NYA NYSE Composite Weekly Chart with 40 MA Cross; Cyclical Bear Market Begins Unless Bulls Can Reverse the Negativity

Keystone's two most important long-term stock market indicators are the SPX 12-month MA cross and the NYA 40-week MA cross.

Today is a big deal because a failure occurs with the NYA 40-week MA cross throwing the US stock market into a cyclical bear market pattern going forward. The NYA 40-wk MA is at 15622 so write this number on your forehead so you do not forget it. The NYA collapses into a cyclical bear market today closing at 15601.

The bulls can easily reverse this extremely negative development for the stock market but time will tell if they can. The battle may continue for a few days or week or two before a clear winner emerges. All the Wall Street anal-ysts have revised their SPX forecasts higher so they are firmly in the camp that the NYA will bounce from here and never touch the 40-wk MA again. Do you think they are correct?

Watch NYA 15622 like a hawk since it tells you who wins going forward. If the negative cross remains verifying a new cyclical bear market, the next step is to watch the SPX 12-month MA cross. If that fails, the cyclical bear market is guaranteed and stocks will be facing a bloodbath.

The SPX 12-mth MA is at 4181 with the SPX at 4330. If the bears can send the S&P 500 only 149 points lower, there will be Hell to pay in the US stock market and an October crash will be in play. The fun starts with the NYA 15622 bull/bear line in the sand so keep an eye on it. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 9/23/23, Saturday: The NYA battles at the bull/bear line in the sand at 15622, that dictates a cyclical bear market ahead, as expected. It is Rock'em Sock'em Robots and the bears win the Friday battle with the NYA finishing the week at 15570. Expect more drama next week.