NVDA NVIDIA Weekly Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation

NVIDIA is cooked. Stick a fork in it. The earnings release and continuing AI orgy party provides additional joy for the bulls over the last couple weeks, but the better trade going forward is short on the weekly basis.

NVDA CEO Jensen Huang is the jackass that was holding up the NVIDIA AI black boxes and chips at an event expecting the audience to kneel and worship the new AI god; a false idol. Jensen likes the limelight. You know, Jesus walked on water, and perhaps Jensen wants to do a little walking too, as Charlie and the band played.

The NVDA weekly chart is toast. Price continues printing new highs but ALL the chart indicators are in negative divergence even the ADX line. There is no more fuel in the gas tank to take price higher on the weekly basis. In addition, the RSI, stochastics and money flow are at or coming off overbot conditions agreeable to a pullback. The red rising wedge is a bearish chart pattern.

Price has also violated the upper standard deviation band so the middle band, that is also the 20-wk MA at 395, is on the table as well as the lower band at 259. The blue lines show price support at 390-400 which lines up with the rising 20-wk MA at 395 so this confluence will act as a magnet for price as the pending multi-week down move kicks-in.

The ADX pink box verifies that the upside rally is a strong trend higher, however, as mentioned above, you can see that the ADX turns neggie d as price makes the new high, so there is downside in the ADX going forward. The strong trend higher would be officially over once the ADX falls out of the pink box at 30-ish. This always lags the price action.

The Aroon verifies the off-the-charts uber euphoric bullishness in NVIDIA. Traders are tripping over each other to buy NVDA at the ask. The taxi cab driver, Uber driver, shoeshine boy and doorman all said they are triple-leveraged long NVDA on full margin expecting huge returns ahead. Every market needs sucka's and fools, folks. No wonder they drive cars, shine shoes, and open doors for people; they will be doing that a long time after they lose their shirts on NVDA.

The Aroon green bullish line is near 100% so all the bulls believe that NVDA will keep going up and up. The Aroon red bearish line is near zero so all the bears also believe that NVDA will go up forever going forward. It's funny. Same-o stuff occurs every time. The Aroon is a contrary indicator so a negative cross will likely occur as price receives the neggie d spankdown on the weekly basis.

So NVDA is garbage on a weekly basis. How about other time frames? Remember, trading is playing 5-dimensional chess and the dimensions are minutes, hours, days, weeks and months. You know that NVDA will roll over and die on the weekly basis going forward. Can you time the top better since the weekly chart tells you it may top out anytime over the coming days or week or two and begin the multi-week down move?

If you bring up the daily chart, price is chopping up and down after the happy earnings release. The daily chart is also in neggie d so NVDA is cooked in the daily time frame. The upper band is violated so the middle band at 448 and lower band at 410 are on the table.

If you bring up the 2-hour chart, more neggie d, but the stochastics have a bit more oomph. Thus, mixing the charts together and sprinkling on some magic voodoo dust, she should top out today, in the coming hours, probably this morning before munchtime.

If you are long NVDA, especially if you bot the stock after listening to an *sshole on television or the internet, get yourself out before you lose your shirt. If you made profits, be happy, cash it in and flip the position short.

If you bring up the monthly chart, the RSI is neggie d which will conspire with the weekly chart to send price lower. The stochastics are overbot and neggie d ditto the money flow. However, the MACD line and histogram remain long and strong wanting to see another high in NVDA on the monthly basis. This feeds the narrative that NVDA is a good long-term play. The jury is out on that idea, and the hyped-up AI stuff, but NVDA will want to come back up for another matching or higher high in price after the multi-week down move ends.

Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, thus, NVDA will begin a multi-week down move now likely targeting 390-450, say through September, but then price will recover and come all the way back up again, say, in October/November (the charts will tell you the timing so there is no need to guess) to satisfy the strength remaining in the monthly time frame, and then top-out on the monthly basis with universal neggie d, then it is likely lights-out for NVIDIA on a long-term basis. At that point, as this year comes to an end, say October-ish or maybe early November, NVDA will begin a multi-month down move likely ending in a 2 handle during 2024. That's the roadmap so plan accordingly depending on your risk tolerance and trading time frames.

As usual, Keystone does not get invited to the fancy parties because he brings a wet blanket. Silicon Valley tech company's strip him of his fleece vest and complimentary AirPods branding him as an outcast forever. Keystone does not hold a position in NVDA long or short currently but obviously would play it on the short side if a position is opened. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 9/14/23, Thursday morning, at 8:35 AM EST: NVDA drops to 443 and recovers to 455 testing the 50-day MA support/resistance at 453 for a bounce or die decision. The MACD and money flow remain weak and bleak on the daily chart so there is likely a bit more weakness ahead in the daily time frame. MACD and stochastics are bad on the weekly chart so the multi-week trend lower should continue into October.

Note Added 9/16/23, Saturday: NVDA drops -4% last week to a low at 438 ending at 439. Keystone was the only dude that told you the spankdown was on tap for NVDA. Everyone else told you to buy, buy, buy.

Note Added 9/18/23, Monday Morning, at 7:40 AM EST: NVDA drops to 430.95 in the pre-market.

Note Added 9/19/23, Tuesday Morning, at 6:41 AM EST: NVDA drops to 420 yesterday and ends at 440..

Note Added 9/21/23, Thursday Morning, at 10:06 AM EST: NVDA pukes to the 414 palindrome. LOD 412. NVDA crashes -17% off the top thus far in only 15 trading days.

Note Added 9/23/23, Saturday: NVDA is at 416 losing -5.2% on the week. The weekly chart remains weak and bleak. Jester Jensen needs to jump on stage and start waving those AI chip boxes in the air again to try and shore up the bloated stock price. Traders are realizing that the AI hype is not what it is all hyped up about.