By K E Stone (Keystone)
The coronavirus (COVID-19) news has taken a terrible turn
for the worse. Tragically, the US daily new cases spike to 279,154 cases today,
1/7/21. Dear Lord. There are 4,207 deaths in the US from covid on 1/7/21 the
deadliest day ever. 1 person is dying
every 21 seconds or put another way, 3 Americans are dying every minute. Over
374K Americans are dead from covid; that is 1 out of every 882 Americans. 22
million Americans have been or are infected with covid; that is 1 in every 15
people. The virus has plenty more bodies to infect if it chooses.
Sadly, Americans are dropping like flies from covid while
Trump keeps pretending he won the election. The United States is dealing with
the Capitol Hill Riot that took place on 1/6/21 in Washington, DC. The pandemic
news takes a backseat to the Capitol Hill insurrection since 3 PM EST
yesterday. And yet America reports the worse day for coronavirus infections
ever and the deadliest day of the pandemic ever but everyone is watching the
riot. Adding insult to injury, that mayhem in Washington, DC, yesterday is
going to turn into a superspreader event.
Let’s start this coronavirus update article with some simple
math. Let’s talk vaccinations and herd immunity. The medical community is targeting
September 1st as a goal to reach herd immunity with about 240 million people
vaccinated (this would require 480 million doses). Considering the track record
thus far with the pandemic mess, the boys in Brooklyn are saying, “Good luck
wit dat.” Americans have lost confidence in the government, science
and medical authorities.
20 million people were supposed to be vaccinated by the end
of the year and we are well into January now with only 6.3 million doses given
out of 21.4 million doses shipped and sitting in US freezers as per the Bloomberg vaccination data. People are
calling doctors asking about vaccinations. No one knows what to do or who to
ask about vaccinations. The doctors need more information and are asking the
states. The states are looking for funding help from the federal government. Elderly
folks wait for a few hours for a shot only to be turned away. The healthcare
workers are exhausted. It’s a mess. Humorously, albeit sad, some of those
elderly folks will contract covid while they are waiting in line to receive the
covid shot.
Dr Fauci says the vaccination program will ramp up to 1
million doses a day. There are 24 days remaining in January, February is 28
days, March 31, April 30, May 31, June 30, July 31 and August 31 days. Adding
these numbers together is 236 days. At 1 million doses per day, only 118
million people (36% of the population) would be fully vaccinated come September
1. The Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines each require two doses. That will
not achieve herd immunity this year and the US would be lucky to get there in
the spring of 2022.
The US needs to provide 2 million vaccinations per day and
herd immunity will be achievable by Labor Day (September). Each day that the US
is not sticking 2 million arms is another day that would have to be added
beyond September 1st to reach herd immunity. If the medical community cannot
administer 2 million vaccinations a day by March or April, the coronavirus will
continue on the same current path all year long into 2022 (unless the virus
burns itself out which is a potential outcome).
About 70% to 85% of the 330 million US population needs to
be vaccinated, or have had covid, to achieve herd immunity. These folks will
have antibodies so the virus transmission will slow and die out. The 70% is 231
million people and 85% of the US population is 281 million people. This 230
million to 280 million vaccination target range is in line with the medical
community that appears to be highlighting the 240 million people number as the
vaccination goal.
Almost 7% of the US population has had covid or are
currently sick, and there are likely another 5% or more that have had covid and
did not know it, or the symptoms were mild and they took care of themselves at
home. Thus, about 10% to 15% of the US may have been exposed to covid and have
antibodies. This reduces the number of vaccinations that would be needed but
not so fast.
Typically, during any two-shot vaccination program, many
people do not show up for the second shot for various reasons. Some become sick
or allergic after the first shot and are fearful of the second shot. Some
people are occupied with family emergencies and others may be called out of the
country on business. Thus, about 10% of the people that receive the first shot
will likely not come back a month later.
Mixing the numbers together, with the 10%’s in opposite
directions cancelling each other out, the US is back in that 240 million-ish
goal range of vaccinated people to achieve herd immunity. And remember! This is
240 million people which is 480 million doses; call it 500 million doses. You
can divvy the math up at any rate targeting any month in the future as the herd
immunity goal month. Dividing the 500 million doses by the 236-day period from
now until September 1st, yields a vaccination rate of 2.1 million shots per
day. We all know that is not going to happen. Waiting for herd immunity in 2021
will be like waiting for Godot. The US is screwed. January and February are
going to be the worst months of the pandemic.
As the math shows, if you could wave a magic wand and
vaccinate 2 million people per day (doses), then herd immunity would be
achieved by September. Pundits and commentators will have to be careful to not confuse
the number of vaccine doses with the number of people vaccinated. Both the
Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines require two shots so the US basically
needs to stick 500 million arms and 6.3 million are done thus far (1.2%). 2021
is going to look a lot like 2020, however, even the longest journey begins with
the first step. Perhaps the numbers do not matter and covid will burn itself
out in the summertime, about 18 months from its onset in the States. Past pandemics
and diseases have disappeared in this manner.
The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model,
the Keystone Model for short, uses the daily new cases to project when the
active cases chart will flatten and roll over which signals an end to the
pandemic. The active cases chart is the most important chart since this is the
curve that needs to flatten and then roll over to the downside to create the
bell shape, hence the term, “flattening the curve.”
The flattening of the active cases curve represents the strain
on the healthcare system subsiding and then the active cases curve dropping off
on the right-hand side, to form the bell shape, verifies that the virus is
being defeated and healthcare workers can finally relax and catch a break.
Alas, the US active cases chart above is a sick pup continuing higher and
higher as explained below. Healthcare workers will see no relief until
mid-February if they are lucky so plan accordingly.
The US daily new cases reach the highest ever today at 279K
cases as shown in the chart above. It is a sad day and a sad way to begin the
new year parade. The Christmas and New Year’s holiday party cases are showing-up
at hospitals. It is time to pay the piper for the mistletoe kisses. Tragically,
the 7-day MA, which is the moving average line, which smooths out the data so a
trend can be identified, is the highest ever at 234K. Lord Help Us. Adding 28
days to the daily new case high at 1/7/21, as per the Keystone Model, yields a
target date of 2/4/21 for when the active cases curve will flatten and
potentially roll over; February!!
For the US active cases chart above, the story is sad.
America remains unable to flatten the curve and unable to defeat the virus.
Perhaps victory will occur in February. The new projection for flattening the
curve is early February so keep those fingers crossed. In the meantime, batten
down the hatches. Stock your pantry with a couple months of inventory including
medicines, water and of course toilet paper. Remain diligent against COVID-19.
Take zinc and vitamin D-3 each day. Stay away from people as
far away as possible. Work at home if you can. If your job cannot be performed
from home, then look for another job; don’t lay around hoping that things will
get better since that never works out. If available, use a humidifier in rooms that typically see movement of people, or people congregating for a few minutes at a time, or a living room, or a receptionist area at a business, since the virus droplets do not remain in humid air as long as the droplets remain in dry air. This is why the virus spreads more easily in wintertime. People return inside as the weather cools and the heat in buildings dries the air so more virus particles are suspended and circulating and people are exposed more since they are inside. Be patient with yourself and others.
There’s more to life than money. The red dotted-lines in the active cases chart above show the terrible path
ahead for America. A couple tough months are at our doorstep and the vaccines cannot
help.
The United States daily new deaths are above 4K for the last
two days and now above 4.2K at 4,207 deaths on 1/7/21. This is crazy. Those are
mom’s and dad’s, grandmothers and grandfathers, aunts and uncles, everyone is
impacted nowadays. That is a lot of bodies. No matter how battle-hardened a
doctor or nurse is from all the human pain, suffering and death they see each
day, the pandemic is a whole new animal. The healthcare workers are overwhelmed
physically, mentally and emotionally.
Leaders need to step up and organize the pandemic mess and
provide specific guidance to people concerning the coronavirus and
vaccinations. Leaders must be open to new ideas and implement the good ones
quickly. One idea to speed-up vaccinations is to have dentists administer
shots. That’s a great idea. Go! Run with it! Go! Who’s in charge? Donnie? Bueller?
Trump is useless at this point. He is laying under the covers in the Lincoln
Bedroom with an icepack on his head playing motor boat with his index finger
and lips. Things are such a mess everywhere you do not know if you should laugh
or cry.
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluations (IHME) is
the go to resource to monitor the US cumulative deaths. The IHME charting shows
that 567K Americans will be dead come 4/1/21 on the current projection. We can
drop that death count to 555K by 4/1/21 if we can get the vaccine rollout on
track from here forward. More strict mask guidelines could trim the US deaths
to 518K by 4/1/21 according to the IHME data. The bad statistic is 729K
Americans dead on 4/1/21 and this may occur if the covid guidelines are lifted
and if people continue partying without a care in the world. In this scenario,
the China Flu deaths would exceed the Spanish Flu deaths from 102 years ago.
132,700 Americans are hospitalized for covid another record
as per the COVID Tracking Project. More proof that our great healthcare
workers, doctors, nurses, medics, first responders, candy stripers (although
this is an old school reference) and other folks that make the hospitals run,
are faced with Hell on Earth into Valentine’s Day. As a goal, tell your honey
that he/she will have to treat you good when 2/14/21 comes around.
The US will likely not see this latest wave of covid subside
until early to mid-February. Six weeks. Healthcare workers should focus on the
fact that they have to keep up the pace for six more weeks and then perhaps, at
least the heavy hospital patient loads, will subside. People hoping for various
operations for ailments other than covid will likely have to wait until March
or April for the outrageous covid patient load to calm down.
The UK’s daily new cases chart is shown above reporting a
record 62,322 cases yesterday, 1/6/21. Crossing above 40K UK daily new cases
was a big deal and that occurred only eight days ago! The UK’s active cases
curve is parabolic so there is no flattening in sight. The Brit’s are screwed.
They are unable to stop that new strain of virus B117. UK deaths are 1,162
souls today the most of the second wave and only exceeded by 4/21/20 with
1,166. UK PM Boris Johnson has his hands full. The medical experts say the new
B117 strain was not as deadly. Are they sure? 1 in every 30 Londoner’s have or
had covid.
Japan’s daily new cases chart is shown above reporting 6,076
cases the highest ever. The land of the rising sun was a shining example of how
to handle the virus quickly and efficiently with testing and tracing programs,
however, Japan is now in the covid quagmire trying to find a way out of its
third wave that is starting to bite hard. It’s looking ugly on the aging
island.
New York’s daily new cases chart is shown above reporting 18,030
daily new cases the highest ever during the entire pandemic. Governor Cuomo’s management and leadership
book did not help since the charts are going parabolic. Keystone places the
book back under the table leg so it can be put to better use. Cuomo received an
international Emmy award for his handling of the pandemic. Maybe the judges
should take another look at the charts. New York’s active cases chart will not
try to flatten until early February. January will be an ugly month.
China’s coronavirus (COVID-19), spawned at the two bioweapons
biolaboratories in Wuhan, has infected 88.6 million people around the world
killing 1.9 million souls. The CCP (Chinese Communist Party), led by dirtbag
Dictator Xi, who has no respect for the sanctity and dignity of life, unleashes
bioterrorism upon the planet and their own Chinese people. China is dealing
with a new outbreak now of about 100 people and enforcing a city lockdown.
CNN had an interesting special on the origination of the
virus and the bats and all that other bunk and showed one bioweapons laboratory
in the film; and not the other. A Chinese spokesman, withthe full blessing of the CCP, is on video a few days
ago stating that virus did not start in the market. This is a
revelation. The filthy CCP has been saying for a year it was the market. Do not
trust anything China says; this should go without saying but many Americans are
dumb as rocks.
The dirtbag Chinese communists will not allow WHO scientists
into Wuhan to investigate the virus. This is after one year of time! WHO is the
organization running the pandemic show internationally. China thumbs its nose
at the WHO. Early on in the pandemic, the WHO ran cover for the communists
which delayed the reaction time of all other nations. China played this delay
game because they purchased every supply of PPE available around the world knowing they were screwing all other countries on earth. Do
not trust the filthy Chinese communists.
COVID-19 more than likely originated from one of the Wuhan
biolabs. The subject is very sensitive since the US government, according to
news reports that are all over the map, via Fauci, provided China $3.7 million
in funding to study viruses at these labs a couple years ago. Perhaps things
got out of control?
Over 63 million people have recovered worldwide (72%; 7 in
10 people in the world that were infected with covid have recovered; this
number inches higher fractionally week after week).
The Wuhan Flu, or China Virus, has attacked and sickened 22 million
Americans (6.6% of the 330 million US population; this number keeps increasing
at a steady pace; 1 in every 15 US citizens have been infected with COVID-19),
the highest number of cases in the world, murdering over 370K United States citizens.
One American is dying every 21 seconds from covid with US daily deaths exceeding
4.2K deaths per day. The deadliest covid day in the US is 4,207 deaths on 1/7/21,
today. Over 13 million Americans have recovered from covid (59%; this number is
steady sideways not improving but not deteriorating either; 3 out of every 5
Americans that were infected with covid have recovered).
The world has a better virus recovery percentage than the
United States. America is only 4.2% of the world’s 7.8 billion population but
has one-quarter (25%; worsening over the last month) of the coronavirus cases
and one-fifth (20%; holding steady over the last month) of the deaths.
The USA has the greatest number of total coronavirus cases in
the world at 22 million followed by India (10.4 million), Brazil (7.9), Russia
(3.3), UK (2.9), France (2.7), Turkey (2.3), Italy (2.0), Spain (2.0), Germany
(1.9), Argentina (1.7), Colombia (1.7), Mexico (1.5), Poland (1.4), Iran (1.3),
South Africa (1.1), Ukraine (1.1), Peru (1.02), Netherlands (851K), Indonesia (798K),
Czechia (795K), Romania (659K), Belgium (656K), Canada (633K), Chile (629K), Iraq
(601K), Bangladesh (520K) and Pakistan (495K), Sweden (483K) and Philippines
(482K).
UK leapfrogs France. The situation is bad in the UK. South
Africa worsens by two spots and is now a member of the dreaded 1 million total
cases club. Canada worsens by three spots. Sweden joins the sad list above
which is the 30 worst nations on earth for total coronavirus cases. 18 nations
have over 1 million total covid cases.
The pandemic will be at its absolute worse when President
Trump leaves office in 13 days. President-elect Biden is sworn-in at the inauguration
on 1/20/21 and then he will take control of managing the pandemic. Trump broke
it and now he hands it to Biden telling him to fix it.
19 countries have over 1,000 deaths per 1 million
population. The worst nations are smaller countries such as San Marino, Belgium,
Slovenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Liechtenstein, Montenegro, Andorra and North
Macedonia. This list of high deaths per 1 million population includes Italy,
Czechia, UK, Bulgaria, Peru, USA, Spain, France, Mexico, Croatia and Hungary.
In total deaths, USA is number one with over 374K dead. That
is astounding. The undertakers are booked solid. Brazil has 199K dead and India
has 150K dead. Mexico, UK, Italy, France, Russia, Iran and Spain make up the
top 10. Gravediggers never ate so well.
The Keystone Model uses the peak in daily new cases to
forecast when the active cases curve will flatten and roll over. The bell curve
shape on the active cases curve verifies that the virus is defeated but to form
the bell the curve must first flatten. The flattening of the curve represents
the patient loads leveling off and the right side of the bell curve is where
healthcare workers finally receive a much needed rest. The peak in daily new
cases occurs with the highest reported daily cases, or any subsequent day
within 8% of that peak.
If the country, region, locality or state is well-prepared,
the active cases chart will peak in 11 days, on average, after the new cases
peak (think South Korea, Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, etc..). The 11 days typically
holds true for communist, authoritarian and dictatorship-style governments,
such as red China, since the population has to do what it is told or they
receive a bullet in their heads. Even the second wave outbreaks in Australia,
Hong Kong and Japan are brought under control in this same short time period as
the initial wave. Australia and Singapore, however, are the only current
shining example on how to defeat the virus. China cannot be trusted concerning
anything about COVID-19 since they knowingly sent the virus around the world;
sick communists.
Japan is getting hit hard with a third wave now reporting
the highest daily new cases ever. Ditto South Korea that is held out as a blueprint
to follow but they just reported the highest number of daily new cases ever
with a third wave hitting hard. South Korea is not a blueprint; instead, it has
a covid boot print on its forehead although its active cases curve may be
rolling over now. Time will tell if Japan and South Korea can control the
pandemic in the 11-day window, or not. Ireland also handled the pandemic
quickly early this year but is having difficulty now with the daily new cases
the highest for the current third wave and the active cases curve continuing
higher.
If the country is not well-prepared for a pandemic, or a free
nation, non-communist, like the US and other Western nations,
non-authoritarian, the active cases will peak 28 days after the peak in new
cases. Same for any US state. Add 28 days to the New Cases Peak Date to arrive
at the Projected Active Cases Peak Date (when the pandemic will begin to
subside and hopefully decrease; the top of the bell curve where the strain on
the medical systems and personnel is at a peak).
Citizens in Western nations live more feely and
independently so it is difficult to control a pandemic. Israel is of course a
key part of the Free World but PM Netanyahu’s authoritarian style aids the
country in maintaining control over the virus for three distinct waves,
however, a new wave four is in progress with daily new cases rising again.
Israel is in a new lockdown but having trouble taming this fourth wave.
The coronavirus pandemic is under control and defeated when
the active cases curve rolls over lower forming the bell shape, and no sooner.
The term “flattening the curve” only corresponds to the active cases chart (the
US active cases chart is shown above) and not to the new cases, hospitalizations,
deaths or any other virus charts.
An update for The Keystone Model is provided since another
10-day period passes and more data and information are available to push the
story forward. We are into the new year but many folks are joyless since the US
coronavirus active cases curve (above) is heading higher and higher with no
signs of flattening. This tells you that more COVID-19 sickness, sadness and
tragedy is ahead and 2021 will begin on a down beat, and likely be a lot like
2020. The covid new is not sugar-coated here folks.
This is Article 30 in K E Stone’s (The Keystone Speculator) coronavirus
series of articles that provides real-time information for historians,
teachers, students, journalists, economists, market participants, corporate
executives, financial managers, Wall Street, doctors, nurses, medical personnel,
first responders, researchers, public officials, news organizations, traders,
investors and politicians studying the COVID-19 pandemic both domestically
(USA) and internationally. This thirtieth article is published on Thursday,
1/7/21.
Keystone’s covid articles are the only real-time source of
information available continuously chronicling the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic during
2020 and 2021. Readers live and breathe the pandemic, the worst in a century,
as it occurs in real-time, experiencing the daily virus zeitgeist, good or bad,
devoid of political correctness. This is not revisionist history-telling. It is
the raw pandemic truth and human emotion occurring and recorded in real time.
The first article in the coronavirus series is US
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infections Chart 3/15/20; The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
Infection Rate Model; US COVID-19 Infections Surpass 3,300; Federal Reserve
Blinks and Cuts Interest Rates to the Zero Bound Embracing ZIRP and Announcing
$700 Billion QE Program; US Futures Tank Limit-Down; Coronavirus Archive
Article 1 published 3/15/20.
The second article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 3/24/20; Italy Daily Cases Leveling Off;
US Daily Cases Continue Rising; Congress Negotiating Fiscal Stimulus Bill;
Coronavirus Archive Article 2 published 3/24/20.
The third article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/3/20; Italy Daily Active Cases
Peaking; United States Faces Ugly Coronavirus Pain Ahead; US Monthly Jobs
Report; Coronavirus Archive Article 3 published 4/3/20.
The fourth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/13/20; US Active Cases Continue
Rising; India, Indonesia, Singapore, Japan, Russia, Peru, Ecuador and UK Headed
for Trouble; Second Wave Worries; President Trump Ushers in Age of MMT (Modern
Monetary Theory (Limitless Spending)); Rampant Job Losses; People in Need;
Finger-Pointing Begins; Worldwide COVID-19 Cases Top 2 Million; Coronavirus
Archive Article 4 published 4/13/20.
The fifth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/23/20; Australia, South Korea,
Switzerland, Germany, Hong Kong, Taiwan and China are Coronavirus Success
Stories; Italy, France and Spain Finally at Top of Active Case Bell Curve; UK,
Ecuador, Japan, Turkey, Peru, Brazil, Canada, Indonesia, India, Russia, Mexico
and Singapore Brace for Virus Pain; Countries Anxious to Restart Economies;
“Flattening the Curve” Term Misused; Ongoing Shortages of Virus Testing
Supplies and PPE (Personal Protective equipment); Congress Passes $484 Billion
Spending Bill; US COVID-19 Deaths Top 50,000; GRIM VIRUS NEWS 4/25/20; Coronavirus
Archive Article 5 published on 4/23/20.
The sixth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate model Update 5/3/20; America Restarts Economy as New
Virus Cases Increase; US Active Cases Not Expected to Peak Until 5/21/20; 68K
Americans Dead from COVID-19 More Than Vietnam War; Testing Deficiencies
Continue; Coronavirus Preferentially Hurts Black Community; Brazil, Nigeria,
South Africa, India, Russia, Mexico and Chile Descend Into COVID-19 Hell this
Month; US-China Relations Collapsing; President Trump Says 100K People May Die;
U of W Model Says 134K May Die in US; Coronavirus Article 6 published on
5/3/20.
The seventh article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 5/14/20; Russia, India, Nigeria, Brazil,
UK and Philippines Remain Mired in Virus Trouble; South Africa, Indonesia,
Chile, Peru and Mexico are in COVID-19 Hell; America Restarts Economy Before
Flattening the Curve; Texas, California, New Jersey and New York Worst Virus
States; Testing Deficiencies Persist; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Second
Wave Fears; Coronavirus Article 7 published on 5/14/20.
The eighth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 5/24/20; Math Explains the Black and
Latino Infections and Ongoing Coronavirus Zeitgeist; Russia, Poland, Brazil,
Peru, Bolivia, Chile, Argentina, Columbia, Honduras, Mexico, India, Pakistan,
Bangladesh, Indonesia, Nigeria, Kenya, Egypt and South Africa in COVID-19 Hell;
America Restarts Economy; US Active Cases Curve Finally Flattens; New York,
Florida, Ohio, Washington, California, Texas, Arkansas and North Carolina are
Worst States Not Yet Able to Flatten the Curve; Coronavirus Tragedy Turns
Political; President Trump Refuses to Wear a Mouth Diaper (Face Mask); Hertz
Goes Bankrupt; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Second Wave Fears; Trump
Golfs; US DEATHS EXCEED 100,000; Coronavirus Article 8 published on 5/24/20.
The ninth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/3/20; Indonesia, Philippines, Egypt,
Kenya, South Africa, Mexico, Honduras, Columbia, Brazil, Peru, Bolivia, Chile,
Argentina, Bangladesh, Pakistan and India are in COVID-19 Hell; America
Continues Reopening the Economy; US Active Cases Curve Finally Flattens
(Tentatively); Texas, Arkansas, North Carolina and California are Troubled
States; Second Wave Worries Continue; US-China Relations Deteriorating;
Population Becoming Complacent About COVID-19; Coronavirus Article 9 published
on 6/3/20.
The tenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/13/20; Philippines, Peru, Iran, Kenya,
Poland, Sweden, India, Indonesia, Honduras, Brazil, Bolivia, Chile, Pakistan,
Bangladesh, South Africa, Egypt, Columbia and Argentina are in COVID-19 Hell;
US Virus Cases Rising in Many States Due to Increased Testing, Reopening the
Economy, Protests and Large Groups Gathering; Arizona, Texas, Arkansas, South
Carolina, North Carolina, California and Florida are in Serious Trouble;
President Trump Moves Republican Convention to Florida Where Virus Cases are
Spiking; Protests and Riots Increase Around the World; US Police Under Scrutiny
for Racial Injustice; Public Health Authorities Clueless; Coronavirus Article
10 published on 6/13/20.
The eleventh article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/23/20; Pandemic in the Sunbelt (US
South and West); Arizona, California, Texas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Florida,
Carolina’s, Arkansas and New Mexico are US Hot-Spots; Houston Running Out of
Beds; South Asia, America’s and Africa Experiencing COVID-19 Hell; US, Bolivia,
Argentina, Guatemala, India and Philippines are in Serious Trouble;
Deteriorating US-China Relations and Increasing US COVID-19 Cases Creating
Market Angst; Coronavirus Article 11 published on 6/23/20.
The twelfth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 7/4/20; US Experiencing Dramatic Uptick
in Cases as President Trump and Vice President Pence Signal the All-Clear;
Ohio, Florida, Carolina’s, Arkansas, Georgia, California, Alabama, Arizona,
Texas and Oklahoma are in COVID-19 Hell; Texas, Arizona and Florida are
Reaching Limits on ICU Beds; US, Bolivia, Argentina, Colombia, Guatemala,
Honduras, Mexico, Philippines, Indonesia, India, Bangladesh, South Africa and
Kenya are in Serious Coronavirus Trouble; COVID-19 Timeline; Coronavirus
Article 12 published on 7/4/20.
The thirteenth article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 7/14/20; President Trump
Pressures States to Reopen Schools; Donnie Finally Dons a Face Diaper; US Death
Numbers Controversy Explained; RNC (Republican) Convention in Jeopardy; Kansas,
Washington, Tennessee, Alaska, the Carolina’s, Idaho, Wisconsin, Arkansas,
Oregon, Ohio, Louisiana, Georgia, Utah, Montana, Alabama, Oklahoma, Missouri
and Kentucky Join Florida, Texas, Arizona and California in the Coronavirus
Cesspool; Oman, India, El Salvador, Bolivia, Argentina, South Africa, Romania,
Mexico, Colombia and USA are in COVID-19 Hell; US-China Relations
Deteriorating; Italy Textbook Bell Curve; New Kazakhstan Virus; Coronavirus
Article 13 published on 7/14/20.
The fourteenth article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 7/24/20; President Trump
Reverses Course Touting Mask Use and Restarting Coronavirus Press Conferences;
Over 20 Million Americans Remain Unemployed; New Mexico, Alabama, Wisconsin,
Arkansas, Alaska, North Carolina, California, Oklahoma and Missouri are the
Most-Infected States; US Healthcare System is Under Heavy Pressure Through
August; Australia, Hong Kong and Japan Hit with Second Waves; India, El
Salvador, Argentina, South Africa, Romania, Brazil, Bolivia, Mexico,
Kazakhstan, Colombia, Kenya and United States are Most-Infected Nations; US-China
Tensions Escalate; US Congress Negotiating Another Stimulus Bill; Coronavirus
Article 14 published on 7/24/20.
The fifteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 8/3/20; Australia, Hong Kong, Japan,
Spain and Peru Handling Second Wave; Philippines, Colombia, Bolivia, Mexico,
India, Ukraine, El Salvador, Peru, Spain, Argentina, Romania and Brazil in
COVID-19 Hell; 41 US States Show Active Cases Curves Continuing Higher; 9 US
States are in a Second Wave; Coronavirus Particle Size Analysis and Aerosol
Behavior; Public Restrooms and Fecal Matter May Be Major Factors in Virus
Transmission; Testing Troubles Continue; AstraZeneca Granted Protection from
Vaccine Liability; Coronavirus Article 15 published on 8/3/20.
The sixteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 8/13/20; Finally Good Pandemic News for
the United States; Europe Slipping Into Second Wave Behavior; Most Problematic
Virus-Infected Nations are India, Philippines, Romania, Ukraine, Iraq,
Colombia, Peru, Bolivia, Argentina, El Salvador, Netherlands, Belgium, France
and Spain; Worst US States are Kentucky, California, Mississippi, Illinois,
Indiana, Arkansas, Virginia, Idaho, Wisconsin, North Dakota and Hawaii; US
Congress Deadlocked on Stimulus Bill After President Trump Signs Executive
Order; US Testing Troubles Continue; Good News Turns Bad with US Active Cases
Resuming the Uptrend; Coronavirus Article 16 published on 8/13/20.
The seventeenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 8/23/20; US is Struggling to ‘Flatten
the Curve’; Australia, Hong Kong and Japan Defeat the Second Wave; European
Countries Mired in Second Wave Include France, Spain, Italy, Belgium,
Netherlands, Finland, Ireland, Austria, Switzerland, Germany, Greece, Poland
and Czechia; Peru, Nepal, Turkey and UAE are also in Second Waves; Worst
Countries are India, Ukraine, UAE, Moldova, Croatia, Albania, Greece, Poland,
Switzerland, Italy and France; North Korea in Famine; 9 US States in Second
Wave; Worst US States are Illinois, South Dakota, North Dakota, Michigan, Iowa,
Wyoming, Kansas, Missouri, North Carolina, Delaware, Hawaii, Kentucky and
California; US Congress is on Vacation Remaining Deadlocked on Stimulus Bill; RNC
Convention Begins; Coronavirus Article 17 published on 8/23/20.
The eighteenth article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 9/2/20; US Unable to
‘Flatten the Curve’; Countries with Worst New Cases are India, UAE, Czechia,
Turkey, Ireland, Finland, Spain, Costa Rica, Canada, Italy, Nepal, Peru,
Honduras, Indonesia, Ukraine, France and Greece; Europe Deals with Second Wave;
Worst US States are West Virginia, Mississippi, Kansas, South Dakota, North
Dakota, South Carolina, Illinois, Iowa, Alabama, Rhode Island, Delaware,
Hawaii, Kentucky, Virginia, Alaska, Oregon, Georgia and Arizona; US Congress
Continues Fiscal Stimulus Talks; Polls Tighten in US Presidential Race; Coronavirus Article 18 published on 9/2/20.
The nineteenth article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 9/12/20; United States
Finally Flattening the Active Cases Bell Curve Chart; President Trump Admits He
Downplayed Virus; US Schools and Colleges Reopen; 2% of Americans Have Been or
Are Infected with Coronavirus; Second Wave Consumes Europe; 31 Nations Report
Increases in New Cases This Month; 26 Countries Report Increases in New Cases
in Last Two Days; New Cases Spike in 15 US States in Last 9 Days; 28 US States
Cannot Yet Flatten the Curve; Congress Unable to Agree on Stimulus Bill;
COVID-19 Has Killed Over 200,000 Americans; Coronavirus Article 19 published on
9/12/20.
The twentieth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 9/24/20; Over 200,000 Americans Dead; US
is Flattening the Active Cases Bell Curve Chart but 35 States Are Struggling;
10 US States Report Highest New Coronavirus Cases Ever including Wyoming,
Kansas, North Dakota, South Dakota, Missouri, Minnesota, Utah, West Virginia,
Arkansas and Illinois; Europe is in COVID-19 Hell but Only Imposing
Lockdown-Lite Restrictions; Israel Imposes Strict Lockdown; 19 Countries Report
Highest New COVID-19 Cases Ever Including Spain, Netherlands, UK, Poland,
Romania, Hungary, Greece, Czechia, Moldova, Ukraine, UAE, Iran, Iraq, Bahrain,
Israel, Nepal, Morocco, Indonesia and Argentina; President Trump Asks UN
Members to Hold China Accountable for “The China Virus”; Congress Unable to
Agree on Fiscal Stimulus Bill; US Stock Market Slips into a -10% Correction;
WORDWIDE CORONAVIRUS DEATHS EXCEED 1 MILION PEOPLE; PRESIDENT TRUMP AND FIRST
LADY MELANIA TEST POSITIVE FOR COVID-19; Coronavirus Article 20 published on
9/24/20.
The twenty-first article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 10/4/20; President Trump in Hospital
Battling Coronavirus; US Continues Flattening the Active Cases Bell Curve Chart
Despite 39 States in COVID-19 Trouble; New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania,
Massachusetts, Connecticut and New Hampshire Begin a Disappointing 2nd Wave;
Big Spikes in New Cases Occurring in Missouri, Wisconsin, Kentucky, Nebraska,
Montana and Wyoming; Coronavirus Smacks the Midwest and Northwest US;
Whitehouse Rose Garden Superspreader Event; Over 214K Americans Dead; Over 1
Million Humans Dead; Over 35 Million Humans Infected; Europe Dealing with Major
2nd Wave Outbreak; 30 Countries Experiencing Spikes in New Virus Cases
Including Italy, France, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Ireland, UK, Austria,
Sweden, Russia, Canada, Argentina and Iraq; US Congress Continues Negotiating
Stimulus Bill; Trump Released from Walter Reed Hospital; AMERICA BLEW IT
AGAIN!; US Fails to Flatten the Curve; Coronavirus Article 21 published on
10/4/20.
The twenty-second article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 10/14/20; America Fails to
Flatten the Curve; Nearly 222,000 Americans Dead; President Trump Recovers;
Vaccine and Antibody Trials Hit Snags; 44 US States Report Record New Cases
Including the Dakota’s, Ohio, New Mexico, Kentucky, Iowa, Idaho, Wisconsin,
Pennsylvania, Colorado, Texas, Massachusetts, Washington, Michigan, Tennessee,
Kansas, Connecticut and Alaska; 38 Countries Report Record New Cases Including
US, Canada, Germany, Italy, France, Spain, Portugal, Netherlands, Finland,
Czechia, Poland, Switzerland, Ukraine, Iran and UAE; Europe Sinking into
COVID-19 Hell; Bubonic Plague Redux Map; US Fiscal Stimulus Appears Unlikely
Before the 11/3/20 Presidential Election; Coronavirus Article 22 published on
10/14/20.
The twenty-third article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 10/24/20; United States
Reports Highest New Coronavirus Cases Ever; America Fails to Flatten the Active
Cases Bell Curve; Nearly 230K Americans Dead; Delusional President Trump Says
Coronavirus is “Going Away”; Worst 28 US States are Wyoming, Alaska, Rhode
Island, South Dakota, Montana, New Mexico, Idaho, Colorado, Utah, Arkansas,
Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Kentucky, Tennessee, North Carolina, Oklahoma,
Texas, Oregon, California, Massachusetts, Vermont, Arizona, Nebraska, Indiana,
Maryland, Iowa and Illinois; US Map Shows Hot Zone States Correlated to
Interstate Highway Routes; Worst Countries are USA, UK, Canada, Mexico,
Ireland, Russia, Belgium, Netherlands, Spain, Portugal, Italy, France, Germany,
Switzerland, Sweden, Poland, Czechia, Greece, Iran and Turkey; Virus Spreading
Rapidly in Europe, Western Asia (Eastern Bloc), Middle East and North America;
US Fiscal Stimulus Kabuki Theater Continues; US Presidential Election Only 10
Days Away; AMERICA EXCEEDS 100,000 NEW CASES PER DAY; Coronavirus Article 23
published on 10/24/20.
The twenty-fourth article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 11/5/20; America Exceeds
118,000 New Cases Per Day Highest Ever; US Hit with Third Wave; Europe Under
Lockdown; 39 Nations Including United States in COVID-19 Hell; US Presidential
Election Vote Count Continues with Biden Leading Trump; Johns-Hopkins Reports
America Daily New Cases at 122K Highest Ever; Whitehouse Chief of Staff Meadows
Tests Positive; Worldometer Reports America Daily New Cases at 133K Highest
Ever; Joe Biden Named 46th President of the United States; President Trump Refuses
to Concede; Global Cases Exceed 50 Million; US Cases Exceed 10 Million; Pfizer
Vaccine Successful in Human Trial; US Daily New Cases Tragically at 188K on
11/13/20; Coronavirus Article 24 published on 11/5/20.
The twenty-fifth article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 11/15/20; US Reports 188K
Daily New Cases Highest Ever; 40 US States Report Highest Daily New Cases Ever;
US Coronavirus Cases Top 11 Million and Deaths Exceed 251K; 29 Worst Countries
Include Russia, Ukraine, Indonesia, Turkey, United States, Spain, Italy,
Germany, Austria, Sweden, Hungary, UK, Canada, Mexico, Japan and South Korea;
Europe and North America in Various Lockdown Stages; Global Coronavirus Cases
Near 55 Million and Deaths Exceed 1.3 Million; President ‘Sore Loser’ Trump
Refuses to Concede to President-Elect Biden Almost 2 Weeks After Election
Threatening the Transition of Power and New US COVID-19 Response Plan; Medical
Staff Shortages; Americans Begin Hoarding Again; CORONAVIRUS 1-YEAR
ANNIVERSARY; US Coronavirus Cases Exceed 12 Million; US Reports 192K Daily New
Cases Highest Ever; US REPORTS OVER 204K DAILY NEW CASES HIGHEST EVER; US
DEATHS EXCEED 260K; US DAILY DEATHS EXCEED 2K;
Coronavirus Article 25 published on 11/15/20.
The Worldometer web site tracks the coronavirus (COVID-19) around
the world and its link is provided. Many charts in the coronavirus series of
articles are provided courtesy of Worldometer and annotated by Keystone. The
Worldometer data and Johns-Hopkins data are tracking each other well in recent
days with the Worldometer data typically ahead of the Johns-Hopkins data by a
couple-few days. The COVID Tracking Project is another excellent source of
information and data available for those wanting to study and understand the
virus in more detail.
The increase in daily new cases has to stop printing higher
highs and instead level off, and then hopefully decrease, before there is any
hope that the medical systems and personnel will receive relief about four
weeks in the future when the active cases chart flattens and rolls over. Realistically,
US healthcare services will likely have to be rationed going forward, and this
is already happening. Doctors may be faced with difficult decisions about who
lives, and who dies, in the weeks ahead, and they already are.
Countries such as New Zealand, Australia and Singapore are
the best examples on handling the pandemic properly. The nations on the list
below are experiencing the worst pandemic outbreaks currently (based on the
data which nations may or may not be reporting truthfully). The 28 worst global
hotspots, that have not yet flattened the active cases curve, are highlighted
below. The projected peaks in active cases dates (maximum stress on healthcare
workers and medical equipment and systems), based on the Keystone Model, are provided.
The nations towards the bottom of the list are in the worst shape.
Belgium (Second Wave) (there are
issues with the data)
12/17/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/14/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
12/20/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/17/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
Sweden (Second Wave) (limited data
hampers analysis)
12/30/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/27/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
12/31/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever in December)
1/28/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
1/1/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases for second wave)
1/12/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
1/1/21 New Case Peak Date
1/29/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
Chile (Second Wave Begins) (there
are issues with the data set)
1/2/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases for second wave 1/1 and 1/2/21)
1/13/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
1/3/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
1/31/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
1/3/21 New Case Peak Date
1/31/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
1/4/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever 9/23/20 and 1/4/21)
1/15/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
1/6/21
New Case Peak Date
1/17/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days; may have peaked)
1/6/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases for third wave)
1/17/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
1/6/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases for second wave are 1/5 and 1/6/21)
1/17/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
1/6/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
1/17/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
1/6/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever 1/5 and 1/6/21)
1/17/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
Czechia (Third Wave)
1/6/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases for third wave)
1/17/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
1/6/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
1/17/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
1/6/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
2/3/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
1/6/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
2/3/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
1/6/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
2/3/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
1/6/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases for third wave 12/30/20 and 1/6/21)
2/3/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
1/6/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
2/3/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
1/6/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
2/3/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
1/7/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases for this new third wave)
2/4/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
1/7/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
1/18/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
1/7/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
1/18/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
1/7/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
2/4/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
1/7/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever at 261K!!!)
2/4/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
Infections in Indonesia, Malaysia and Japan are worsening. South Korea’s active case curve tops out so it was removed from the list and the country may be on the mend. The Middle East countries are under siege again including Bahrain, UAE, Egypt and Israel.
There is a huge spike in daily new cases in Ireland and the
active cases curve goes straight vertical. Ireland is in big trouble. The UK
B117 stain is now likely attacking Ireland. The UK, France and Spain continue
sinking deeper into the coronavirus quagmire. The UK begins imposing mandatory
covid tests for travelers.
Eastern Europe will not have a chance to flatten its active
cases curve until late January early February. The new B117 strain may be moving
from east to west across Europe. Italy, ramp up your testing for the new
variant. Ditto Switzerland, Austria, Slovenia, Croatia and Germany. The
Deutschland was removed from the list since it has rolled its active cases
curve over and is headed on the right track. Czechia cannot catch a break it is
in the covid soup week after week and just reported another record high in
daily cases. Maybe the B117 strain is already hanging around central Europe?
Panama takes a turn for the worse. North America remains in
trouble. The US, Canada and Mexico are battling to reduce the daily cases but
the increase in infections now are likely due to the Christmas and New Year’s
parties. The United States is at the bottom of the list as compared to all
nations on earth. Ditto Japan, Malaysia and Indonesia. Canada reports 11,383
daily new cases on 1/3/21 the highest ever. 257 Canucks die on 12/29/20 the
deadliest day of the pandemic. The covid news is sad everywhere you look.
The troubled US states are highlighted below with their
projections on when the active cases curve will peak-out (max strain on
healthcare system) as per the Keystone Model. 38 US states have failed to
flatten the active cases bell curve or they had successfully flattened the
curve only to fall back into covid Hell again as new cases and then active
cases rise with new waves.
These 12 states have rolled their active cases curve over to
form, or start forming, the bell shape, and verify that the virus is being defeated;
North Dakota, Montana, Wyoming, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nebraska, Illinois, Kansas,
Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. However, at least one-half or
more of these states will worsen in the coming days. The active cases curves
are on the verge of moving higher to begin new waves. The US is in worse shape
this week than a week ago.
Pennsylvania succeeds in rolling-over its active cases curve
but the daily new cases may be spiking again which would then lead to more
active cases. It is suspicious that the active cases curve would roll over for
the Keystone State perhaps it has to do with data-reporting during the
holidays. Oddly, Pennsylvania turns its active cases curve lower, which is
great news, but it occurs when 373 Pennsylvanians die on 1/6/21 the deadliest
day ever. Also, the new UK variant B117 is discovered in the Keystone State.
Ohio is similar with the highest daily cases ever on 1/2/21
but the active cases curve moves lower. This behavior is incorrect and the
active cases curves would be expected to give rise to the next waves in the
days ahead (conditions will worsen).
The worst 38 states are listed below. The absolute worst are
at the bottom of the list since their daily new cases are the highest ever
yesterday and today and hopes of flattening the active cases curve is a month
or more out into the future. An increase in new cases leads to higher active
cases and hospitalizations which then leads to more deaths. January and February
are not going to be a pretty picture and several hospitals may buckle under the
pressure.
Missouri
11/14/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 11/10 and 11/14/20)
12/12/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (curve continues higher)
11/19/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
12/17/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (chart trying to flatten)
12/3/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever occur in November and early December)
12/31/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (curve continues higher)
12/4/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/1/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
12/5/20 New Case Peak Date (new
cases beginning to rise again)
1/1/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve continues higher)
12/7/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/4/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve continues higher)
12/9/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/6/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
12/16/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/13/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
12/16/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 12/13 and 12/16/20)
1/13/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
12/27/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/24/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
12/28/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
1/25/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
1/1/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever 12/4/20 and 1/1/21)
1/29/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
1/1/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever12/31/20 and 1/1/21)
1/29/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
1/1/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
1/29/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
1/2/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever 1/1 and 1/2/21)
1/30/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
1/2/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
1/30/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
1/2/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
1/30/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
1/2/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever 12/5/20 and 1/2/21)
1/30/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
1/3/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
1/31/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
1/3/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases for third wave)
1/31/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
1/4/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases for second wave)
2/1/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
1/5/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever 1/1 and 1/5/21)
2/2/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
1/5/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
2/2/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
1/5/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
2/2/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
1/6/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
2/3/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
1/6/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever 12/4 and 1/6/21)
2/3/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
1/6/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
2/3/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
1/7/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever 12/12/20 and 1/7/21)
2/4/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
1/7/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
2/4/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
1/7/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
1/11/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
1/7/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever 8/31/20, 9/2/20 and 1/7/21)
2/4/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
1/7/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
2/4/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (data is choppy and messy)
1/7/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever 1/6 and 1/7/21)
2/4/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
1/7/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever 1/1 and 1/7/21)
2/4/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
1/7/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever 12/31/20 and 1/7/21)
2/4/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date
New York (Second Wave)
1/7/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
2/4/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date
New Jersey (Second Wave)
1/7/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever 12/6/20 and 1/7/21)
1/3/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
1/7/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever)
2/4/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
26 states above report the highest number of daily new cases ever in 2021. Over one-half the states are experiencing after-holiday spike highs in new cases in January. This sets up a terrible path ahead. New York City has the highest hospitalizations since May. Los Angeles County, California, an epicenter of the latest outbreak reports 258 people dead today and 11.8K new cases. Everyday is a new record in Los Angeles County where someone is dying of covid every 8 minutes.
The data for many states show huge spikes yesterday and
today with the daily new cases. It is a no-brainer to surmise that the impact
from the Christmas and New Year’s holiday parties is beginning. The big spikes
in infections are occurring starting 11 and 12 days after Christmas and there
has been a noticeable rise in cases over the last three days so that is an 8 to
12 day range. Travelers milled through airports and gas stations, and ate at
greasy spoons, across America starting a couple days prior to Christmas, thus,
the incubation period of the COVID-19 infection is about 8 to 14 days.
Taking it further, and although the entire week from
Christmas to New Year’s is party time, there would be an expectation that a
huge spike in new infections (daily new cases) will occur between 1/8/21 and
1/14/21 especially on 1/12/21 and 1/13/21 (based on New Year’s Eve parties).
January is going to be an ugly month and it is already setting terrible
records. This is bad. Colorado crosses 5K total deaths a sad milestone.
The states at the bottom of the list are the worst. New York
hospitals are about to get hit hard over the next month. New York reports 261
deaths today the most since early May. Maybe Cuomo’s leadership book will help
right the ship? Quick, run down to the local bookstore to the bargain bin area
and there should be a few copies on the bottom shelf.
Two Americans are dying every minute from coronavirus. The
pandemic is spiraling out of control and the United States is leaderless.
America will likely not be able to flatten the active cases curve until early
February. Even worse, this forecast is pushed forward if the US daily new cases
keep printing new highs. We’re screwed. The coronavirus pandemic in 2021 is
going to look a lot like 2020.
The worst states based on total cases are California, Texas,
Florida, New York and Illinois. The best states (least covid cases) are
Vermont, Hawaii, Maine, Wyoming and Alaska. 10 states have over 10K deaths. The
worst states for deaths are New York, Texas, California, Florida and New
Jersey.
The United States will probably be going into covid panic
mode just as President-elect Biden is sworn into office on 1/20/21. President
Trump may be ousted from office before then after the Capitol Hill Riot on
1/6/21 which adds a whole new dimension to the pandemic. At this point, most
Americans simply want 1/20/21 to arrive to put Biden in and send Trump packing.
The craziness is past its expiration date and it is time to move on. Maybe the
country can cool down politically in the back half of the month, however,
coronavirus will definitely be heating up.
The US hospital system is in trouble and things will get
worse during January. If you have a heart attack in January or February, or
twist your ankle after stepping on a Lego, it may be difficult to receive quick
care. It is already happening. Care rationing. Medics and doctors are triaging the
patients via smartphones, video conferencing and computers and deciding who
will be transported to the hospital. If covid was not raging, all the patients
would be brought in to the hospital. King Trump failed miserably at handling
the pandemic. Can Sleepy Joe Biden do any better?
Newly elected Kansas representative Jake LaTurner tests
positive for covid. Those politicians need to stop walking around and licking
doorknobs.
Doctors are discovering that two rheumatoid Arthritis drugs
may help battle covid for seriously ill patients. Sarilumab and tocilizumab may
reduce the risk of death by up to 24% for the covid patients in intensive care.
Amazon is selling an at-home COVID-19 saliva test kit. The
tests cost $110 so it is only an option for the upper middle class and wealthy.
America is the land of the have’s and have not’s. It is an abomination that the
US government cannot buy zinc and vitamin D-3 tablets in bulk and hand them out
in the inner cities, reservations, rural poor areas and prisons so these folks
can develop and maintain a strong immune system. It is sickening that the
public is never educated on such matters either. Doctors want you to take
prescription drugs since you have to return to the office every 4 or 6 weeks
and ka-ching, easy money for 5 minutes work; the American medical system in
action.
The vaccine hesitancy issue continues. In New York, 30% of
healthcare workers do not want to take the shot. That’s nothing. A recent poll
shows 50% of California healthcare workers are balking at taking the vaccine.
Some hospitals are offering monetary incentives to the employees to take the
shot. Of course they are. They need the doctors, nurses and medics that are in
short supply. The hospitals know it will pay back many times over if they can
keep the workers healthy and happy and handling the huge influx of covid
patients. Attention nurses; hold out until management screams, squeeze them
hard, make them squeal, make them pay. Tell them to go get money off of big
pharma and give it to you as an incentive for the shot. Tell them ‘no ticky, no
laundry’.
According to vaccine data between 12/14/20 and 12/23/20, 21
people experienced allergic shock from the vaccine; a couple dozen. The
healthcare workers are trying to ramp up the vaccinations. HHS Secretary Azar
receives the Captain Obvious award for proclaiming that everyone should focus
on administering the inoculations. Thanks for your input now go back to sleep.
The CVS drug store chain says they were only informed about
vaccine deliveries one week before they were sent. Good riddance to the
Trumpster. The pandemic is a mess. Donnie could not manage himself out of a paper
bag. As mentioned above, can Sleepy Joe do a better job at handling the coronavirus
pandemic?
Biden promises to administer 100 million vaccinations in the
first 100 days; that is 1 million shots per day. No, not him directly. His
hands are too shaky. When he first mentioned this goal a month or more ago, it
was tossed out as a campaign slogan line but Biden was smart enough to quickly
stress that it is 100 million shots and not 100 million people since this
equates to 200 million shots. The 100 million vaccinations in 100 days is
doable. That would begin 1/20/21 and end 4/1/21; April Fool’s Day. You have to
have goals in life so America will see what Biden got. Come April, will Biden
be known as a virile covid dragon slayer, or, a dithering fool? The vaccine progress map and data will assess the path ahead.
Note Added Friday, 1/8/21: The Whitehouse task force says a new variant is discovered even more contagious than the UK variant. The faster spread is verified by the US state data above showing record daily cases. January will be tough. This initial surge is from Christmas and the New Year's party surge will follow in a few days. Pfizer says the vaccine will be effective on the new variants. The US stock market continues to print new all-time record highs. Traders believe that when the democrats take power, they will turn on the easy-money spigots so stocks will leap higher. Biden plans to provide more funding for vaccines and covid relief. The rumor mill is saying that future individual stimulus checks above $2,000 are on the table and stocks catapult higher. The S&P 500 is at the highest number in history at 3825. Ditto the Dow at 31098. Humorously, maybe if the virus spread even faster, stocks would accelerate even higher. The US Monthly Jobs Report loses 140K jobs missing expectations and is the first negative report since April. During the pandemic, the 30 million have's in America never missed a beat over the last year, working from home and banking paychecks, while the 300 million have not's struggle by each week trying to make ends meet.
Note Added Saturday Morning, 1/9/21: Eight US states have identified the new UK variant B117 including California, Colorado, Texas, Georgia, Florida, New York, Pennsylvania and Connecticut. Fauci says the new more-contagious virus is "more widespread in the United State than we are currently detecting it to be." President-elect Biden is considering a plan to release as much vaccine as possible and stick as many arms as possible and hope that the second dose becomes available. Doctors and scientists are mixed some wanting to follow the protocol with two shots for each person spaced either 3 or 4 weeks apart. In a once in 102-year pandemic, extraordinary times may call for extraordinary decisions. Biden may be on the right path to simply flood the public with as many vaccinations as possible but to do that there must be healthcare workers available to administer the shots. Keystone has been practicing giving oranges shots but has concluded that people would not want to be on the receiving end of such amateur attempts. The idea about recruiting dentists to provide shots is a good idea. The pharmacists are also key. Maybe medical and nursing school students can be pushed ahead to the class that teaches them to administer shots. Train them and send them out. The pandemic should be all hands on deck for months instead, everyone goes on about living not concerned about COVID-19 until they wake up with a cough.
Note Added Saturday Afternoon, 1/9/21: Arizona is taking a turn for the worse if that is possible. Hospitals have been at capacity for the last month. There is no statewide mask mandate in Arizona. A weary healthcare worker appears on television and says the outlook for Arizona is "grim." California is setting up temporary morgues. That is a nice way of saying they are lining-up 88 refrigerator trucks in different hospital parking lots and they are not storing salami and wedding cakes; the trucks are storing human bodies because the morgues no longer have space in their body compartments and cold rooms. The coronavirus pandemic rages on and is the worst it has ever been. Over 380K Americans are dead from covid on Trump's watch. On Friday, 1/8/21, the US reports 308K daily new cases. Lord Help Us. After writing about the pandemic for a year, it is easy to become numb to the numbers and sadness, but that 308K number is jaw-dropping and scary. It is frightening what will be coming at America in the coming days. US deaths from covid are running over 4K per day. Trump failed miserably at handling the pandemic; his strategy was simply hoping that it would go away. It didn't and a massive coronavirus tidal wave is now on top of us casting a dark shadow upon the land and about to smack hard in January and February. It will be ugly!! Get ready for it!!
Note Added Sunday Morning, 1/10/21: FDA Commissioner Hahn is instructing states to begin distributing vaccinations faster to lower-priority groups. Officials are looking for ways to speed-up the vaccine distribution since the program is not living up to the promises. Los Angeles County in California reports over 1,000 covid deaths in the last four days. GLOBAL CORONAVIRUS CASES EXCEED 90 MILLION. 1.94 million earthlings are dead from China's covid disease. The UK exceeds 3 million total cases and exceeds 80K total deaths. Five countries have over 3 million total COVID-19 cases; USA (22.7), India (10.5), Brazil (8.1), Russia (3.4) and UK (3.0). China inflicted the pain, misery and death on these five countries. Pope Francis plans to receive the vaccine in a few days and encourages all people to take the shot as an "ethical duty." The Pope does not understand the vaccine deniers. Some of the vaccines are connected to stem cells from aborted fetuses, but the church says this is a small portion of the research and vaccine technology so they choose to ignore it. Brazil appears to be slipping-away into bigtime covid trouble. Brazil reports 87,134 daily new cases the highest ever on 1/7/21 and its active cases curve is starting to turn higher. Things may get really ugly in Brazil in Q1 (Jan-Feb-Mar). Russia may be at its peak on the active cases curve with some flattening ahead and a potential roll over (conditions are improving very slightly). The Ruskies have paid a high price over the last few months. The United States is heading into a bad place. Total coronavirus cases are approaching 23 million and over 381K Americans are dead. The death number is numbing; 381,480 souls. Most Americans do not care about covid until it afflicts a family member, or relative, or, themselves.
Note Added Sunday Evening, 1/10/21: The new UK strain B117 is 70% more transmissible. The UK reports over 68K daily new cases and 1,325 deaths on 1/8/21. The pandemic is out of control in London and across the UK. The trip to Stonehenge is delayed. Ireland reports 8,227 daily new cases on 1/8/21. The pandemic has thrown the UK into lockdown. There are not enough ICU beds. This trouble is headed for the United States but Americans remain oblivious instead focused on stuffing the last of the turkey leftovers and chocolate chip cookies into their pie-holes. Currently, about 1% of the US cases are the new B117 strain but scientists and doctors, such as Dr Jha, say the B117 strain may account for 50% of the infections by mid-March. Fortunately, so far, the vaccines are found effective against B117. Israel is carrying out a robust vaccination program but its daily cases remain elevated and the active cases curve continues higher with no signs of flattening.
Note Added Monday Morning, 1/11/21: 22.1 million doses are delivered to US states with 8.0 million vaccinations given; 36%. Only one-third of the vaccines delivered have been shot in people's arms. Europe is struggling with its vaccination program and it does not provide a good look in France where Macron will want to be reelected. 42 nations around the world have administered 25 million vaccine doses. The public does not understand that even after one vaccine shot, the patient needs to keep wearing a mask and following the covid protocols. Also, even after the second shot, the masks and social distancing stuff continues. It is not until herd immunity is achieved when society returns to normal and the mask mandates disappear. Unfortunately, the US will be lucky to be there in the Fall or by Thanksgiving. The virus may simply start to burn itself out by then as viruses are prone to do; this would be a good outcome. Japan identifies a new virus strain slightly different than the UK's B117 and South Africa's 501YV2 (the identification letters and numbers are stated in a simple form). The Japan variant is associated with the B.1.1.248 strain (it will be written as B11248 for simplicity). Japan declares a state of emergency in Tokyo. Japanese drugmaker Chugai's stock explodes +13% higher in trading on news that the UK finds its arthritis drug tocilizumab effective in treating covid patients. The virus is spreading in three different areas of China but the case numbers remain small and the communists appear to be handling the situations (but you cannot trust the news from there).
Note Added Monday Afternoon, 1/11/21, at 1:50 PM EST: President-elect Biden receives his second vaccination. The CCP is allowing WHO to enter Wuhan and investigate the origination of the virus but it is already a joke. The filthy Chinese communists are playing their typical games. China will be hiding records and not showing original work on the virus. The handlers that report back to the CCP will be looking over the investigator's shoulders every step of the way. Come on now. You cannot trust any information from the Chinese communist state. It's all propaganda all the time.
Note Added Tuesday Afternoon, 1/12/21: Germany may have to extend its lockdown for 10 more weeks! Wow. That is 2-1/2 months! To help kick the vaccine rollout into a higher gear, the US is now opening up vaccines to folks over 65 years old. Also anyone with comorbidities such as diabetes. The US will require inbound travelers to present proof of a negative covid case. This demand will hurt the airlines. 29 million vaccine doses are distributed to 43 countries. 25.5 million doses are distributed across all the states in America and 9.3 million are in arms; 36.5%. One-third of the doses delivered across the US are shot in peoples arms, the other two-thirds doses are sitting in freezers and cold storage waiting for arms. Healthcare workers are exhausted and now they have to provide vaccinations as well. The drug chains such as CVS, Walmart and others will be a big help with the vaccination program. The pharmacists and pharmacist assistants have extensive experience at sticking people with flu and tetanus shots so they are good to go, however, there is a problem. People must wait for 15 to 20 minutes after the shot to make sure there are no adverse reactions. Typically, the pharmacies have a little room, a booth, where they provide a shot and sent you on your way. The pharmacies are not equipped to have the people hang out there for a while and if someone went into allergic shock that is a whole new kettle of fish. This explains part of the slow rollout but America should have been sorting these problems out all these months. The pandemic has suffered from the lack of leadership from the start. Donnie was on the golf course. Mass vaccination sites may be a good approach and a few cities are adopting this approach. Move those vaccines off the shelves, they are not doing any good sitting there collecting dust. Oh, be quiet, hush-up, everyone is doing the best they can.
Note Added Tuesday Evening, 1/12/21: Dr Fauci says the South Africa strain 501YV2 is worrying scientists because the vaccine may be slightly less effective. The strain numbers used in the text such as B117 and 501YV2 are simplified. Reference detailed scientific papers on coronavirus if you are of a more scientific mind. The medical community is always in a tizzy over political correctness and wants to steer people away from calling the virus the China Flu. Screw that. The 1918 pandemic was the Spanish Flu. This is the China Flu, or Wuhan Flu, if you prefer. People are smart and mature enough to know that no offense is ever directed at the people due to a flu name. Nation leaders push these stupid narratives making people feel bad about trivial things. It is a form of control. Forget that political correctness stuff. Simply treat others the way you want to be treated. If the virus started in the US, it would be called the America Flu. Everyone needs to grow up although this grotesque societal behavior is fully expected at the end of a multi-decade cycle a la Kondratiev. As the months and few years forward play out, the silliness will give way to seriousness and people will learn empathy and compassion again. Operation Warp Speed chief Dr Moncef Slaoui steps down but will remain for 30 days to help the Biden team transition. 4,491 AMERICANS DIE FROM COVID TODAY THE DEADLIEST DAY EVER.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 1/13/21: Ontario, Canada, issues a stay at home order as its hospitals are nearing capacity. France faces headwinds in its battle against covid since one-half of the public is skeptical of vaccines. The US has its share of anti-vaccer's but France is at a whole new level of skepticism. The UK is having some minor success at beating back covid and the country tells its citizens a crackdown may be coming against those breaking the lockdown rules. China's Sinovac Biotech vaccine CoronaVac is only about 50% effective against the virus after initial studies showed 78% and upwards of 95% effectiveness. Of course it is less effective. The lying Chinese said it was over 90% now they have to come clean after it is in use in Brazil and Indonesia. The CCP cannot be trusted. Step right up. Get shot with a Chinese vaccine, made by the same communist country that unleashed the coronavirus bioterrorism upon the planet. Don't be shy. Roll up that sleeve for President Xi and let him inject you with animal proteins and tracers.
Note Added Wednesday Afternoon, 1/13/21: President Donald Trump is impeached by the House of Representatives for the second time within one year for "incitement of insurrection." The Capitol Hill Riot aftermath continues creating chaos, confusion and tension in America. The government continues rounding-up and arresting the rioters from that fateful day one week ago. Germany's economy contracts due to the lockdowns. Global coronavirus cases are approaching 93 million with almost 2 million deaths. The USA is nearing 394K deaths. Yesterday, 1/12/12, is the deadliest day ever with 4,491 Americans perishing from covid. 4,098 die today. Chatter about making vaccines mandatory continues around the world. The travel industry is weighing mandatory testing requirements versus mandatory vaccines as rules for future travelers. Instead of "your papers, please," it will be, "your proof of vaccination, please." Is the mark of the beast manifesting?
Note Added Thursday, 1/14/21: China reports the first coronavirus death in 8 months. Of course there has been other deaths and covid illnesses but the filthy lying CCP controls the news flow out of the communist nation. The death is in Hebei province which is an area of northern China that encompasses Beijing. Perhaps the Western spies inside China are providing some virus payback? 4,365 people have died in China over the last year but that number is more likely at least four or five times higher. The WHO investigators arrive in China to explore the origins of coronavirus one year after the fact. The filthy CCP would not let investigators into China to research the debacle. It is more games by the communists so do not hold your breath for a revelation concerning COVID-19's origin. As they say in Brooklyn, "Good luck wit dat." A Chinese spokesmen said two weeks ago the virus did not originate from the Wuhan animal market. The Chinese population wants to continue the markets, it is part of their culture, which are unfortunately virus and disease-spreading markets. The CCP is making this statement as justification to continue the markets and keep the people in check. China promised to eliminate the filthy cesspool animal markets years ago and instead do nothing despite major viruses originating at these animal markets. The lying Chinese government (CCP) will always tell you they will do something but 20 years will go by without progress. This is the commie game.
Note Added Friday Morning, 1/15/21, at 8:00 AM EST: Two top executives at Sinopharm resign they say due to personal reasons. This is the state-owned Chinese pharma company developing a vaccine they said was 78% or more effective and it turns out to be far lower. Of course they knew; they are lying Chinese always blowing smoke up your butt. The WHO has not approved any Chinese vaccines as yet from Sinopharm or Siniovac another Chinese company. The world will have to watch them closely and scrutinize what they place inside the vaccines. You cannot trust a communist; they will slit your throat in the middle of the night. People thinking that the WHO will uncover a revelation in the origination of the coronavirus are delusional. It is one year after the fact and many regions, including the infamous animal market, have been meticulously scrubbed-down. The WHO team is hand-picked and every one of them has taken Chinese money for research or other reasons. Chinese scientists have disappeared. What a corrupt world every where you look. Do you actually think WHO is going to announce anything worthwhile. WHO lays in bed with Xi each day and has covered-up for the dirtbag dictator. Good on the Aussie's that stood up to the communists demanding an investigation immediately and doubting China's story about a potential accidental release. China cannot keep its story straight nowadays a couple weeks ago unequivocally saying the outbreak is not associated with the animal market. Probably just more lies from the liars. Australia pays the price for standing up to red China since the communists have greatly cut imports of iron ore, coal and wine. The Chinese citizens may have something to say about their favorite vino becoming unavailable. How else can they temporarily escape from their daily struggle? The opium dens are gone.
Note Added Friday Morning, 1/15/21, at 10:15 AM EST: Pfizer delivers bad new for Europe telling the continent that vaccine deliveries will be delayed; there are production problems. US stocks are tanking down -1% and taking on a somber mood before the weekend despite promises of more monetary and fiscal stimulus. GLOBAL DEATHS HIT 2 MILLION A TRAGIC MILESTONE. More people have died of COVID-19 over the last year, 2,005,951 souls, than tuberculosis and malaria combined. 93.7 million earthlings have been infected iwth covid. Germany crosses above 2 million covid cases a terrible milestone and becomes the tenth company in this infamous club joining Spain, Italy, Turkey, France, UK, Russia, Brazil, India and the USA. This is where all the bodies are buried. The gravediggers and undertakers are busier than one-armed paper-hangers. US covid deaths are over 398K and should hit 400K at anytime. The regular flu can claim up to as many as 60K lives each year in America, even 65K in a very bad year, so subtracting that off the totals is still 335K dead, and lets use two flu seasons which would be a big maximum of 165K which did not happen, but that would still result in 235K covid deaths. COVID-19 is killing people any way you slice it. Political parties will fight over the coronavirus statistics for the next couple years. The CDC says 90K more people may die over the next three weeks. The good news keeps on coming (sarcasm). Lawmakers, even Cuomo in New York, are beginning to realize that if you continue lockdowns, there will be nothing left. Three things need to happen; one, the US needs more pop-up vaccination sites and a core amount of people dedicated to giving shots, two, the vaccine supply needs increased, and three, the public will have to be better educated to decrease vaccine hesitancy. Some people will never be convinced, such as this writer that has never had a flu shot or ever taken an antibiotic, but many people simply have sincere questions they want answered before they roll up their sleeve for a vaccine. The medical community would be wise to nurture these souls, which will likely take the vaccine after their questions are answered, and not worry so much about the anti-vaccer crowd. The Dollar General stores are offering four hours pay as an incentive to employees to take the vaccine. Come on now, you cheap bastards. At least Dollar General deserves credit for offering something to the folks carrying America on their backs while only receiving peanuts, but four times a $10 or $15 per hour wage is a big $50 if they are lucky. Couldn't you jackasses just give them a hundo instead of using the cryptic formula to cover-up your cheapness? And all you other companies should take a lesson from Dollar General. At least they are showing some respect to their workers. Stores need to give their loyal and hard-working clerks and shelf-stocker's one or two hundo to take the shot. Don't be cheap. They should be paid covid hazard pay and unions would fight for that, but unions have been systematically rubbed-out since the 1980's. Coronavirus is changing the world.
Note Added Friday Afternoon, 1/15/21, at 12:00 PM EST: Shamefully, the Trump administration says the vaccine reserve doses, that were supposed to be stored by the government for the second shots, do not exist. Say what!? Unbelievable. HHS Secretary Azar performs a semantics song and dance saying those 'reserve' doses were released to speed up the vaccination program and that the manufacturers can supply the vaccine doses to handle the second shots. Azar is an incompetent. The dude needs fired. The pandemic is destroying the country and the bozo running the vaccine show cannot even give you an accurate count of the doses. It is ridiculous. Maybe if Trump was not crying like a baby after the election and instead doing his job, this would not have happened. States continue complaining that they are not receiving the vaccine doses they are told they would receive. Azar keeps tap-dancing. Oregon Governor Kate Brown proclaims that the federal government has committed a "deception at a national scale." Biden is inheriting a mess. The CDC says the new, more contagious B117 strain could be the dominant strain in the United States by March. There are only about 100 cases of the new strain identified so far in the US but medical folks say the numbers are far higher and increasing exponentially. The more contagious strain doubles its proportion each week so if it is 5% of the cases one week, the next week it is 10% of the cases the week after that it is 20% and so forth.
Note Added Friday Evening, 1/15/21, at 12:00 PM EST: President-elect Biden speaks about the pandemic and the pledge to provide 100 million vaccinations in the first 100 days. He calls it a formidable task but that is only to set the stage so when it occurs he will stand on a soap box and proclaim his success. Politics is Hollywood acting for the ugly people. The inconsistencies in the government's directions create the pandemic chaos and confusion. Since Trump would not coordinate and organize the pandemic on a federal level, the states continue figuring out everything on their own, 50 states inventing 50 different figurative wheels. People are told to wear a mask into a restaurant but they can take it off when eating. It makes no sense. Or how about people now dining outside, since lockdown measures prohibit indoor dining at restaurants, in the cold weather, inside tents with heaters, so they are actually dining inside!! It makes you laugh out loud, then cry. Gatherings are limited to a few people or in some locations prohibited. If a group of people got together, wearing masks and using hand sanitizer and such, and staying far away from each other, and hanging-out for a few hours, what on earth is wrong with that? Nothing. Ignore the lunacy and instead follow your common sense. Make sure you take, at a minimum, vitamin D-3 and zinc each day to keep your immune system strong. Defense (before you or your family gets infected with covid) is the best offense. The high death rates are for those over that 69-70 year old age bracket. If the pandemic had central leadership, an edict could come down that anyone retired or older, stay home to ever extent possible. Those that are not retired, return to work and school but obeying all the mask and social distancing guidelines as best you can. Now that we know the enemy, we can develop a game plan. The only worry, and it is a huge one, under this scenario, is that the hospitals could be overrun with more patients. Okay, jackasses, you only had months to install temporary hospital shelters and units; this is a situation that appears manageable. It is better to get the economy rolling again to also help people's mental health. Kids need to be in school so both spouses can work again. But there is one more snag. It is fine and dandy to have the extra field hospital units in place in the hot zones and equipped with PPE and ventilators, however, who is there to man them? Maybe the doctors and nurses, that are collapsing from exhaustion, can man the expanded units, after they fill-in administering vaccinations, in their spare time. There are huge demands on the healthcare workers; they should be receiving elevated covid pay or at least when it is over go back and pay them a bonus. If not, your company sucks. Friday's data is typically the worst of the week so perhaps that will provide a reprieve from this escalating coronavirus pandemic. If the data is worse, we are screwed. The numbers should be available tomorrow morning. The lower one-fifth of the United States, the poorest folks, are suffering though 20%+ unemployment, approaching Great Depression levels, while the top one-fifth of America, the upper middle class and wealthy elite, enjoy a 5% unemployment rate and that is because the folks not working are rich and do not feel like it right now. This is the New Gilded Age, a la the 1920's; the land of the have's and have not's. The people low on the totem pole are screwed again watching the elite privileged class dance with glee. Once you do not have much to lose, or anything to lose, you stop caring. Some people become violent like 1/6/21.
Note Added Saturday Morning, 1/16/21, at 1:00 AM EST: HHS Secretary Azar resigns saying his last day will be 1/20/21. Don't let the door hit you, incompetent. Comically, in the resignation letter, Azar calls out Trump for the Capitol Hill Riot saying it tarnished the president's legacy (and by default himself). The coronavirus pandemic is Trump's Waterloo; the orange one simply did not have the skills to handle COVID-19 even though he wanted a FDR or Churchill type moment for his presidency. It was there for him on a silver platter but he failed miserably. Perhaps the moment will be seized by Sleepy Joe Biden? Oh no. THE UNITED STATES REPORTS OVER 400K DEATHS FROM CORONAVIRUS (COVID-19) OVER THE LAST YEAR. 401,856 AMERICANS HAVE LOST THEIR LIVES. This is seven NFL (American football) stadiums full of dead people. Dear God! New York is calling people to cancel vaccination appointments since they are out of vaccine. Where's Donnie? Bueller? This covid tragedy is Trump's legacy. Over 24 million Americans have been infected with covid. Considering the 330 million population, 7.3% of the US (1 in every 14 people) have been infected with covid during Trump's term. 20 million Americans were supposed to be vaccinated by the end of the year 2020 and we have only vaccinated 12 million as of mid-January. Complete incompetence. Fauci is asked about the lack of vaccine on reserve and he says, "It was a is understanding." Come on, dude, can't you come up with something better than that? Fauci is telling folks there is 'nothing to see here, move along, move along'. Since Fauci does not denounce Azar for the screw-up, it tells you that they are all complicit in the matter. Fauci likely knew Azar was talking rosy talk about vaccine doses on reserve but in truth there weren't any does in storage. No wonder the pandemic remains a chaotic mess and people do not know what to believe.
Note Added Saturday Afternoon, 1/16/21, at 2:50 PM EST: The death numbers continue higher. 403,256 AMERICANS ARE DEAD FROM COVID OVER THE LAST YEAR. The media will focus on the 400K milestone this weekend and early in the week ahead. A common refrain heard among regular folks talking these days is, "They're droppin' like flies."
Note Added Saturday Afternoon, 1/16/21, at 3:01 PM EST: 404,018 AMERICANS ARE DEAD FROM COVID OVER THE LAST YEAR.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 1/17/21, at 2:45 AM EST: 405,261 AMERICANS ARE DEAD FROM COVID OVER THE LAST YEAR. California is at nearly 3 million total cases with Los Angeles County exceeding 1 million cases. Five states are over 1 million cases including Illinois, New York, Florida, Texas and California. Several US states have more covid cases than other nations.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.