Thursday, October 15, 2020

The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 10/14/20; America Fails to Flatten the Curve and Begins Third Wave Higher; Nearly 222,000 Americans Dead; President Trump Recovers; Vaccine and Antibody Trials Hit Snags; 44 US States Report Record New Cases Including the Dakota’s, Ohio, New Mexico, Kentucky, Iowa, Idaho, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Texas, Massachusetts, Washington, Michigan, Tennessee, Kansas, Connecticut and Alaska; 38 Countries Report Record New Cases Including US, Canada, Germany, Italy, France, Spain, Portugal, Netherlands, Finland, Czechia, Poland, Switzerland, Ukraine, Iran and UAE; Europe Sinking into COVID-19 Hell; Bubonic Plague Redux Map; US Fiscal Stimulus Appears Unlikely Before the 11/3/20 Presidential Election; Coronavirus Article 22








 

By K E Stone (Keystone)

America blows it, again, failing to flatten the coronavirus (COVID-19) active cases bell curve chart. Today, Wednesday, 10/14/20, the United States is once again in a world of sh*t. 

For the US active cases chart shown above, the data is blowing out higher, which is a bad thing, and the bell curve shape fails to develop. Coronavirus is a lingering dark cloud hanging over America into the holiday season. The COVID-19 pandemic in the US is in a third pulse of the initial wave, or third surge, or a third wave, if you prefer. Each time the active cases curve tries to flatten and roll over, Americans become lax and begin partying and socializing more and bang; the virus spreads again.

The orange dashes in the chart show where America blew it; seven times in all so far. For the last six weeks, the curve flattened but instead of rolling over to the downside it now sadly ticks higher again. The key time was late May early June. If Trump would have not been downplaying the virus, by his own admission, and instead told the American people to remain hunkered down through Memorial Day, for only another couple weeks, the year would have evolved far differently (for the better).

The virus could have been nipped in the bud back then, just as it was for so many other nations, but instead Americans went to the beaches to party on the Memorial Day holiday weekend. The parties, protests, riots, campaign rallies, concerts and other large events send the active cases curve higher. Asian nations are more skilled at handling viruses since they have been dealing with outbreaks for the last couple decades. America is floundering. US citizens enjoy freedom and ease of movement around the nation and generally do not embrace mask-wearing.

The same failures in flattening the curve repeat over and over. There is an uptick in cases after the Independence Day holiday on July 4th and the current uptick in the active cases chart occurs due to the Labor Day parties, people returning to sports events, campaign rallies, large events, businesses reopening and young people returning to schools and universities. The Sturgis motorcycle rally in South Dakota in August spreads the virus. The Dakota’s report the highest number of new cases ever. The protests, riots and social unrest in the US this year also contributes to the spread of the virus.

Trump’s campaign rallies also spread the virus. In June, at the Tulsa, Oklahoma, event, former presidential candidate and Trump confidant Herman Cain likely contracted covid. He was admitted to the hospital 11 days later, fought the good fight for about a month, then croaked. The Rose Garden superspreader event on 9/26/20 results in a dozen infections and counting. Trump likely caught covid during an event. Trump, lagging in the polls against Biden, continues with the rallies since he is trying to push a big voter turnout for republicans.

Many attendees at the Trump events do not wear masks or practice social distancing resulting in more covid spread. Trump’s insistence on holding the rallies and bringing people together to become sick are hurting him in the polls especially among the senior population. Older folks are worried about contracting the virus and many view Trump’s rallies as irresponsible and uncaring towards the attendees. At the latest campaign rally event at an airport hangar, Trump brags that he is immune to coronavirus as he awkwardly dances to the techno-beat of the YMCA disco song.

The latest peak in the active cases chart is 10/14/20, today, but the ongoing data would be expected to blow-out higher and the curve continue higher. Based on the peak in new cases on 7/24/20, the active cases chart was expected to peak on 8/21/20 and it did flatten from late August, through September, until now. The new peak in new cases for this third impulse wave, or third wave, is 10/14/20 so adding 28 days (as per the Keystone Model) is 11/11/20 when the active cases chart would next be expected to flatten and hopefully roll over to create the bell shape and prove that the virus is going to be defeated. The United States will not defeat the virus until the active cases curve flattens and rolls over to the downside to create the bell shape which will take many weeks. Currently, in mid-October, the country is going in the wrong direction.

On the US active cases chart above, the brown circle shows where the curve started to flatten on 9/1/20 and this ran into October but the curve is now blowing out higher again (red circle) verifying a new escalation in the pandemic. This behavior is similar to early June when it felt like the pandemic was subsiding and on its way out but then the infections due to the Memorial Day parties hit hard. Now the infections are rising due to the end-of-summer Labor Day parties and folks returning to work and school. The new cases are peaking today but this may continue (blue circle). The purple circle in the chart is the projection of a flattening of the curve on 11/11/20 based on the Keystone Model explained below, however, the forecast for the top in the active cases bell curve would have to be pushed forward if new cases keep rising.

The flattening of the active cases bell curve ran from 9/1/20 to 10/10/20 which was 40 days (six weeks) of hope, that the coronavirus would finally subside. Sadly, the US active cases chart blew out higher again and Keystone captured this moment in the 10/10/20 article, "Coronavirus (COVID-19) New and Active Cases Charts; AMERICA BLEW IT AGAIN!; US Fails to Flatten the Active Cases Bell Curve Chart; Highest Active Cases Ever; New Cases Highest Since August."

For the US new cases chart, the three waves are distinct. Since the new cases are moving higher again creating a third wave, or impulse, higher, that 10/14/20 peak in new cases (10/9 and 10/14 are the two highs in the red circle) should be used to target the peak in active cases (maximum strain on healthcare workers and equipment) 28 days hence which is mid-November. The key peaks in the new cases data occur on Fridays probably because of the way the data is gathered or tabulated. Watch the new cases reported for this Friday, 9/16/20 (chart is probably updated the following morning), since they will tell the story forward. That 7-day moving average is looking ugly ramping ever higher. You will begin smelling a bit of panic in the air going forward.

The Pennsylvania, USA, new cases chart is shown above. The Keystone State is in deep trouble after it handled the virus well in the spring. Sadly, yesterday, 10/13/20, the new cases spike to 1,829 the highest since 4/30/20; April! Adding 28 days to this second wave new cases peak forecasts a peak in the active cases chart on 11/10/20; mid-November. The virus is spreading in the United States and around the world. The huddled masses do not realize the sh*tstorm coming their way. Santa Claus may be delivering covid in your stocking this year. Pennsylvania is a key battleground state and the road to the Whitehouse goes through the Keystone State.

Ohio, USA, is another battleground state (leaning for Trump) and its new cases chart is shown above. Ohio has just blown out higher with new cases and its active cases curve. The Buckeye State is sinking deep into the covid ooze. Ohio republican Senator DeWine says Ohio is going in the wrong direction according to every virus metric.

Germany’s new cases chart is shown above with a peak in new cases today, 10/14/20, that matches the March highs. Other nations are in equally bad shape. France reports the highest number of cases ever, nearly 27K, on 10/10/20. Using the 28-day period as per the Keystone Model, France’s active cases curve is not expected to flatten until 11/7/20.

Russia’s new cases chart is shown above. That’s nasty. Dear Lord. Have Mercy on Their Souls. It’s bad enough the Russki’s are sitting around eating cold borscht each day but now they are sick with covid. Based on the 10/14/20 new cases peak date, Russia’s active cases curve would not be expected to flatten until 11/11/20; mid-November. Dictator Putin, protected in his covid-free bubble, must handle an ever-increasing angry population. Nearly 300 Russians die from coronavirus over the last 24 hours.

J&J, Johnson & Johnson, also known as Johnny-John by stock traders transacting large blocks of shares, halts its vaccine drug trials due to a patient becoming ill. J&J said they will provide more information after an investigation. JNJ stock sells off -3% on the news.

Eli Lilly postpones its antibody trials due to a patient becoming sick. This is a treatment similar to what the president received. LLY stock slips -5%. Doctors say the halts and delays at the pharmaceutical companies during the final trials is standard fare but the news will only cause Americans to further distrust the vaccine and antibody treatments being pushed through at, what President Trump calls, ‘warp speed’.

The Pfizer and BioNTech trials, using messenger RNA (mRNA) technology, continue and results are expected this month. The Moderna vaccine trial data is expected directly after the Pfizer/BioNTech data. Thus, Trump may receive some good news a couple days before the election on 11/3/20. The Trump ship would sink if these pharma’s were to delay their trials at this late stage.

Dr Fauci says the United States is “facing a whole lot of trouble” heading into the winter season. New cases are on the rise as well as the 7-day moving average of new cases. The test positivity rates are rising in the Midwest and Northwest states. Sure as night follows day and day, night, an increase in test positivity rates leads to an increase in new cases which creates more hospitalizations which results in more deaths.

As humans return indoors in the northern hemisphere during the colder weather, Fauci says the coming weeks and months could be the “perfect set-up for an acceleration of respiratory borne diseases.” Coronavirus and the yearly flu’s circulate in the ventilations systems and on surfaces. You would be wise to make sure that disgruntled, unhappy, perhaps asymptomatic, coworker is not walking around licking doorknobs.

Covid hit in the wintertime, December 2019 and January 2020, and expanded from there. There was a lull in the virus in the late springtime in most regions around the US except for states such as Florida, Texas and Arizona that saw increases in infections. Why? It’s easily explained. Those are warm states and folks escape the hot spring and summer sun by remaining indoors in the air conditioning and thus more readily exposed to the aerosolized coronavirus.

Fauci continues voicing disappointment and unhappiness that President Trump used him in a campaign ad. Fauci says he remains neutral to political parties and dedicated his life to fighting infectious diseases. Fauci says the pandemic is historic the worse in 102 years and proclaims, “I’m not going to walk away from this outbreak no matter who’s the president.”

There are a few positives in the virus sea of misery. First, asymptomatic people are likely not transmitting the virus as much as originally thought since they are not sniffling, sneezing, coughing, spitting, etc… Second, children may not pass the virus to each other as fast as it transmits from adult to adult. Thus, the worry that kids will bring the virus home to adults may be overblown.

Third, even though the US appears to be descending into a rough patch again, the death count may not grow as high as predicted. Young people are contracting the virus at a faster rate these days but they also can fight the virus far easier, and many remain asymptomatic. First Lady Melania is 50 years old and she makes it through the virus gauntlet asymptomatically. President Trump had complications since he is 74 years old (born in June). Fourth, we know a lot more about fighting covid now than eight months ago and this knowledge of drugs, treatments and therapies will reduce deaths going forward.

The 69-70 age is a cut-off point in the US where those younger experience a near miniscule death rate but those older have a 3% to 5% chance of dying (1 in 20). Try to delay your birthday and remain younger than 69 forever. Seven-O opens the covid door.

Remember to keep your immune system boosted and healthy. A daily regimen of zinc, vitamin A, vitamin C, vitamin D-3 and turmeric will do you good. You should be taking turmeric every day anyways. Zinc is key in fighting covid. During the March/April population panic when store shelves went bare, zinc disappeared quickly, so it would be wise to secure a bottle before the pending rush. All the supplements and vitamins mentioned are dirt cheap so you have no excuse for not taking care of yourself and do not forget to check with your doctor or nurse practitioner for advice or to ask questions. The US is likely slipping into a similar panic situation like the springtime so stand ready. 

The presidential election race continues with 11/3/20 only 20 days away. On Monday evening, 10/12/20, President Trump officially returns to the campaign trail for the first rally since contracting covid. The crowd of a few thousand people are mixing together with the majority not wearing masks. The president may be labeled as Typhoid Trump (Typhoid Mary) once the history books are written for conducting numerous superspreader events during a pandemic.

Fauci, other doctors, scientists and the medical community are aghast at Trump’s behavior and insistence on conducting campaign rallies since people will become sick from these events. A September Trump event in Minnesota has led to nine covid infections with one person in the ICU. Trump needs the seniors to vote for him and getting them sick at campaign events is not a good approach.

The president claims that he is immune but the jury is out and, if so, what does it mean? Most doctors believe that patients do develop an immunity that lasts several months even though there are cases surfacing of people contracting covid twice. Coronavirus may variate and mutate over time and this is not yet understood. Coronavirus will be around a long time and may recur each year like the flu. Ebola has not yet been eradicated. Asian nations are showing lower death rates than the US and this may be due to those nations having some type of immunity in place inside many individuals. Also, the Asian nations are far more agreeable and accepting of mask-wearing and social distancing practices which help maintain lower infection rates.

Trump is bragging and boasting during yesterday’s campaign rally proclaiming, “They say I’m immune, I can feel, I feel so powerful, l’ll walk into that audience, I’ll walk in there, I’ll kiss everyone in that audience, I’ll kiss the guys and the beautiful women and the, everybody, just give you a big fat kiss.” Trump appears animated from medications even though he says he is not taking any. Trump’s behavior is odd since it is not winning votes with seniors that are afraid of contracting covid and dying. Most people understand that Trump has special care available and recovered because of treatments not available to anyone else, so the president’s braggadocio style is not a good look. Trump’s base, however, loves the rallies. He tosses fresh red meat to the blood-thirsty ravenous fans, donning red MAGA hats, that, in return, provide the adoration the president seeks; it is a closed mutual admirations society but there are probably not enough of them to push Trump over the line in three weeks.

The polls show that Trump’s behavior during and after his illness is causing seniors to lean towards Biden. Trump sustained a one-two punch in the polls. An ABC News/Washington Post national poll shows Biden with a commanding 12-point advantage over Trump. The polls have Biden up from 8 to 12 points and 4 points is typically the margin of error. Trump has is work cut out for him.

At the same time, democrats are not gloating since they remember the last election when Hillary Clinton was ahead in the polls, and she did receive over 3 million more votes, winning the popular vote, but lost the election since Trump won the battleground states and Electoral College advantage which is what matters. Trump needs the polls in the battleground states (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, etc…) to close within 3 or 4 points at the margin of error to give himself a fighting chance. Florida is close right now but other states show Biden with leads above the margin of error. Also, Biden’s popularity is a touch above 50% as compared to Trump in the low 40%’s. Four years ago, Hillary Clinton never got above 50% popularity.

America is a representative republic where the republican-leaning folks in the Midwest have the same say in government as the left-leaning folks on the West and East Coasts even though the populations in these regions are massively different. If the president is elected by the popular vote, this is simply a majority-rules government, or mob society, if you will. Individuals with special needs or desires, or that simply want to live their life differently than the mainstream population, that are not represented with a large voting block of people, are forgotten and/or mistreated and discriminated against under a mob rule system versus the Electoral College system.

Trump stupidly backed out of the next debate scheduled for tomorrow. It was to be a town hall event in Miami, Florida. It’s funny. For months, Americans are told to wait for the debates when Trump would make mince-meat out of Biden and instead Sleepy Joe won the first debate. At the same time, the republican mouth pieces, led by Rush Limbaugh, said Biden would drop out of the debates before they started. Wrong again and comically, Trump is the one that ends up dropping out of the second debate. The president could get his message out to millions of people, especially the independents he needs, but does not want to participate in a virtual debate. The debate commission said the second debate would be virtual due to Trump’s illness and the ongoing virus spread at the Whitehouse.  

The Labor Secretary Eugene Scalia’s (son of deceased Supreme Court Justice Scalia) wife, that attended the Rose Garden superspreader event, tests positive for coronavirus. The drip, drip, drip of news of people attending Trump events becoming sick with covid is not helping Donnie in the polls.

On Tuesday evening, 10/13/20, Trump conducts a second rally in as many days this one in Johnstown, Pennsylvania, in the scenic Laurel Highlands of southwestern Pennsylvania; Keystone’s backyard. Level-headed people reside in this region and typically pick the presidential candidate that wins.  Thus, both Trump and Biden are making numerous campaign stops in the greater Pittsburgh area and points east of the city such as Latrobe, historic Ligonier and Johnstown, kissing voter’s butts. Folks around here will be happy when 11/4/20 arrives so the campaign commercials on television will end.

China’s coronavirus bioweapon, spawned at the two Wuhan laboratories, has infected 38.4 million people around the world killing 1.1 million souls. Nearly 29 million people have recovered. The Chinese communists unleash bioterrorism upon the planet.

The Wuhan Flu, President Trump calls it the China Virus, has attacked and sickened nearly 8.1 million Americans (2.5% of the 330 million US population; 1 in every 40 citizens), the highest number of cases in the world, murdering nearly 222K United States citizens. 5.2 million Americans have recovered. America is only 4% of the world’s population but has one-fifth (21%) of the coronavirus cases and one-fifth (20%) of the deaths.

China unleashes bioterrorism upon the world while restarting their economy. The communist nation is getting back to normal while the rest of the world cleans up the Chinese mess. China owes the world restitution for releasing their experimental Wuhan Flu bioweapon on the earth’s population. China must pay for its bioterrorism and crimes against humanity. Dirtbag Dictator Xi is Hitler incarnate responsible for murdering 1.1 million humans; his sick communist soul is destined for the worst levels of Dante’s Inferno.

The USA has the greatest number of total coronavirus cases in the world followed by India, Brazil, Russia, Spain, Colombia, Argentina, Peru, Mexico, France, South Africa, UK, Iran, Chile, Iraq, Bangladesh, Italy, Philippines, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Germany, Pakistan and Israel. Spain and Argentina move higher on the list indicating that the virus is worsening. Ditto France. Iraq is also in worse shape with its total cases.

An update for The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model (TKSCIRM) is provided since another 10-day period passes, and more data and information are available. This is Article 22 in the coronavirus series that provides real-time information for historians, teachers, students, journalists, economists, market participants, corporate executives, financial managers, doctors, nurses, medical personnel, researchers, public officials and politicians studying the COVID-19 pandemic. This twenty-second article is published on Wednesday, 10/14/20.

The Keystone Speculator’s Coronavirus Series of Articles are the only real-time source of information available continuously chronicling the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic during 2020. Readers live and breathe the pandemic, the worst in a century, as it occurs in real-time, from the beginning.

The first article in the coronavirus series is US Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infections Chart 3/15/20; The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model; US COVID-19 Infections Surpass 3,300; Federal Reserve Blinks and Cuts Interest Rates to the Zero Bound Embracing ZIRP and Announcing $700 Billion QE Program; US Futures Tank Limit-Down; Coronavirus Archive Article 1 published 3/15/20.

The second article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 3/24/20; Italy Daily Cases Leveling Off; US Daily Cases Continue Rising; Congress Negotiating Fiscal Stimulus Bill; Coronavirus Archive Article 2 published 3/24/20.

The third article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/3/20; Italy Daily Active Cases Peaking; United States Faces Ugly Coronavirus Pain Ahead; US Monthly Jobs Report; Coronavirus Archive Article 3 published 4/3/20.

The fourth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/13/20; US Active Cases Continue Rising; India, Indonesia, Singapore, Japan, Russia, Peru, Ecuador and UK Headed for Trouble; Second Wave Worries; President Trump Ushers in Age of MMT (Modern Monetary Theory (Limitless Spending)); Rampant Job Losses; People in Need; Finger-Pointing Begins; Worldwide COVID-19 Cases Top 2 Million; Coronavirus Archive Article 4 published 4/13/20.

The fifth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/23/20; Australia, South Korea, Switzerland, Germany, Hong Kong, Taiwan and China are Coronavirus Success Stories; Italy, France and Spain Finally at Top of Active Case Bell Curve; UK, Ecuador, Japan, Turkey, Peru, Brazil, Canada, Indonesia, India, Russia, Mexico and Singapore Brace for Virus Pain; Countries Anxious to Restart Economies; “Flattening the Curve” Term Misused; Ongoing Shortages of Virus Testing Supplies and PPE (Personal Protective equipment); Congress Passes $484 Billion Spending Bill; US COVID-19 Deaths Top 50,000; GRIM VIRUS NEWS 4/25/20; Coronavirus Archive Article 5 published on 4/23/20.

The sixth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate model Update 5/3/20; America Restarts Economy as New Virus Cases Increase; US Active Cases Not Expected to Peak Until 5/21/20; 68K Americans Dead from COVID-19 More Than Vietnam War; Testing Deficiencies Continue; Coronavirus Preferentially Hurts Black Community; Brazil, Nigeria, South Africa, India, Russia, Mexico and Chile Descend Into COVID-19 Hell this Month; US-China Relations Collapsing; President Trump Says 100K People May Die; U of W Model Says 134K May Die in US; Coronavirus Article 6 published on 5/3/20.

The seventh article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 5/14/20; Russia, India, Nigeria, Brazil, UK and Philippines Remain Mired in Virus Trouble; South Africa, Indonesia, Chile, Peru and Mexico are in COVID-19 Hell; America Restarts Economy Before Flattening the Curve; Texas, California, New Jersey and New York Worst Virus States; Testing Deficiencies Persist; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Second Wave Fears; Coronavirus Article 7 published on 5/14/20.

The eighth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 5/24/20; Math Explains the Black and Latino Infections and Ongoing Coronavirus Zeitgeist; Russia, Poland, Brazil, Peru, Bolivia, Chile, Argentina, Columbia, Honduras, Mexico, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Nigeria, Kenya, Egypt and South Africa in COVID-19 Hell; America Restarts Economy; US Active Cases Curve Finally Flattens; New York, Florida, Ohio, Washington, California, Texas, Arkansas and North Carolina are Worst States Not Yet Able to Flatten the Curve; Coronavirus Tragedy Turns Political; President Trump Refuses to Wear a Mouth Diaper (Face Mask); Hertz Goes Bankrupt; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Second Wave Fears; Trump Golfs; US DEATHS EXCEED 100,000; Coronavirus Article 8 published on 5/24/20.

The ninth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/3/20; Indonesia, Philippines, Egypt, Kenya, South Africa, Mexico, Honduras, Columbia, Brazil, Peru, Bolivia, Chile, Argentina, Bangladesh, Pakistan and India are in COVID-19 Hell; America Continues Reopening the Economy; US Active Cases Curve Finally Flattens (Tentatively); Texas, Arkansas, North Carolina and California are Troubled States; Second Wave Worries Continue; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Population Becoming Complacent About COVID-19; Coronavirus Article 9 published on 6/3/20.

The tenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/13/20; Philippines, Peru, Iran, Kenya, Poland, Sweden, India, Indonesia, Honduras, Brazil, Bolivia, Chile, Pakistan, Bangladesh, South Africa, Egypt, Columbia and Argentina are in COVID-19 Hell; US Virus Cases Rising in Many States Due to Increased Testing, Reopening the Economy, Protests and Large Groups Gathering; Arizona, Texas, Arkansas, South Carolina, North Carolina, California and Florida are in Serious Trouble; President Trump Moves Republican Convention to Florida Where Virus Cases are Spiking; Protests and Riots Increase Around the World; US Police Under Scrutiny for Racial Injustice; Public Health Authorities Clueless; Coronavirus Article 10 published on 6/13/20.

The eleventh article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/23/20; Pandemic in the Sunbelt (US South and West); Arizona, California, Texas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Florida, Carolina’s, Arkansas and New Mexico are US Hot-Spots; Houston Running Out of Beds; South Asia, America’s and Africa Experiencing COVID-19 Hell; US, Bolivia, Argentina, Guatemala, India and Philippines are in Serious Trouble; Deteriorating US-China Relations and Increasing US COVID-19 Cases Creating Market Angst; Coronavirus Article 11 published on 6/23/20.

The twelfth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 7/4/20; US Experiencing Dramatic Uptick in Cases as President Trump and Vice President Pence Signal the All-Clear; Ohio, Florida, Carolina’s, Arkansas, Georgia, California, Alabama, Arizona, Texas and Oklahoma are in COVID-19 Hell; Texas, Arizona and Florida are Reaching Limits on ICU Beds; US, Bolivia, Argentina, Colombia, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Philippines, Indonesia, India, Bangladesh, South Africa and Kenya are in Serious Coronavirus Trouble; COVID-19 Timeline; Coronavirus Article 12 published on 7/4/20.

The thirteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 7/14/20; President Trump Pressures States to Reopen Schools; Donnie Finally Dons a Face Diaper; US Death Numbers Controversy Explained; RNC (Republican) Convention in Jeopardy; Kansas, Washington, Tennessee, Alaska, the Carolina’s, Idaho, Wisconsin, Arkansas, Oregon, Ohio, Louisiana, Georgia, Utah, Montana, Alabama, Oklahoma, Missouri and Kentucky Join Florida, Texas, Arizona and California in the Coronavirus Cesspool; Oman, India, El Salvador, Bolivia, Argentina, South Africa, Romania, Mexico, Colombia and USA are in COVID-19 Hell; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Italy Textbook Bell Curve; New Kazakhstan Virus; Coronavirus Article 13 published on 7/14/20.

The fourteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 7/24/20; President Trump Reverses Course Touting Mask Use and Restarting Coronavirus Press Conferences; Over 20 Million Americans Remain Unemployed; New Mexico, Alabama, Wisconsin, Arkansas, Alaska, North Carolina, California, Oklahoma and Missouri are the Most-Infected States; US Healthcare System is Under Heavy Pressure Through August; Australia, Hong Kong and Japan Hit with Second Waves; India, El Salvador, Argentina, South Africa, Romania, Brazil, Bolivia, Mexico, Kazakhstan, Colombia, Kenya and United States are Most-Infected Nations; US-China Tensions Escalate; US Congress Negotiating Another Stimulus Bill; Coronavirus Article 14 published on 7/24/20.

The fifteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 8/3/20; Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, Spain and Peru Handling Second Wave; Philippines, Colombia, Bolivia, Mexico, India, Ukraine, El Salvador, Peru, Spain, Argentina, Romania and Brazil in COVID-19 Hell; 41 US States Show Active Cases Curves Continuing Higher; 9 US States are in a Second Wave; Coronavirus Particle Size Analysis and Aerosol Behavior; Public Restrooms and Fecal Matter May Be Major Factors in Virus Transmission; Testing Troubles Continue; AstraZeneca Granted Protection from Vaccine Liability; Coronavirus Article 15 published on 8/3/20.

The sixteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 8/13/20; Finally Good Pandemic News for the United States; Europe Slipping Into Second Wave Behavior; Most Problematic Virus-Infected Nations are India, Philippines, Romania, Ukraine, Iraq, Colombia, Peru, Bolivia, Argentina, El Salvador, Netherlands, Belgium, France and Spain; Worst US States are Kentucky, California, Mississippi, Illinois, Indiana, Arkansas, Virginia, Idaho, Wisconsin, North Dakota and Hawaii; US Congress Deadlocked on Stimulus Bill After President Trump Signs Executive Order; US Testing Troubles Continue; Good News Turns Bad with US Active Cases Resuming the Uptrend; Coronavirus Article 16 published on 8/13/20.

The seventeenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 8/23/20; US is Struggling to ‘Flatten the Curve’; Australia, Hong Kong and Japan Defeat the Second Wave; European Countries Mired in Second Wave Include France, Spain, Italy, Belgium, Netherlands, Finland, Ireland, Austria, Switzerland, Germany, Greece, Poland and Czechia; Peru, Nepal, Turkey and UAE are also in Second Waves; Worst Countries are India, Ukraine, UAE, Moldova, Croatia, Albania, Greece, Poland, Switzerland, Italy and France; North Korea in Famine; 9 US States in Second Wave; Worst US States are Illinois, South Dakota, North Dakota, Michigan, Iowa, Wyoming, Kansas, Missouri, North Carolina, Delaware, Hawaii, Kentucky and California; US Congress is on Vacation Remaining Deadlocked on Stimulus Bill; RNC Convention Begins; Coronavirus Article 17 published on 8/23/20.

The eighteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 9/2/20; US Unable to ‘Flatten the Curve’; Countries with Worst New Cases are India, UAE, Czechia, Turkey, Ireland, Finland, Spain, Costa Rica, Canada, Italy, Nepal, Peru, Honduras, Indonesia, Ukraine, France and Greece; Europe Deals with Second Wave; Worst US States are West Virginia, Mississippi, Kansas, South Dakota, North Dakota, South Carolina, Illinois, Iowa, Alabama, Rhode Island, Delaware, Hawaii, Kentucky, Virginia, Alaska, Oregon, Georgia and Arizona; US Congress Continues Fiscal Stimulus Talks; Polls Tighten in US Presidential Race;  Coronavirus Article 18 published on 9/2/20.

The nineteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 9/12/20; United States Finally Flattening the Active Cases Bell Curve Chart; President Trump Admits He Downplayed Virus; US Schools and Colleges Reopen; 2% of Americans Have Been or Are Infected with Coronavirus; Second Wave Consumes Europe; 31 Nations Report Increases in New Cases This Month; 26 Countries Report Increases in New Cases in Last Two Days; New Cases Spike in 15 US States in Last 9 Days; 28 US States Cannot Yet Flatten the Curve; Congress Unable to Agree on Stimulus Bill; COVID-19 Has Killed Over 200,000 Americans; Coronavirus Article 19 published on 9/12/20.

The twentieth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 9/24/20; Over 200,000 Americans Dead; US is Flattening the Active Cases Bell Curve Chart but 35 States Are Struggling; 10 US States Report Highest New Coronavirus Cases Ever including Wyoming, Kansas, North Dakota, South Dakota, Missouri, Minnesota, Utah, West Virginia, Arkansas and Illinois; Europe is in COVID-19 Hell but Only Imposing Lockdown-Lite Restrictions; Israel Imposes Strict Lockdown; 19 Countries Report Highest New COVID-19 Cases Ever Including Spain, Netherlands, UK, Poland, Romania, Hungary, Greece, Czechia, Moldova, Ukraine, UAE, Iran, Iraq, Bahrain, Israel, Nepal, Morocco, Indonesia and Argentina; President Trump Asks UN Members to Hold China Accountable for “The China Virus”; Congress Unable to Agree on Fiscal Stimulus Bill; US Stock Market Slips into a -10% Correction; WORDWIDE CORONAVIRUS DEATHS EXCEED 1 MILION PEOPLE; PRESIDENT TRUMP AND FIRST LADY MELANIA TEST POSITIVE FOR COVID-19; Coronavirus Article 20 published on 9/24/20.

The twenty-first article is The Keystone SpeculatorCoronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 10/4/20; President Trump inHospital Battling Coronavirus; US Continues Flattening the Active Cases BellCurve Chart Despite 39 States in COVID-19 Trouble; New York, New Jersey,Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, Connecticut and New Hampshire Begin a Disappointing2nd Wave; Big Spikes in New Cases Occurring in Missouri, Wisconsin, Kentucky,Nebraska, Montana and Wyoming; Coronavirus Smacks the Midwest and Northwest US;Whitehouse Rose Garden Superspreader Event; Over 214K Americans Dead; Over 1Million Humans Dead; Over 35 Million Humans Infected; Europe Dealing with Major2nd Wave Outbreak; 30 Countries Experiencing Spikes in New Virus CasesIncluding Italy, France, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Ireland, UK, Austria,Sweden, Russia, Canada, Argentina and Iraq; US Congress Continues NegotiatingStimulus Bill; Trump Released from Walter Reed Hospital; AMERICA BLEW ITAGAIN!; US Fails to Flatten the Curve; Coronavirus Article 21 published on 10/4/20.

The Worldometer web site is useful in tracking coronavirus (COVID-19) around the world and its link is provided. Many charts in the coronavirus series of articles are provided courtesy of Worldometer and annotated by Keystone. The Worldometer data is about 3 to 5 days ahead of the Johns-Hopkins data, sometimes more. This is why some of the forecasts in the coronavirus series of articles appear prescient. You will generally know of a trend or direction change of the coronavirus pandemic here first followed by the mainstream media playing catch-up a few days later. The current jump in new cases in the US was identified and highlighted in the prior Article 21 but only now appears on the cable and broadcast news coverage.

The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model (TKSCIRM) forecasts the peak date in active coronavirus cases for any country or region. The peak and flattening of the active cases chart represent the maximum strain on medical personnel and facilities. The Keystone Model monitors the Worldometer new cases data for a country or region and identifies the date of the peak in new cases (New Case Peak Date). Once this occurs, the active case bell curve will peak in 1 to 4 weeks depending on how the virus situation is handled.

If the country, region or state is well-prepared, the active cases will peak 11 days, on average, after the new cases peak (think South Korea, Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, etc..). The 11 days also holds for communist and dictatorship-style governments, such as red China, since the population has to do what it is told or they receive a bullet in their heads. Even the second wave outbreaks in Australia, Hong Kong and Japan are brought under control in the same time period as the initial wave.

If the country is not well-prepared, or non-communist, like the US, the active cases will peak 28 days after the peak in new cases. Same for any US state. Add 28 days to the New Cases Peak Date to arrive at the Projected Active Cases Peak Date (when the pandemic will begin to subside and hopefully decrease). Western nations live more feely so it is more difficult to control a pandemic.

The top of the bell curve pattern on the active cases chart is important since it represents the maximum strain on medical facilities and healthcare personnel. Hospitalization data may be retreating but the active cases curve is far more important. People remain under doctor’s care with fatigue and other symptoms after they recover from the worst of the virus which creates an ongoing demand on the healthcare system.  Other semi-recovered patients are sent home or to other medical facilities or nursing homes and not counted in the hospitalization data but they remain a strain on the medical system. The coronavirus pandemic is only under control when the active cases curve rolls over lower forming the bell shape.

Months after the Memorial Day debacle, the US active cases curve finally flattens again for six weeks during September into early October. America is once again on the verge of defeating the virus but the Labor Day parties and reopening of businesses and schools brings on more COVID-19 Hell. The active cases curve begins moving higher once again instead of dropping and creating the bell shape. The discussion about ‘flattening the curve’ pertains only to the active cases bell curve chart shown above and not to the new cases bar chart. The media and citizens are confused with the charts and data since medical officials and politicians do not properly explain or understand these concepts themselves. Perhaps they want to keep the public in the dark.

The Keystone Model uses the new case peak date for forecasting the peak in the active cases bell curve. Any subsequent higher new case numbers will create a new case peak date. Also, if the number of new cases is within 8% of the prior peak, that new date becomes the new case peak date where 28 days is added (or 11 days for nations that handle the virus better) to project when the peak in the active cases chart will occur. The behavior of higher high new case numbers, and a 7-day moving average sloping higher, signals that the virus is getting worse in that region. Obviously, all nations want their new cases to trend lower and drop to zero.

The peak new case date for the US is 7/24/20. As explained above, this third wave of the virus in America, or third impulse of the original wave if you prefer, produces a new case peak date at 10/9/20 and then today, 10/14/20. Adding 28 days is a target date of 11/11/20 for the US to flatten the active cases curve and hopefully begin to roll it over lower. The virus is going to be around a while. Learn to live with it.

The nations that have weathered the latest virus storm with their active cases charts rolling over to form the bell shape are India (problematic data), Brazil, Colombia, Peru, South Africa, Mexico, Chile, Bangladesh, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Bolivia, Qatar, Dominican Republic, Panama, Kazakhstan, Philippines (data is messy), Egypt, Kuwait (may be worsening), Guatemala, China (the bioterrorists that unleashed the Wuhan virus experiment), Japan, Australia, South Korea, Honduras (may be worsening), Venezuela, Nigeria, Singapore, El Salvador, Bahrain, Costa Rica (problematic data), Ecuador (problematic data), Israel, Iraq and Uzbekistan (problematic data). Kuwait (Middle East) and Honduras (Central America) are probably starting to slip down the coronavirus rabbit hole.

Israel’s new cases peaked on 9/23/20 and the active cases bell curve peaked and rolled over on 10/1/20 only eight days later. Israel imposed a strict lockdown when the new cases began spiking higher and the outbreak is snuffed-out quickly. The socialist, communist and authoritarian nations can stop the pandemic easier since the citizenry must obey government without rebuttal (11-day average between the new cases peak and when the active cases peak) while the Western nations have a more difficult row to hoe since folks like to question authority and want to continue socializing and partying (28-day average between the new cases peak and when the active cases peak).

A small outbreak occurs in the Qingdao region of China and is quickly nipped in the bud in this closed communist society. China employs a strategy of conducting 9.5 million virus tests in five days. This is day four and they are at 7.5 million tests completed. China, who unleashed the Wuhan virus on the world, uses the ‘pool testing’ methodology as explained several articles ago. People are tested in groups with cheap tests. If one positive shows in that group, all those people are then brought in for a better virus test so they can identify the sick patient and begin tracing. The US could have employed this methodology the last few months but there is no leadership. Each state, and also cities and local municipalities, are on their own, scrambling each day, each reinventing the wheel umpteen times. The United States has a lot to learn about pandemic preparation and management (Trump canned these departments and experts when he came into office so he could brag about saving money) but first the weathered nation must get beyond the covid nightmare.

Sadly, the United States appears on the list below of troubled countries again after failing to flatten the active cases bell curve chart after six weeks of hoping and praying. America is averaging over 50K new cases per day for the first time in a couple months.

The 38 worst global hotspots that have not yet flattened the curve are highlighted in the list below with their projected peaks in active cases dates (maximum stress on healthcare workers and medical equipment and systems) provided. China’s deadly coronavirus stink lingers in the world’s atmosphere like the stench of garbage in the hot summer sun.

Spain (Second Wave) (limited data hampers analysis)
9/18/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
10/16/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Oman (Second Wave)
10/4/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
10/15/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)


Ethiopia (Fourth Wave)
10/7/20 New Case Peak Date (new cases peak on 10/4 and 10/7/20 for this fourth wave)
10/18/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
Greece (Second Wave)
10/8/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever 9/21, 10/2 and 10/8/20)
10/19/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days; data is problematic)
 
Moldova (Second Wave)
10/8/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever 9/30, 10/1 and 10/2/20)
10/19/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
Indonesia (Second Wave)
10/8/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
11/5/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Sweden (Second Wave) (limited data hampers analysis)
10/8/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases since June)
11/5/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Argentina (Second Wave) (data is problematic)
10/8/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever on 10/7 and 10/8/20)
11/5/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Turkey (Second Wave)
10/9/20 New Case Peak Date (new cases highest since May)
10/20/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days; curve trying to flatten)
 
United States (Third Wave or Third Impulse of Original Wave)
10/9/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases since 8/14/20)
11/6/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Austria (Second Wave)
10/10/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever 3/26 and 10/10/20)
10/20/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
Ireland (Second Wave)
10/10/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever 4/10, 4/15 and 10/10/20)
10/21/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days; chart is moving higher)
 
Nepal (Second Wave)
10/10/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
11/7/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days; data is problematic)
 
Ukraine
10/10/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever 10/9 and 10/10/20)
11/7/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
France (Second Wave)
10/10/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
11/7/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Portugal (Second Wave)
10/10/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever on 4/10 and 10/10)
11/7/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Hungary (Second Wave)
10/10/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
11/7/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Romania (Second Wave)
10/10/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
11/7/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days; data is problematic)
 
Croatia (Fourth Wave)
10/11/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever 10/8 and 10/11/20)
10/22/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
Belgium (Second Wave)
10/11/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
11/8/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Belarus (Second Wave)
10/11/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever on 4/10 and 10/11/20)
11/8/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Belize (Second Wave)
10/11/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases on 8/13, 8/19, 8/29 and 10/13/20)
11/8/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Poland (Third Wave)
10/13/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever on 10/10 and 10/13/20)
10/24/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
Switzerland (Second Wave)
10/13/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever on 10/9/20 and 10/13/20)
10/26/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
Germany (Second Wave)
10/14/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases since April)
10/25/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
Albania (Third Wave)
10/13/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
10/24/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
Morocco (Fourth Wave)
10/13/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever 10/9, 10/10 and 10/13/20)
10/24/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
UAE (Second Wave)
10/13/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
10/24/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
Iran (Third Wave)
10/13/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever on 10/6, 10/8, 10/12 and 10/13/20)
10/24/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
Czechia (Second Far-Larger Wave)
10/13/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever on 10/9 and 10/13/20
10/24/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
Finland (Second Wave)
10/13/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever 10/8, 10/10 and 10/13/20)
10/24/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
 
Netherlands (Second Wave) (limited data hampers analysis)
10/13/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever; exploding higher)
11/10/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Georgia (Second Wave)
10/13/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever on 10/5 and 10/13/20)
11/10/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Russia (Second Wave)
10/13/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
11/10/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Armenia (Second Wave)
10/13/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever on 6/7, 6/25, 6/26 and 10/13/20)
11/10/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Italy (Second Wave)
10/13/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever on 3/20, 3/21, 3/26, 3/27, 3/28 and 10/13/20)
11/10/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
Canada (Second Wave)
10/13/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever; huge spike higher)
11/10/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
 
UK (Second Wave) (limited data hampers analysis)
10/13/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever 10/8/20 and 10/13/20)
11/10/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)

 

North Korea (no virus data is available; the hermit kingdom is in famine; Kim Jong-un is alive and recovered from a serious multi-week illness probably coronavirus)

The new cases and active cases charts continue moving higher for the 38 countries listed above. The active cases charts will not yet roll over to form the bell shape for these nations so the strain on medical workers and equipment continues (which includes the care after hospitalizations). 

Europe is in major trouble. The countries sinking into the coronavirus quagmire are UK, Italy, Netherlands, Finland, Czechia, Germany, Switzerland, Poland, Belarus, Albania, Belgium, Croatia, Romania, Hungary, Portugal, France, Ireland, Austria, Spain, Sweden, Greece and Moldova. Another hot spot is the Georgia, Armenia, Iran, Iraq and Turkey confluence in the western Asia and northern Middle East. Coronavirus is spreading rapidly in that region. Nearly 300 Russians just died from covid over the last 24 hours. 

Combining the trouble in Europe, western Asia and the Middle East, and Morocco in northern Africa, a large swath of misery appears on the world map shown above. The map is provided by the excellent site MapQuest that was the original mapmaker on the internet. The chart is annotated by Keystone. The 30 countries shown on the map (red circles) are in the list above and experiencing all-time record highs in new cases (many are reporting the most new cases since the pandemic began in early 2020). It would be wise to put off travel plans anywhere within that area. Europe is unraveling. The world lacks leadership. The loss of business and destruction to the economies within that swatch of misery across the pond can send the entire world into a global recession and depression. China’s largest trading partner is Europe. 

For America, the troubled US states are highlighted below with their projections on when the active cases curve will peak-out (max strain on healthcare system) as per the Keystone Model. The top 14 states for total virus cases, from highest to lowest, are California (worst), Texas, Florida, New York, Georgia, Illinois, North Carolina, Arizona, Tennessee, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Louisiana, Alabama and Virginia. North Carolina has moved up the list for the last couple weeks now leapfrogging Arizona. Tennessee leapfrogs New Jersey. Pennsylvania and Ohio, two election battleground states, move up the list with their total case counts growing ever higher. 

Dr Fauci says the trend line is going the wrong way as the United States heads into winter. Fauci had hoped that the infections would subside and the country would be at a lower base as the fall season begins but no such luck. Another metric Fauci and other doctors use is the test positivity rate. The United States is sadly above 5% in positive virus tests. This number is getting too high to carry out effective tracking and tracing. The positivity rate needs to be under 5% to carry out an effective tracking program and preferably sub 3%. Fauci opines that he would like to see the virus test positivity rate below 1% as we go into the winter flu season. Therefore, Fauci appears downtrodden at what he expects going forward. The regular flu season is beginning along side the ongoing, and escalating, covid pandemic. 

The 6 US states that have successfully created the bell shape on the active cases chart are Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Nevada (but it appears poised to worsen), Hawaii and Vermont (but poised to worsen); also the District of Columbia (DC). This list was 15 states 20 days ago, 11 states 10 days ago, and now only 6 states with a couple of them ready to again join the sad list below. The coronavirus situation is obviously worsening as delusional King Donnie proclaims each day that the US is “turning the corner.” Trump is the modern-day Nero fiddling while Rome is burning. This behavior is hurting Trump in the election polls. He is out of touch. As the virus escalation becomes more obvious to the average Joe on the street in the days ahead, Trump’s proclamation that the virus is behind us will appear delusional. 

Below is a listing of the 44 states (this list was 35 states 20 days ago, 39 states 10 days ago and now 44 states so the virus is obviously worsening) having the most trouble in dealing with the covid pandemic. America is likely descending into a panic again like the springtime with the store shelves going bare and people hunkering-down. This behavior will devastate the US economy especially with the hope for a fiscal stimulus bill looking dim. 

The worst states are at the bottom of the list since their new cases are escalating the most in recent days but all the states listed below are in trouble. Europe is descending into COVID-19 Hell and the United States is following their lead. 

Maryland (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 7/25/20 (new cases now moving up towards July and August numbers)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/21/20 (chart continues higher; data is problematic)
 
California
New Case Peak Date 8/11/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 9/8/20 (chart continues higher; data is problematic)
 
Delaware (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 8/14/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 9/11/20 (chart continues higher; data is problematic)


Illinois (Second Wave) (data is a mess and problematic)
New Case Peak Date 9/4/20 (highest cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 10/2/20 (chart continues higher)
 
Arizona (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 9/17/20 (highest new cases since late July early August)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 10/15/20 (data is problematic)
 
Alabama
New Case Peak Date 9/25/20 (highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 10/23/20
 
Maine (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 9/30/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 10/28/20 (data is messy)
 
New Hampshire (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/2/20 (highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 10/30/20
 
South Carolina (Third Choppy Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/3/20 (highest new cases since early Sept and July)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 10/31/20 (data is problematic)
 
Missouri
New Case Peak Date 10/6/20 (highest new cases ever 10/3/20 and 10/6/20)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/3/20
 
Arkansas
New Case Peak Date 10/8/20 (highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/5/20
 
Virginia (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/8/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/5/20
 
Utah (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/8/20 (highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/5/20
 
Oregon (Third Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/8/20 (highest new cases ever are 7/26, 9/25 and 10/8/20)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/5/20
 
New Jersey (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/8/20 (highest new cases since May)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/5/20 (active cases chart begins rising)
 
New York (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/8/20 (highest new cases since 5/29/20)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/5/20 (active cases chart begins moving higher)
 
West Virginia (Third Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/9/20 (highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/6/20
 
Rhode Island (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/9/20 (highest new cases since May)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/6/20
 
Nebraska (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/9/20 (highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/6/20
 
Wyoming (Third Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/9/20 (highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/6/20
 
Oklahoma
New Case Peak Date 10/10/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/7/20
 
North Carolina (Third Choppy Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/10/20 (highest new cases on 10/8 and 10/10/20 since July)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/7/20 (data is problematic)
 
Mississippi (Third Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/10/20 (highest new cases on 10/6 and 10/8/20 since August)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/7/20 (data is problematic)
 
Indiana (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/10/20 (highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/7/20
 
Minnesota (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/10/20 (highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/7/20
 
Montana (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/10/20 (highest new cases ever 10/7, 10/9 and 10/10/20)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/7/20
 
Alaska (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/11/20 (highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/8/20
 
Kansas (Third Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/12/20 (highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/9/20 (data is messy and problematic)
 
Connecticut (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/12/20 (highest new cases ever are 4/20, 4/22 and 10/12/20)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/9/20 (active cases chart is rising)
 
Tennessee (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/12/20 (highest new cases since July)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/9/20 (active cases chart moving higher)
 
Michigan (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/12/20 (highest new cases ever are 4/3/20 and 10/12/20)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/9/20
 
Washington (Third Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/13/20 (highest new cases since 8/3/20)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/10/20
 
Massachusetts (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/13/20 (October is highest new cases since May)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/10/20 (active cases chart is rising)
 
Texas (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/13/20 (highest new cases since 9/29/20 and back in August)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/10/20 (active cases chart begins moving higher)
 
Colorado (Third Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/13/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/10/20
 
Pennsylvania (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/13/20 (highest new cases since April)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/10/20
 
Wisconsin (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/13/20 (highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/10/20
 
Idaho (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/14/20 (October is highest new cases since 7/15, 7/16 and 8/6/20)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/11/20
 
Iowa (Fourth Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/14/20 (highest new cases ever are on 8/28/20 and 10/14/20)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/11/20 (data is problematic)
 
Kentucky
New Case Peak Date 10/14/20 (highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/11/20
 
New Mexico (Third Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/14/20 (highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/11/20
 
Ohio (Fourth Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/14/20 (highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/11/20 (active cases chart rising sharply)
 
South Dakota (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/14/20 (highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/11/20
 
North Dakota (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 10/14/20 (highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/11/20

 

44 out of 50 states are seeing a record high in new cases or numbers going back to the springtime highs. The pandemic is not going away anytime soon despite what President Trump is hoping. Hope is not a strategy. The pandemic needs leadership and this is missing on the country and world stage. Politicians are weak-kneed these days. 

The worst 18 states are the Dakota’s, Ohio, New Mexico, Kentucky, Iowa, Idaho, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Texas, Massachusetts, Washington, Michigan, Tennessee, Kansas, Connecticut and Alaska, but the other 26 states making up the 44 total are in equally bad shape. 

Ohioans must not have taken the virus serious enough since the virus cases are rapidly increasing. The land of lakes (Minnesota) is drowning in covid with new cases at a record high. Wisconsin is erecting field hospitals to handle the overflow of patients and a half-dozen other states are at capacity. Ohio, Minnesota and Wisconsin are battleground states in the presidential election. Healthcare workers are also under serious stress in Kentucky and Utah. Indiana’s health commissioner Dr Kristina Box contracts covid. 

Americans appear somewhat oblivious as to how fast and bad the virus is spreading and worsening. They will understand over the next couple weeks. The worsening of the pandemic will have an impact on Election Day on 11/3/20 and is a likely negative for President Trump. 

For any state that has not yet reached its peak in the active cases curve, simply identify what day the new cases peak and add 28 days to that date to project when the top of the bell curve will occur on the active cases chart as per the Keystone Model. If subsequent new case numbers exceed the new case peak date’s number, or are within 8% of the new case peak date, that new date becomes the new case peak date and 28 days is added to project the active cases peak load. A new wave is identified by a peak in new cases. The states at the bottom of the list will be the last to see relief for their healthcare workers and medical equipment. Doctors, nurses, medics, emergency personnel and medical support staffs will be working through the upcoming holidays. Virtually hug a caregiver; they may be the ones caring for you a few weeks from now. 

The news flow concerning the virus is non-stop since the entire world is engulfed and becoming swallowed-up by the pandemic. WHO says that young folks and people in good health may not receive a coronavirus vaccine until 2022. Doctors, nurses, medics and other healthcare professionals most exposed to covid should be vaccinated first. Everyone will be agreeable to that but the elite class will always greedily buy their way to vaccines ahead of the huddled masses, especially black and brown folks more susceptible to the perils of covid; this is the crony capitalism system. 

President Trump announces at a campaign rally that his son, Barron, had the virus. Trump says Barron was asymptomatic and recovered quickly and in true Donnie fashion paints the picture that the virus is harmless to young people. Americans were told over the last 1-1/2 weeks that First Lady Melania was asymptomatic but now the description of her illness changes. She says symptoms are moderate including fatigue, tiredness, headaches, a high temperature, all the same symptoms as a regular patient. Obviously, she was sicker than the country was told but what else is new? Trump tells you what he thinks you want to hear. Everyone is glad that the First Lady and Barron are feeling better. 

Trump coughs as he talks and you can hear phlegm in his throat so he may want to take it easy. The steroids may have made him feel like Superman, as well as feeding his aggressive personality, but perhaps the vigor the pills provided is short-lived? Trump likely had/has pneumonia and It is nothing to fool around with; a recurrence of pneumonia is almost always worse than the initial onset. He should be sitting on the sofa in the Oval Office sipping tea with honey. Hopefully, that cough and phlegm disappears from his throat quickly. 

The fiscal stimulus talks are breaking down. It is a circle-jerk of political baby games. The Senate, led by republican McConnell, only wants a small bill since many republicans are against any stimulus at all. The House, led by democrat Pelosi, wants a $2.2 trillion bill that covers testing and money to help states continue functioning. Trump is all over the map one day saying there will be no deal but 10 minutes later trying to cut mini-deals and now proclaiming that he wants a bill bigger than everyone else. Trump’s flip-flop behavior may have been due to the prescription drugs flowing through his body. 

Trump wants reelected that is what he wants. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin represents the Trump thinking and has offered $1.8 trillion in stimulus but the terms on spending the money are far apart. Trump does not want money going to states that he says mismanaged their finances over the years. Even if Mnuchin (Trump) and Pelosi agree on the dollar amount and terms, McConnell will not be able to push a big spending bill through the Senate. 

Pelosi and Mnuchin vow to keep talking but Mnuchin appears on television and comments that “getting something done before the election is difficult.” Stocks immediately lose the day’s gains and trade negatively the major indexes down -0.3%. At noon time, the stock indexes are down -0.8%. The SPX, S&P 500, the US stock market, finishes the day down -0.666% at 3489. Markets are becoming shaky as the pandemic worsens in Europe and the US and hopes for a stimulus bill disappear like sand falling through the fingers of an open palm. 

The political and corporate jack-asses controlling the nation return home each evening living the life of nobility. They dine on the tastiest cuts of meat and sleep on the finest quality satin sheets as the huddled masses worry about contracting covid, paying the rent and of course, eating. America is in a New Gilded Age a la the 1920’s. The United States is the land of the have’s and have not’s. The gap between rich and poor is the widest in over 50 years. The wealthy elite class destroyed the middle class over the last five decades solely for their own monetary gain. The greedy bastards. Payback will be a bitch.

Further proof of the sick greed in America is evidenced by information coming to light that when Trump was downplaying the virus in February, wealthy donors were being told the more serious story. The wealthy elite class then shorted the stock market and once the virus news deteriorated, as Trump and his cronies knew it would but did not tell common Americans, they made millions of dollars. Isn't America great? There are over 1,000 insider trades occurring per day on corrupt Wall Street. You don't actually think that the Wall Street money managers are strutting around in $4,000 custom-tailored Armani suits because they are good stock-picker's, do you? Everyone should be happy the crony capitalism system is crumbling. The sooner the country moves on the better.

The United States will enter a period like the 1960’s only it will not be solely about race and civil rights as much as income inequality; rich versus poor. Coronavirus makes the rich richer and poor even poorer. Dark times are on the horizon. If you are wealthy, you should be known for your generosity in the community and helping people, otherwise, you will have a big red bullseye on your back when the huddled masses begin searching for you with their pitchforks and torches. 

Note Added Thursday Morning, 10/15/20, at 8:00 AM EST: Senate leader McConnell wants to go forward with a vote for a skinned-down stimulus bill, same-o stuff, but President Trump tweets; “STIMULUS! Go big or go home!!!” slapping his own Republican Tribe members with three exclamation points. The tweet emboldens Pelosi. Recent studies indicate that humans with blood Type O can fight the virus better than other blood types. Doctors warn that the virus is spreading now from small gatherings so the Halloween and Thanksgiving holidays will be muted. Families will rethink their plans. The virus pandemic drama takes a turn for the worse overnight. Europe, and the world, is realizing how serious the outbreak is and some panic is beginning to set in. Asian and European stock markets sell off overnight and the US futures markets are pointing at losses of over -1%. The lack of a stimulus bill and worsening of the pandemic is creating a dark cloud over Thursday. France announces curfews in major cities including Paris. Hospitals are filling up fast. Germany’s Merkel imposes limits on specific regions and says more guidelines will follow. The UK imposes stricter measures to try and stop the pandemic. The Netherlands closes the bars for four weeks. What about the pot (marijuana) bars? Northern Ireland closes schools for two weeks and bars and restaurants for the next four weeks. The US and world sinks into the covid swamp as President Trump proclaims that the worst is over. The DAX (German) stock index is down -3%. FTSE (UK) -2%. CAC (France) -2%. MIB (Italy) -2%. 

Note Added Thursday Morning, 10/15/20, at 10:45 AM EST: The S&P 500 index is down 38 points, -1.1%, to 3450. The Dow Jones Industrials Index, watched by the public but only represents 30 blue-chip stocks, sinks 264 points, -0.9%, to 28250. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Index collapses -1.6%. DAX -3%. FTSE -2%. CAC -3%. MIB -3%. Gold 1900. Kamala Harris’s aid and one other person test positive for coronavirus. Harris was tested yesterday and was negative but she is cancelling appearances until Monday. A Biden staffer also tests positive for coronavirus but Biden continues testing negative. Mnuchin says he and Trump are agreeable to raising their offer of $1.8 trillion in stimulus. Donnie wants a stimulus bill bad to help him in the polls. He does not care how much it is; to Hell with fiscal conservatism. During these waning years of crony capitalism, it is comical to see the humans sell their souls each day.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 10/15/20, at 4:00 PM EST: The republicans drop an October surprise on the democrats accusing Joe Biden and son Hunter Biden with corrupt dealings in Ukraine and China. Facebook and Twitter block the information. Lawmakers on Capitol Hill summon the CEO's of these companies to Congress next week to explain why the story is stifled. The politics will get dirtier and dirtier ahead of the election. Biden and Trump are both holding town hall style events this evening. It was supposed to be the second debate but Trump backed out not wanting to do a virtual debate. The president is in South Carolina today and says he is being set up in tonight's town hall appearance. Donnie the showman knows how to draw in viewers. Trump will brag that his town hall was watched by more viewers than Biden's town hall which likely will be the case since people know that Trump will say outrageous things. Biden continues leading Trump in the polls and is receiving far more campaign donations coming down the stretch. Women voters are leaning towards Biden and the women elect the president (about 55% of the voters are female and 45% male). Trump touts a study on covid patients that he interprets as 85% of the people that wear masks contract coronavirus. Trump uses the study to reinforce his behavior of not wearing a mask. The study actually questioned patients already ill with covid and asked them if they had wore a mask and 85% said yes. Of course they will say yes and especially to a doctor or healthcare practitioner; the patient does not want anyone to think less of them. And besides, you can wear a mask all the time but for a few minutes let your guard down and that is when you may become infected. Trump proclaims that the United States is "doing fine" in its fight against coronavirus. 970 Americans died of covid yesterday. 222,000 are dead overall from covid. If that is doing fine, the average American scratches his bald head and wonders what doing bad would look like? Former Governor Christie, that was in the hospital with covid after the Rose Garden superspreader event including a week in the ICU, performs a mea culpa saying he was wrong about not wearing masks and now encourages everyone to follow the guidelines from the doctors and scientists. He changes his tune. Sounds like Christie may have felt the hand of Christ as he battled the coronavirus demon with his life on the line. Like the old saying goes, there are no atheist's in fox holes. When the bullets are whizzing over your head, and shells are kicking up dirt and shrapnel that is spraying the foxhole, and the sound is deafening piercing your eardrums, and you can feel that you just sh*t your pants, you will be down on your knees in that foxhole praying to the All Mighty like you never prayed before.

Note Added Friday Morning, 10/16/20: Trump says he will muscle McConnell and the republicans if Mnuchin and Pelosi can agree on a stimulus deal. This is political theater and the common American in the audience is told to eat cake. Biden and Trump conduct competing town halls last evening with Sleepy Joe's event more laid back with ABC News offering up soft balls the septuagenarian easily hit out of the park. King Trump's event on NBC, CNBC and MSNBC was more boisterous and confrontational with an aggressive president debating an aggressive host Savannah Guthrie. Trump does not dispute that his businesses owe $400 million in debt that is coming due soon but he brags that his real estate is worth far more. That may be true but he is misleading the public. Most of the properties with the gaudy Trump signs in gold are owned by others that simply pay a fee to Donnie for using the Trump brand name. People assume that his name on the building means he owns it; this is not true and usually not the case. Donnie is very animated these days so it would be surprising if he was actually not taking any prescription drugs as he claims. The Biden town hall is watched by 14 million folks while the Trump town hall, playing on three networks as opposed to one, is watched by 13 million. Perhaps people, especially women voters, are seeking what they perceive as calm instead of four more years of the daily bombastic drama and insult parade. Both candidates hit the campaign trail today focusing on the battleground states such as Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, North Carolina, Arizona and others. Trump continues to say America is 'rounding the corner' with the pandemic, which is delusional; he needs to take the time to look at the data. Biden gets a one-liner in saying that Trump already rounded the corner and 'he went 'round the bend' (Biden rolls his eyes and moves his fist and thumb, in a hitchhike pose, back and forth insinuating that the president has lost it mentally). Pfizer says its vaccine will be ready for approval before Thanksgiving (third week of November). Europe is sinking deep into the covid quagmire with new cases ramping higher each day. Brit's have lost confidence in PM Johnson. Nations are in chaos and floundering, changing guidelines daily, with populations confused and sick of the restrictions just as the pandemic is worsening. A study is released that says Remdesivir is not as helpful in fighting covid as thought and does not significantly reduce the mortality rate. The president took this drug made by Gilead. GILD stock drops -2% and is down -3% this week. Gilead questions the findings since it is an outlier as compared to other studies. Georgia, USA, hospitals are running at near 90% capacity. Wisconsin continues down the coronavirus rabbit hole with conditions deteriorating daily but here comes Donnie. Trump plans a campaign rally in Wisconsin this weekend, where lots of folks will not wear masks, in the middle of a pandemic spinning out of control. The test positivity rate in Wisconsin is a mind-blowing 23%!!! Dear Lord. 1 out of every 4 people tested in Wisconsin have the virus! The US Surgeon General warns that Wisconsin is "going in the wrong direction." Thanks for the input, Captain Obvious. In the southwestern US, Governor Lujan Grisham decrees, "This is the most severe  emergency New Mexico has ever faced." Meanwhile, as he plans the next campaign rally in the middle of an escalating pandemic, King Donnie says America is rounding the corner. Curious minds wonder what color is the sky in Donnie's world? The pandemic is Trump's Waterloo.

Note Added Sunday, 10/18/20: Trump carries out campaign rallies in Michigan and Wisconsin yesterday and Nevada today as coronavirus cases increase. As usual, many folks at the Trump events are not wearing masks and the entire crowd is not social distancing. It is bazaar. The events are known to create virus infections such as the Minnesota rally, the Tulsa rally that killed Herman Cain and the Rose Garden superspreader event that had Chris Christie fighting for his life. The president is returning to the 2016 playbook and believes that if he keeps holding rallies in the battleground states into the election he will win. At the same time, Trump, and his surrogates keep proclaiming that the worst of the coronavirus pandemic is behind us. This is not a good strategy for the president since, as evidenced by the data and charts above, the pandemic will likely worsen into election day. In two weeks, Trump may sound like a raving lunatic, like Nero fiddling as Rome is burning, or Baghdad Bob, saying all is fine while the pandemic spins out of control. The discussions from springtime concerning PPE, ventilators, hospitals capacities, testing kits, will resurface as the pandemic escalates. The US stiffed a couple companies on ventilators, such as Philips, cancelling the orders. The US has done this in the past. That is why it was difficult to ramp up PPE (personal protective equipment; gowns, gloves, shields, etc..) production in March and April. During a virus outbreak years ago, an American company cranked out the PPE at the government's request and then the US stiffed that company leaving them with having to unload mountains of PPE below cost. Needless to say, that company did not ramp up production in the spring. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me. The world drowns in a sea of untrustworthiness. The fiscal stimulus talks are a mess. Senate Leader McConnell plans a vote for the smaller $500 billion package on Wednesday. House Leader Pelosi is talking to Mnuchin and says an agreement must be reached in 48 hours to get a stimulus bill before the election. Trump says he wants a large stimulus. Pelosi says the republicans remove one-half the funding for coronavirus testing, tracking and tracing. There are too many cooks stirring the fiscal stimulus pot; McConnell, Pelosi, Mnuchin who is supposed to be representing Trump, but Trump changes his mind on a whim without even telling Mnuchin. That is four entities trying to reach an agreement. Generally, markets are hopeful that a stimulus bill will occur. US and European futures markets point to higher stock prices on Monday.

Note Added Monday, 10/19/20: President Trump is in Arizona for two rallies. The Tucson mayor is asking the president to follow mask-wearing guidelines but he does not care. The president's task force doctor, Scott Atlas, tweets a message that begins with; "Masks work? No." Twitter removes the message calling it misinformation. Dr Fauci was on the 60 Minutes news television program last evening discussing the pandemic and the Rose garden superspreader event. Trump is not happy today calling Fauci an "Idiot" and a "disaster." Trump says, "People are tired of covid....tired of hearing Fauci." Even Trump enthusiasts wonder why the president is attacking Fauci; what purpose does it serve? Trump is likely blaming Fauci for the pandemic response to divert the attention from himself. Fauci has a higher popularity rating than Trump. The president says the US is rounding the corner with the virus even without the vaccines. This is stupid talk. Trump needs to look at the data. Trump calls the liberal-leaning cable news network CNN "dumb bastards." Biden and Trump face off in the final debate on Thursday night and the moderator will be equipped with a mute button due to the argumentative and chaotic first debate. The second debate was cancelled after Trump refused to participate in a virtual debate (which was structured that way due to his coronavirus illness). Director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota Michal Osterholm warns, "The next six to 12 weeks are going to be the darkest of the entire pandemic." China is building up military power at the coastal areas near Taiwan and may be planning an invasion and foray into the island. China is testing the United States to see if it will defend Taiwan. America must defend Taiwan against the filthy communists. The world is in serious trouble not realizing the extreme danger China, the CCP (Chinese Communist Party), poses on the planet; the CCP has already enslaved the Chinese people for 70 years. The fiscal stimulus drama continues in Washington, DC. Mnuchin and Pelosi keep talking but it does not appear a deal may be reached before the election. The S&P 500 drops 57 points, -1.6%, to 3427. The Dow Jones Industrials drop 411 points, -1.4%, to 28195. The Nasdaq Index dumps -1.7%. Gold 1905.

Note Added Thursday, 10/22/20: A volunteer in the AstraZeneca and Oxford University COVID-19 vaccine study in Brazil kills over dead. Spokesmen say they do not want to release details but say the patient had taken the placebo. A different study had refused to say whether it was the placebo or not. AZN stock is down -2% this week. AstraZeneca and the Johnson & Johnson trials may restart in the days ahead. The CDC revises the already confusing guidelines concerning coronavirus. 'Cumulative exposure' is added to the coronavirus definitions where a person may become infected after several smaller interactions with infected people add up over time. The fiscal stimulus game continues. Pelosi says, "We're almost there." The stock market rallies off its intraday lows. President Trump needs to bolster the female vote so it would be helpful if First Lady Melania was on the campaign trail but she and son Barron are nursing lingering coughs from the coronavirus. The last presidential debate is this evening and Trump needs to make up ground. People will be watching to see if the First Lady shows up. The mud is flying. Joe Biden and son Hunter may be involved in a Ukraine scandal while Donnie is exposed as having a Chinese bank account. Former President Obama spoke last evening stumping for Biden taking Trump to task. Boom. Spain hits 1 million virus cases. Bang. Argentina hits 1 million cases. France is a hair away and proclaims that the second virus wave is hitting Europe. The FDA approves Gilead's Remdesivir for use in treating covid (it was approved for emergency use when Trump received it as part of his treatment). GILD stock pops +8%. Trump tests negative for covid as he flies to Nashville for the debate this evening. Italy and Germany are reporting record new coronavirus cases. Curfews are being imposed across Europe that is descending into COVID-19 Hell. The US presidential debate occurs and is much calmer than the first debate. Biden paints a picture of a "dark winter" ahead and America must focus on handling the virus. Trump claims he is immune to covid and continues to paint a rosy picture about the pandemic saying the virus is going away and the treatments and therapies are coming. Generally, Biden is perceived as a better choice for handling the pandemic while Trump is perceived as a better choice for handling the economy. The pandemic is worsening in the States and may become a pivotal factor over the next 11 days. If the coronavirus keeps spreading, there is no economy. First Lady Melania joined Trump on the trip to the Nashville, Tennessee, debate so it is great that she must be feeling better. The key day for new case data is Friday. Perhaps more organizations simply tally their numbers that way. Tomorrow's US new cases number will dictate whether the virus is truly worsening and America will be in big trouble for the days and weeks ahead, or, if the cases subside, signal that the virus will linger and the current status quo continues.

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