By K E Stone (Keystone)
America blows it, again, failing to flatten the coronavirus
(COVID-19) active cases bell curve chart. Today, Wednesday, 10/14/20, the
United States is once again in a world of sh*t.
For the US active cases chart shown above, the data is
blowing out higher, which is a bad thing, and the bell curve shape fails to develop.
Coronavirus is a lingering dark cloud hanging over America into the holiday season.
The COVID-19 pandemic in the US is in a third pulse of the initial wave, or third surge, or a
third wave, if you prefer. Each time the active cases curve tries to flatten
and roll over, Americans become lax and begin partying and socializing more and
bang; the virus spreads again.
The orange dashes in the chart show where America blew it; seven
times in all so far. For the last six weeks, the curve flattened but instead of
rolling over to the downside it now sadly ticks higher again. The key time was
late May early June. If Trump would have not been downplaying the virus, by his
own admission, and instead told the American people to remain hunkered down
through Memorial Day, for only another couple weeks, the year would have
evolved far differently (for the better).
The virus could have been nipped in the bud back then, just
as it was for so many other nations, but instead Americans went to the beaches
to party on the Memorial Day holiday weekend. The parties, protests, riots,
campaign rallies, concerts and other large events send the active cases curve
higher. Asian nations are more skilled at handling viruses since they have been
dealing with outbreaks for the last couple decades. America is floundering. US
citizens enjoy freedom and ease of movement around the nation and generally do
not embrace mask-wearing.
The same failures in flattening the curve repeat over and
over. There is an uptick in cases after the Independence Day holiday on July
4th and the current uptick in the active cases chart occurs due to the Labor
Day parties, people returning to sports events, campaign rallies, large events,
businesses reopening and young people returning to schools and universities.
The Sturgis motorcycle rally in South Dakota in August spreads the virus. The
Dakota’s report the highest number of new cases ever. The protests, riots and
social unrest in the US this year also contributes to the spread of the virus.
Trump’s campaign rallies also spread the virus. In June, at
the Tulsa, Oklahoma, event, former presidential candidate and Trump confidant
Herman Cain likely contracted covid. He was admitted to the hospital 11 days
later, fought the good fight for about a month, then croaked. The Rose Garden
superspreader event on 9/26/20 results in a dozen infections and counting.
Trump likely caught covid during an event. Trump, lagging in the polls against
Biden, continues with the rallies since he is trying to push a big voter
turnout for republicans.
Many attendees at the Trump events do not wear masks or
practice social distancing resulting in more covid spread. Trump’s insistence
on holding the rallies and bringing people together to become sick are hurting
him in the polls especially among the senior population. Older folks are
worried about contracting the virus and many view Trump’s rallies as
irresponsible and uncaring towards the attendees. At the latest campaign rally
event at an airport hangar, Trump brags that he is immune to coronavirus as he
awkwardly dances to the techno-beat of the YMCA disco song.
The latest peak in the active cases chart is 10/14/20,
today, but the ongoing data would be expected to blow-out higher and the curve
continue higher. Based on the peak in new cases on 7/24/20, the active cases
chart was expected to peak on 8/21/20 and it did flatten from late August,
through September, until now. The new peak in new cases for this third impulse
wave, or third wave, is 10/14/20 so adding 28 days (as per the Keystone Model)
is 11/11/20 when the active cases chart would next be expected to flatten and
hopefully roll over to create the bell shape and prove that the virus is going
to be defeated. The United States will not defeat the virus until the active
cases curve flattens and rolls over to the downside to create the bell shape
which will take many weeks. Currently, in mid-October, the country is going in
the wrong direction.
On the US active cases chart above, the brown circle shows
where the curve started to flatten on 9/1/20 and this ran into October but the
curve is now blowing out higher again (red circle) verifying a new escalation
in the pandemic. This behavior is similar to early June when it felt like the
pandemic was subsiding and on its way out but then the infections due to the
Memorial Day parties hit hard. Now the infections are rising due to the end-of-summer
Labor Day parties and folks returning to work and school. The new cases are
peaking today but this may continue (blue circle). The purple circle in the chart is the
projection of a flattening of the curve on 11/11/20 based on the Keystone Model
explained below, however, the forecast for the top in the active cases bell
curve would have to be pushed forward if new cases keep rising.
The flattening of the active cases bell curve ran from 9/1/20 to 10/10/20 which was 40 days (six weeks) of hope, that the coronavirus would finally subside. Sadly, the US active cases chart blew out higher again and Keystone captured this moment in the 10/10/20 article, "Coronavirus (COVID-19) New and Active Cases Charts; AMERICA BLEW IT AGAIN!; US Fails to Flatten the Active Cases Bell Curve Chart; Highest Active Cases Ever; New Cases Highest Since August."
For the US new cases chart, the three waves are distinct.
Since the new cases are moving higher again creating a third wave, or impulse,
higher, that 10/14/20 peak in new cases (10/9 and 10/14 are the two highs in
the red circle) should be used to target the peak in active cases (maximum
strain on healthcare workers and equipment) 28 days hence which is mid-November.
The key peaks in the new cases data occur on Fridays probably because of the
way the data is gathered or tabulated. Watch the new cases reported for this
Friday, 9/16/20 (chart is probably updated the following morning), since they
will tell the story forward. That 7-day moving average is looking ugly ramping
ever higher. You will begin smelling a bit of panic in the air going forward.
The Pennsylvania, USA, new cases chart is shown above. The
Keystone State is in deep trouble after it handled the virus well in the spring.
Sadly, yesterday, 10/13/20, the new cases spike to 1,829 the highest since 4/30/20;
April! Adding 28 days to this second wave new cases peak forecasts a peak in
the active cases chart on 11/10/20; mid-November. The virus is spreading in the
United States and around the world. The huddled masses do not realize the
sh*tstorm coming their way. Santa Claus may be delivering covid in your
stocking this year. Pennsylvania is a key battleground state and the road to
the Whitehouse goes through the Keystone State.
Ohio, USA, is another battleground state (leaning for Trump)
and its new cases chart is shown above. Ohio has just blown out higher with new
cases and its active cases curve. The Buckeye State is sinking deep into the
covid ooze. Ohio republican Senator DeWine says Ohio is going in the wrong
direction according to every virus metric.
Germany’s new cases chart is shown above with a peak in new
cases today, 10/14/20, that matches the March highs. Other nations are in
equally bad shape. France reports the highest number of cases ever, nearly 27K,
on 10/10/20. Using the 28-day period as per the Keystone Model, France’s active
cases curve is not expected to flatten until 11/7/20.
Russia’s new cases chart is shown above. That’s nasty. Dear
Lord. Have Mercy on Their Souls. It’s bad enough the Russki’s are sitting
around eating cold borscht each day but now they are sick with covid. Based on the
10/14/20 new cases peak date, Russia’s active cases curve would not be expected
to flatten until 11/11/20; mid-November. Dictator Putin, protected in his
covid-free bubble, must handle an ever-increasing angry population. Nearly 300
Russians die from coronavirus over the last 24 hours.
J&J, Johnson & Johnson, also known as Johnny-John by
stock traders transacting large blocks of shares, halts its vaccine drug trials
due to a patient becoming ill. J&J said they will provide more information
after an investigation. JNJ stock sells off -3% on the news.
Eli Lilly postpones its antibody trials due to a patient
becoming sick. This is a treatment similar to what the president received. LLY
stock slips -5%. Doctors say the halts and delays at the pharmaceutical
companies during the final trials is standard fare but the news will only cause
Americans to further distrust the vaccine and antibody treatments being pushed
through at, what President Trump calls, ‘warp speed’.
The Pfizer and BioNTech trials, using messenger RNA (mRNA)
technology, continue and results are expected this month. The Moderna vaccine
trial data is expected directly after the Pfizer/BioNTech data. Thus, Trump may
receive some good news a couple days before the election on 11/3/20. The Trump
ship would sink if these pharma’s were to delay their trials at this late
stage.
Dr Fauci says the United States is “facing a whole lot of
trouble” heading into the winter season. New cases are on the rise as well as
the 7-day moving average of new cases. The test positivity rates are rising in
the Midwest and Northwest states. Sure as night follows day and day, night, an
increase in test positivity rates leads to an increase in new cases which
creates more hospitalizations which results in more deaths.
As humans return indoors in the northern hemisphere during
the colder weather, Fauci says the coming weeks and months could be the
“perfect set-up for an acceleration of respiratory borne diseases.” Coronavirus
and the yearly flu’s circulate in the ventilations systems and on surfaces. You
would be wise to make sure that disgruntled, unhappy, perhaps asymptomatic,
coworker is not walking around licking doorknobs.
Covid hit in the wintertime, December 2019 and January 2020,
and expanded from there. There was a lull in the virus in the late springtime
in most regions around the US except for states such as Florida, Texas and
Arizona that saw increases in infections. Why? It’s easily explained. Those are
warm states and folks escape the hot spring and summer sun by remaining indoors
in the air conditioning and thus more readily exposed to the aerosolized coronavirus.
Fauci continues voicing disappointment and unhappiness that
President Trump used him in a campaign ad. Fauci says he remains neutral to
political parties and dedicated his life to fighting infectious diseases. Fauci
says the pandemic is historic the worse in 102 years and proclaims, “I’m not
going to walk away from this outbreak no matter who’s the president.”
There are a few positives in the virus sea of misery. First, asymptomatic people are likely not transmitting the virus as much
as originally thought since they are not sniffling, sneezing, coughing,
spitting, etc… Second, children may not pass the virus to each other as fast as
it transmits from adult to adult. Thus, the worry that kids will bring the
virus home to adults may be overblown.
Third, even though the US appears to be descending into a rough patch again, the death count may not grow as high as predicted. Young people are contracting the virus at a faster rate these days but they also can fight the virus far easier, and many remain asymptomatic. First Lady Melania is 50 years old and she makes it through the virus gauntlet asymptomatically. President Trump had complications since he is 74 years old (born in June). Fourth, we know a lot more about fighting covid now than eight months ago and this knowledge of drugs, treatments and therapies will reduce deaths going forward.
The 69-70 age is a cut-off point in the US where those
younger experience a near miniscule death rate but those older have a 3% to 5%
chance of dying (1 in 20). Try to delay your birthday and remain younger than 69
forever.
Remember to keep your immune system boosted and healthy. A
daily regimen of zinc, vitamin A, vitamin C, vitamin D-3 and turmeric will do
you good. You should be taking turmeric every day anyways. Zinc is key in
fighting covid. During the March/April population panic when store shelves went
bare, zinc disappeared quickly, so it would be wise to secure a bottle before
the pending rush. All the supplements and vitamins mentioned are dirt cheap so
you have no excuse for not taking care of yourself and do not forget to check
with your doctor or nurse practitioner for advice or to ask questions. The US
is likely slipping into a similar panic situation like the springtime so stand
ready.
The presidential election race continues with 11/3/20 only
20 days away. On Monday evening, 10/12/20, President Trump officially returns
to the campaign trail for the first rally since contracting covid. The crowd of
a few thousand people are mixing together with the majority not wearing masks.
The president may be labeled as Typhoid Trump (Typhoid Mary) once the history
books are written for conducting numerous superspreader events during a
pandemic.
Fauci, other doctors, scientists and the medical community
are aghast at Trump’s behavior and insistence on conducting campaign rallies
since people will become sick from these events. A September Trump event in
Minnesota has led to nine covid infections with one person in the ICU. Trump
needs the seniors to vote for him and getting them sick at campaign events is
not a good approach.
The president claims that he is immune but the jury is out
and, if so, what does it mean? Most doctors believe that patients do develop an
immunity that lasts several months even though there are cases surfacing of
people contracting covid twice. Coronavirus may variate and mutate over time
and this is not yet understood. Coronavirus will be around a long time and may
recur each year like the flu. Ebola has not yet been eradicated. Asian nations
are showing lower death rates than the US and this may be due to those nations
having some type of immunity in place inside many individuals. Also, the Asian
nations are far more agreeable and accepting of mask-wearing and social
distancing practices which help maintain lower infection rates.
Trump is bragging and boasting during yesterday’s campaign
rally proclaiming, “They say I’m immune, I can feel, I feel so powerful, l’ll walk
into that audience, I’ll walk in there, I’ll kiss everyone in that audience, I’ll
kiss the guys and the beautiful women and the, everybody, just give you a big
fat kiss.” Trump appears animated from medications even though he says he is
not taking any. Trump’s behavior is odd since it is not winning votes with
seniors that are afraid of contracting covid and dying. Most people understand that
Trump has special care available and recovered because of treatments not
available to anyone else, so the president’s braggadocio style is not a good
look. Trump’s base, however, loves the rallies. He tosses fresh red meat to the
blood-thirsty ravenous fans, donning red MAGA hats, that, in return, provide
the adoration the president seeks; it is a closed mutual admirations society but
there are probably not enough of them to push Trump over the line in three
weeks.
The polls show that Trump’s behavior during and after his
illness is causing seniors to lean towards Biden. Trump sustained a one-two
punch in the polls. An ABC News/Washington Post national poll shows Biden with
a commanding 12-point advantage over Trump. The polls have Biden up from 8 to
12 points and 4 points is typically the margin of error. Trump has is work cut
out for him.
At the same time, democrats are not gloating since they
remember the last election when Hillary Clinton was ahead in the polls, and she
did receive over 3 million more votes, winning the popular vote, but lost the
election since Trump won the battleground states and Electoral College
advantage which is what matters. Trump needs the polls in the battleground
states (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, etc…) to close within 3 or
4 points at the margin of error to give himself a fighting chance. Florida is
close right now but other states show Biden with leads above the margin of
error. Also, Biden’s popularity is a touch above 50% as compared to Trump in
the low 40%’s. Four years ago, Hillary Clinton never got above 50% popularity.
America is a representative republic where the
republican-leaning folks in the Midwest have the same say in government as the
left-leaning folks on the West and East Coasts even though the populations in
these regions are massively different. If the president is elected by the
popular vote, this is simply a majority-rules government, or mob society, if
you will. Individuals with special needs or desires, or that simply want to
live their life differently than the mainstream population, that are not
represented with a large voting block of people, are forgotten and/or
mistreated and discriminated against under a mob rule system versus the Electoral
College system.
Trump stupidly backed out of the next debate scheduled for
tomorrow. It was to be a town hall event in Miami, Florida. It’s funny. For
months, Americans are told to wait for the debates when Trump would make
mince-meat out of Biden and instead Sleepy Joe won the first debate. At the
same time, the republican mouth pieces, led by Rush Limbaugh, said Biden would
drop out of the debates before they started. Wrong again and comically, Trump
is the one that ends up dropping out of the second debate. The president could
get his message out to millions of people, especially the independents he
needs, but does not want to participate in a virtual debate. The debate
commission said the second debate would be virtual due to Trump’s illness and the
ongoing virus spread at the Whitehouse.
The Labor Secretary Eugene Scalia’s (son of deceased Supreme
Court Justice Scalia) wife, that attended the Rose Garden superspreader event,
tests positive for coronavirus. The drip, drip, drip of news of people attending
Trump events becoming sick with covid is not helping Donnie in the polls.
On Tuesday evening, 10/13/20, Trump conducts a second rally
in as many days this one in Johnstown, Pennsylvania, in the scenic Laurel
Highlands of southwestern Pennsylvania; Keystone’s backyard. Level-headed
people reside in this region and typically pick the presidential candidate that
wins. Thus, both Trump and Biden are
making numerous campaign stops in the greater Pittsburgh area and points east
of the city such as Latrobe, historic Ligonier and Johnstown, kissing voter’s
butts. Folks around here will be happy when 11/4/20 arrives so the campaign
commercials on television will end.
China’s coronavirus bioweapon, spawned at the two Wuhan
laboratories, has infected 38.4 million people around the world killing 1.1
million souls. Nearly 29 million people have recovered. The Chinese communists
unleash bioterrorism upon the planet.
The Wuhan Flu, President Trump calls it the China Virus, has
attacked and sickened nearly 8.1 million Americans (2.5% of the 330 million US
population; 1 in every 40 citizens), the highest number of cases in the world,
murdering nearly 222K United States citizens. 5.2 million Americans have
recovered. America is only 4% of the world’s population but has one-fifth (21%)
of the coronavirus cases and one-fifth (20%) of the deaths.
China unleashes bioterrorism upon the world while restarting
their economy. The communist nation is getting back to normal while the rest of
the world cleans up the Chinese mess. China owes the world restitution for
releasing their experimental Wuhan Flu bioweapon on the earth’s population.
China must pay for its bioterrorism and crimes against humanity. Dirtbag
Dictator Xi is Hitler incarnate responsible for murdering 1.1 million humans;
his sick communist soul is destined for the worst levels of Dante’s Inferno.
The USA has the greatest number of total coronavirus cases in
the world followed by India, Brazil, Russia, Spain, Colombia, Argentina, Peru, Mexico,
France, South Africa, UK, Iran, Chile, Iraq, Bangladesh, Italy, Philippines,
Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Germany, Pakistan and Israel. Spain and
Argentina move higher on the list indicating that the virus is worsening. Ditto
France. Iraq is also in worse shape with its total cases.
An update for The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection
Rate Model (TKSCIRM) is provided since another 10-day period passes, and more
data and information are available. This is Article 22 in the coronavirus
series that provides real-time information for historians, teachers, students, journalists,
economists, market participants, corporate executives, financial managers, doctors,
nurses, medical personnel, researchers, public officials and politicians
studying the COVID-19 pandemic. This twenty-second article is published on
Wednesday, 10/14/20.
The Keystone Speculator’s Coronavirus Series of Articles are
the only real-time source of information available continuously chronicling the
ongoing COVID-19 pandemic during 2020. Readers live and breathe the pandemic,
the worst in a century, as it occurs in real-time, from the beginning.
The first article in the coronavirus series is US
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infections Chart 3/15/20; The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus Infection Rate Model; US COVID-19 Infections Surpass 3,300; Federal
Reserve Blinks and Cuts Interest Rates to the Zero Bound Embracing ZIRP and
Announcing $700 Billion QE Program; US Futures Tank Limit-Down; Coronavirus
Archive Article 1 published 3/15/20.
The second article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 3/24/20; Italy Daily Cases Leveling Off;
US Daily Cases Continue Rising; Congress Negotiating Fiscal Stimulus Bill;
Coronavirus Archive Article 2 published 3/24/20.
The third article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/3/20; Italy Daily Active Cases
Peaking; United States Faces Ugly Coronavirus Pain Ahead; US Monthly Jobs
Report; Coronavirus Archive Article 3 published 4/3/20.
The fourth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/13/20; US Active Cases Continue
Rising; India, Indonesia, Singapore, Japan, Russia, Peru, Ecuador and UK Headed
for Trouble; Second Wave Worries; President Trump Ushers in Age of MMT (Modern
Monetary Theory (Limitless Spending)); Rampant Job Losses; People in Need; Finger-Pointing
Begins; Worldwide COVID-19 Cases Top 2 Million; Coronavirus Archive Article 4
published 4/13/20.
The fifth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/23/20; Australia, South Korea,
Switzerland, Germany, Hong Kong, Taiwan and China are Coronavirus Success
Stories; Italy, France and Spain Finally at Top of Active Case Bell Curve; UK,
Ecuador, Japan, Turkey, Peru, Brazil, Canada, Indonesia, India, Russia, Mexico
and Singapore Brace for Virus Pain; Countries Anxious to Restart Economies;
“Flattening the Curve” Term Misused; Ongoing Shortages of Virus Testing
Supplies and PPE (Personal Protective equipment); Congress Passes $484 Billion
Spending Bill; US COVID-19 Deaths Top 50,000; GRIM VIRUS NEWS 4/25/20; Coronavirus
Archive Article 5 published on 4/23/20.
The sixth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate model Update 5/3/20; America Restarts Economy as New
Virus Cases Increase; US Active Cases Not Expected to Peak Until 5/21/20; 68K
Americans Dead from COVID-19 More Than Vietnam War; Testing Deficiencies
Continue; Coronavirus Preferentially Hurts Black Community; Brazil, Nigeria,
South Africa, India, Russia, Mexico and Chile Descend Into COVID-19 Hell this
Month; US-China Relations Collapsing; President Trump Says 100K People May Die;
U of W Model Says 134K May Die in US; Coronavirus Article 6 published on
5/3/20.
The seventh article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 5/14/20; Russia, India, Nigeria, Brazil,
UK and Philippines Remain Mired in Virus Trouble; South Africa, Indonesia,
Chile, Peru and Mexico are in COVID-19 Hell; America Restarts Economy Before
Flattening the Curve; Texas, California, New Jersey and New York Worst Virus
States; Testing Deficiencies Persist; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Second
Wave Fears; Coronavirus Article 7 published on 5/14/20.
The eighth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 5/24/20; Math Explains the Black and
Latino Infections and Ongoing Coronavirus Zeitgeist; Russia, Poland, Brazil,
Peru, Bolivia, Chile, Argentina, Columbia, Honduras, Mexico, India, Pakistan,
Bangladesh, Indonesia, Nigeria, Kenya, Egypt and South Africa in COVID-19 Hell;
America Restarts Economy; US Active Cases Curve Finally Flattens; New York,
Florida, Ohio, Washington, California, Texas, Arkansas and North Carolina are
Worst States Not Yet Able to Flatten the Curve; Coronavirus Tragedy Turns
Political; President Trump Refuses to Wear a Mouth Diaper (Face Mask); Hertz
Goes Bankrupt; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Second Wave Fears; Trump
Golfs; US DEATHS EXCEED 100,000; Coronavirus Article 8 published on 5/24/20.
The ninth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/3/20; Indonesia, Philippines, Egypt,
Kenya, South Africa, Mexico, Honduras, Columbia, Brazil, Peru, Bolivia, Chile,
Argentina, Bangladesh, Pakistan and India are in COVID-19 Hell; America
Continues Reopening the Economy; US Active Cases Curve Finally Flattens
(Tentatively); Texas, Arkansas, North Carolina and California are Troubled
States; Second Wave Worries Continue; US-China Relations Deteriorating;
Population Becoming Complacent About COVID-19; Coronavirus Article 9 published
on 6/3/20.
The tenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/13/20; Philippines, Peru, Iran, Kenya,
Poland, Sweden, India, Indonesia, Honduras, Brazil, Bolivia, Chile, Pakistan,
Bangladesh, South Africa, Egypt, Columbia and Argentina are in COVID-19 Hell;
US Virus Cases Rising in Many States Due to Increased Testing, Reopening the
Economy, Protests and Large Groups Gathering; Arizona, Texas, Arkansas, South
Carolina, North Carolina, California and Florida are in Serious Trouble;
President Trump Moves Republican Convention to Florida Where Virus Cases are
Spiking; Protests and Riots Increase Around the World; US Police Under Scrutiny
for Racial Injustice; Public Health Authorities Clueless; Coronavirus Article
10 published on 6/13/20.
The eleventh article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/23/20; Pandemic in the Sunbelt (US
South and West); Arizona, California, Texas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Florida,
Carolina’s, Arkansas and New Mexico are US Hot-Spots; Houston Running Out of
Beds; South Asia, America’s and Africa Experiencing COVID-19 Hell; US, Bolivia,
Argentina, Guatemala, India and Philippines are in Serious Trouble;
Deteriorating US-China Relations and Increasing US COVID-19 Cases Creating
Market Angst; Coronavirus Article 11 published on 6/23/20.
The twelfth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 7/4/20; US Experiencing Dramatic Uptick
in Cases as President Trump and Vice President Pence Signal the All-Clear;
Ohio, Florida, Carolina’s, Arkansas, Georgia, California, Alabama, Arizona,
Texas and Oklahoma are in COVID-19 Hell; Texas, Arizona and Florida are
Reaching Limits on ICU Beds; US, Bolivia, Argentina, Colombia, Guatemala,
Honduras, Mexico, Philippines, Indonesia, India, Bangladesh, South Africa and
Kenya are in Serious Coronavirus Trouble; COVID-19 Timeline; Coronavirus Article
12 published on 7/4/20.
The thirteenth article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 7/14/20; President Trump
Pressures States to Reopen Schools; Donnie Finally Dons a Face Diaper; US Death
Numbers Controversy Explained; RNC (Republican) Convention in Jeopardy; Kansas,
Washington, Tennessee, Alaska, the Carolina’s, Idaho, Wisconsin, Arkansas,
Oregon, Ohio, Louisiana, Georgia, Utah, Montana, Alabama, Oklahoma, Missouri
and Kentucky Join Florida, Texas, Arizona and California in the Coronavirus
Cesspool; Oman, India, El Salvador, Bolivia, Argentina, South Africa, Romania,
Mexico, Colombia and USA are in COVID-19 Hell; US-China Relations
Deteriorating; Italy Textbook Bell Curve; New Kazakhstan Virus; Coronavirus
Article 13 published on 7/14/20.
The fourteenth article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 7/24/20; President Trump
Reverses Course Touting Mask Use and Restarting Coronavirus Press Conferences;
Over 20 Million Americans Remain Unemployed; New Mexico, Alabama, Wisconsin,
Arkansas, Alaska, North Carolina, California, Oklahoma and Missouri are the
Most-Infected States; US Healthcare System is Under Heavy Pressure Through
August; Australia, Hong Kong and Japan Hit with Second Waves; India, El
Salvador, Argentina, South Africa, Romania, Brazil, Bolivia, Mexico,
Kazakhstan, Colombia, Kenya and United States are Most-Infected Nations; US-China
Tensions Escalate; US Congress Negotiating Another Stimulus Bill; Coronavirus
Article 14 published on 7/24/20.
The fifteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 8/3/20; Australia, Hong Kong, Japan,
Spain and Peru Handling Second Wave; Philippines, Colombia, Bolivia, Mexico,
India, Ukraine, El Salvador, Peru, Spain, Argentina, Romania and Brazil in
COVID-19 Hell; 41 US States Show Active Cases Curves Continuing Higher; 9 US
States are in a Second Wave; Coronavirus Particle Size Analysis and Aerosol
Behavior; Public Restrooms and Fecal Matter May Be Major Factors in Virus
Transmission; Testing Troubles Continue; AstraZeneca Granted Protection from
Vaccine Liability; Coronavirus Article 15 published on 8/3/20.
The sixteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 8/13/20; Finally Good Pandemic News for
the United States; Europe Slipping Into Second Wave Behavior; Most Problematic
Virus-Infected Nations are India, Philippines, Romania, Ukraine, Iraq,
Colombia, Peru, Bolivia, Argentina, El Salvador, Netherlands, Belgium, France
and Spain; Worst US States are Kentucky, California, Mississippi, Illinois,
Indiana, Arkansas, Virginia, Idaho, Wisconsin, North Dakota and Hawaii; US
Congress Deadlocked on Stimulus Bill After President Trump Signs Executive Order;
US Testing Troubles Continue; Good News Turns Bad with US Active Cases Resuming
the Uptrend; Coronavirus Article 16 published on 8/13/20.
The seventeenth article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 8/23/20; US is Struggling to
‘Flatten the Curve’; Australia, Hong Kong and Japan Defeat the Second Wave;
European Countries Mired in Second Wave Include France, Spain, Italy, Belgium,
Netherlands, Finland, Ireland, Austria, Switzerland, Germany, Greece, Poland
and Czechia; Peru, Nepal, Turkey and UAE are also in Second Waves; Worst
Countries are India, Ukraine, UAE, Moldova, Croatia, Albania, Greece, Poland,
Switzerland, Italy and France; North Korea in Famine; 9 US States in Second
Wave; Worst US States are Illinois, South Dakota, North Dakota, Michigan, Iowa,
Wyoming, Kansas, Missouri, North Carolina, Delaware, Hawaii, Kentucky and
California; US Congress is on Vacation Remaining Deadlocked on Stimulus Bill;
RNC Convention Begins; Coronavirus Article 17 published on 8/23/20.
The eighteenth article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 9/2/20; US Unable to
‘Flatten the Curve’; Countries with Worst New Cases are India, UAE, Czechia,
Turkey, Ireland, Finland, Spain, Costa Rica, Canada, Italy, Nepal, Peru,
Honduras, Indonesia, Ukraine, France and Greece; Europe Deals with Second Wave;
Worst US States are West Virginia, Mississippi, Kansas, South Dakota, North
Dakota, South Carolina, Illinois, Iowa, Alabama, Rhode Island, Delaware, Hawaii,
Kentucky, Virginia, Alaska, Oregon, Georgia and Arizona; US Congress Continues
Fiscal Stimulus Talks; Polls Tighten in US Presidential Race; Coronavirus Article 18 published on 9/2/20.
The nineteenth article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 9/12/20; United States
Finally Flattening the Active Cases Bell Curve Chart; President Trump Admits He
Downplayed Virus; US Schools and Colleges Reopen; 2% of Americans Have Been or
Are Infected with Coronavirus; Second Wave Consumes Europe; 31 Nations Report
Increases in New Cases This Month; 26 Countries Report Increases in New Cases
in Last Two Days; New Cases Spike in 15 US States in Last 9 Days; 28 US States
Cannot Yet Flatten the Curve; Congress Unable to Agree on Stimulus Bill;
COVID-19 Has Killed Over 200,000 Americans; Coronavirus Article 19 published on
9/12/20.
The twentieth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 9/24/20; Over 200,000 Americans Dead; US
is Flattening the Active Cases Bell Curve Chart but 35 States Are Struggling;
10 US States Report Highest New Coronavirus Cases Ever including Wyoming,
Kansas, North Dakota, South Dakota, Missouri, Minnesota, Utah, West Virginia,
Arkansas and Illinois; Europe is in COVID-19 Hell but Only Imposing
Lockdown-Lite Restrictions; Israel Imposes Strict Lockdown; 19 Countries Report
Highest New COVID-19 Cases Ever Including Spain, Netherlands, UK, Poland,
Romania, Hungary, Greece, Czechia, Moldova, Ukraine, UAE, Iran, Iraq, Bahrain,
Israel, Nepal, Morocco, Indonesia and Argentina; President Trump Asks UN
Members to Hold China Accountable for “The China Virus”; Congress Unable to
Agree on Fiscal Stimulus Bill; US Stock Market Slips into a -10% Correction; WORDWIDE
CORONAVIRUS DEATHS EXCEED 1 MILION PEOPLE; PRESIDENT TRUMP AND FIRST LADY
MELANIA TEST POSITIVE FOR COVID-19; Coronavirus Article 20 published on
9/24/20.
The Worldometer web site is useful in tracking coronavirus (COVID-19)
around the world and its link is provided. Many charts in the coronavirus
series of articles are provided courtesy of Worldometer and annotated by
Keystone. The Worldometer data is about 3 to 5 days ahead of the Johns-Hopkins
data, sometimes more. This is why some of the forecasts in the coronavirus series
of articles appear prescient. You will generally know of a trend or direction change
of the coronavirus pandemic here first followed by the mainstream media playing
catch-up a few days later. The current jump in new cases in the US was
identified and highlighted in the prior Article 21 but only now appears on the
cable and broadcast news coverage.
The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model (TKSCIRM)
forecasts the peak date in active coronavirus cases for any country or region.
The peak and flattening of the active cases chart represent the maximum strain
on medical personnel and facilities. The Keystone Model monitors the
Worldometer new cases data for a country or region and identifies the date of the
peak in new cases (New Case Peak Date). Once this occurs, the active case bell
curve will peak in 1 to 4 weeks depending on how the virus situation is
handled.
If the country, region or state is well-prepared, the active
cases will peak 11 days, on average, after the new cases peak (think South
Korea, Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, etc..). The 11 days also holds for
communist and dictatorship-style governments, such as red China, since the
population has to do what it is told or they receive a bullet in their heads. Even
the second wave outbreaks in Australia, Hong Kong and Japan are brought under
control in the same time period as the initial wave.
If the country is not well-prepared, or non-communist, like
the US, the active cases will peak 28 days after the peak in new cases. Same
for any US state. Add 28 days to the New Cases Peak Date to arrive at the
Projected Active Cases Peak Date (when the pandemic will begin to subside and
hopefully decrease). Western nations live more feely so it is more difficult to
control a pandemic.
The top of the bell curve pattern on the active cases chart is
important since it represents the maximum strain on medical facilities and
healthcare personnel. Hospitalization data may be retreating but the active
cases curve is far more important. People remain under doctor’s care with
fatigue and other symptoms after they recover from the worst of the virus which
creates an ongoing demand on the healthcare system. Other semi-recovered patients are sent home
or to other medical facilities or nursing homes and not counted in the
hospitalization data but they remain a strain on the medical system. The
coronavirus pandemic is only under control when the active cases curve rolls
over lower forming the bell shape.
Months after the Memorial Day debacle, the US active cases
curve finally flattens again for six weeks during September into early October.
America is once again on the verge of defeating the virus but the Labor Day
parties and reopening of businesses and schools brings on more COVID-19 Hell.
The active cases curve begins moving higher once again instead of dropping and
creating the bell shape. The discussion about ‘flattening the curve’ pertains only
to the active cases bell curve chart shown above and not to the new cases bar
chart. The media and citizens are confused with the charts and data since
medical officials and politicians do not properly explain or understand these
concepts themselves. Perhaps they want to keep the public in the dark.
The Keystone Model uses the new case peak date for
forecasting the peak in the active cases bell curve. Any subsequent higher new
case numbers will create a new case peak date. Also, if the number of new cases
is within 8% of the prior peak, that new date becomes the new case peak date
where 28 days is added (or 11 days for nations that handle the virus better) to
project when the peak in the active cases chart will occur. The behavior of
higher high new case numbers, and a 7-day moving average sloping higher, signals
that the virus is getting worse in that region. Obviously, all nations want
their new cases to trend lower and drop to zero.
The peak new case date for the US is 7/24/20. As explained
above, this third wave of the virus in America, or third impulse of the
original wave if you prefer, produces a new case peak date at 10/9/20 and then
today, 10/14/20. Adding 28 days is a target date of 11/11/20 for the US to
flatten the active cases curve and hopefully begin to roll it over lower. The
virus is going to be around a while. Learn to live with it.
The nations that have weathered the latest virus storm with
their active cases charts rolling over to form the bell shape are India
(problematic data), Brazil, Colombia, Peru, South Africa, Mexico, Chile, Bangladesh,
Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Bolivia, Qatar, Dominican Republic, Panama, Kazakhstan,
Philippines (data is messy), Egypt, Kuwait (may be worsening), Guatemala, China
(the bioterrorists that unleashed the Wuhan virus experiment), Japan,
Australia, South Korea, Honduras (may be worsening), Venezuela, Nigeria,
Singapore, El Salvador, Bahrain, Costa Rica (problematic data), Ecuador
(problematic data), Israel, Iraq and Uzbekistan (problematic data). Kuwait
(Middle East) and Honduras (Central America) are probably starting to slip down
the coronavirus rabbit hole.
Israel’s new cases peaked on 9/23/20 and the active cases
bell curve peaked and rolled over on 10/1/20 only eight days later. Israel
imposed a strict lockdown when the new cases began spiking higher and the
outbreak is snuffed-out quickly. The socialist, communist and authoritarian
nations can stop the pandemic easier since the citizenry must obey government
without rebuttal (11-day average between the new cases peak and when the active
cases peak) while the Western nations have a more difficult row to hoe since
folks like to question authority and want to continue socializing and partying
(28-day average between the new cases peak and when the active cases peak).
A small outbreak occurs in the Qingdao region of China and
is quickly nipped in the bud in this closed communist society. China employs a
strategy of conducting 9.5 million virus tests in five days. This is day four
and they are at 7.5 million tests completed. China, who unleashed the Wuhan
virus on the world, uses the ‘pool testing’ methodology as explained several
articles ago. People are tested in groups with cheap tests. If one positive
shows in that group, all those people are then brought in for a better virus
test so they can identify the sick patient and begin tracing. The US could have
employed this methodology the last few months but there is no leadership. Each
state, and also cities and local municipalities, are on their own, scrambling
each day, each reinventing the wheel umpteen times. The United States has a lot
to learn about pandemic preparation and management (Trump canned these
departments and experts when he came into office so he could brag about saving
money) but first the weathered nation must get beyond the covid nightmare.
Sadly, the United States appears on the list below of
troubled countries again after failing to flatten the active cases bell curve
chart after six weeks of hoping and praying. America is averaging over 50K new
cases per day for the first time in a couple months.
The 38 worst global hotspots that have not yet flattened the
curve are highlighted in the list below with their projected peaks in active
cases dates (maximum stress on healthcare workers and medical equipment and systems)
provided. China’s deadly coronavirus stink lingers in the world’s atmosphere like
the stench of garbage in the hot summer sun.
Spain (Second Wave) (limited data
hampers analysis)
9/18/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
10/16/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
10/4/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
10/15/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days)
Ethiopia (Fourth
Wave)
10/7/20 New Case Peak Date (new cases peak on
10/4 and 10/7/20 for this fourth wave)
10/18/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
(based on 11 days)
10/8/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases
ever 9/21, 10/2 and 10/8/20)
10/19/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
(based on 11 days; data is problematic)
10/8/20 New Case Peak Date (highest new cases
ever 9/30, 10/1 and 10/2/20)
10/19/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date
(based on 11 days)
10/8/20
New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
11/5/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
10/8/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases since June)
11/5/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
10/8/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever on 10/7 and 10/8/20)
11/5/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
10/9/20 New Case Peak Date (new
cases highest since May)
10/20/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days; curve trying to flatten)
10/9/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases since 8/14/20)
11/6/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
10/10/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 3/26 and 10/10/20)
10/20/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days)
10/10/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 4/10, 4/15 and 10/10/20)
10/21/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days; chart is moving higher)
10/10/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
11/7/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days; data is problematic)
10/10/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 10/9 and 10/10/20)
11/7/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
10/10/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
11/7/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
10/10/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever on 4/10 and 10/10)
11/7/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
10/10/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
11/7/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
10/10/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
11/7/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days; data is problematic)
10/11/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 10/8 and 10/11/20)
10/22/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days)
10/11/20
New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
11/8/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
10/11/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever on 4/10 and 10/11/20)
11/8/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
10/11/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases on 8/13, 8/19, 8/29 and 10/13/20)
11/8/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
10/13/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever on 10/10 and 10/13/20)
10/24/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days)
10/13/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever on 10/9/20 and 10/13/20)
10/26/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days)
10/14/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases since April)
10/25/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days)
10/13/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
10/24/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days)
10/13/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 10/9, 10/10 and 10/13/20)
10/24/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days)
10/13/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
10/24/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days)
10/13/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever on 10/6, 10/8, 10/12 and 10/13/20)
10/24/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days)
10/13/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever on 10/9 and 10/13/20
10/24/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days)
10/13/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 10/8, 10/10 and 10/13/20)
10/24/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days)
10/13/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever; exploding higher)
11/10/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
10/13/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever on 10/5 and 10/13/20)
11/10/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
10/13/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
11/10/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
10/13/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever on 6/7, 6/25, 6/26 and 10/13/20)
11/10/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
10/13/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever on 3/20, 3/21, 3/26, 3/27, 3/28 and 10/13/20)
11/10/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
10/13/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever; huge spike higher)
11/10/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
10/13/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 10/8/20 and 10/13/20)
11/10/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
North Korea (no virus data is available; the hermit kingdom is in famine; Kim Jong-un is alive and recovered from a serious multi-week illness probably coronavirus)
The new cases and active cases charts continue moving higher for the 38 countries listed above. The active cases charts will not yet roll over to form the bell shape for these nations so the strain on medical workers and equipment continues (which includes the care after hospitalizations).
Europe is in major trouble. The countries sinking into the coronavirus quagmire are UK, Italy, Netherlands, Finland, Czechia, Germany, Switzerland, Poland, Belarus, Albania, Belgium, Croatia, Romania, Hungary, Portugal, France, Ireland, Austria, Spain, Sweden, Greece and Moldova. Another hot spot is the Georgia, Armenia, Iran, Iraq and Turkey confluence in the western Asia and northern Middle East. Coronavirus is spreading rapidly in that region. Nearly 300 Russians just died from covid over the last 24 hours.
Combining the trouble in Europe, western Asia and the Middle East, and Morocco in northern Africa, a large swath of misery appears on the world map shown above. The map is provided by the excellent site MapQuest that was the original mapmaker on the internet. The chart is annotated by Keystone. The 30 countries shown on the map (red circles) are in the list above and experiencing all-time record highs in new cases (many are reporting the most new cases since the pandemic began in early 2020). It would be wise to put off travel plans anywhere within that area. Europe is unraveling. The world lacks leadership. The loss of business and destruction to the economies within that swatch of misery across the pond can send the entire world into a global recession and depression. China’s largest trading partner is Europe.
For America, the troubled US states are highlighted below with their projections on when the active cases curve will peak-out (max strain on healthcare system) as per the Keystone Model. The top 14 states for total virus cases, from highest to lowest, are California (worst), Texas, Florida, New York, Georgia, Illinois, North Carolina, Arizona, Tennessee, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Louisiana, Alabama and Virginia. North Carolina has moved up the list for the last couple weeks now leapfrogging Arizona. Tennessee leapfrogs New Jersey. Pennsylvania and Ohio, two election battleground states, move up the list with their total case counts growing ever higher.
Dr Fauci says the trend line is going the wrong way as the United States heads into winter. Fauci had hoped that the infections would subside and the country would be at a lower base as the fall season begins but no such luck. Another metric Fauci and other doctors use is the test positivity rate. The United States is sadly above 5% in positive virus tests. This number is getting too high to carry out effective tracking and tracing. The positivity rate needs to be under 5% to carry out an effective tracking program and preferably sub 3%. Fauci opines that he would like to see the virus test positivity rate below 1% as we go into the winter flu season. Therefore, Fauci appears downtrodden at what he expects going forward. The regular flu season is beginning along side the ongoing, and escalating, covid pandemic.
The 6 US states that have successfully created the bell shape on the active cases chart are Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Nevada (but it appears poised to worsen), Hawaii and Vermont (but poised to worsen); also the District of Columbia (DC). This list was 15 states 20 days ago, 11 states 10 days ago, and now only 6 states with a couple of them ready to again join the sad list below. The coronavirus situation is obviously worsening as delusional King Donnie proclaims each day that the US is “turning the corner.” Trump is the modern-day Nero fiddling while Rome is burning. This behavior is hurting Trump in the election polls. He is out of touch. As the virus escalation becomes more obvious to the average Joe on the street in the days ahead, Trump’s proclamation that the virus is behind us will appear delusional.
Below is a listing of the 44 states (this list was 35 states 20 days ago, 39 states 10 days ago and now 44 states so the virus is obviously worsening) having the most trouble in dealing with the covid pandemic. America is likely descending into a panic again like the springtime with the store shelves going bare and people hunkering-down. This behavior will devastate the US economy especially with the hope for a fiscal stimulus bill looking dim.
The worst states are at the bottom of the list since their new cases are escalating the most in recent days but all the states listed below are in trouble. Europe is descending into COVID-19 Hell and the United States is following their lead.
Maryland (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 7/25/20 (new
cases now moving up towards July and August numbers)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/21/20 (chart continues higher; data is problematic)
New Case Peak Date 8/11/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
9/8/20 (chart continues higher; data is problematic)
New Case Peak Date 8/14/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
9/11/20 (chart continues higher; data is problematic)
Illinois (Second Wave) (data is a mess and problematic)
New Case Peak Date 9/4/20 (highest
cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
10/2/20 (chart continues higher)
New Case Peak Date 9/17/20
(highest new cases since late July early August)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
10/15/20 (data is problematic)
New Case Peak Date 9/25/20
(highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
10/23/20
New Case Peak Date 9/30/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
10/28/20 (data is messy)
New Case Peak Date 10/2/20
(highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
10/30/20
New Case Peak Date 10/3/20
(highest new cases since early Sept and July)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
10/31/20 (data is problematic)
New Case Peak Date 10/6/20
(highest new cases ever 10/3/20 and 10/6/20)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/3/20
New Case Peak Date 10/8/20
(highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/5/20
New Case Peak Date 10/8/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/5/20
New Case Peak Date 10/8/20
(highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/5/20
New Case Peak Date 10/8/20
(highest new cases ever are 7/26, 9/25 and 10/8/20)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/5/20
New Case Peak Date 10/8/20
(highest new cases since May)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/5/20 (active cases chart begins rising)
New Case Peak Date 10/8/20
(highest new cases since 5/29/20)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/5/20 (active cases chart begins moving higher)
New Case Peak Date 10/9/20
(highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/6/20
New Case Peak Date 10/9/20
(highest new cases since May)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/6/20
New Case Peak Date 10/9/20
(highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/6/20
New Case Peak Date 10/9/20
(highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/6/20
New Case Peak Date 10/10/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/7/20
New Case Peak Date 10/10/20
(highest new cases on 10/8 and 10/10/20 since July)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/7/20
(data is problematic)
New Case Peak Date 10/10/20
(highest new cases on 10/6 and 10/8/20 since August)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/7/20 (data is problematic)
New Case Peak Date 10/10/20
(highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 11/7/20
New Case Peak Date 10/10/20
(highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/7/20
New Case Peak Date 10/10/20
(highest new cases ever 10/7, 10/9 and 10/10/20)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/7/20
New Case Peak Date 10/11/20
(highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/8/20
New Case Peak Date 10/12/20
(highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/9/20 (data is messy and problematic)
New Case Peak Date 10/12/20
(highest new cases ever are 4/20, 4/22 and 10/12/20)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/9/20 (active cases chart is rising)
New Case Peak Date 10/12/20
(highest new cases since July)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/9/20 (active cases chart moving higher)
New
Case Peak Date 10/12/20 (highest new cases ever are 4/3/20 and 10/12/20)
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 11/9/20
New Case Peak Date 10/13/20
(highest new cases since 8/3/20)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/10/20
New Case Peak Date 10/13/20
(October is highest new cases since May)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/10/20 (active cases chart is rising)
New Case Peak Date 10/13/20
(highest new cases since 9/29/20 and back in August)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/10/20 (active cases chart begins moving higher)
New Case Peak Date 10/13/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/10/20
New Case Peak Date 10/13/20
(highest new cases since April)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/10/20
New Case Peak Date 10/13/20
(highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/10/20
New Case Peak Date 10/14/20 (October
is highest new cases since 7/15, 7/16 and 8/6/20)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/11/20
New Case Peak Date 10/14/20
(highest new cases ever are on 8/28/20 and 10/14/20)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/11/20 (data is problematic)
New Case Peak Date 10/14/20
(highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/11/20
New Case Peak Date 10/14/20
(highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/11/20
New Case Peak Date 10/14/20
(highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/11/20 (active cases chart rising sharply)
New Case Peak Date 10/14/20 (highest
new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/11/20
New Case Peak Date 10/14/20
(highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
11/11/20
44 out of 50 states are seeing a record high in new cases or numbers going back to the springtime highs. The pandemic is not going away anytime soon despite what President Trump is hoping. Hope is not a strategy. The pandemic needs leadership and this is missing on the country and world stage. Politicians are weak-kneed these days.
The worst 18 states are the Dakota’s, Ohio, New Mexico, Kentucky, Iowa, Idaho, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Texas, Massachusetts, Washington, Michigan, Tennessee, Kansas, Connecticut and Alaska, but the other 26 states making up the 44 total are in equally bad shape.
Ohioans must not have taken the virus serious enough since the virus cases are rapidly increasing. The land of lakes (Minnesota) is drowning in covid with new cases at a record high. Wisconsin is erecting field hospitals to handle the overflow of patients and a half-dozen other states are at capacity. Ohio, Minnesota and Wisconsin are battleground states in the presidential election. Healthcare workers are also under serious stress in Kentucky and Utah. Indiana’s health commissioner Dr Kristina Box contracts covid.
Americans appear somewhat oblivious as to how fast and bad the virus is spreading and worsening. They will understand over the next couple weeks. The worsening of the pandemic will have an impact on Election Day on 11/3/20 and is a likely negative for President Trump.
For any state that has not yet reached its peak in the active cases curve, simply identify what day the new cases peak and add 28 days to that date to project when the top of the bell curve will occur on the active cases chart as per the Keystone Model. If subsequent new case numbers exceed the new case peak date’s number, or are within 8% of the new case peak date, that new date becomes the new case peak date and 28 days is added to project the active cases peak load. A new wave is identified by a peak in new cases. The states at the bottom of the list will be the last to see relief for their healthcare workers and medical equipment. Doctors, nurses, medics, emergency personnel and medical support staffs will be working through the upcoming holidays. Virtually hug a caregiver; they may be the ones caring for you a few weeks from now.
The news flow concerning the virus is non-stop since the entire world is engulfed and becoming swallowed-up by the pandemic. WHO says that young folks and people in good health may not receive a coronavirus vaccine until 2022. Doctors, nurses, medics and other healthcare professionals most exposed to covid should be vaccinated first. Everyone will be agreeable to that but the elite class will always greedily buy their way to vaccines ahead of the huddled masses, especially black and brown folks more susceptible to the perils of covid; this is the crony capitalism system.
President Trump announces at a campaign rally that his son, Barron, had the virus. Trump says Barron was asymptomatic and recovered quickly and in true Donnie fashion paints the picture that the virus is harmless to young people. Americans were told over the last 1-1/2 weeks that First Lady Melania was asymptomatic but now the description of her illness changes. She says symptoms are moderate including fatigue, tiredness, headaches, a high temperature, all the same symptoms as a regular patient. Obviously, she was sicker than the country was told but what else is new? Trump tells you what he thinks you want to hear. Everyone is glad that the First Lady and Barron are feeling better.
Trump coughs as he talks and you can hear phlegm in his throat so he may want to take it easy. The steroids may have made him feel like Superman, as well as feeding his aggressive personality, but perhaps the vigor the pills provided is short-lived? Trump likely had/has pneumonia and It is nothing to fool around with; a recurrence of pneumonia is almost always worse than the initial onset. He should be sitting on the sofa in the Oval Office sipping tea with honey. Hopefully, that cough and phlegm disappears from his throat quickly.
The fiscal stimulus talks are breaking down. It is a circle-jerk of political baby games. The Senate, led by republican McConnell, only wants a small bill since many republicans are against any stimulus at all. The House, led by democrat Pelosi, wants a $2.2 trillion bill that covers testing and money to help states continue functioning. Trump is all over the map one day saying there will be no deal but 10 minutes later trying to cut mini-deals and now proclaiming that he wants a bill bigger than everyone else. Trump’s flip-flop behavior may have been due to the prescription drugs flowing through his body.
Trump wants reelected that is what he wants. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin represents the Trump thinking and has offered $1.8 trillion in stimulus but the terms on spending the money are far apart. Trump does not want money going to states that he says mismanaged their finances over the years. Even if Mnuchin (Trump) and Pelosi agree on the dollar amount and terms, McConnell will not be able to push a big spending bill through the Senate.
Pelosi and Mnuchin vow to keep talking but Mnuchin appears on television and comments that “getting something done before the election is difficult.” Stocks immediately lose the day’s gains and trade negatively the major indexes down -0.3%. At noon time, the stock indexes are down -0.8%. The SPX, S&P 500, the US stock market, finishes the day down -0.666% at 3489. Markets are becoming shaky as the pandemic worsens in Europe and the US and hopes for a stimulus bill disappear like sand falling through the fingers of an open palm.
The political and corporate jack-asses controlling the nation return home each evening living the life of nobility. They dine on the tastiest cuts of meat and sleep on the finest quality satin sheets as the huddled masses worry about contracting covid, paying the rent and of course, eating. America is in a New Gilded Age a la the 1920’s. The United States is the land of the have’s and have not’s. The gap between rich and poor is the widest in over 50 years. The wealthy elite class destroyed the middle class over the last five decades solely for their own monetary gain. The greedy bastards. Payback will be a bitch.
Further proof of the sick greed in America is evidenced by information coming to light that when Trump was downplaying the virus in February, wealthy donors were being told the more serious story. The wealthy elite class then shorted the stock market and once the virus news deteriorated, as Trump and his cronies knew it would but did not tell common Americans, they made millions of dollars. Isn't America great? There are over 1,000 insider trades occurring per day on corrupt Wall Street. You don't actually think that the Wall Street money managers are strutting around in $4,000 custom-tailored Armani suits because they are good stock-picker's, do you? Everyone should be happy the crony capitalism system is crumbling. The sooner the country moves on the better.
The United States will enter a period like the 1960’s only it will not be solely about race and civil rights as much as income inequality; rich versus poor. Coronavirus makes the rich richer and poor even poorer. Dark times are on the horizon. If you are wealthy, you should be known for your generosity in the community and helping people, otherwise, you will have a big red bullseye on your back when the huddled masses begin searching for you with their pitchforks and torches.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 10/15/20, at 8:00 AM EST: Senate leader McConnell wants to go forward with a vote for a skinned-down stimulus bill, same-o stuff, but President Trump tweets; “STIMULUS! Go big or go home!!!” slapping his own Republican Tribe members with three exclamation points. The tweet emboldens Pelosi. Recent studies indicate that humans with blood Type O can fight the virus better than other blood types. Doctors warn that the virus is spreading now from small gatherings so the Halloween and Thanksgiving holidays will be muted. Families will rethink their plans. The virus pandemic drama takes a turn for the worse overnight. Europe, and the world, is realizing how serious the outbreak is and some panic is beginning to set in. Asian and European stock markets sell off overnight and the US futures markets are pointing at losses of over -1%. The lack of a stimulus bill and worsening of the pandemic is creating a dark cloud over Thursday. France announces curfews in major cities including Paris. Hospitals are filling up fast. Germany’s Merkel imposes limits on specific regions and says more guidelines will follow. The UK imposes stricter measures to try and stop the pandemic. The Netherlands closes the bars for four weeks. What about the pot (marijuana) bars? Northern Ireland closes schools for two weeks and bars and restaurants for the next four weeks. The US and world sinks into the covid swamp as President Trump proclaims that the worst is over. The DAX (German) stock index is down -3%. FTSE (UK) -2%. CAC (France) -2%. MIB (Italy) -2%.
Note Added Thursday Morning,
10/15/20, at 10:45 AM EST: The S&P 500 index is down 38 points, -1.1%, to
3450. The Dow Jones Industrials Index, watched by the public but only
represents 30 blue-chip stocks, sinks 264 points, -0.9%, to 28250. The
tech-heavy Nasdaq Index collapses -1.6%. DAX -3%. FTSE -2%. CAC -3%. MIB -3%. Gold
1900. Kamala Harris’s aid and one other person test positive for coronavirus.
Harris was tested yesterday and was negative but she is cancelling appearances
until Monday. A Biden staffer also tests positive for coronavirus but Biden continues testing negative. Mnuchin says he and Trump are agreeable to raising their offer of
$1.8 trillion in stimulus. Donnie wants a stimulus bill bad to help him in the
polls. He does not care how much it is; to Hell with fiscal conservatism.
During these waning years of crony capitalism, it is comical to see the humans
sell their souls each day.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 10/15/20, at 4:00 PM EST: The republicans drop an October surprise on the democrats accusing Joe Biden and son Hunter Biden with corrupt dealings in Ukraine and China. Facebook and Twitter block the information. Lawmakers on Capitol Hill summon the CEO's of these companies to Congress next week to explain why the story is stifled. The politics will get dirtier and dirtier ahead of the election. Biden and Trump are both holding town hall style events this evening. It was supposed to be the second debate but Trump backed out not wanting to do a virtual debate. The president is in South Carolina today and says he is being set up in tonight's town hall appearance. Donnie the showman knows how to draw in viewers. Trump will brag that his town hall was watched by more viewers than Biden's town hall which likely will be the case since people know that Trump will say outrageous things. Biden continues leading Trump in the polls and is receiving far more campaign donations coming down the stretch. Women voters are leaning towards Biden and the women elect the president (about 55% of the voters are female and 45% male). Trump touts a study on covid patients that he interprets as 85% of the people that wear masks contract coronavirus. Trump uses the study to reinforce his behavior of not wearing a mask. The study actually questioned patients already ill with covid and asked them if they had wore a mask and 85% said yes. Of course they will say yes and especially to a doctor or healthcare practitioner; the patient does not want anyone to think less of them. And besides, you can wear a mask all the time but for a few minutes let your guard down and that is when you may become infected. Trump proclaims that the United States is "doing fine" in its fight against coronavirus. 970 Americans died of covid yesterday. 222,000 are dead overall from covid. If that is doing fine, the average American scratches his bald head and wonders what doing bad would look like? Former Governor Christie, that was in the hospital with covid after the Rose Garden superspreader event including a week in the ICU, performs a mea culpa saying he was wrong about not wearing masks and now encourages everyone to follow the guidelines from the doctors and scientists. He changes his tune. Sounds like Christie may have felt the hand of Christ as he battled the coronavirus demon with his life on the line. Like the old saying goes, there are no atheist's in fox holes. When the bullets are whizzing over your head, and shells are kicking up dirt and shrapnel that is spraying the foxhole, and the sound is deafening piercing your eardrums, and you can feel that you just sh*t your pants, you will be down on your knees in that foxhole praying to the All Mighty like you never prayed before.
Note Added Friday Morning, 10/16/20: Trump says he will muscle McConnell and the republicans if Mnuchin and Pelosi can agree on a stimulus deal. This is political theater and the common American in the audience is told to eat cake. Biden and Trump conduct competing town halls last evening with Sleepy Joe's event more laid back with ABC News offering up soft balls the septuagenarian easily hit out of the park. King Trump's event on NBC, CNBC and MSNBC was more boisterous and confrontational with an aggressive president debating an aggressive host Savannah Guthrie. Trump does not dispute that his businesses owe $400 million in debt that is coming due soon but he brags that his real estate is worth far more. That may be true but he is misleading the public. Most of the properties with the gaudy Trump signs in gold are owned by others that simply pay a fee to Donnie for using the Trump brand name. People assume that his name on the building means he owns it; this is not true and usually not the case. Donnie is very animated these days so it would be surprising if he was actually not taking any prescription drugs as he claims. The Biden town hall is watched by 14 million folks while the Trump town hall, playing on three networks as opposed to one, is watched by 13 million. Perhaps people, especially women voters, are seeking what they perceive as calm instead of four more years of the daily bombastic drama and insult parade. Both candidates hit the campaign trail today focusing on the battleground states such as Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, North Carolina, Arizona and others. Trump continues to say America is 'rounding the corner' with the pandemic, which is delusional; he needs to take the time to look at the data. Biden gets a one-liner in saying that Trump already rounded the corner and 'he went 'round the bend' (Biden rolls his eyes and moves his fist and thumb, in a hitchhike pose, back and forth insinuating that the president has lost it mentally). Pfizer says its vaccine will be ready for approval before Thanksgiving (third week of November). Europe is sinking deep into the covid quagmire with new cases ramping higher each day. Brit's have lost confidence in PM Johnson. Nations are in chaos and floundering, changing guidelines daily, with populations confused and sick of the restrictions just as the pandemic is worsening. A study is released that says Remdesivir is not as helpful in fighting covid as thought and does not significantly reduce the mortality rate. The president took this drug made by Gilead. GILD stock drops -2% and is down -3% this week. Gilead questions the findings since it is an outlier as compared to other studies. Georgia, USA, hospitals are running at near 90% capacity. Wisconsin continues down the coronavirus rabbit hole with conditions deteriorating daily but here comes Donnie. Trump plans a campaign rally in Wisconsin this weekend, where lots of folks will not wear masks, in the middle of a pandemic spinning out of control. The test positivity rate in Wisconsin is a mind-blowing 23%!!! Dear Lord. 1 out of every 4 people tested in Wisconsin have the virus! The US Surgeon General warns that Wisconsin is "going in the wrong direction." Thanks for the input, Captain Obvious. In the southwestern US, Governor Lujan Grisham decrees, "This is the most severe emergency New Mexico has ever faced." Meanwhile, as he plans the next campaign rally in the middle of an escalating pandemic, King Donnie says America is rounding the corner. Curious minds wonder what color is the sky in Donnie's world? The pandemic is Trump's Waterloo.
Note Added Sunday, 10/18/20: Trump carries out campaign rallies in Michigan and Wisconsin yesterday and Nevada today as coronavirus cases increase. As usual, many folks at the Trump events are not wearing masks and the entire crowd is not social distancing. It is bazaar. The events are known to create virus infections such as the Minnesota rally, the Tulsa rally that killed Herman Cain and the Rose Garden superspreader event that had Chris Christie fighting for his life. The president is returning to the 2016 playbook and believes that if he keeps holding rallies in the battleground states into the election he will win. At the same time, Trump, and his surrogates keep proclaiming that the worst of the coronavirus pandemic is behind us. This is not a good strategy for the president since, as evidenced by the data and charts above, the pandemic will likely worsen into election day. In two weeks, Trump may sound like a raving lunatic, like Nero fiddling as Rome is burning, or Baghdad Bob, saying all is fine while the pandemic spins out of control. The discussions from springtime concerning PPE, ventilators, hospitals capacities, testing kits, will resurface as the pandemic escalates. The US stiffed a couple companies on ventilators, such as Philips, cancelling the orders. The US has done this in the past. That is why it was difficult to ramp up PPE (personal protective equipment; gowns, gloves, shields, etc..) production in March and April. During a virus outbreak years ago, an American company cranked out the PPE at the government's request and then the US stiffed that company leaving them with having to unload mountains of PPE below cost. Needless to say, that company did not ramp up production in the spring. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me. The world drowns in a sea of untrustworthiness. The fiscal stimulus talks are a mess. Senate Leader McConnell plans a vote for the smaller $500 billion package on Wednesday. House Leader Pelosi is talking to Mnuchin and says an agreement must be reached in 48 hours to get a stimulus bill before the election. Trump says he wants a large stimulus. Pelosi says the republicans remove one-half the funding for coronavirus testing, tracking and tracing. There are too many cooks stirring the fiscal stimulus pot; McConnell, Pelosi, Mnuchin who is supposed to be representing Trump, but Trump changes his mind on a whim without even telling Mnuchin. That is four entities trying to reach an agreement. Generally, markets are hopeful that a stimulus bill will occur. US and European futures markets point to higher stock prices on Monday.
Note Added Monday, 10/19/20: President Trump is in Arizona for two rallies. The Tucson mayor is asking the president to follow mask-wearing guidelines but he does not care. The president's task force doctor, Scott Atlas, tweets a message that begins with; "Masks work? No." Twitter removes the message calling it misinformation. Dr Fauci was on the 60 Minutes news television program last evening discussing the pandemic and the Rose garden superspreader event. Trump is not happy today calling Fauci an "Idiot" and a "disaster." Trump says, "People are tired of covid....tired of hearing Fauci." Even Trump enthusiasts wonder why the president is attacking Fauci; what purpose does it serve? Trump is likely blaming Fauci for the pandemic response to divert the attention from himself. Fauci has a higher popularity rating than Trump. The president says the US is rounding the corner with the virus even without the vaccines. This is stupid talk. Trump needs to look at the data. Trump calls the liberal-leaning cable news network CNN "dumb bastards." Biden and Trump face off in the final debate on Thursday night and the moderator will be equipped with a mute button due to the argumentative and chaotic first debate. The second debate was cancelled after Trump refused to participate in a virtual debate (which was structured that way due to his coronavirus illness). Director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota Michal Osterholm warns, "The next six to 12 weeks are going to be the darkest of the entire pandemic." China is building up military power at the coastal areas near Taiwan and may be planning an invasion and foray into the island. China is testing the United States to see if it will defend Taiwan. America must defend Taiwan against the filthy communists. The world is in serious trouble not realizing the extreme danger China, the CCP (Chinese Communist Party), poses on the planet; the CCP has already enslaved the Chinese people for 70 years. The fiscal stimulus drama continues in Washington, DC. Mnuchin and Pelosi keep talking but it does not appear a deal may be reached before the election. The S&P 500 drops 57 points, -1.6%, to 3427. The Dow Jones Industrials drop 411 points, -1.4%, to 28195. The Nasdaq Index dumps -1.7%. Gold 1905.
Note Added Thursday, 10/22/20: A volunteer in the AstraZeneca and Oxford University COVID-19 vaccine study in Brazil kills over dead. Spokesmen say they do not want to release details but say the patient had taken the placebo. A different study had refused to say whether it was the placebo or not. AZN stock is down -2% this week. AstraZeneca and the Johnson & Johnson trials may restart in the days ahead. The CDC revises the already confusing guidelines concerning coronavirus. 'Cumulative exposure' is added to the coronavirus definitions where a person may become infected after several smaller interactions with infected people add up over time. The fiscal stimulus game continues. Pelosi says, "We're almost there." The stock market rallies off its intraday lows. President Trump needs to bolster the female vote so it would be helpful if First Lady Melania was on the campaign trail but she and son Barron are nursing lingering coughs from the coronavirus. The last presidential debate is this evening and Trump needs to make up ground. People will be watching to see if the First Lady shows up. The mud is flying. Joe Biden and son Hunter may be involved in a Ukraine scandal while Donnie is exposed as having a Chinese bank account. Former President Obama spoke last evening stumping for Biden taking Trump to task. Boom. Spain hits 1 million virus cases. Bang. Argentina hits 1 million cases. France is a hair away and proclaims that the second virus wave is hitting Europe. The FDA approves Gilead's Remdesivir for use in treating covid (it was approved for emergency use when Trump received it as part of his treatment). GILD stock pops +8%. Trump tests negative for covid as he flies to Nashville for the debate this evening. Italy and Germany are reporting record new coronavirus cases. Curfews are being imposed across Europe that is descending into COVID-19 Hell. The US presidential debate occurs and is much calmer than the first debate. Biden paints a picture of a "dark winter" ahead and America must focus on handling the virus. Trump claims he is immune to covid and continues to paint a rosy picture about the pandemic saying the virus is going away and the treatments and therapies are coming. Generally, Biden is perceived as a better choice for handling the pandemic while Trump is perceived as a better choice for handling the economy. The pandemic is worsening in the States and may become a pivotal factor over the next 11 days. If the coronavirus keeps spreading, there is no economy. First Lady Melania joined Trump on the trip to the Nashville, Tennessee, debate so it is great that she must be feeling better. The key day for new case data is Friday. Perhaps more organizations simply tally their numbers that way. Tomorrow's US new cases number will dictate whether the virus is truly worsening and America will be in big trouble for the days and weeks ahead, or, if the cases subside, signal that the virus will linger and the current status quo continues.
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