SPX S&P 500 2-Minute Chart; New All-Time Record High at 3176.28; Soybean Donny Creates Stock Market Rally on Happy Trade Talk; Fibonacci Retracements

The S&P 500 prints a new all-time record high at 3176.28. S&P futures were soggy this morning on news that Apple iPhone sales may be sluggish in China. AAPL -0.8%. Also, the PBOC said they would support their economies and markets with whatever it takes (paraphrasing) which created a little angst that they may be willing to walk away from the trade deal.

But as soon as the opening bell rang, Soybean Donny tweets that the US-China trade deal is "very close. They want it, and so do we." The 'so do we' is an uncharacteristic phrase for Donny so it sticks out like a sore thumb. It sounds like King Trump wants the deal as bad as Dictator Xi. Surprisingly, the US may cut the existing tariffs by 50% and cancel the tariffs that are supposed to go into effect on Sunday, 12/15/19. This sounds like a large concession so America must be receiving safeguards on IP theft, forced transfer of technology, as well as the deal having enforcement mechanisms worked out. Details will have to be announced within a couple days since the tariff deadline is on Sunday.

The bulls take the trade ball toss from President Trump and run down field sending stocks higher. The stock market complacency increases daily. Timmy Trader confesses that he does not even pay attention to the companies he picks to go long anymore; he simply picks some letters and buys that ticker symbol since everything goes up all the time. Isaac the investor is slurring his speech due to too many shots of BOJ sake but is coherent enough to say that everyone should go long the market since stocks always go up and even if a selloff occurs, the central banks will step in to save the day and pump them higher again. The Fed wine and ECB champagne are flowing like water on trading floors everywhere. Have another drink Isaac.

The chart shows the big pop on President Trump's proclamations that he wants a trade deal, so does China, and the deal is very close. Unfortunately, this is the 58th time (joking) he has made similar promises. Price pops to the new record high but then the wind comes out of the sails. The SPX comes back down, through the 38% Fib retracement and now bouncing around at the 50% Fib at 3157 deciding to bounce, or die. Stocks trade for another 3-1/2 hours today, and the regular 6-1/2 hours tomorrow and that is it before the Sunday tariff deadline. Tic, toc.

Soybean Donny promises a joyous trade deal. The stock market now expects a bright shiny trade deal under the Christmas tree either tomorrow morning or Saturday morning. The market had better receive its bright shiny trade deal. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 12:42 PM EST: The SPX takes out the 50% Fib so it ventures to the 62% Fib at 3152, but bounces, then back up through the 50% Fib again now printing at 3159. The 38% Fib is at 3161 so it will be important to see if price has the juice to go above 3161, or not. The VIX is at 14.666 below the critical 15.12-15.20 bull-bear line in the sand so the bulls are celebrating. Bears need the VIX above 15.20 or they got absolutely nothing. The move higher in yields is sharp. 10-year yield 1.89%. UTIL -0.4%. Copper flat. Euro 1.1113. USD 97.40. 

Note Added 1:18 PM EST: The SPX is bumping around 3161 deciding to bounce or die.