The stock market bears got absolutely nothing until the 8 MA stabs down through the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute; this signals the beginning of downside fun. The 8 MA remains above the 34 MA indicating an ongoing short-term bull market. The SPX minute, hourly and daily charts are in negative divergence the last couple days and even with the huge gap-up move today, remain neggie d. The uber low put/call ratios signal a significant market top at hand. Ditto SPXA150R and SPXA200R. The yen is at a critical decision point.
The charts are pricing in the happy trade deal talk from yesterday and that may already be pretty much there. National Economic Advisor Kudlow's office was opining about tax cuts coming for the middle class this year, which was subsequently walked back, but it does its job in goosing stocks higher. President Trump's prior tax cut greatly benefited the wealthy class, and his own election campaign, but did little for everyday US citizens. A struggling family with a couple of kids took their four hundo bucks and spent it on two pairs of shoes and perhaps some quality meat to eat from the supermarket and that money is gone.
The wealthy elite and privileged class, however, receive about $25K in tax savings courtesy of King Trump's tax-cut for the wealthy so they turned around and wrote a check for one-third to one-half of that amount for his election campaign. This is why you hear that the republican party has lots of money in its election campaign coffers. Are you beginning to understand how the crony capitalism system functions?
The impeachment saga continues. The House walks the articles of impeachment over to the Senate in a lavish ceremony. Speaker Pelosi signed the order using several engraved pens to mark the occasion. The impeachment trial of President Trump is set to begin on Tuesday. Trump's long-winded event yesterday is also pomp and circumstance as he and Liu sign the trade deal with many pens that are distributed to the attendees. It is very clear who won yesterday's political game. The US-China trade deal was battling the impeachment proceedings for media air time and yes, you know who won. The commemorative pen makers and engravers of course.
The republicans say Americans do not want to see the president impeached. The truth is that many people are resigned to the fact that both parties, the demopublicans, and republocrats, are corrupt, so why bother paying attention to any of their baby games? Recent polls show one-half the country does want Trump impeached and removed while the other one-half does not. 70% of the country, however, are fine with Donny being impeached but not necessarily removed from office.
It is apathy that is rearing its ugly face in America. The polls are explained by apathy. People no longer have a voice in America. It is a country of republican and democrat elitists that decide how the huddled masses should exist. In simple terms, the US is split into a block of 30% die-hard democrats, 40% independents and 30% die-hard republicans. The 30% of democrats will vote for the presidential nominee of their party no matter what. Same with the 30% of republicans. Soybean Donny famously quipped that he could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and nothing would happen. He is correct; the 30% of republicans will vote for Trump no matter what.
Here is the tricky part; that 40% independent chunk in the middle that is nauseated and disgusted by both parties. The independents realize America is a rigged crony capitalism game. The democrats and republicans each need to pull that 21% or more of the 40% independents in the middle to their side to give them the victory in November. All the media messaging over the coming months will be focused on influencing the independent minds to pick one side or the other. Isn't crony capitalism fun? A few years ago, the split was 35%/30%/35%, according to Keystone's numbers that he pulls out of the air. You can see how the independent ranks grow as Americans continue dissociating themselves from the corrupt Republican and Democrat Tribes.
Interestingly, a charismatic independent leader, should she or he arrive out of nowhere, may capture the center 40% and then only need 5% from each tribe to win in November. However, there isn't any attractive independent candidate that has stepped-up as yet.
The SPX prints a new all-time record high at 3308.33. Wheeee. Whoopie. Everyday is a party day. Traders at the NYSE form a conga line and each time their butts accent the musical notes, other traders hit buy buttons for big blocks of FAANG stocks. The rhythm of the markets continues as everyone realizes stocks can grow to the sky. Irving Fisher says we are at a permanently high plateau and you never have to worry about stocks dipping below these levels ever again.
The trade deal news and happy tax-cut talk should be pretty-much priced-in. The Fed should be quiet as well so barring any positive news bites, stocks would be expected to roll over to the downside in the hourly and daily time frames. The VIX had an 11-handle this morning but now prints at 12.24.
The chart above is the SPX 30-minute still looking for the 8/34 MA negative cross to signal stock market trouble. The bulls keep partying like its 1999. The 10:30 AM candlestick just started. Bulls remain in control. Note the fake out moves on the 13th and late yesterday. The bears push the 8 MA lower threatening to stab down through the 34 MA but the bulls pop-up from nowhere and once again, punch the bears in the face.
The bulls are happy campers if the 8 MA remains above the 34 MA but once the 8 stabs down through, the bears will be happy and the bulls will have a bloody lip. The expectation is for a spankdown in price to occur going forward. The bulls are trying to keep the party going for a couple more days before it fails. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Note Added 11:20 AM EST: SPX 3304. VIX 12.26. The bulls are walking around with their chests puffed-out proudly sporting brand new "SPX 3.3K" hats on their bald noggins. Traders high-five each other and universally agree that 3400 will occur in quick order. A makeshift shrine appears in the far corner of the NYSE trading floor. A floor trader hangs a picture of Chairman Powell on the wall and flowers and gifts adorn the floor below. Traders Worship and Praise Pope Powell and the Golden Printing Press that can maintain perpetual record highs in the stock market forever.
Note Added 11:36 AM EST: SPX 3305. VIX is at the 12.21 palindrome.
Note Added 12:32 PM EST: SPX 3306.66. Price is coming up for another potential record high. VIX 12.25. Copper -0.8%.
Note Added 12:37 PM EST: SPX 3307.88. Bulls are pushing hard for another record high only 45 pennies away. SPX 3308.03 now only 30 cents away. The bulls are cheering as they guzzle Fed wine and down shots of BOJ sake. SPX 3308.12. Come on bulls. Drink some ECB champagne and buy more stocks. You are almost there. You can do it. SPX 3308.13 ..... 3308.10 ......3307.95 .... 3308.01 ..... come on bulls, you are the big shots, where's the next high in price, you should have printed it by now.... 3308.06 ..... quick, shoot the bulls with a PBOC heroin injection to make them jump higher...... 3308.00 ........... 3308.05 ....
Note Added 12:44 PM: The bulls slip on a banana peel. SPX 3307. VIX 12.24. Housing Starts are released in the morning and are uber importante. Whoa. Spurt. Spurt. SPX 3308.02. Stocks spike a hair but fall back again. Considering this battle now ongoing for a little while, the bulls need to move above 3308.33 for another new record high, otherwise, the bears are going to start puffing their chests out. The fourth 65-minute trading period begins at 12:45 PM so we will see if the trading robots want to take her down now, or not. The fifth trading segment begins at 1:50 PM and the sixth and final 65-minute trading segment for today begins at 2:55 PM. Robots may execute large block buy, or sell orders, in and around these pivots.
Note Added at 1:22 PM EST: The SPX prints a new all-time high at 3308.42.
Note Added at 1:50 PM EST: The SPX prints a new all-time high at 3309.45. Whhheeeeee. Whooopie! How lucky we are to live in a time when stocks will never go down again. Hip Hip Hooray for the Fed!.Keystone's 80/20 rule says 8's lead to 2's (on the way up) so the next day or two will tell if the bulls have enough juice to attain 3320 (after 3280 was breached). Price has breached 3308 so that hints that 3312 is on tap. The impeachment trial proceedings and pomp and circumstance begins in the Senate. Average Americans will not be paying much attention since they know all politicians inside the beltway are corrupt.
Note Added at 2:05 PM EST: The USMCA (us-meh-ka) US-Mexico-Canada trade bill finally passes Congress. It is NAFTA 2.0. President Trump has another accomplishment under his belt but the democrats will claim credit as well. Stocks spurt higher on the trade deal happy talk.
Note Added at 2:21 PM EST: Spurt. Spurt. The SPX prints a new all-time high at 3309.49. The stock market rally is in melt-up mode. Traders seek stocks with a lustful desire. No mortal can resist the upside pleasure. The decadent orgy in stocks is so obscene it would make Caligula blush.
Note Added 2:35 PM EST: SPX 3808. VIX 12.32. Interesting. Volatility is at its intraday high right now, still down slightly on the day overall. Copper -0.7%. For the SPX 30-minute chart above, the 8 MA is 3307 and the 34 MA is 3295. So the first sign of trouble for stocks would be the SPX price rolling over and going sub 3307 (this would curl the 8 MA over to the downside and point it towards the 34 MA). If the bears want it, they better start pushing hard and send the S&P 500 sub 3307; the downside would probably gather legs but the bears have to kick it into gear first. The final 65-minute trading segment begins in a few minutes so we shall see if the robots come in with sell programs, or not.
Note Added 3:50 PM EST: The SPX tags 3312 and runs to 3313.71 as the new all-time record high.
Note Added 4:00 PM EST: Stocks melt-up higher into the closing bell. Spurt. Spurt. Spurt. The S&P 500 prints the highest number in history at 3317.11 and new all-time closing high at 3316.71. Interestingly, the VIX moves out sideways, actually and oddly moving up with the SPX price to 12.30 (they should move inversely to one another). The numbers are still settling out. The bulls win. Bears have given-up and promise to never short another stock ever again. The bulls almost attained that 3320 target today (as per the 80/20 rule). Stocks are in a pure melt-up because 100% of market participants believe the Federal Reserve and other global central bankers will always save the day. Lord help us all. Protect us from this Moral Hazard we have brought upon ourselves.
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