By K E Stone (Keystone)
The coronavirus pandemic saga continues with good news and
bad news. The good news is that the US active cases chart (shown above)
continues to flatten and potentially roll over lower, forming a bell shape,
verifying that the worst would be over for COVID-19. However, the jury remains
out as to whether the curve will roll over as explained in more detail below.
New cases are rising substantially in the United States which may cause the
active cases curve to start trending higher again.
The bad news is President Trump and the First Lady contracting
coronavirus. Perhaps it is karma that the man who plays down the pandemic, by
his own admission, and refuses to wear a mask or follow social distancing rules
that his own administration promotes, becomes sick with covid. Everyone wishes
the president and First Lady Melania a speedy recovery.
Others that attended the Supreme Court nomination party for
Judge Amy Coney Barrett in the Rose Garden a week ago, now deemed a
superspreader event, have tested positive for COVID-19 including Whitehouse
counselor Hope Hicks, Senator Mike Lee, Senator Thom Tillis, former Whitehouse
counselor Kellyanne Conway, former governor Chris Christie and Reverend John
Jenkins. This is eight people so far and there may be up to a dozen infected
with covid that attended the event. Lee was walking around hugging and kissing
everyone as if he was Tom Jones the entertainer from Wales singing, “It’s Not
Unusual.” The people infected had aisle seats that would aid the exposure and
spread of the virus. Christie has checked himself into a hospital. Christie and
Trump are obese men and at a higher risk for complications.
The timeline for approving Barrett to the Supreme Court
before the election may be in jeopardy. Hearings are supposed to begin next
Monday, 10/12/20, but senators and governors are becoming sick with covid which
may impact the schedule. Of course, republican Senate Majority Leader McConnell
says full steam ahead.
The vice president debate occurs on Wednesday, 10/7/20,
where current republican Mike Pence faces off against democrat challenger
Kamala Harris. The event remains a go. Pence was at the Rose Garden event
interacting with Trump and others but is testing negative thus far for the
virus. The debate commission originally had the debaters sitting 7 feet (2.1 m)
apart but that is now expanded to 12 feet (3.7 m). Who knows what will happen
by hump day? Doctors and other officials at Johns-Hopkins are asking that the
vice-presidential debate and the remaining two presidential debates occur
virtually.
Pence is receiving a lot of heat for plans to continue
campaigning since he is next in line to be president should Trump’s health
deteriorate. House Leader Pelosi is third in succession if Pence would then
become incapacitated. The vice president remains the dutiful confidant of Trump
but in the back of his mind he has to be thinking that President Pence has a
nice ring to it.
Most at the Rose Garden superspreader event shunned masks
and social distancing guidelines. Now they worry that they have covid. The Supreme
Court candidate Barrett reveals that she had coronavirus this year. Perhaps
Trump got the virus from the candidate’s children? The Whitehouse says it has
begun contact tracing of all the attendees at the event but people are asked if
they have been notified and many have not. It sounds like more Whitehouse spin.
The Whitehouse has said for months that the president is
tested for covid daily but the timeline of his illness is coming under
scrutiny. Trump announced that he tested positive for covid early Friday
morning supposedly for the first time and then his condition rapidly
deteriorated during Friday to the point of requiring hospitalization. Doctors
say that coronavirus does not function that way and the president was likely
already infected a day or few earlier. Whitehouse aids say the president looked
fatigued and sick on Wednesday. The debate against Biden was the night before.
A scandal will develop if the president knew he was sick but continued
conducting business as usual infecting others. Trump went to the fundraising
event perhaps knowing that he was infected with covid. That is not good. His
campaign desperately needs funds for the remaining 30 days.
The president’s ongoing health drama began at 12:55 AM EST
Friday morning, 10/2/20, when Trump informed the public that he and the First
Lady tested positive for coronavirus. US futures markets tanked -2% immediately;
modest losses. The stock market recovered during the day to finish down about
-1% for the major indexes. The news was shocking. If the most protected man on
the planet (Trump) can contract the virus, anyone can.
The misinformation and chaos began immediately. The
Whitehouse was tight-lipped all morning long then releasing information
painting a rosy picture. The seriousness of the situation hit when news reports
say that Trump is given the Regeneron experimental antibody cocktail infusion
treatment. The president is very sick and this is apparent as he does not
appear on camera during the day Friday. Trump filed a ‘compassionate use
request’ to receive the experimental therapy and of course he was given the
treatment. The privileged elite class are taken well care of in America; the
huddled masses would have been denied treatment.
A stink develops since the president attended a fundraising
event at Bedminster golf course on Thursday afternoon in New Jersey knowing
that he may have covid. In fact, the Whitehouse reduced the number of staff
attending the event due to the concern over the president or others potentially
testing positive for covid. It is irresponsible and shows poor judgement to
attend a fundraising event when you believe you are sick but that is Our
Donnie. Trump always places himself above all else. Over 200 people attended
many without masks or practicing social distancing. One donor to Trump’s
campaign is irate that the president came to the event knowing he may be sick.
Humorously, that donor probably shook Trump’s hand. Again, the Whitehouse says,
in cooperation with New Jersey, that the attendees are notified about potential
exposure to the virus but some people say they have not been contacted.
The situation took a turn for the worse on Friday afternoon
when the Whitehouse announced that Trump would be admitted to Walter Reed Medical
Center. At 5:20 PM EST, Marine One, the president’s helicopter, lands on the
Whitehouse lawn. Trump walks to the helicopter but does not stop to take any
questions. He is wearing a mask and lightly waves to the press crew. At the
same time he releases a short video he taped minutes before. Trump’s complexion
is pale; for the first time his head is not orange.
After settling in at Walter Reed, Trump tweets at 11:31 PM
EST; “Going well. I think! Thank you to all. Love!!!” Overnight into Saturday,
yesterday, Trump is also given Gilead’s anti-viral drug Remdesivir. They are
pumping Trump full of drugs to help him recover. In an odd statement, doctors
say that Trump has not required supplemental oxygen. Trump controls the
messaging, even on his sick bed, so if the doctors are making such a statement
it is probably more likely that the president did receive oxygen. He routinely
lies and this odd statement sticks out. Three journalists that attended the
Rose garden event have tested positive for covid and are quarantining.
On Saturday morning just before 12 noon, at Walter Reed, ten
doctors in white lab coats walk out of the hospital to a podium for a press
conference. Young Doctor Sean Conley creates more confusion not providing basic
health information about the president such as temperature, heartbeat, etc..
When asked if the president received oxygen he keeps saying, “not at this
time.” Well, when did he? In addition, the doctor says the president has been
sick for 72 hours which did not match the timeline.
Chaos and confusion are the hallmarks of the coronavirus
pandemic in 2020. The doctors are obviously trying to paint a rosy picture by
King Donnie’s decree. Conley loses his credibility. They are doctors they
should simply be informing the American public about Trump’s medical health
with data but instead it is political spin. They are 10 spin doctors rather
than medical doctors.
The Whitehouse says there is no transfer of power to Vice
President Pence. Perhaps that is why there is concern over disclosing that the
president is or was on oxygen. The confusion after the doctor’s press
conference is so great that they provide clarifications. Doctors admit that
Trump was given oxygen on Friday but is not currently receiving oxygen. This is
a sign that he may have lung problems. Covid is an upper respiratory illness.
Dr Conley also back pedals on the timeline saying he misspoke but he was
actually reading from a prepared statement that is approved by Trump.
Chief of Staff Meadows says Trump’s condition had
deteriorated on Friday and he is not out of the woods yet. Meadows says the
next 24 hours are critical. Trump is apparently livid at Meadows remarks since
the president is trying to paint a rosy picture. Meadows runs to Fox News
proclaiming, “I’m very optimistic” and “the president is doing extremely well.”
What a joke it all is; humans selling their souls daily. Most of what you hear
is lies. This is America in 2020.
Dirtbag Chinese Dictator Xi sends well wishes to President
Trump but waited a couple days. Other world leaders wished Trump a speedy
recovery as soon as they heard the news. Dirtbag Xi waited on purpose to send a
message that he could not care less about how it turns out for the president.
The US-China relationship continues deteriorating. Trump will continue to call
out Xi and communist China for releasing their bioterrorism upon the world, as
he should.
President Trump is taking the following drugs and
supplements; Regeneron’s experimental antibody cocktail infusion, Gilead’s
Remdesivir, Dexamethasone a steroid, Famotidine which is a stomach acid
reliever like Pepcid, aspirin, zinc and vitamin D which strengthen the immune
system, and melatonin which helps with sleep. Some people become aggressive
when taking steroids. President Trump is the only coronavirus patient in the US
that has received a triple-treatment of the experimental cocktail, Remdesivir
and steroids all at the same time.
The Walter Reed doctors are asked about Trump’s lung and
other scans but no information will be released. Conley says the scans are “as
expected.” Since the Whitehouse and Walter Reed doctors will not come clean
about the president’s condition and treatment, everyone is left to guess or
come up with theories. Several doctors suggest that if steroids are given,
which should only be administered to severely ill patients, and the scans are ‘as
expected’, that means Trump likely has pneumonia. That is scary and would be
the reason Trump wants to control the message; he does not want anyone to know
he is battling pneumonia especially foreign leaders and also right before the
election.
On Sunday afternoon, today, 10/4/20, the Walter Reed
bumbling doctors create more controversy with misinformation. Dr Conley
clarifies prior statements and says the president was on oxygen twice on Friday
but not on Saturday or today. It is difficult to believe the doctor since the
story keeps changing. Conley loses credibly as he talks cryptically. Conley
defends himself and admits he is putting a happy spin on things but that should
not be his function. Americans want to know how the president is doing
medically rather than watch a 10-doctor political tap-dancing show. The
misinformation fuels wild speculation about Trump’s health as well as
conspiracy theories.
The stunning statement today from Conley is that the
president may be released from the hospital tomorrow (Monday). These statements
are made to calm markets. Trump then stages the photo-op publicity stunt riding
in a motorcade around the hospital to wave to his supporters. The media will be
tracking the two secret service agents in the front seat of the SUV to see if
they contract covid. Americans are told to self-isolate if they suspect they
have contracted coronavirus and here is the president, fully infected with
COVID-19, riding around the hospital. It’s hilarious. It is the bread and
circus days when everything is entertainment.
China’s coronavirus bioweapon, spawned at the two Wuhan
laboratories, has infected over 35.4 million people around the world killing
over 1 million souls. 26.6 million people have recovered. The Chinese
communists unleash bioterrorism upon the planet.
The Wuhan Flu, President Trump calls it the China Virus, has
attacked and sickened over 7.6 million Americans (2.3% of the 330 million US
population; 1 in every 43 citizens), the highest number of cases in the world,
murdering nearly 215K United States citizens. 4.8 million people have
recovered. America is only 4% of the world’s population but has one-fifth (22%)
of the coronavirus cases and one-fifth (21%) of the deaths.
China unleashes bioterrorism upon the world while restarting
their economy. The communists are getting back to normal while the rest of the
world cleans up the Chinese mess. China owes the world restitution for
releasing their experimental Wuhan Flu bioweapon on the world’s population.
China must pay for its bioterrorism and crimes against humanity.
The US new cases chart is shown above. Charts are provided
by Worldometer and annotated by Keystone. New cases are important since they lead
to more active cases which then lead to more deaths. New cases peaked on
7/24/20 but are on the move again. The 7-day moving average for the new cases smooths
out the data so you can get a read on the general trend. This calculation
produces a number that simply takes the last 7 days of new cases, adds them
together, and divides by 7. Then, the following day, the same calculation is
repeated with the number from eight days ago dropping out and the new number on
the current day included. This calculation is performed each day and produces
the 7-day MA smoothing mechanism. What is your conclusion? Yes, the number of
new cases is in an upward trend which does not portend well for the United
States (red arrow).
Note how the largest new cases days are one week apart; 9/11/20, 9/18/20, 9/25/20, 10/2/20. This is likely due to the methodology behind reporting numbers. There are probably more facilities tallying and sending their numbers in on Fridays. The next day in the series is 10/9/20 this coming Friday. This new cases data is key. If it is a large number, the US is in trouble. If it subsides lower, that will help bend the 7-day MA lower and keep hope alive that the active cases bell curve chart will roll over.
The US active cases chart provided above is important since
the peak in the bell curve shape represents the maximum strain on healthcare
workers and medical equipment. America had its best chance to tamp down covid
in late May and early June but restless citizens, following weak, chaotic and
confusing leadership, decided to party on Memorial Day. Folks went to the beach
and got together to celebrate the start of summer but that was the death nail.
Covid infections increase and the active cases curve moves higher nullifying
the potential bell shape.
Fast forward to today where America now has a second bite at
the apple. The active cases peaked at 2,597,268 on 9/1/20. The curve is flat
ever since, now for one solid month, but has not yet rolled over lower to
create the bell shape and verify that the virus is defeated and on its way to
extinction. The curve is playing coy not yet verifying which direction it will
break. On 10/3/20, yesterday, the active cases are at 2,568,060 so we are
talking very close numbers. If the active cases curve simply moves up by 30K
cases, the US is toast into the end of the year. Sadly, as you read and study
the remainder of this article, the chances look greater that the active cases
bell curve will head higher again. Hope and pray that this does not happen,
otherwise, the holidays will be sad.
The US death chart is at 214K American souls as October 2020
begins. That is a lot of mothers and fathers, sons and daughters, brothers and
sisters and friends and neighbors. The dashed orange line curve-fits the data
and projects 265K deaths by 1/1/2021. Perhaps America will be lucky if this is
the number as 2021 begins. The IHME data is projecting 371,509 deaths by
1/1/2021 shown by the red dashed line. For the United States to get up there a
quicker acceleration in deaths would have to occur in November. That must be
what they are expecting.
Perhaps many of the most vulnerable in the US have already
succumbed to covid and the new cases now, with more children and young adults contracting
the virus from attending schools and colleges, will result in less deaths. The
young fight the disease better than the old, obese or those with comorbidities
(heart disease, diabetes, etc..).
Averaging recent data, there is a 99.7% chance that you will
live if you contract covid and under 69 years old. If over 70 years old (the
president is 74 years old), there is a 95% chance that you will live. In other
words, 1 out of every 20 people that are over 70 that contract covid will die.
Picture a suede pouch containing 20 playing cards. You are over 70 years old
and just tested positive for COVID-19. You reach your hand into the bag to
choose one of the 20 cards hoping and praying that you do not retrieve the Ace
of Spades death card.
The New York active cases bell curve chart is shown above.
New York defeated the virus in July as the bell curve forms and verifies that
the worst is over. So New York is proud of itself for a couple months, August
and September, but here comes the coronavirus again raising its ugly head with
rising new cases (yellow arrow). The latest data, yesterday, shows new cases
continuing higher which will likely extend the projection for the peak in the
active cases curve much further out; perhaps by one or two months depending on
how many new cases appear.
The charts for New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, and
New Hampshire are the same as New York’s chart above. It is a shame since the
US is slipping backwards again into the covid tar pit. Sadly, it hints that the
US active cases bell curve chart may stop flattening and actually start higher
again. That would be tragic. All hope for a normal life would be lost until
2021. Society would become collectively depressed.
The USA has the greatest number of total coronavirus cases in
the world followed by India, Brazil, Russia, Colombia, Peru, Spain, Argentina, Mexico,
South Africa, France, UK, Iran, Chile, Bangladesh, Saudi Arabia, Italy, Philippines,
Turkey, Pakistan, Indonesia and Germany. Spain and Argentina move higher on the
list indicating that the virus is worsening. Ditto the UK and Italy.
An update for The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection
Rate Model (TKSCIRM) is provided since another 10-day period passes, and more
data and information are available. This is Article 21 in the coronavirus
series that provides real-time information for historians, teachers, students, journalists,
economists, market participants, corporate executives, financial managers, doctors,
nurses, medical personnel, researchers, public officials and politicians
studying the COVID-19 pandemic. This twenty-first article is published on Sunday,
10/4/20.
The Keystone Speculator’s Coronavirus Series of Articles are
the only real-time source of information available continuously chronicling the
ongoing COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Readers live and breathe the pandemic, the
worst in a century, as it occurs in real-time, from the beginning.
The first article in the coronavirus series is US
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infections Chart 3/15/20; The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus Infection Rate Model; US COVID-19 Infections Surpass 3,300; Federal
Reserve Blinks and Cuts Interest Rates to the Zero Bound Embracing ZIRP and
Announcing $700 Billion QE Program; US Futures Tank Limit-Down; Coronavirus
Archive Article 1 published 3/15/20.
The second article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 3/24/20; Italy Daily Cases Leveling Off;
US Daily Cases Continue Rising; Congress Negotiating Fiscal Stimulus Bill;
Coronavirus Archive Article 2 published 3/24/20.
The third article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/3/20; Italy Daily Active Cases
Peaking; United States Faces Ugly Coronavirus Pain Ahead; US Monthly Jobs
Report; Coronavirus Archive Article 3 published 4/3/20.
The fourth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/13/20; US Active Cases Continue
Rising; India, Indonesia, Singapore, Japan, Russia, Peru, Ecuador and UK Headed
for Trouble; Second Wave Worries; President Trump Ushers in Age of MMT (Modern
Monetary Theory (Limitless Spending)); Rampant Job Losses; People in Need;
Finger-Pointing Begins; Worldwide COVID-19 Cases Top 2 Million; Coronavirus
Archive Article 4 published 4/13/20.
The fifth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/23/20; Australia, South Korea,
Switzerland, Germany, Hong Kong, Taiwan and China are Coronavirus Success
Stories; Italy, France and Spain Finally at Top of Active Case Bell Curve; UK,
Ecuador, Japan, Turkey, Peru, Brazil, Canada, Indonesia, India, Russia, Mexico
and Singapore Brace for Virus Pain; Countries Anxious to Restart Economies;
“Flattening the Curve” Term Misused; Ongoing Shortages of Virus Testing
Supplies and PPE (Personal Protective equipment); Congress Passes $484 Billion
Spending Bill; US COVID-19 Deaths Top 50,000; GRIM VIRUS NEWS 4/25/20; Coronavirus
Archive Article 5 published on 4/23/20.
The sixth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate model Update 5/3/20; America Restarts Economy as New
Virus Cases Increase; US Active Cases Not Expected to Peak Until 5/21/20; 68K
Americans Dead from COVID-19 More Than Vietnam War; Testing Deficiencies
Continue; Coronavirus Preferentially Hurts Black Community; Brazil, Nigeria,
South Africa, India, Russia, Mexico and Chile Descend Into COVID-19 Hell this
Month; US-China Relations Collapsing; President Trump Says 100K People May Die;
U of W Model Says 134K May Die in US; Coronavirus Article 6 published on
5/3/20.
The seventh article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 5/14/20; Russia, India, Nigeria, Brazil,
UK and Philippines Remain Mired in Virus Trouble; South Africa, Indonesia,
Chile, Peru and Mexico are in COVID-19 Hell; America Restarts Economy Before
Flattening the Curve; Texas, California, New Jersey and New York Worst Virus
States; Testing Deficiencies Persist; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Second
Wave Fears; Coronavirus Article 7 published on 5/14/20.
The eighth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 5/24/20; Math Explains the Black and
Latino Infections and Ongoing Coronavirus Zeitgeist; Russia, Poland, Brazil,
Peru, Bolivia, Chile, Argentina, Columbia, Honduras, Mexico, India, Pakistan,
Bangladesh, Indonesia, Nigeria, Kenya, Egypt and South Africa in COVID-19 Hell;
America Restarts Economy; US Active Cases Curve Finally Flattens; New York,
Florida, Ohio, Washington, California, Texas, Arkansas and North Carolina are
Worst States Not Yet Able to Flatten the Curve; Coronavirus Tragedy Turns Political;
President Trump Refuses to Wear a Mouth Diaper (Face Mask); Hertz Goes
Bankrupt; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Second Wave Fears; Trump Golfs; US
DEATHS EXCEED 100,000; Coronavirus Article 8 published on 5/24/20.
The ninth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/3/20; Indonesia, Philippines, Egypt,
Kenya, South Africa, Mexico, Honduras, Columbia, Brazil, Peru, Bolivia, Chile,
Argentina, Bangladesh, Pakistan and India are in COVID-19 Hell; America Continues
Reopening the Economy; US Active Cases Curve Finally Flattens (Tentatively);
Texas, Arkansas, North Carolina and California are Troubled States; Second Wave
Worries Continue; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Population Becoming
Complacent About COVID-19; Coronavirus Article 9 published on 6/3/20.
The tenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/13/20; Philippines, Peru, Iran, Kenya,
Poland, Sweden, India, Indonesia, Honduras, Brazil, Bolivia, Chile, Pakistan,
Bangladesh, South Africa, Egypt, Columbia and Argentina are in COVID-19 Hell;
US Virus Cases Rising in Many States Due to Increased Testing, Reopening the
Economy, Protests and Large Groups Gathering; Arizona, Texas, Arkansas, South
Carolina, North Carolina, California and Florida are in Serious Trouble;
President Trump Moves Republican Convention to Florida Where Virus Cases are
Spiking; Protests and Riots Increase Around the World; US Police Under Scrutiny
for Racial Injustice; Public Health Authorities Clueless; Coronavirus Article
10 published on 6/13/20.
The eleventh article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/23/20; Pandemic in the Sunbelt (US
South and West); Arizona, California, Texas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Florida,
Carolina’s, Arkansas and New Mexico are US Hot-Spots; Houston Running Out of
Beds; South Asia, America’s and Africa Experiencing COVID-19 Hell; US, Bolivia,
Argentina, Guatemala, India and Philippines are in Serious Trouble;
Deteriorating US-China Relations and Increasing US COVID-19 Cases Creating
Market Angst; Coronavirus Article 11 published on 6/23/20.
The twelfth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 7/4/20; US Experiencing Dramatic Uptick
in Cases as President Trump and Vice President Pence Signal the All-Clear;
Ohio, Florida, Carolina’s, Arkansas, Georgia, California, Alabama, Arizona,
Texas and Oklahoma are in COVID-19 Hell; Texas, Arizona and Florida are
Reaching Limits on ICU Beds; US, Bolivia, Argentina, Colombia, Guatemala,
Honduras, Mexico, Philippines, Indonesia, India, Bangladesh, South Africa and
Kenya are in Serious Coronavirus Trouble; COVID-19 Timeline; Coronavirus
Article 12 published on 7/4/20.
The thirteenth article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 7/14/20; President Trump
Pressures States to Reopen Schools; Donnie Finally Dons a Face Diaper; US Death
Numbers Controversy Explained; RNC (Republican) Convention in Jeopardy; Kansas,
Washington, Tennessee, Alaska, the Carolina’s, Idaho, Wisconsin, Arkansas,
Oregon, Ohio, Louisiana, Georgia, Utah, Montana, Alabama, Oklahoma, Missouri
and Kentucky Join Florida, Texas, Arizona and California in the Coronavirus
Cesspool; Oman, India, El Salvador, Bolivia, Argentina, South Africa, Romania,
Mexico, Colombia and USA are in COVID-19 Hell; US-China Relations
Deteriorating; Italy Textbook Bell Curve; New Kazakhstan Virus; Coronavirus
Article 13 published on 7/14/20.
The fourteenth article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 7/24/20; President Trump
Reverses Course Touting Mask Use and Restarting Coronavirus Press Conferences;
Over 20 Million Americans Remain Unemployed; New Mexico, Alabama, Wisconsin,
Arkansas, Alaska, North Carolina, California, Oklahoma and Missouri are the
Most-Infected States; US Healthcare System is Under Heavy Pressure Through
August; Australia, Hong Kong and Japan Hit with Second Waves; India, El
Salvador, Argentina, South Africa, Romania, Brazil, Bolivia, Mexico,
Kazakhstan, Colombia, Kenya and United States are Most-Infected Nations; US-China
Tensions Escalate; US Congress Negotiating Another Stimulus Bill; Coronavirus
Article 14 published on 7/24/20.
The fifteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 8/3/20; Australia, Hong Kong, Japan,
Spain and Peru Handling Second Wave; Philippines, Colombia, Bolivia, Mexico,
India, Ukraine, El Salvador, Peru, Spain, Argentina, Romania and Brazil in
COVID-19 Hell; 41 US States Show Active Cases Curves Continuing Higher; 9 US
States are in a Second Wave; Coronavirus Particle Size Analysis and Aerosol
Behavior; Public Restrooms and Fecal Matter May Be Major Factors in Virus
Transmission; Testing Troubles Continue; AstraZeneca Granted Protection from
Vaccine Liability; Coronavirus Article 15 published on 8/3/20.
The sixteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 8/13/20; Finally Good Pandemic News for
the United States; Europe Slipping Into Second Wave Behavior; Most Problematic
Virus-Infected Nations are India, Philippines, Romania, Ukraine, Iraq,
Colombia, Peru, Bolivia, Argentina, El Salvador, Netherlands, Belgium, France
and Spain; Worst US States are Kentucky, California, Mississippi, Illinois,
Indiana, Arkansas, Virginia, Idaho, Wisconsin, North Dakota and Hawaii; US
Congress Deadlocked on Stimulus Bill After President Trump Signs Executive
Order; US Testing Troubles Continue; Good News Turns Bad with US Active Cases
Resuming the Uptrend; Coronavirus Article 16 published on 8/13/20.
The seventeenth article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 8/23/20; US is Struggling to
‘Flatten the Curve’; Australia, Hong Kong and Japan Defeat the Second Wave;
European Countries Mired in Second Wave Include France, Spain, Italy, Belgium,
Netherlands, Finland, Ireland, Austria, Switzerland, Germany, Greece, Poland
and Czechia; Peru, Nepal, Turkey and UAE are also in Second Waves; Worst
Countries are India, Ukraine, UAE, Moldova, Croatia, Albania, Greece, Poland,
Switzerland, Italy and France; North Korea in Famine; 9 US States in Second
Wave; Worst US States are Illinois, South Dakota, North Dakota, Michigan, Iowa,
Wyoming, Kansas, Missouri, North Carolina, Delaware, Hawaii, Kentucky and
California; US Congress is on Vacation Remaining Deadlocked on Stimulus Bill;
RNC Convention Begins; Coronavirus Article 17 published on 8/23/20.
The eighteenth article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 9/2/20; US Unable to
‘Flatten the Curve’; Countries with Worst New Cases are India, UAE, Czechia,
Turkey, Ireland, Finland, Spain, Costa Rica, Canada, Italy, Nepal, Peru,
Honduras, Indonesia, Ukraine, France and Greece; Europe Deals with Second Wave;
Worst US States are West Virginia, Mississippi, Kansas, South Dakota, North
Dakota, South Carolina, Illinois, Iowa, Alabama, Rhode Island, Delaware,
Hawaii, Kentucky, Virginia, Alaska, Oregon, Georgia and Arizona; US Congress
Continues Fiscal Stimulus Talks; Polls Tighten in US Presidential Race; Coronavirus Article 18 published on 9/2/20.
The nineteenth article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 9/12/20; United States
Finally Flattening the Active Cases Bell Curve Chart; President Trump Admits He
Downplayed Virus; US Schools and Colleges Reopen; 2% of Americans Have Been or
Are Infected with Coronavirus; Second Wave Consumes Europe; 31 Nations Report
Increases in New Cases This Month; 26 Countries Report Increases in New Cases
in Last Two Days; New Cases Spike in 15 US States in Last 9 Days; 28 US States
Cannot Yet Flatten the Curve; Congress Unable to Agree on Stimulus Bill;
COVID-19 Has Killed Over 200,000 Americans; Coronavirus Article 19 published on
9/12/20.
The twentieth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 9/24/20; Over 200,000 Americans Dead; US
is Flattening the Active Cases Bell Curve Chart but 35 States Are Struggling;
10 US States Report Highest New Coronavirus Cases Ever including Wyoming,
Kansas, North Dakota, South Dakota, Missouri, Minnesota, Utah, West Virginia,
Arkansas and Illinois; Europe is in COVID-19 Hell but Only Imposing
Lockdown-Lite Restrictions; Israel Imposes Strict Lockdown; 19 Countries Report
Highest New COVID-19 Cases Ever Including Spain, Netherlands, UK, Poland,
Romania, Hungary, Greece, Czechia, Moldova, Ukraine, UAE, Iran, Iraq, Bahrain,
Israel, Nepal, Morocco, Indonesia and Argentina; President Trump Asks UN
Members to Hold China Accountable for “The China Virus”; Congress Unable to
Agree on Fiscal Stimulus Bill; US Stock Market Slips into a -10% Correction;
WORDWIDE CORONAVIRUS DEATHS EXCEED 1 MILION PEOPLE; PRESIDENT TRUMP AND FIRST
LADY MELANIA TEST POSITIVE FOR COVID-19; Coronavirus Article 20 published on
9/24/20.
The Worldometer web site is useful in tracking coronavirus (COVID-19)
around the world and its link is provided. Many charts in the coronavirus
series of articles are provided courtesy of Worldometer and annotated by
Keystone.
The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model (TKSCIRM)
forecasts the peak date in active coronavirus cases for any country or region
which represents the maximum strain on medical personnel and facilities. The
Keystone Model monitors the Worldometer new case data for a country or region
and identifies the date of the peak in new cases (New Case Peak Date). Once
this occurs, the active case bell curve will peak in 1 to 4 weeks depending on
how the virus situation is handled.
If the country, region or state is well-prepared, the active
cases will peak 11 days, on average, after the new cases peak (think South
Korea, Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, etc..). Even the second wave outbreaks in
Australia, Hong Kong and Japan are brought under control in the same time
period as the initial wave. If the country is not well-prepared, like the US, the
active cases will peak 28 days after the peak in new cases. Same for any US
state. Add 28 days to the New Cases Peak Date to arrive at the Projected Active
Cases Peak Date.
The top of the bell curve pattern on the active cases chart is
important since it represents the maximum strain on medical facilities and
healthcare personnel. Hospitalization data may be retreating but the active
cases curve is far more important. People remain under doctor’s care with
fatigue and other symptoms after they recover from the worst of the virus which
creates an ongoing demand on the healthcare system. Other semi-recovered patients are sent home
or to other medical facilities or nursing homes and not counted in the
hospitalization data but they remain a strain on the medical system. The
coronavirus pandemic is only under control when the active cases curve rolls
over lower forming the bell shape.
After many months, the US active cases curve finally
flattens and hopefully will move lower to create the bell shape. The discussion
about ‘flattening the curve’ pertains to the active cases bell curve chart
shown above and not to the new cases bar chart. The media and citizens are
confused with the charts and data since medical officials and politicians do
not properly explain or understand these concepts themselves. Perhaps they want
to keep the public in the dark.
The Keystone Model uses the new case peak date for
forecasting the peak in the active cases bell curve. Any subsequent higher new
case numbers will create a new case peak date. Also, if the number of new cases
is within 8% of the prior peak, that new date becomes the new case peak date
where 28 days is added (or 11 days for nations that handle the virus better) to
project when the peak in the active cases chart will occur. The behavior of
higher high new case numbers signals that the virus is getting worse in that
region. Obviously, all nations want their new cases to trend lower and drop to
zero.
The peak new case date for the US is 7/24/20 with 78,850 new
cases in one day. Adding 28 days, provides a target date of 8/21/20 for the US
active cases to peak and it peaked on 9/1/20 (as long as the Labor Day party
weekend and schools reopening do not create a reacceleration in new cases).
Reference the chart above.
The nations that have weathered the latest virus storm with
their active cases charts rolling over to form the bell shape are the United
States of America (tentatively; the curve above is flat as a pancake but
remains a coin-toss), Brazil, Colombia, Peru, South Africa, Chile (watch it
since new cases may be starting to move higher), Bangladesh, Saudi Arabia,
Pakistan (watch it), Bolivia, Qatar, Dominican Republic, Panama, Kazakhstan,
Philippines (data is messy), Egypt, Kuwait, Guatemala (watch it), China (the
bioterrorists that unleashed their global virus experiment), Japan, Australia,
South Korea, Honduras, Venezuela, Nigeria, Singapore and El Salvador.
The 45 worst global hotspots that have not yet flattened the
curve are highlighted in the list below with their projected peaks in active
cases dates (maximum stress on healthcare workers and medical equipment and systems)
provided.
Mexico
8/2/20 New Case Peak Date (daily
new cases rising in September)
8/30/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (chart tried to peak 9/14/20 thru 9/25/20 but has now blown out higher
again)
8/28/20 New Case Peak Date
9/25/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (chart continues higher)
9/14/20 New Case Peak Date
10/12/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days; may have peaked 9/30/20)
9/16/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
10/14/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days; may have peaked 9/18/20 which means data is
problematic)
9/18/20 New Case Peak Date
10/16/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (may have peaked 9/26/20)
9/18/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
10/16/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
9/19/20 New Case Peak Date
10/17/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (may have peaked 9/17/20 so data is problematic)
9/20/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases since mid-July)
10/1/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days; chart trying to flatten)
9/21/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases since March)
10/19/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days; may have peaked 9/30/20)
9/23/20 New Case Peak Date
10/21/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
9/23/20 New Case Peak Date (Sept
new cases highest since May)
10/21/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days; curve trying to flatten)
9/23/20 New Case Peak Date
(enormous spike higher)
10/4/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days; may have peaked 10/1/20)
9/25/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
10/23/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
9/30/20 New Case Peak Date (Sept
new cases highest since 4/10/20)
10/28/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
9/30/20 New Case Peak Date
10/28/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
10/1/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
10/29/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
10/2/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
10/13/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days)
10/2/20
New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
10/30/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
10/2/20 New Case Peak Date (highest
cases ever on 5/3, 9/28 and 10/2/20)
10/30/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
10/2/20
New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
10/13/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days; data is problematic)
10/2/20
New Case Peak Date (highest new cases for second wave and since April)
10/13/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
10/2/20
New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
10/30/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days; data is problematic)
10/2/20
New Case Peak Date (highest new cases since late Aug-Sept)
10/30/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
10/2/20
New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever 9/30, 10/1 and 10/2/20)
10/30/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
10/2/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever in Sept-Oct)
10/30/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
10/2/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
10/30/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days; data is problematic)
10/2/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
10/30/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
10/3/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever 9/18, 9/26, 10/3)
9/29/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
10/3/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases for second wave)
10/31/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
10/3/20
New Case Peak Date (highest new cases ever)
10/31/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
10/3/20 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever are 3/26 during first wave and 10/3/20 during current second
wave)
10/14/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days)
10/3/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases for second wave and since April)
10/14/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days; chart is moving higher)
10/3/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases since early May)
10/14/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days; chart is moving higher)
10/3/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
10/31/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
10/3/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases since May)
10/31/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
10/3/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
10/31/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date
10/3/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
10/14/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 11 days)
10/3/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases ever)
10/31/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
10/3/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
10/31/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
10/3/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever on 3/31, 4/10 and 10/3)
10/31/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
10/3/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases since June)
10/31/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
10/3/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases since August)
10/31/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days; data is problematic)
10/3/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases since July)
10/31/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
10/3/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
10/31/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
10/3/20 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases since 9/6/20)
10/31/20 Projected Active Case
Peak Date (based on 28 days)
North Korea (no virus data is available; the hermit kingdom is in famine; Kim Jong-un may be dead or comatose)
The new cases continue expanding for 30 of the 45 countries listed. The active cases charts will not yet roll over to form the bell shape for all 45 nations so the strain on medical workers and equipment continues (which includes care after hospitalizations). Europe is in major trouble. Major countries such as Italy, France, Belgium, Ireland and the Netherlands show big spikes higher in new cases and the active cases curves continue higher. Paris is closing schools. France faces a very difficult week ahead. UK PM Johnson considers stricter lockdown measures.
Sweden is back on the radar with a spike in new cases. There was lots of attention on Sweden in the early months of the pandemic since strict lockdown measures were not implemented instead in favor of a herd immunity approach. The population, however, chose to follows safe guidelines such as mask-wearing and social distancing anyway so the test case is inconclusive. Now, after the pandemic was thought to be in the rearview mirror, it raises its ugly head again in Sweden.
The 30 countries experiencing big spikes in new cases (most are the highest new cases ever while others are the highest new cases of the second wave) are; Czechia, Morocco, Italy, Belgium, Austria, Ireland, Hungary, Canada, Greece, Finland, Iraq, UAE, Russia, Ukraine, Romania, Poland, Germany, France, Netherlands, Portugal, UK, Croatia, Moldova, Belarus, Argentina, Sweden, Uzbekistan, Armenia, Georgia and Belize.
Belize is where America’s wealthy class go to hang out as a getaway. If the violence and riots, and perhaps targeting of the wealthy, continue and increase in America, Belize is a planned destination for many rich folks. The banking support is there, it’s clean, crime is low and the area is English-speaking. As the privileged elite class comingle in Belize, drinking martinis with their pinky fingers extended and noses lifted in the air, coronavirus circulates and attacks the country not impressed by such bourgeois human behavior.
Israel imposes a strict lockdown over the last week and the active cases curve may be peaking now. The next days will be key. Time and again, the countries that can impose strict lockdowns on the population, where the people are either forced to, or obey, the government’s edicts, like communist nations, dictatorships, authoritarian nations and even countries with a benign and apathetic citizenry, get a much faster handle on the pandemic outbreaks than Western nations that are comprised of more free-spirited and free-will type individuals such as America, Canada and Europe. Many people believe that you only have one life to live, and it goes fast, so do not let a little ole virus get in the way of party time. If Israel succeeds in tamping down the active cases bell curve chart quickly again, perhaps they can provide a lockdown guideline for other Western nations to follow (depending on how many, if any, individual Israeli rights were squashed).
India remains in the coronavirus quagmire but at least shows some stabilization and perhaps a way out of the pandemic nightmare. Canada leaves its guard down as evidenced by the new cases spiking higher. Mexico, that was finally turning the corner, has now fallen back down into COVID-19 Hell.
In Switzerland, Ktipp, a Consumer Reports-style magazine, says virus infection rates subside regardless of whether or not masks are in use. European shopping data was studied and did not show any appreciable difference in the spread and decrease of coronavirus in stores that mandated masks versus those that did not. In addition, Ktipp highlights the downsides to mask wearing such as the lack of cleanliness of the masks, wearing one-use masks multiple times, wearing masks backwards and upside down, touching a mask without washing hands, skin irritations, shortness of breath, etc… Masks likely do not do much to stop the spread of covid but every little bit helps and for some folks a mask provides a sense of security. Part of the problem is that masks are simply not meant to be worn all day long.
For America, the troubled US states are highlighted below with their projections on when the active cases curve will peak-out (max strain on healthcare system) as per the Keystone Model. The top 14 states for total virus cases, from highest to lowest, are California (worst), Texas, Florida, New York, Georgia, Illinois, Arizona, North Carolina, New Jersey, Tennessee, Louisiana, Pennsylvania, Alabama and Ohio. The list has not changed over the last three weeks with the exception of North Carolina leapfrogging New Jersey.
Texas, Florida, Illinois, Arizona, Pennsylvania and Ohio are key battleground states for the presidential election on 11/3/20, only 30 days away, so voters may choose a candidate depending on how the virus proceeds. Pennsylvania is extremely important to both Trump and Biden and a second wave is starting to appear in the Keystone State.
Dr Fauci says the trend line is going the wrong way as the United States heads into winter. Fauci had hoped that the infections would subside and the country would be at a lower base as the fall season begins but no such luck. The regular flu season is beginning along with the ongoing covid pandemic.
Typically, the future president, be it Trump reelected or Biden elected, will win Florida and Ohio. Florida election results should be known by about 9 PM EST on 11/3/20 and that should indicate which silver-haired white guy will win. A WSJ poll shows Biden ahead of Trump by 14 points after the debate last Tuesday but before Trump tested positive for covid.
The 11 US states that have successfully created the bell shape on the active cases chart are Texas, Florida, Georgia, Tennessee (data is problematic), Louisiana, Mississippi, Nevada (watch it since new cases are rising but active cases dropping; data is problematic), Hawaii (watch it), Alaska (watch it), Maine, Vermont and District of Columbia (DC; watch it). This list was 15 states 10 days ago so the situation is worsening.
Below is a listing of the 39 states (this list was 35 states 10 days ago so the virus is worsening) having the most trouble in dealing with the covid pandemic. The worst states are at the bottom of the list. California is of grave concern since its active cases chart prints a new higher high and because it is such a large state. California may push the US active cases curve chart higher (shown above) which would create major trouble into year-end.
Maryland (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 7/25/20 (new
cases now moving up towards July and August numbers)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/21/20 (chart continues higher)
New Case Peak Date 8/7/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
9/4/20 (chart continues higher; data is problematic)
New Case Peak Date 8/11/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
9/8/20 (chart continues higher; data is problematic)
New Case Peak Date 8/14/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
9/11/20 (chart continues higher; messy data)
New Case Peak Date 8/28/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
9/25/20 (chart may have peaked 9/21/20)
Illinois (Second Wave) (data is a mess and problematic)
New Case Peak Date 9/4/20 (highest
cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
10/2/20 (chart continues higher)
New Case Peak Date 9/12/20
(highest cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
10/10/20
New Case Peak Date 9/17/20
(highest new cases since late July early August)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
10/15/20 (data is problematic)
New
Case Peak Date 9/21/20 (highest new cases since early April)
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 10/19/20
New Case Peak Date 9/23/20
(highest new cases since early August)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
10/21/20
New Case Peak Date 9/25/20
(highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
10/23/20
New Case Peak Date 9/25/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
10/23/20
New Case Peak Date 9/25/20
(highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
10/23/20
New Case Peak Date 9/25/20
(highest new cases are 7/26 and 9/25/20)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
10/23/20 (chart continues higher)
New Case Peak Date 9/27/20
(highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
10/25/20
New Case Peak Date 9/28/20
(highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
10/26/20
New Case Peak Date 9/28/20
(highest new cases since April, May and Aug)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
10/26/20
New Case Peak Date 9/29/20
(highest new cases since 5/1/20)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
10/27/20
New Case Peak Date 10/1/20
(highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
10/29/20
New Case Peak Date 10/1/20
(highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
10/29/20
New Case Peak Date 10/2/20
(highest new cases ever in Sept-Oct)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
10/30/20
New Case Peak Date 10/2/20
(highest new cases are 7/15, 7/16, 8/6 and 10/2/20)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
10/30/20
New Case Peak Date 10/2/20
(highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
10/30/20
New Case Peak Date 10/2/20
(highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
10/30/20 (active cases chart begins rising again)
New Case Peak Date 10/2/20
(highest new cases since May)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
10/30/20 (active cases chart begins rising again)
New Case Peak Date 10/2/20
(highest new cases since July)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
10/30/20 (active cases chart begins rising again)
New Case Peak Date 10/2/20
(highest new cases since July)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
10/30/20 (active cases chart begins rising again)
New Case Peak Date 10/2/20 (highest
new cases since May)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
10/30/20 (active cases chart begins rising again)
New Case Peak Date 10/3/20
(highest new cases since early Sept and July)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
10/31/20
New Case Peak Date 10/3/20
(highest new cases are 10/1, 10/3 and July)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
10/31/20
New
Case Peak Date 10/3/20 (highest new cases ever on 10/1 and 10/3/20)
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 10/31/20
New
Case Peak Date 10/3/20 (highest new cases are 9/26 and 10/3/20)
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 10/31/20
New
Case Peak Date 10/3/20
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 10/31/20 (data is problematic)
New
Case Peak Date 10/3/20 (highest new cases ever)
Projected
Active Case Peak Date 10/31/20
New Case Peak Date 10/3/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 10/31/20
New Case Peak Date 10/3/20
(highest new cases since June)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
10/31/20 (active cases chart begins rising)
New Case Peak Date 10/3/20
(highest new cases since 5/29/20)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
10/31/20 (active cases chart begins rising as shown above)
New Case Peak Date 10/3/20
(highest new cases ever)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
10/31/20
New Case Peak Date 10/3/20
(highest new cases are 8/24, 10/2 and 10/3/20)
Projected Active Case Peak Date
10/31/20 (data is problematic)
Four out of every five states are seeing new cases rise. This portends badly for the US active cases bell curve (shown above) since new cases lead followed by active cases then deaths.
Several states are in big trouble with new cases accelerating wildly including Missouri, Wisconsin, Kentucky, Nebraska, Montana and Wyoming. You will want to try and stay home for a couple weeks, to the extent that you can, if you live in these states.
In a disappointing twist to the pandemic saga, New York and New Jersey are seeing new cases increase which is bringing on a new second wave of the virus. That is unfortunate since the moral of the population will deteriorate once people realize more trouble is ahead. The pandemic creates mental and emotional problems for folks in the short and long-term. Some people can handle stress and turmoil better than others. Those that can should try and help those that cannot.
Not only is New York and New Jersey slipping back into the coronavirus abyss, but also Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, Connecticut and New Hampshire. These states were thought to be out of the coronavirus woods but in fact they only had walked into a small opening which allows them to now see and realize the massive scale of the covid forest.
The Midwest is spanked hard by COVID-19. HHS Secretary Azar says “plain old community spread” is occurring in the Midwest and Northwest following the same path as prior outbreaks in the Southwest and Southeast US. Hospitalizations are on the rise in several states including the Dakota’s, Wisconsin, Nebraska and Missouri.
A hospital in Wisconsin is placing patients in the hallway since the emergency rooms are full. Wisconsin reports a stunning 23% positivity rate in covid testing. Oh my! The positivity rate for coronavirus tests exceeds 10% in 15 states. Typically, this number must be below 5% to get a handle on the virus and allow contact tracing to occur. Above 5% is a spreading virus that renders contact tracing almost useless. The pandemic in America is a mess month after month.
The income inequality gap in America grows larger each day. The top 1% of Americans, 59 people, own more than the bottom one-half of the nation, about 165 million people. The top 10% wealthiest Americans own 88%, call it 90%, of the US stock market. One-half of Americans do not own a single share of stock. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell speaks on inequality with the following statement; "Combined with the disproportionate effects of covid on communities of color, and the overwhelming burden of childcare during quarantine and distance learning, which has fallen mostly on women, the pandemic is further widening divides in wealth and economic mobility."
Over the last five decades, America's crony capitalism system benefited and enriched 30 million people in the elite privileged class and upper middle class that serve the rich (accountants, financial advisers, doctors, etc...), while screwing the other 300 million citizens. The middle class is destroyed only a shadow of what it was in the 1970's. Poor and disadvantaged folks lack job opportunities. It's payback time for the years ahead.
Now that the president is ill, Whitehouse officials lecture Americans on the three W’s; wearing a mask, watching your social distance and washing your hands. Many Americans ignore the guidelines since the bureaucrats do not follow the rules themselves. Trump, that is infected with covid, takes a ride in the presidential motorcade at the hospital to wave to his supporters. You cannot make the stuff up. The virus continues to spread because there was never a coordinated plan from the federal level. Trump threw the responsibility into the laps of governors and mayors since he was worried about the virus tainting his election prospects. America is left with a mess where politicians shun the virus guidelines they profess. It is not surprising that coronavirus spreads; people remain confused.
Another disturbing aspect in the data above is the states, that were hot spots months ago and thought to have moved on safely from covid, are actually slipping backwards with new cases rising including New York, New Jersey, Colorado, Washington and New Mexico. This illustrates how tough it is to eradicate the disease. Coronavirus is a bad dream that keeps coming back. Communist countries like red China can snuff out the virus faster since they tell everyone to stay home and if you do not, you receive a bullet in your head.
It is interesting that several states are experiencing multiple waves now not only a second wave but some are in third waves and even four such as Ohio. Admittedly, it is partially a judgement call about identifying coronavirus waves. Keystone bases the waves on both the new cases and active cases charts for individual US states and other nations. It is typically clear where the waves are when you look at these charts. A fascinating area of study would be why do certain states experience the waves while others have been on a steady increase in active cases the last few months? There are also several nations that experience multiple waves. Perhaps a focus on these countries and US states with multiple waves can provide insight into how COVID-19 spreads.
For any state that has not yet reached its peak in the active cases curve, simply identify what day the new cases peak and add 28 days to that date to project when the top of the bell curve will occur on the active cases chart as per the Keystone Model. If subsequent new case numbers exceed the new case peak date’s number, or are within 8% of the new case peak date, that new date becomes the new case peak date and 28 days is added to project the active cases peak load. The states at the bottom of the list will be the last to see relief for their healthcare workers and medical equipment.
Monitor the US active cases bell curve chart provided above to see if it continues flattening and rolling over to provide a much-needed rest for the healthcare workers, emergency medics and medical equipment. Considering the increase in new cases and ongoing higher active cases curves in the 39 states listed above, the road ahead does not appear rosy but for now, one can hope that the US active cases curve will continue rolling over. The answer will be known in the few days ahead. If the US active cases curve begins moving higher again, America will be screwed into year-end. The disappointment and increase in infections would demoralize much of the population. New Yorkers are already starting to feel glum as they see infections rise in several communities.
New York Mayor de Blasio, who wants to make himself more relevant, says 20 neighborhoods in Brooklyn and Queens are experiencing virus outbreaks. This checks with the new cases and active cases charts for New York beginning to tick higher. The mayor wants to close schools and nonessential businesses in nine of New York City’s zip codes. Restaurants and gyms will also be impacted to different degrees. The governor would have to sign off on the plan.
The US stock market sold off on news of Trump’s positive coronavirus test. The president was admitted to the hospital on Friday afternoon after the markets were finished trading for the week. Trump pulled his motorcade photo-op stunt at the hospital at 5:30 PM EST one-half hour before the futures markets open. That circus was staged for the markets. S&P futures open up +18 points. The major index futures are up about +0.5% buoyed by the doctors saying that Trump may be released from the hospital tomorrow (Monday).
The urgency for Congress to agree on a stimulus package increases with Trump’s illness. The hope that a deal is announced before the election helps create the lift in the futures markets to begin the new week of trading. Asian markets open and trade higher. If Trump is not released from Walter Reed on Monday, the stock market will probably react negatively.
Note Added Monday, 10/5/20 at 6:00 AM EST: The chaos, confusion and conflicting statements about President Trump’s health continue. Trump entered Walter Reed about 6PM EST Friday evening so he is in the hospital for 2-1/2 days so far. The president receives criticism from many directions for the motorcade circus ride around the hospital last evening. The secret service agents are placed in danger of contracting covid. The president was only wearing a regular black mask and not a N95 or more serious mask. In addition, Trump had to get on an elevator, walk into a parking garage, etc…, spreading his coronavirus germs around the hospital grounds. Comically, Trump says he went to school on covid over the last couple days and understands the disease in detail but then jumps into a SUV and takes the motorcade ride. It’s laughable, albeit tragic. It is ridiculous that the doctors allowed Trump to leave the hospital in his infectious state. The same doctors say the president may leave the hospital today. The man should be in isolation! Would he be in isolation if he returns to the Whitehouse? The treatments involve IV drips so will doctors administer those IV’s at the Whitehouse? Trump will only release information that paints a rosy picture. The pandemic is a mess since people at the top making the rules do not follow the guidelines themselves. There are many examples of the elite class not following the coronavirus guidelines they espouse; Trump is on a joyride, Speaker Pelosi is getting her hair done, the politicians are partying without masks or social distancing at the Supreme Court nomination event in the Rose Garden, and on and on. America is the land of the have’s and have not’s; the nobility and the huddled masses. The privileged elite class live by a different set of rules than common Americans. The IHME model slightly lowers its US coronavirus death projection to 363,000 at the end of the year (see the US death chart above). The IHME says 2,900 Americans will likely be dying per week from COVID-19 as 2020 draws to an end.
Note Added Monday, 10/5/20, at 8:46 AM EST: The US political stage is set for another reality television day. Markets are expecting a stimulus bill and for President Trump to return to the Whitehouse today. US stock futures are up +0.7% across the board. S&P +21. Dow +204. VIX 28.59. Copper -1.2%. Gold 1906. New Jersey Governor Murphy says President Trump should have cancelled the fundraising event at Bedminster on Thursday.
Note Added Monday, 10/5/20, at 10:34 AM EST: The stock market rallies on news from Chief of Staff Meadows saying the decision to discharge the president will be made today. The S&P 500 Index, the US stock market, jumps 44 points, +1.3%, to 3392. The Dow Jones Industrials are up 341 points. Investors and traders expect Marine One to carry the president from Walter reed to the Whitehouse at 5 PM or 6 PM EST the reverse trip of Friday afternoon. Hollywood Donnie is great at creating television drama.
Note Added Monday, 10/5/20, at 2:50 PM EST: Trump announces via tweet that he will be leaving the hospital. The president wants out since he believes staying at the medical center makes him look weak. The tweet says; "I will be leaving Walter Reed Medical Center today at 6:30 PM. Feeling really good! Don't be afraid of Covid. Don't let it dominate your life. We have developed, under the Trump Administration, some really great drugs & knowledge. I feel better than I did 20 years ago!" The drugs are doing the talking. The reality television show is in full swing. Donnie tells people not to worry about the virus but he is receiving experimental treatments that the common American would not be provided. In addition, 215K Americans are dead and he says covid is no big deal. That is irresponsible. It must be the drugs doing the talking. Steroids, especially high-dosages, can make you behave oddly. More people around the Whitehouse contract covid including the press secretary Kayleigh McEnany. She continued interacting with people rather than isolating as the virus guidelines dictate but the Whitehouse follows different rules than everyone else. 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue is a hot zone for coronavirus and the president is heading back into the covid nest in three hours. Pelosi and Mnuchin discuss the stimulus package but there is no deal as yet. The CDC revises guidelines explaining that coronavirus can spread through airborne particles that remain in the air for minutes to hours. The stock market catapults higher on happy talk. Trump is coming out of the hospital. Perhaps a stimulus plan will occur this week. Also, Biden opens up a larger lead and Wall Street must be warming up to the idea of a democrat victory. A large stimulus bill will likely be passed if Biden wins and that would send stocks higher. Also, Wall Street likely does not care which corrupt silver-haired white guy wins the election; it does care if the election is close creating a long drawn-out contested ordeal. Biden rising in the polls says the election may be more straightforward and known on the evening of 11/3/20. The S&P 500 gains 47 points, +1.4%, to 3396 reversing Friday's loss and then some. The Dow is up 368 points to 28050. Oddly, the VIX is higher at 28.26. Volatility and stocks move opposite to each other so one of these metrics has it wrong. REGN (Regeneron antibody treatment) jumps +7.5% and GILD (Gilead's Remdesivir) leaps +3%.
Note Added Monday, 10/5/20, at 6:05 PM EST: The Trump circus continues. The presdient tweets 25 times today but never mentions the sick Whitehouse staff, his campaign manager is sick with covid, or his wife. The Walter Reed doctors, 10 dolts in white lab coats selling their souls and credibility for television notoriety, keep creating confusion. Dr Conley swings a final wrecking ball destroying his crumbling credibility by making a series of statements that make any medical professional cringe. Conley gave the president another dose of Remdesivir and says, ".... he may not be entirely out of the woods yet" but plans on sending Trump home. The statements do not make sense. Conley will not provide information on Trump's lung scans or say if he has pneumonia. He also will not discuss when Trump last tested negative for the virus. Reporters keep asking this question since the timeline does not add up and it does not make sense that Trump tested positive and only a few hours later was fighting for his life. This does not happen with covid so he likely was infected earlier and if he knew that it would be a major scandal. US futures trade marginally higher as cameras focus on the front doors of Walter Reed hoping to get a glimpse of the president returning to the Whitehouse.
Note Added Monday, 10/5/20, at 6:42 PM EST: President Trump walks out of Walter Reed in a suit and donning a mask. He gives a thumbs up and climbs into a SUV that drives him to the Marine One helicopter a couple blocks away. Trump will make a grand entrance back at the Whitehouse in about 15 minutes. Of course he will; Donnie is the consummate showman. US futures are steady showing only marginal gains. Marine One is in the air. Trump plans to remain in isolation at the Whitehouse but we will see how long that lasts. Marine One lands on the Whitehouse lawn at 6:55 PM EST. Trump walks up the steps to the Whitehouse balcony, stands facing Marine one, salutes, and the helicopter takes off. Showman Trump knows how to stage events and end today's reality television drama at 7 PM EST. A new episode begins tomorrow with new characters and hijinks at the Whitehouse as Donnie tries to remain in isolation. The steroids may have him believing that he is stronger than he actually is; hopefully that is not the case and instead he is recovered from the virus and doing better. US futures turn negative trading down marginally. Buy the rumor (Trump returning home from the hospital) and sell the news (Trump returns home).
Note Added Tuesday, 10/6/20, at 6:05 AM EST: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell continues to call for additional fiscal stimulus from the US government to supplement the Fed's ongoing monetary stimulus. Powell warns of damage to the economy if the fiscal stimulus is not provided. A couple hours later, surprisingly, Trump stops all fiscal stimulus discussions with House Speaker Pelosi with a series of tweets; "I have instructed my representatives to stop negotiating until after the election when, immediately after I win, we will pass a major Stimulus Bill that focuses on hardworking Americans and Small Business." The Dow tanks -600 points. Stocks recover off the lows the Dow and S&P 500 each losing about -1.4%. Futures turn positive in the evening. Traders know that the president is likely bloviating as usual and sure enough, after he cancels the fiscal stimulus talks, he says he is open to a separate bill that provides $1,200 to citizens and also a bill that helps the airlines. So it looks like the stimulus talks have not stopped. Trump is concerned about massive layoffs in the airline industry if stimulus is not immediately received, as he should be. Trump is on steroids and other drugs that he will not disclose, so that may be impacting his judgement. Fed's Mester says the lack of stimulus will create a much slower recovery. ECB President Lagarde says more stimulus is needed in Europe otherwise the economy faces a "cliff-edge." Three more people at the Whitehouse are infected with covid; a military aid, valet and Senior Adviser Stephen Miller, that provides Trump a lot of talking points especially the fresh red meat for the republican base. The military Joint Chiefs of Staff are all in self-isolation due to covid. The Whitehouse is an infected coronavirus nest. What a mess. Former First Lady Michelle Obama criticizes Trump saying the country is many months into the pandemic and there is still not a comprehensive plan in place. She says other countries have handled the virus better and are in better shape than the US proving the mishandling of the pandemic. It's the political season. Biden says the next debate should be scrapped if Trump has covid. Dr Conley says the president is symptom-free but the good doctor has already lost all credibility. The FDA says vaccines will likely not rollout until after the election on 11/3/20 simply due to the time required to conduct reliable studies. The one and only vice presidential debate takes place tonight in Salt Lake City, Utah. It is hyped since Trump and Biden are both older men in their 70's, one with covid, so perhaps one of the two veep's will end up as president in a couple-few years.
Note Added Wednesday, 10/7/20: The veep debate ends in a draw with both sides claiming victory. A fly sat on Pence's head for over two minutes. The remaining two presidential debates are thrown into disarray when the debate commission announces plans to hold the 10/15/20 debate virtually. Trump immediately backs out claiming that the answers will be given to Biden and the only way to debate is in person. Trump is still infected with covid and refuses to provide results of testing so any sane person would not want to be around that. The two political parties squabble. Trump will probably do a campaign rally instead on that date and Biden says he will go ahead with a town hall event. President Trump's behavior is erratic with commentators suggesting it may be due to the steroid effects. Trump releases a taped video message where he says getting the virus is a "Blessing from God." His appearance is odd. The orange bronzer he applies to his face is darker orange than usual and since his lips are whitish and pale due to the illness, it looks like he is in orange-face (blackface). His right eye is squinting and right side of his face has some type of twitch or oddity.
Note Added Thursday, 10//8/20: Over 35 people at or associated with the Whitehouse have become sick with coronavirus. 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue is a covid nest. Fauci says the Rose Garden event for the supreme court nominee was a superspreader event. The pandemic is a mess. Whitehouse security official Crede Bailey is in the hospital fighting for his life. Former New Jersey Governor and television commentator Chris Christie is in the hospital for the last few days but should be released in a day or two. The individuals sickened with COVID-19 at the Whitehouse include the president, First Lady Melania, Hope Hicks, Bill Stepien (campaign manager), Kellyanne Conway (then gives the virus to daughter Claudia), Kayleigh McEnany, Stephen Miller, Mike Lee, Thom Tillis, Ron Johnson, Ronna McDaniel, the Joint Chiefs of Staff and other military personnel, military aids, a valet, Whitehouse aids, Pastor Greg Laurie, Reverend John Jenkins, Nick Luna, debate staff, Whitehouse press reporters and others. What a mess. Trump pushes back at Fauci saying the Rose Garden event was not a superspreader event. The president needs to open his eyes; there may be people that end up dying due to that event. The fiscal stimulus bill is in disarray. Trump tweets that all talks are off, but then wants to make side deals hours later, then completely flip-flops saying he wants to make a deal. Trump is also flip-flopping on what to do about the debates. There is an obvious erratic nature to his behavior this week. Trump wants Biden and Hillary Clinton arrested for corruption during and after the last election. All these people are corrupt on all sides. Europe is in deep trouble with the second wave outbreak. The UK, France, Italy, Spain, Germany and others are hit hard with new infections climbing dramatically. France has a virus positivity test rate over 10% double the rate only one week ago. Ditto the UK. PM Johnson says that tougher measures are coming. Effective virus testing can only occur when the positivity rate is below 5% preferably lower. At a 10% positive test rate, it is impossible to keep up with the tracing with so many new infections. A state of emergency is declared in Madrid which will allow politicians to impose stricter lockdowns. The populations are becoming unruly with the lockdowns but the virus is spreading like wildfire. China's Wuhan Virus bioweapon is wreaking havoc and tragedy upon the world.
Note Added Friday, 10/9/20: The president offers $1.8 trillion in stimulus but the democrats led by Pelosi want $2.2 trillion. Speaker McConnell says a stimulus deal will not be done before the election. Americans suffer as imcompetent politicians play baby games with the election only 25 days away. Trump performs numerous long interviews on radio and television yesterday and today all on republican-leaning outlets. His throat has phlegm and he coughs so obviously there is lung congestion no matter what picture he tries to paint. The interviews are softball. He spends two hours with rightwing cheerleader Rush Limbaugh but during all these interviews no one asks when he last tested negative before he was positive. Also, why does he have so much time on his hands to shoot the breeze with interviewers? Donnie's backup plan if he loses the election is probably to have a radio show of his own, perhaps taking over for Limbaugh who is fighting cancer. Trump slams Fox News for not being more of a cheerleader for him so the commander-in-chief may want to be a talk show host-in-chief down the road. Trump proclaims that he wants a stimulus bill larger than all offers on the table (to pander votes) completely flip-flopping from stopping negotiations only a couple days ago. That qualifies as erratic behavior. In the evening, President Trump finally appears on camera doing a softball interview with republican-leaning Fox News. Trump looks good. His color is back although his right eye remains squinty. He talks a bit slower but looks good considering what he has been through during the last week. Trump says he did not have breathing problems but then says he had a sore throat and the lung images, that he will not release or the reports, he says, showed a little bit of congestion but that is cleared up. Trump still will not say when he last tested negative before the positive test probably because he does not want exposed for not being tested daily as he always proclaimed. Trump and his doctors are too vague in the way they describe his illness and will not level with the American people so the conjecture and conspiracy theories continue. The president likely had and probably still has pneumonia. Trump says he is medication free as of lunchtime Friday if you take his word for it but his credibility about his illness is under question. The president plans a Whitehouse event tomorrow where over a hundred people will attend. King Donnie plans on speaking from the Truman Balcony looking down at his loyal subjects below. Good luck to anyone planning on visiting the covid nest. Trump also plans a campaign event for Monday in Florida but the American people still do not know if he has tested negative for the virus as yet and he will not provide the information. Considering Trump's erratic behavior, it would not be surprising if these events changed again, especially if he realizes today that people may fear the virus and not want to show up to provide adoration for the king from beneath the Whitehouse balcony.
Note Added Saturday, 10/10/20: AMERICA BLEW IT AGAIN! The United States failed to flatten the active cases curve shown above. It is a sad day. This is terrible news since the hope was to finally flatten and roll the curve over to the downside creating the bell shape as explained above. Now there is nothing but more coronavirus pain ahead. Healthcare workers should not plan for the holidays since they will be working overtime. The flu season is upon us at the same time that covid is ramping up again. The active cases on Friday, 10/9/20, are 2,611,530 while the prior high is 2,601,235 on 9/1/20. After five weeks of flattening the curve, America blows it just like after Memorial Day and several other times. Yesterday, the US new cases are 60,558 not seen since the 61,313 cases on 8/14/20 two months ago. This is bad. The 7-day moving average of new cases is ramping higher. Higher and more new cases leads to more active cases, more hospitalizations and sadly, more deaths. When the economy reopens, the virus spreads, when the economy is then tamped down, the virus subsides, but then it spreads again when businesses are reopened. How does a Western nation defeat covid stopping this circle-jerk? The communists and socialists simply lockdown the population until the virus subsides. Western nations do not function that way. North Korea tin-pot dictator Kim Jong-Un appears at a pre-dawn military parade so he must not be dead or comatose. He is sweating like a pig and emotional probably due to drugs. The dictator praises the socialism system for keeping his nation totally free of coronavirus (a lie). He calls the government 'socialism' to make it sound more friendly but considering the military, like red China, and Russia, it is a filthy dirtbag communist state. President Trump invites two thousand people to the Whitehouse event today probably hoping that at least a couple hundred show up. People will come since they will take photos of themselves there and brag that they were at a Whitehouse event. President Trump conducts a campaign event (which is actually prohibited under US law) from the Truman Balcony at 2 PM EST. If you blink, you miss it. Trump only talks for 15 minutes which is the biggest surprise. He must still be weak if he cannot bloviate and pontificate for at least a couple hours. The president looks good and appears back to normal. There are no senators, representatives or other politicians in the crowd. Instead, the Blexit group, which is an activist organization trying to pull black and Latino folks into the republican party, served as the audience. They all wore blue shirts and red MAGA hats. If the Blexit group was not there, the event would not have occurred. The Trump administration actually talked with Blexit ahead of time and verified that they could send people over to the Whitehouse event so Trump extended the invitation to them. Some news sources also report that some of the Blexit people were paid and/or lodging provided. Conley, Trump's sycophant doctor, says all is well with Donnie and he is no longer transmitting virus. After the last week of the Trump/Conley obfuscation tour, few believe the news. Conley uses long-winded sentences and ten-dollar college words to describe the president's condition but none of the information is specific or concrete. It sounds like Trump is still testing positive for the virus but in small amounts but the American people are not told the truth. The IHME model now predicts 395K dead Americans from coronavirus by 2/1/20. The use of masks can reduce that number by 80KK or 90K. Former pandemic preparedness Chief Bright warns about the increases in virus cases this Fall and the country is not ready with PPE and personnel. President Trump proclaims, "It (COVID-19) is going to disappear, it is disappearing." He's delusional. As explained above, the active cases curve is now blowing-out higher and the new cases are at two-month highs and increasing. The coronavirus pandemic situation will likely become worse each day into the election a far cry from disappearing. In a couple weeks, when coronavirus is obviously not disappearing, Trump will say that he was being optimistic. America needs a leader right now not a Pollyanna.
Note Added Sunday, 10/11/20: Trump receives criticism for a campaign ad that features Dr Fauci without his permission. Fauci's comment is taken out of context. The ad is another unforced error by Trump since the American people, according to many different polls this year, trust Fauci more than Trump. Biden's lead in the polls over Trump expands to double-digits; 11%. That is, if you trust the polls. People in battleground states say they are leaning Biden because of Trump's behavior after becoming ill. Trump received a one-two punch that sent him south in the polls; first, he lost the first debate against Biden when he was supposed to effortlessly trounce Sleepy Joe (undecided voters were waiting for the debate) and second, only two days later, the president, that treats the virus as a hoax and downplays the disease by his own admission, contracts coronavirus. That was a bad look; a loser look. Trump plans his first rally tomorrow in Florida after becoming ill. Trump claims he is immune to covid now which is flagged on Twitter as misinformation. Trump brags that he forced the FDA to shorten the approval time for vaccines from years to weeks. Doctor Donnie may think this makes him look good for voters but actually, people become more leery of the vaccines each day. A few months ago, 75% of Americans polled said they would take the vaccine. A couple months ago this was down to 65% only two-thirds of the country. As vaccines are rushed, the numbers keep slipping and now only a dismal 51% of Americans plan on taking the vaccine/s. The country will not eradicate coronavirus with such lax participation. China had eradicated covid until today. There is a new outbreak in a port city. There are likely continuing outbreaks around China but the filthy communists simply muzzle the news. UK PM Johnson announces a tiered alert system for coronavirus hot zones. An Aussie laboratory says coronavirus can remain on banknotes, touchscreens and handrails, at room temperature, for weeks. Just what the world needs; more reasons to panic. The virus does not survive on surfaces with a temperature over 122 F (50 C).
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