1054, or there is trouble ahead for stocks. Watch the utes.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 12/10/24: UTIL drops to 1019.35 losing the key 1020.86 line in the sand yesterday. This is a major negative development. 

SPX S&P 500 2-Hour, Daily and Weekly Charts; Negative Divergence (Ugly Charts); Donnie Trump Reelection Rally; All-Time Record High at SPX 6044; Overbot; Potential M-Top; Potential Island Reversal

The cold November Rain is here. It is a dark and dreary time for reflection, as Slash plays a haunting solo (4:15 mark), and thoughts turn to love's lost, and now it is also time for the stock market to receive a negative divergence smackdown. As everyone is drunk as skunks, playing the part of the greater fool, and the SPX prints the all-time record high at 6020.75, the hourly, daily and weekly time frames have topped out with neggie d. She's cooked. Crispy-fried. Stick a fork in it. The party just ran out of booze.

We can start with the 2-hour time frame. The potential M-top, or double-top, is plain as day. King Donnie Trump will reassume his throne and the blue circle shows the rocket launch higher in stocks after the election victory. It should be orange in color instead of blue.

You can see the gap-up from green line to green line and price remains on the island above ever since. There are two mountains on the island, the potential M-top. When the SPX comes down, slapped lower by the neggie d, she will either gap-down back through the same 5783-5864 gap, or simply slide down into the gap and fill the gap as price moves lower. If price falls through the gap, from 5864 down to 5783 and lower in a heartbeat, that will be an island reversal pattern.

The red lines on the 2-hour chart show all the chart indicators sloping lower as price prints the all-time record high; neggie d (price is moving higher but the indicators are telling it hey dummie, you should be dropping now). The upper band is violated so the middle band at 5938 and lower band at 5859 are on the table for the hourly time frame.

On the daily chart, things become more interesting. Again, the red lines clearly show that as price prints the new fantastic, epic, glorious, Gloria, all-time record high, the chart indicators are all out of gas and sloping lower with neggie d so she is topped-out. The doji candlestick hints at a trend change which would be lower. The upper band is at 6088 and price was only 67 points away today so it cannot be discounted. It is unlikely but the only thing that can save these charts is happy news from the Fed or some other event. Happy talk may delay the top for a couple-few days which would place the 6088 in play but this is not expected.

On the daily chart, the ADX shows that the last strong trend was in July, and it was up, but it petered out and died in August. More importantly, the ADX sags lower ever since so the strong trend higher in the SPX in the daily time frame is toast. There is no strong trend higher despite every yahoo and his bro showing up on television telling you to "buy, buy. buy!" These charts say, "sell, sell, sell!"

As you look at the weekly chart, it should make you very afraid if long the market. Hold a tray in front of you because your head will be on that platter soon if you are long. It is an ugly chart. Keystone posted this about 3 weeks or so ago before the election circus. Things needed a little time to settle down.

There are 3 matching or higher price highs over the last 4 weeks with the all-time record high occurring today. Alas, the red lines show universal neggie d across all the chart indicators. There is negative divergence across all chart indicators for all three time frames hourly, daily and weekly. You had better take notice of this Sonny and Girly. To repeat, the weekly chart is extremely ugly and if you are long, you are about to have a religious experience.

There was a high volume week in September (blue circle) but the recent record highs have not occurred on stronger volume. That big volume week corresponds to SPX 5600-5700 so that would be a logical place for price to seek in the weekly time frame. Price violated the upper band so the middle band at 5688 and lower band at 5290 are in play. Did Keystone mention that it was a very ugly chart?

The ADX for the weekly chart shows how a strong trend was in place from February through August. The wine was flowing like water and darts could be thrown at the stock pages to pick winners sine everything was a winner. That party is over. There is no longer a strong trend higher in the weekly time frame; it ended almost 3 months ago.

What does all this mumbo-jumbo mean? Shake it up and Twist and Shout. Work it on out, baby. All of you newbie and inexperienced traders would be wise to follow the conga line to the exits, otherwise, you will be stepped-on.

Now the big question. Thinking longer term, what does the monthly chart say about the future? Keystone can take a look. Let's see. The chart indicators are neggie d except for the MACD a tiny smidge higher and the RSI also trying to sneak higher over the last 3 months. She's topping-out but the Donnie rally provided a touch more juice to extend the long-term top out for a month or two. This month is not over yet and those two indicators can still print lower which means devastation for the US stock market since the long-term top would be in now. If the monthly chart can hold on, it may not top out until January.

As provided above, the SPX is toast in the hourly, daily and weekly time frames so a top is occurring now, in real-time. Stocks will remain weak with fits and starts, heading lower for several weeks, receiving the neggie d spankdown on the weekly basis, into that 5600-5700 area and maybe far lower. The monthly chart is key since it may need one more high where price would then have to rally again, say, in late December or January back up to these current highs, and that would likely place the long term top for the SPX (for months, a couple years or more, even several years). That top occurs either over the coming days as November ends, or it may occur as the new year begins, the charts will tell you.

Remember, if she falls fast and hard which is on the table right now in real-time, the monthly chart may join the club creating the long-term top at the same time that will hold for a couple years or more. Are you ready for some fun? You need to sell longs, or bring on shorts, or buy protection, or all three. Keystone is sharpening the blades and he is not very nice once the selling begins. Nothing lasts forever, not even cold November rain. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Tuesday, 11/26/24, at 11:00 AM EST: The stock market turd is circling the bowl. Flush it down. The SPX is at the 6006 palindrome. Blow on it and it should fall over. The 2-hour chart will start a new candlestick at noon and then at 2 PM EST. Price is expected to fall from here but the stock market drunk remains standing for now trying to maintain balance. Watch out for that banana peel.

Note Added Tuesday Afternoon, 11/26/24, at 4:43 PM EST: It is Tuesday Afternoon so it is time for some Moody's. What happened? The SPX is supposed to drop not rally. The Fed minutes were released so traders were waiting for that story and that was a Rorschach test where the bulls see rate cuts as far as the eye can see, while bears see a pause or hikes coming as inflation reasserts its ugly face, as they both sing from the same hymn sheet. The SPX was goosed in the last 22 minutes of trading. Keystone has not seen anything jump so high since he pinched Nurse Goodbody's left cheek. Starting at 3:30 PM EST, the VIX was crushed lower creating the late-day orgy in stocks. Chairman Powell maintains his jackboot on the throat of Uncle Vix, keeping him pinned lower, so the wealthy can enjoy higher stock prices. The SPX prints a new all-time record high at 6025.42 and new all-time closing high at 6021.63. On the 2-hour chart, solid neggie d remains in place for the last 2 weeks, and in the very short term, except for the RSI and stochastics squeezing out higher highs. This means a jog move, or two, may be needed to top it off after the rally hype today (down-up for the top, which would be 2 to 4 hours, or down-up-down-up, which would be 6 to 8 hours). The holiday is Thursday and Friday is a shortened session. Stocks tend to be happy into a holiday weekend but that is not the usual case for Thanksgiving that tends to be a mixed bag. The SPX is topping now and at an odd time with Turkey Day at hand but tomorrow should be the top, unless, of course, there is more happy talk. The new moon peaks on Sunday so stocks would be expected to be soggy from Thanksgiving through Monday. Tomorrow may be an exciting day right before the holiday when we all stuff our faces like gluttons and feel no shame.

Note Added Thursday, Thanksgiving Day, 11/28/24: Stocks stutter yesterday but remain in a sideways muddle as the holiday plays through. The all-time high remains at 6025 from Tuesday with price now at 5999. That record high occurs on Tuesday at 3:50 PM EST during the last minutes of trading. This may be a high not seen again for many weeks. This should be the start of the neggie d spankdowns going forward unless world peace is declared. The Thanksgiving Day feast awaits. The turkeys are running for their lives. Keystone wants another helping of that delightful figgy pudding.

Note Added Sunday, 12/1/24: The SPX prints another new all-time record high at 6044.17 and new all-time closing high at 6032.38. The bulls are pushing the jello around the plate as Americans stuff their fat faces with food, candy and alcohol. Now it is time to contemplate Sunday Morning Coming Down by the man in black singing Kris's song. Nothing has changed. The week ahead will provide more clarity with Thanksgiving in the rear view mirror. 

Note Added Sunday, 12/8/24: On Friday, 12/6/24, the SPX prints a new all-time record high at 6099.97, only 3 pennies from 6100, and new all-time closing high at 6090.27. The Fed wine is flowing like water. The holiday orgy continues as the bulls tout AI keeping the semiconductors buoyant. 

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish

Keystone's trading algo, Keybot the Quant, flips back to the long side yesterday at munch time at SPX 5950. The battle for US stock market direction is between chips and commodes. Bulls need SOX above 5077 to declare victory ahead. Bears need GTX below 3565 to position the quant to flip back to the short side. Two enter the cage match but only one will exit. Watch the semiconductors and commodities to find out What's Up.

Keybot the Quant

Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

Keystone's trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips to the short side on Friday morning at SPX 5899. Chips, copper and commodities give up the bull ship sinking stocks. Bears got nothing, however, unless they can push VIX above 17.55.

Keybot the Quant

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish but Stock Market Remains a Coin-Flip

Keystone's proprietary trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips to the long side on Friday at SPX 5736. Copper and commodities goosed the stock market early Friday but both lost their gains turning bearish as the session played out and the quant already wants to flip short again. The bears need an 8-point pullback in the SPX to flip the model back to the short side. Watch copper because as copper goes, so goes the stock market.

Keybot the Quant

US Treasuries Yield Curve Losing the Dip in the Belly

Something interesting happened yesterday and no one noticed. The 5-year yield moved above the 2-year yield lifting the belly of the curve up towards normalcy. The yield curve must be on a diet since it is losing its belly. Time for a belly dance in Dubai. 3-year yield remains below the 2-year by only 2 bips so that would be expected to adjust next.

The rates are listed on the chart. The 20-year yield is a newer oddball trying to attract money with a higher rate. The heart of the US yield curve is the 2-5-10-30 curve that has now returned to normalcy. The bond gurus will have to figure out what the return to normalcy means as a US recession remains on a milk carton (missing).

The Godot Recession remains in place in the United States. There are ongoing recessions in the US housing market, manufacturing sector, and labor market, for over a year, which would typically guarantee an overall US recession, but alas, the US recession continues to party with Godot and not show up. Go figure. Something's got to give at some point. Is the election the catalyst everyone is waiting for?

The obscene money-printing by the Federal Reserve since 2009, and the mountains of additional fiscal stimulus pumped into the economy by Congress during the pandemic, have sent the stock market to the stratosphere, making America's wealthy class filthy rich beyond their dreams. Too bad that one-half of the country does not own a single share of stock. Such is the crony capitalism system; be glad it is in its last throes.

The non-stop consumer spending by the elite wealthy class, and the upper middle class sycophants that service the privileged class daily, prevent the overall US recession from appearing. However, think about it, how many $9K refrigerators, $15K vacation trips, and $100K new cars can you buy even if you are filthy rich? This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Wednesday, 11/6/24, at 7:15 AM EST: Donald Trump wins reelection as the 47th POTUS. Yields catapult higher with the normalization clearly in place. The yields are; 2-year 4.28%, 5-year 4.31%, 10-year 4.47%, 30-year 4.66%. The 2-10 spread is 19 bips.

Note Added Thursday, 11/14/24, at 7:00 AM EST:  The yields are; 2-year 4.27%, 3-year 4.25%, 5-year 4.30%, 7-year 4.38%, 10-year 4.44%, 30-year 4.62%. The 2-10 spread is 17 bips. The yield curve normalizes for the 2, 5, 7, 10, 30 notes and bonds but the 3-year yield remains 2 bips below the 2's. The belly still has a small paunch. This is the third time the yield curve has normalized since the initial move described above on 11/2/24 only 12 days ago.

UST10Y US 10-Year Note Yield Daily and Weekly Chart; Daily Time Frame Topped-Out with Neggie D; Weekly Time Frame Wants Another Higher High

The Treasury yields are all the rage nowadays. The US 10-year yield chart above is catapulting to the moon which is another market oddity since Pope Powell just cut rates by 50 bips. Are yields climbing because people think the economy is growing and will expand going forward, or, are traders worrying about the US debt and realizing that America's crony capitalism system in in its last throes? The US presidential election creates additional drama.

Keystone called the bottom in the 10-year yield in September. It was easy. The green lines show the falling wedge pattern that is bullish. The lower band was violated so a move higher to the middle band, at a minimum, was on the table and voila, it occurs, then yield tags the top band all the way up. The green lines show positive divergence across all chart indicators so yield was on the launch pad ready for a possie d rocket ride higher. The RSI and stochastics are oversold agreeable to a bounce. Boom. The ignition occurs and yield takes off higher on the possie d fuel. It's not rocket science, and Keystone knows rocket science.

So the next question is where is the top. On the daily chart, it is today. Note how yield came up to 4.34% and when it did, the red lines show all the chart indicators in negative divergence. She's out of gas. Since there is no longer any chart indicator fuel to take yield higher, it will receive a neggie d spankdown.

The upper band is violated so a trip back to the middle band at 4.08% and rising is on the table. The 200-day MA at 4.18 is sturdy support for yield and note that if yield continues lower, and the middle band higher, there may be a confluence setting up around 4.18%. This may be the downside target for the multi-day weakness ahead.

Remember, technical trading is playing multi-dimensional chess only time is the dimension not vertical space. Whazzat? The daily chart above is cooked as shown by the rising red wedge, upper band violation, overbot conditions and neggie d. That means yields are done going up. You would be an idiot to say that. First of all, you should never provide a forecast unless it has a time component attached. That way, you cannot weasel out of a bad call.

Yes, the daily chart above for the 10-year yield is cooked; stick a fork in it. However, look at the weekly chart; it is not in neggie d. What does that mean? What do you think? It means that yield still has legs to move higher on the weekly basis after the weakness and neggie d spankdown plays out on the daily basis.

Taking a look at the weekly chart, yield is moving higher but the ROC is neggie d. Also, the stochastics are overbot agreeable to a pullback. Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, that is why we are always the life of the party, thus, these two parameters on the weekly chart will conspire with the universal weakness on the daily chart to send yields lower for multiple days, perhaps a week or two, or even a month (possie d on the daily chart will tell you when a future bottom occurs like Aug-Sept so there is no need to guess), but once that is played out, the weekly chart wants to see another matching or higher high in yield due to the long and strong RSI, histogram, MACD and stochastics.

The RSI and histo are flattening out so they should set up with neggie d over the coming days, but the MACD may need a couple weeks to set up with neggie d and call the top on the weekly basis. Mixing all this together, yield should move lower for a few days or week or two but come back up for more highs again a couple weeks out. The significant top in the 10-year yield will likely occur in November and then a multi-week down move in yields will begin. You do not have to guess; simply watch the charts.

The 50-wk MA is 4.17% another data point in the confluence area of 4.18%. A multi-day pullback is on tap perhaps taking yields down to 4.18%-ish, then come back up because the weekly chart is long and strong. At that time, if the weekly chart is neggie d across all chart indicators, the multi-week top for the 10-year yield will be in place. Keystone is not playing any Treasuries or derivatives long or short currently in this arena. AC/DC played a lot of arenas and, like the bond traders, and Angus, are Thunderstruck at the up in yields. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Sunday, 12/8/24: As the charts showed, yield made another high/s on the weekly basis then promptly received the neggie d spankdown with the MACD line flattening. Yield is at 4.17% sticky at the 50-wk MA at 4.19% so the pivot from here is key. The 20-wk MA is at 4.04%. The daily chart is trying to steady itself for a bottom but the MACD line keeps moving lower wanting lower lows in yield on the daily basis. 4.10% is strong support from October, ditto 4.02%. The 4.02%-4.04% support is critical because if it fails, the 10-year yield will likely drop to 3.60%. The 200-day MA is 4.21% and the 50-day MA is 4.18% that yield cannot hold ahead of the weekend.