Wednesday, January 29, 2020

CPC and CPCE Put/Call Ratios Daily Charts



It's been a sloppy topping process that continues. Stocks finally take a much-needed retreat off the parabolic highs but the dip-buyers immediately begin tripping over each other to buy stocks. Moral hazard has arrived. Everyone believes the Federal Reserve and other global central banks will print money forever to always save the stock market, and protect the wealthy class, so there is never any need to worry anymore about a big selloff in stocks. One day is brighter and more joyous than the prior. The Fed and Chairman Powell show is on tap today.

Alas, the dip-buyers are likely premature. For a tradeable bottom to appear, when there is sufficient fear and panic, doom and gloom, blood in the streets, and all that rot, the CPC should be above 1.20. Back in November there was that cheesy bottom with the lightest tap of 1.20 which then the bulls took advantage of and pumped the stock market higher through the end of the year.

The CPCE should print above 0.80 for a nice tradeable bottom to appear. You want to wait to see the traders running past you with their heads on fire, screaming bloody murder, swearing that they will never buy a stock again; it's hilarious to watch. That is when you want to buy.

Stocks are buoyant this week moving into a Fed meeting which occurs about 80%of the time and note the weakness in the market around the new moon that peaked last Friday. A couple of major quakes occur as well as the Earth and Moon were at an inflection point.

A relief rally, helped by the Fed meeting positive joy, started but the two put/call charts above tell you it will have a shelf life whether today, a couple days, or a few days; the put/call ratios likely have to dance far higher for a respectable and tradeable bottom to present itself (more fear must appear). This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 4:40 AM EST: The CPC is at 0.83, remaining subdued. Ditto the CPCE is at 0.50 printing a low. Traders and investors continue to believe that the Fed and other global central banks will always pat their behinds and save the day. There is no reason to ever worry about stocks selling off. In fact, the universal consensus anxiously awaits a pullback in equities so they can jump in with both feet on the long side. There are no bears remaining. The party continues. Conoravirus, shamoravirus. Trade, schmade. Impeachment, schmeachment. Selloff, schmelloff. Everyday is a par-tay. Fill that glass with more Fed whiskey, BOJ sake, ECB champagne and PBOC rice wine and buy stocks with reckless abandon. It's another day at Itchycoo Park where it's all too beautiful. What epic times they are.

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