The NYXBT bitcoin weekly chart is taken to the alleyway out back, behind the dumpster, and beaten senseless. Bitcoin tries to rally during the summer but slumps over again. Price is playing around with the important S/R (support/resistance) price levels and deciding what to do. The green lines show universal positive divergence so a multi-week rally would be expected to begin at any time.
The oversold conditions are agreeable to a rally on the weekly basis. Price violated the lower standard deviation band in May and June so a trip back to the middle band was on the table and price recovered but did not quite make it up far enough for a touch. Thus, price really, really needs to come back to the middle band, which is also the 20-wk MA, now at 22372, and falling, to show it respect.
As a side note, the SPX weekly chart has an up vibe, ditto bitcoin, and the 10-year weekly yield is likely topping out and will fall going forward, so things are gelling together for a multi-week rally in stocks, bitcoin and bonds and notes. The wildcard is Chairman Powell who each day professes his undying love for hawkishness (raising rates to fight inflation but he will end up killing the economy).
Just as there is sometimes a fine line between love and hate, there can also be a fine line between a descending triangle and falling wedge. Huh? The blue descending triangle pattern on the GBTC daily chart is bearish. The green falling wedge pattern is bullish. The nod has to be given to the bulls and the falling wedge due to the positive divergence at play (green lines).
Again, Powell's words may move markets, or a new bitcoin scandal or major theft news may occur, but barring that stuff, GBTC wants to rally. It is fine if price drops a little further since the possie d should remain in place for all the indicators and the rally would begin after any further small drop.
Can the bearish descending triangle play out? Sure, anything is possible but typically the touches on the bottom blue line would be more level. Once the lows remain lower lows for the trend and the wedge forms, the pattern becomes bullish. You can see the recent lows are clearly lower than the June and July lows. If you say the triangle already failed (as drawn), that may be the case, but triangles typically fall far more dramatically. Price would be expected to fall out of bed and collapse from a descending triangle instead it bumps along sideways for the last month. Also, the GBTC weekly chart is set up with possie d like NYXBT above.
Bitcoin should rally this week surprising everyone since the sentiment is universally bearish; the boat is loaded on the negative side right now. Keystone does not have any GBTC long right now but will pick some up today. Key also owns RIOT long that has been bumping sideways. All the bitcoin plays should begin rallying. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Note Added 9:00 AM EST: Bitcoin is at 19420.
Note Added 10:22 AM EST: Bitcoin is at 19350.
Note Added Tuesday, 10/18/22, at 2:26 PM: Bitcoin remains flatter than a newlywed's soufflé at 19385.
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