SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart; SPX Is Below 12-Mth MA at 4007-4010 Verifying Ongoing 1-Year Cyclical Bear Market but Drama Continues

It is time to separate the men from the boys. The SPX loses the 12-month MA at 4007-4010 maintaining the ongoing one-year cyclical bear market. The 10-mth MA is watched by Wall Street old-timer's and is programmed into algorithms and it is at 3941-3943.

Price came down to.... wait for it...... wait a bit longer for it ......... 3943 taking the first stab at this critical support level. It is for all the marbles. Since UTIL (DJU) 939 is in failure mode right now, the expectation would be for the bear outcome going forward and the SPX falling through 3941-3943 ushering-in severe stock market negativity.

However, it is all talk until, or unless, the 10-mth MA at 3941-3943 holds. If you are bullish on stocks and holding a lot of long positions, you best get on your knees, clasp your palms, and start praying that 3941-3943 holds, otherwise, you will meet The Maker.

The 50-wk MA is 4011. The 12-mth MA is 4007-4010. The 50-day MA is 3980. The SPX is at 3970. The 10-mth MA is 3941-3943. The 200-day MA is 3940. The 20-wk is 3937.

Price below the 50-week, 12-month and 50-day is a big deal and extremely negative. Look at that tight convergence and confluence below price serving as the last-ditch support at 3937-3943 which encompasses the 10-mth, 200-day and 20-week moving averages. That is high drama.

Watch the utilities to see if they remain in failure mode with UTIL below 939. If so, there will be Hell to pay with stocks. If the SPX loses 3937-3943, Goodnight Irene, Irene Goodnight. Turn out the lights, the Party is Over.

Bulls must claw back some strength to stop the negativity explained above and will bide some time if they can push SPX above the 50-day MA at 3980. Then, the bulls must push UTIL above 939, otherwise, nothing matters, since stocks are going to collapse if utes remain in failure mode.

It will be an interesting week ahead. The utility failure is bigtime. Maybe a Black Monday on tap? Nah, that can't happen, can it? Each side knows what they have to do and what is at stake. They prepare for battle tomorrow. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.